The Saberoticians - Fantasy Baseball Advice

THT Fantasy Focus

2007-05-27T17:01:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone!
Well, The Hardball Times Fantasy Focus is now up and running! From now on, I'll be posting over there. Continue sending me your questions; I enjoy answering them. I appreciate all of your support this season, and I hope you continue reading over at THT. You can find it on the THT home page, or you can follow this link: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/

Thanks again everyone!

Derek Carty

Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part IV

2007-05-26T21:41:00.000-05:00

OK. Time for the finale of this feature. We'll now look at the long-term potential of these guys. Keep in mind, I haven't done extensive research into which types of minor leaguers tend to become good major leaguers, and these rankings are very rough. They represent the order in which I, if in a keeper league, would probably keep them being forced to choose now. Without further ado...

Keeper League Rankings
1. Alex Gordon
1a. Kevin Kouzmanoff
2. Ryan Braun
2a. Edwin Encarnacion
3. Akinori Iwamura
4. Andy LaRoche
5. Mark Reynolds

Alright. I hope you enjoyed this feature today. I'll be back tomorrow with the Waiver Wire for both leagues and possibly something else.

Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part III

2007-05-26T16:50:00.001-05:00

Alright. Throughout the day I've analyzed some of the Top Young Third Basemen in the majors. Now, I'll rank these guys in the order I think you should pick them up if you are in need of a 3B/CI. First will be short-term rankings. Please keep in mind that rookies are the toughest players to predict because we are basing these predictions on easily compromised minor league numbers and speculation. A guy like Ryan Braun could hit for a good average if his 2007 AAA numbers carry over, but as this is somewhat unlikely, I'm not going to count on him hitting .300 for me.

Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.

Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.

One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.

2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB

Long-term rankings will come tonight!

Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part II

2007-05-26T12:26:00.001-05:00

Alright, I'm back to look at another set of Young 3B that might be on your Waiver Wire. We'll get right to it.

Edwin Encarnacion - I've talked about Edwin a lot over the past month or so. In 2007, so far, Edwin has an 82.8% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 20.8% LD rate. In 2006, he had an 80.8% Contact rate, a 9.2% BB rate, and a 21.1% LD rate in 406 ABs. In 2005, he had a 71.6% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 25.2% LD rate in 211 ABs. His LD and BB rates might improve just a bit, and his Contact rate should remain steady. These numbers don't translate to a .224 BA, and given an opportunity he should turn things around. A .280 BA seems like a good estimate.

He's only hit 1 HR so far in 2007, but it went a True Distance of 402 feet. In 2006, he hit 8 of his 15 HRs past 400 feet. According to HitTracker, he had a 4.00 No Doubt-to-Just Enough ratio, meaning he was a good bet to improve his HR total. I still see 30 HR power out of Edwin eventually, and if he can play fulltime once Josh Hamilton returns (which might be unlikely) he could be good for 20-25 HRs this year. His FB% is up to 42.7% and his GB% is down to 36.5%.

The Reds lineup is good, but it would be better if it was better managed. If he plays and hits in the middle of the order, Edwin should get plenty of RBIs and Runs, but we're looking at a big IF. I mean, the Reds were batting Adam Dunn 6th behind Jeff Conine and Alex Gonzalez some games and are giving Nick Hopper and Juan Castro far too many ABs.

Mark Reynolds - Hasn't been in the majors long, but has made a major splash in the time he has been. So far, he has a 81.1% Contact rate, a 7.5% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate in 37 ABs. He's hit 3 HRs so far, and they've gone True Distances of 371, 405, and a whopping 459 feet.

Here are his Minor League numbers across several levels:
2005 | Low-A | 431 ABs | 77.4% Contact | 7.4% BB | 13.7% LD | 19 HR
2006 | High-A | 273 ABs | 77.6% Contact | 12.7% BB | 17.2% LD | 23 HR
2006 | Double A | 114 ABs | 71.9% Contact | 8.7% BB | 14.5% LD | 8 HR
2007 | Triple A | 134 ABs | 76.1% Contact | 12.9% BB | 20.6% LD | 6 HR

We see that his Major League numbers this year don't seem to be entirely sustainable. His Contact rate should fall to perhaps 75%, but his BB rate might stay level and his LD% might only drop a percentage point. His power is legit, and if he were to be a starter for the rest of the season he could get up to 25 HRs. His .519 BABIP will drop, as will his .459 BA, and it should settle somewhere near .260-.265. The Dan Uggla comparisons people draw seem to be pretty accurate.

The D'Backs lineup is very good, so he will get plenty of RBIs and Runs, especially if he keeps batting 4th and 5th. That they are comfortable hitting him there indicates they would like find him ABs even after Chad Tracy gets back. That may prove, though, with all of the quality hitters in their lineup. He might end up as a 3-4 game per week guy if they keep him in the majors.

Ryan Braun - Braun isn't a guy I was able to buy into the hype of until this year (to a certain extent). A highly touted prospect of the Brewers, Braun's call up was announced on Thursday. Let's first look at his minor league numbers.

2005 | Low-A | 152 ABs | 79.3% Contact | 5.5% BB | 25.6% LD | 8 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | High-A | 226 ABs | 79% Contact | 8.9% BB | 11.6% LD | 7 HRs | 14 SBs
2006 | Double A | 231 ABs | 78% Contact | 82.% BB | 12.3% LD | 15 HRs | 12 SBs
2007 | Triple A | 109 ABs | 90.8% Contact | 10.7% BB | 22.2% LD | 9 HRs | 4 SBs

We see that up until 2007, Braun's numbers were very mediocre. Where did this spike come from in 2007? Did he change something? Did he just get lucky? And most importantly, how will these numbers translate to the majors? Honestly, it's a tough call. His Contact rate could be anywhere from 75% to 90%. His BB rate could be anywhere from 5% to 8%. His LD rate (yikes) could be anywhere from 12% to 23%. Let's say that he settles at around this level: 80% Contact, 7% BB, and 18% LD. That would mean a BA around .270-.275. He might be able to hit dozen HRs the rest of the way, but he also has a little bit of speed. He could end up with 12-15 SBs, which is where a lot of his value comes from. Not many third baggers can steal 15 bases.

The Brewers lineup is good. Braun batted second last night, a spot that would provide a good numbers of runs and a fair number of RBIs.

Andy LaRoche - The Dodgers' top 3B prospect was called up on May 6 and has been a flop thus far. He's hitting with a 89.2% Contact rate, a 29.2% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate. Despite these good numbers, he has just a .233 BABIP and a .206 BA. He has yet to hit a HR. These numbers will certainly improve.

Here are his minor league numbers:
2005 | High-A | 249 ABs | 84.7% Contact | 7.1% BB | 21 HRs | 6 SBs
2005 | Double A | 227 ABs | 76.2% Contact | 12.4% BB | 9 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | Double A | 230 ABs | 86.1% Contact | 15.1% BB | 9 HRs | 6 SBs
2006 | Triple A | 202 ABs | 84.2% Contact | 11.0% BB | 10 HRs | 3 SBs

In 2007, he had a 85.7% Contact rate, a 10.1% BB rate, and a 12.9% LD rate. He also hit 3 HRs in 98 ABs. I expect LaRoche to definitely pick up the pace shortly. His Contact rate might drop to 84%, and his BB rate will certainly drop, possibly to 9-10%. We don't have much to base his LD rate on (not available for 2005 and 2006 on MinorLeagueSplits.com), but 19% is modest enough where it could remain stable. Those numbers could give LaRoche a .275-.280 BA. He also might be good for 12 HRs and 5 SBs. He's been hitting between 6th and 9th in the Dodgers lineup, so RBIs and Runs won't be as plentiful if he continues to hit towards the back. The Dodgers lineup is deep though, and even batting 7th or 8th should give LaRoche a decent number of RBIs.

And that's it. We'll rank these guys a little bit later based on, as one reader requested, short-term and long-term potential.

Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part I

2007-05-26T10:54:00.000-05:00

Terrible, terribly sorry for the scarcity of posts this week. I'll try to make up for it today. Right now, let's take a look at the young third basemen that are quite possibly on your waiver wire if you're in a shallow or moderately deep league. I've been asked about a few of them over the past couple days, so hopefully this post will answer all of those questions.

I'll first take a look at each player's stats in the majors this year, and then we'll see if they mesh with his minor league numbers. I'll look at 3 guys now, the rest in a couple of hours, and then provide a list ranking them later this afternoon.

Alex Gordon - Picked by many as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite back in March, Gordon has disappointed those people so far. Let's look at his prospects for the rest of the year. He has a 71% Contact rate, a 9.9% BB rate, and a 22.7% LD rate. His BB and LD stats translate to better than a .252 BABIP, although his low Contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a very high BABIP. It should increase to maybe .250 or .260, but if he keeps striking out it won't get much higher. Gordon has only hit 3 HRs so far, but each has had a True Distance over 400 ft according to HitTracker.

In 2006, he had an 80% Contact rate, 12.5% BB rate, and a 16.3% LD rate in Double A. Judging by that, there is a decent chance he could see an improved contact rate, which would help his average. I don't see his BB rate getting too much higher this year, but it is at a respectable level. He hit 29 HRs and 40 2Bs and 3Bs, and combined with the power he's shown this year I'd say Gordon is in for a power surge the rest of the year. I'd say 18-20 HRs is a possibility. The Royals lineup is better than advertised, so Gordon should get some RBIs and a decent number of Runs if he can move up a spot or two.

Akinori Iwamura - Coming off the DL next week, Iwamura was a beast in April. He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. Those numbers are bound to come down, but even if he ends up with an 11% BB rate and 22% LD rate Iwamura could hit .285-.290. He also stole three bases, and after saying preseason that he was aiming for 40, I think he could still grab 20 or 25 by year's end. He also said he wanted 20 HRs, and his only one in April went a True Distance of 414 feet.

We'll look at Iwamura's Japanese numbers since this is his first year in America. In 2006, he had a 77% Contact rate and an 11.3% BB rate. In 2005, he had a 73.5% K rate and a 10.2% BB rate. For his career he had a 75.5% Contact rate and a 9.3% BB rate. Judging by that, I'd say his Contact rate is bound to drop into the high 70s and his BB rate might finish around 9 or 10%. With those numbers (and a 22% LD rate), Iwamura could hit .275 or .280. He had 44, 30, and 32 HRs, respectively, in 2004, 2005, and 2006, so 15 or 20 might be a possibility for this year. The D'Rays lineup is pretty good, and if he bats 6th again he should get his share of RBIs. His walks and a decent back of the order will help him get a few Runs.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff was an early favorite for Rookie of the Year, except in the NL. Also like Alex Gordon, he got off to a slow start. So far in 2006, he has a 75% Contact rate, 7.7% BB rate, and 20.2% LD rate. So-so, unspectacular numbers. The good news is that they can improve. The other good news is that he's got some power. He's hit 4 HRs so far (excluding his one last night), and they had True Distances of 378, 391, 429, and 447 feet. Seems like he can hit the ball a good distance.

In 244 Double AA At-Bats, Kouzmanoff had an 87.7% Contact rate, 8.3% BB rate, and an 18.4% LD rate. In 100 AAA At-Bats, he had an 89.3% Contact Rate, 8% BB rate, and a 23.3% LD rate. Judging by these, I'd say his Contact Rate should improve and his BB and LD rates seem about right. Since May 14th, he's had an 82.8% Contact Rate, so I think he is well on his way to becoming the player I expected him to be preseason. He had 15 HRs in AA and 6 HRs in AAA, so I think 20 HRs in the majors is pretty likely. The Padres lineup is good (although Brian Giles is DL bound), and if Kouzmanoff can get himself up a few spots he should be fine with RBIs and get a decent amount of Runs.

OK. In an hour or two I'll post about a few more 3B, including Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Braun. Later this afternoon, I'll post a list ranking these guys.

Iwamura to Return Monday

2007-05-23T19:56:00.000-05:00

Akinori Iwamura has been playing in rehab games recently, and could potentially come off the Disabled List on Monday. When he does, he will most likely resume his role as the Devil Rays' everyday third basemen.

"He's doing very well," manager Joe Maddon said. "He hasn't felt any pulling sensation in his side."

Iwamura was a guy I liked a lot in the beginning of the season (and even picked up in one league, although he surprisingly went on the DL the next day). He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. While the BB rate and LD% should drop, as long as they don't go too far Iwamura could hit over .300. He also had 3 SBs and could get 20 or 25 if he doesn't get injured again. He only had 1 HR, but it had a True Distance of 414 feet, according to HitTracker. He could end up with 15 HRs. The D'Rays' lineup is good, so Iwamura should also get plenty of RBIs and Runs.

If you need a 3B, Iwamura seems like he can help you in every category. Now's the time to pick him up.

Oakland Closer Update

2007-05-23T12:26:00.000-05:00

Sorry I didn't post yesterday guys; things were crazy around here.

Anyway, Justin Duchscherer joined Huston Street on Oakland's DL today. It's safe to drop Duke in leagues where setup men are worthless. So who is the guy to own in Oakland?

It seems that Alan Embree is the guy to own, as Manager Bob Geren said that he will be used in "more cases than not." Kiko Calero and crew might steal a save here or there, but it seems Embree will get the majority of them while Street is out. So what should we expect out of Embree?

Strangely, his K rate has been quite unstable, but I think his current 6.87 K/9 seems about right. His 2.45 BB/9 also seems about right, giving Embree a K/BB of 2.80. Very solid. His 31.1% GB rate is down 10 percentage points from his average since 2002, and if he can't get it back up he'll blow some saves by giving up the longball. I expect it to increase though, so no worries there. Overall, Embree is a solid option as long as Street is out. He should be owned in all leagues.

Barry Zito: Fantasy Disappointment?

2007-05-23T12:09:00.001-05:00

You know Barry Zito. Former member of the Oakland "Big Three." Part of a rock band. Used to go out with Alyssa Milano. Known for his 12-6 curveball. Signed with the Giants for $126 million. Yeah... that guy. Did you also know that he has a 3-5 record and a 5.13 ERA? If you follow baseball, chances are you did. So why is the highest paid pitcher in baseball putting up numbers like Steve Trachsel? Well, honestly, because they have a similar skill level.

Hopefully you read my Preseason Analysis of Barry Zito and didn't draft him. If you did, you've got a big problem on your hands. In that article I mentioned how Zito has only an average K rate (6.50 K/9), an unimpressive BB rate (3.50 BB/9), and a poor GB rate (38%). Has the move to the National League changed anything for Zito? Let's take a look.

4.97 K/9
4.64 BB/9
38.0% GB
.263 BABIP
0.83 HR/9

Well, it seems his K rate and his BB rate is worse than it has been in the past. I didn't see a K rate close to 7.0 as terribly unlikely, seeing as how he'll get to throw to pitchers in the NL, but we've actually seen a decrease in Ks. I expect this to increase at least to his career levels, but even that will only be around average. His BB rate should decrease a little, but I don't see it getting much lower than 4.00. His GB percentage is perfectly in line with his career numbers, so no change should happen there.

We see that Zito is actually getting lucky when we look at his BABIP and HR/9 numbers. The BABIP should be up nearly .040 points, and the HR/9 does not reflect his low BB rate. It should jump above 1.00 shortly.

While I don't expect Zito to finish the year with an ERA above 5.00, don't expect it to get much lower than 4.50. I said the Giants made a mistake, and I'm sticking by that statement. I can't say how glad I am the Mets didn't shell out even the $80 million they reportedly offered him. If you own Zito and someone in your league still thinks he is good, dump him. Otherwise, wait for his ERA to drop below 5.00 and take the best offer you get.

A Look at Mike Mussina

2007-05-21T20:17:00.000-05:00

Mike Mussina was a player I liked a lot in the preseason, but he has since been a disappointment for Fantasy Baseball owners. He went down early in the year to a hamstring injury, and in his time on the field has been less than inspiring. His line so far looks like this:
22.1 IP
4.03 K/9
2.01 BB/9
31% GB

His career numbers look like this:
7.19 K/9
2.02 BB/9
42.1% GB (since 2002)

We see that his BB rate has been pretty consistent with his career line, and I don't expect to see much of a change in that area. His K rate is very alarming though. It is down more than 3 points from it's career average. His GB rate is down more than 10 percentage points from his career average. Coming into the season I loved Mussina and hated Chien-Ming Wang, but if Mussina keeps up these numbers Wang might be the better bet (that is not an OK to go trade for Wang).

While I expect the GB rate to increase, I'm not quite sure why the K rate is like that. I thought maybe it had to do with the injury, so I took a look at his games since coming back from the DL to see if he has improved.

5.0 IP 3 K 0 BB 33% GB
6.0 IP 2 K 1 BB 35% GB
5.1 IP 1 K 0 BB 35% GB

No such luck there. So why is Mussina struggling? Honestly, I have no idea. He is 38 years old, and this might have something to do with it.

So what do you do with Mussina? He is owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues now, and if he were dropped in any league where I needed pitching, I would probably pick him up and sit him for another few starts. I have a hard time seeing Mussina posting a 4.00 K/9 come September, and even if he can get it up to 6.00 he should be a Top 25 pitcher with his great control and decent GB rate (assuming it gets back to its normal level, which it should). If you can trade for him cheaply and you need pitching, you might want to consider doing it. There are safer options that might come at the same price. Philip Hughes might be back in a month, and Yovanni Gallardo might be coming up in a few weeks. Jamie Shields might still be considered a fluke and come at a discount. Dave Bush, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett are also some good guys to buy on. All said, Mussina could pay nice rewards, but there is some risk involved.

Exciting News!

2007-05-21T15:54:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone!

I've got some very exciting news! I was contacted a few days ago by Dave Studeman of the Hardball Times. He told me that the Hardball Times is interested in starting up Fantasy Baseball content, more specifically a blog. He asked me if I would be interested in writing for it, and I couldn't pass up a fantastic opportunity like this to write for one of my favorite baseball sites.

So, sometime in the not-so-distant future, we'll be relocating over to the Hardball Times. I'll mostly be writing about the same stuff I've been writing about here, and there will be a few other Hardball Times writers contributing to the blog as well. I know for a fact that David Gassko will be contributing, and I've been told a few of their other writers are interested as well.

While this is a pretty big change, I don't think anything will be fundamentally different. Once the change is made, you'll simply be reading my stuff in a different location, and you'll also get the insights of a few other great baseball minds. For those of you that I have regular email contact with, that won't change either. Continue sending me your questions, and I will be more than happy to continue giving you my opinions.

Anyway, I'm not sure when the shift will occur, and I'll continue posting here until it does. When it does occur, I'll be sure to let you know. Thanks everyone for your support, and I look forward to continuing a good year with you all!

Derek Carty

Buy Low Candidate: Jason Giambi

2007-05-21T13:21:00.000-05:00

There's a lot surrounding Jason Giambi right now, which makes it a good time to buy low on him. To start, he's only batting .268 after hitting .253 last year. He hasn't hit over .300 since his first year with the Yankees in 2002. In addition, he has only hit 5 HRs through nearly two months of the season.

Next, he's having trouble with a bone spur in his left heel. This is the problem I am most concerned with. This problem has kept him out of Yankee Interleague games being played in NL parks so far. Not healthy enough to play first base, Giambi has been relegated to sitting on the bench.

To top it all off, Giambi all but admitted on Friday to using steroids. His comments have allowed speculation to run rampant among reporters and speculators. Some have said that Giambi could be suspended. As far as I know, however, players can only be suspended if they have used steroids since 2005. Others have said that the Yankees might try and terminate Giambi's large contract. Again, this seems doubtful at best. George Steinbrenner cares about one thing: winning. He doesn't care how much money it costs or how ethically he does it (i.e. he doesn't care if Giambi used steroids a couple years ago); he just wants to win. Giambi can help him do that. Giambi is one of the best players in baseball, and to think Steinbrenner will give him up so he can save a few bucks just doesn't seem to be a likely scenario.

So where does all this leave Giambi's fantasy value? In the gutter. Honestly, it's already probably slipped through the gutter cracks and is being swept away down a sewage pipeline of grime. That makes this the best time to take advantage.

Preseason, I expected Giambi to hit around 45 HRs judging by his HitTracker numbers. While his power hasn't been very impressive so far, and he has yet to hit a ball with a True Distance over 400 feet, I have to think that the power is still in there and will come out soon. His 78% Contact rate is the best it's been since it was 80% in his 2002 season (the last season he hit over .300). His BB rate is down from its gargantuan 20% in 2005 and 2006, but 14% still ranks among the best in baseball. His career BB rate is 16.2%, so an increase is likely. His LD Percentage is a respectable 18.8%. All in all, I think his selectivity will allow him to hit .280. Plus, he hits for the Yankees, so a lot of RBIs and Runs should be a given.

My biggest concern with Giambi is his foot. I wish I knew a little more about how certain injuries affect players, but if you can get Giambi for cheap I think this is a risk that is well worth taking. If you get Giambi, just make sure you have a capable backup in case he can't play in the next Yankee NL Interleague series. A guy like Dan Johnson would be more than adequate. Conor Jackson would work too.

A Look at Tim Lincecum

2007-05-20T20:53:00.000-05:00

Alright, so Tim Lincecum has pitched in 3 games so far, and today the Giants confirmed that he will remain in the starting rotation once Russ Ortiz returns from the DL. Ortiz will move to the bullpen and should become obsolete for Fantasy Baseball purposes. So what should we expect from Lincecum for the rest of the year?

His season line looks like this, through 3 starts:
10.31 K/9
3.44 BB/9
45.7% GB rate

Here is the breakdown of his three starts:
4.1 IP 5 K 5 BB 33% GB
7.0 IP 6 K 1 BB 57% GB
7.0 IP 10 K 1 BB 38% GB

His K/BB has improved every start, and he seems to have shown that he can wrack up the strikeouts even at this level. His GB has fluctuated, but I think it could settle in at around 48%. That, combined with his high Ks alone makes him an above average pitcher. The main concern with Lincecum coming up was his control. If he came up and started walking a lot of batters, he wouldn't be worth a roster spot in a lot of leagues. However, he has walked just two batters in his last 14 IPs, so this may not be an issue.

We are looking at a small sample size here, but for now I think Lincecum looks like a keeper. If he can keep his BB rate steady, he could end up being a Top 12-15 Starting Pitcher. In the leagues I own him, I'm hanging tight.

Waiver Wire - National League

2007-05-20T13:42:00.001-05:00

OK. Here's the National League Waiver Wire for this week.

National League

Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.

Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.

Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn't been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.

Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven't been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg's numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I've had a few questions on him this week, so I'll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn't have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he's had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves's go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I'll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.

Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn't a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it's tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He's got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren't very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He's in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Waiver Wire - American League

2007-05-19T15:14:00.000-05:00

Today we'll go over the American League Waiver Wire, and tomorrow we'll do the National League.

American League

Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland 'pen. The A's say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he's available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven't affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you've forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We're going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I'm still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion's void in one league, and I'll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He's got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don't get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won't be as valuable, but there's a good chance that won't happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.

Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He's a tough one to predict, but he'll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It'll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.

Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS's Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I'm not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it's at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won't hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn't have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.

Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he'll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he's a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.

Garrett Atkins Analysis

2007-05-19T11:08:00.000-05:00

Sorry it took so long to write this up, but here it is. Garrett Atkins is one of my favorite 3B trade targets right now. First let's go over the power. In the preseason it would have been easy to predict a small power increase from Atkins, and 35 HRs were a distinct possibility. So far, he has only hit 2 HRs. They have had True Distances of 389 and 396, according to HitTracker. Not great, but decent. While it is possible he won't hit a lot of HRs, I think it is likely that he will bust out sometime soon and become the player I thought he would be. His Flyball Percentage is up to 48% (from 41% in 2006), which adds a little further support to the prediction that he will soon begin to be a serious power threat.

So what about the .240 Batting Average? I see this increasing as well. His Contact Rate is at 83.5%, which is down from his 87.3% of last year, but still respectable. I think it is fairly likely once Atkins shakes this funk his Contact Rate will improve a bit. His BB rate is only down a little from last year, and 11% is still quite good. With selectivity like that you'd expect Atkins to be converting his balls in play into hits at a better rate than his .275 BABIP indicates. His BABIP last year was .340 with a 11.6% BB rate. LD Percentage also has an effect on this, and his LD rate is also only down a little from 2006. It is at 20.8% now, down from 22% in 2006.

Overall, it seems like Atkins's contact hitting numbers are down across the board, but only by a little bit. Even if they remain as they are, they are still better than a .240 BA. I expect them to improve a little though, and his BA should rise significantly. Preseason I though a BA above .300 was very likely, and I still feel Atkins can achieve this mark.

The Colorado lineup is decent, so Atkins should be able to score a good number of RBIs and Runs. Tulowitski's BA should improve and he walks a lot. Taveras is a good contact hitter and he is surprisingly walking a lot too. Holliday has established himself as a good hitter. Helton's days as a serious power threat are gone, but he is a fantastic contact hitter who walks a ton. Plenty of RBI opportunities for Atkins once he shapes up.

If he could squeeze himself into the 3rd or 4th spot he'd be in a perfect spot for a lot of RBIs and Runs with Tulowitski and Taveras ahead and Holliday and Helton behind. If he stays batting 5th, the guys behind him are only OK, but his high BB rate should still be able to keep his Run total up.

So there you have an analysis of Garrett Atkins. Overall, I'd say if you can get him cheap, definitely do it. I still think he will be considered one of the Top 3 or 4 Fantasy Baseball 3B by year's end. He has all the tools to do it, now he just has to.

Buying and Selling

2007-05-18T15:05:00.000-05:00

Another Buy Low / Sell High day. This will usually come on Wednesday's, but I didn't get a chance to write it up this Wednesday.

Buy Low
Garrett Atkins - I'll run a full post on Atkins later today, but he is probably my favorite Buy Low 3B target right now.

Kenny Lofton - Fantastic Contact rate, good Walk rate, and a lot of speed. His LD rate is at 11%, which is a little worrisome, but I see Lofton as a cheaper Juan Pierre. He should hit .300 if the LD rate picks up, will steal a lot of bases (35 is a definite possibility... maybe more), won't hit many HRs (less than 5), will score a lot of Runs atop the Rangers lineup, and get a modest number of RBIs. If you need SBs or a quality CF in somewhat deep leagues, Lofton makes a good target.

Ian Kinsler - If his owner is panicking with the slow May, jump on Kinsler. Will be a starting quality 2B the rest of the way. 85% Contact and 10% BB rates are good, and his 16% LD rate should increase. A .194 BABIP will surely increase, and a BA around .290 seems likely. He's got a little bit of speed, and while it looks like he hit more than his share of HRs in April, he still has some power. He could hit another 15-20 the rest of the way.

Frank Thomas - Power last year looked legit using Hit Tracker's ND/PL/JE system, and he has been crushing balls this year. Hasn't hit any Just Enoughs yet, so expect his power to really pick up soon. Owners might be getting impatient, and his .236 BA doesn't help things. His BB rate is still fantastic and his Contact rate - like last year - is above 80%. LD percentage is down a little, but I'd still bank on Thomas putting it back together. Hits in a good lineup. Now with him sitting during Interleague Play might be the best time to pounce on angry owners.

Jeremy Bonderman - 5.71 K/BB rate is fantastic and his 43% GB rate is pretty good. Much better than his 4.20 ERA indicates. His recent injury might be just the push his owner needs to trade him. While I am no medical expert, a cut on his pitching hand doesn't sound like it will have any long-term effects.

Dave Bush - Mentioned before on here, but his ERA is still over 5.00. A K rate just under 7.00 and a K/BB of 4.75 deserves some credit. Buy on Bush before he starts putting up the surface numbers. He should be a Top 25 SP in 2007.

Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - I feel obligated to continue putting Zambrano on here. His BB/9 is still 4.47 and this just won't do. Keep away.

Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train won't improve too much with a K/BB under two. His K rate has always been mediocre, and his BB rate is at the worst point of his career. It's likely it'll improve a little, but Dontrelle isn't the pitcher a lot of people think he is.

Chien-Ming Wang - I mentioned him in this spot when he came off the DL, and I'll put him here again. Strikes out too few players to be a very good pitcher, and the lack of Ks will kill you in most Fantasy Baseball formats. BB rate has improved, and his K/BB is over 2.00, but the 3.48 K/9 is just too much to overcome

Josh Barfield - The 7th 2B taken, on average, in preseason expert drafts, Barfield has seriously underproduced these expectations. He didn't hit a single No Doubt HR last year, according to Hit Tracker, so his lack of power so far is no surprise. His BA might increase a little, but all of his vitals are down from last year. Contact rate is at 75%, BB rate is at 3.7%, and his LD rate is at 14.3%. These should improve a little, but don't expect a repeat of 2006... at least not in 2007.

Sell High
Matt Cain - Surface numbers are starting to catch up to his peripherals, but his 0.35 HR/9 and .233 BABIP are both much lower than they should be. Sell while you can.

Tim Hudson - Hey, Tim Hudson is back to his old A's self! You might here this from one of your leaguemates, but you won't from me. His 1.77 BB/9 is the lowest of his career, and it is unlikely to last. He's never had a great K rate, and once the walks increase he should fall back into mediocrity. His 0.27 HR/9 and .243 are too low as well and will surely increase. Get rid of Hudson.

Brad Penny - The 57% GB rate is much higher than his career average and will probably drop a good amount. His K/BB is just 1.83, and while this may increase I don't see it getting to a level that can sustain his peripherals. He hasn't allowed a HR yet (partly as a result of the high GB rate). Not a good bet to keep up these kinds of numbers.

B.J. Upton - While I like the BB rate, his Contact Rate is so low it makes it nearly impossible to keep a BA above .260-ish. Power should slow down a little bit too, but he could hit 20-25 HRs. Pretty good lineup will allow him to get some RBIs and Runs, but his value right now exceeds his skill level. Sell on him.

Don't Sell High
Ian Snell - Has a chance to regress, but it is equally as likely Snell is the real deal. His 2.89 BB/9 rate is lower than previous years, but third year starting pitchers are known for improved stats. He has a solid K rate (7.30) and if he can keep his BB rate up he should be a useful pitcher. His 45% GB rate is good, although he hasn't allowed as many HRs as he should. Might be overacheiving a bit, but Snell is a keeper unless you can rip someone off.

Dan Haren - He's getting lucky, but he is still a very good pitcher. I had him ranked Top 15 in the preseason and I stand by this assessment. A 3.43 K/BB is very good, and his 41% GB rate should even see an increase. Like with Snell, keep Haren unless you can rip someone off.

Torii Hunter - Power seems legitimate, even if his BA is not. 25-30 HRs is a good possibility. Matains a Contact rate above 80%, but his BB rate is down to 3%. That should increase, though, back to his usual 7-8%. LD rate is in line with his career average, which is below average. SBs could have been predicted preseason if you knew that he got over a leg injury that had plagued him for a couple of years late last season and stole 6 bases in September (or at least that's what my friend who's a Twins fan told me). I expect him to keep stealing bases.

Orlando Hudson - He has a good Contact rate, a good Walk rate, and a little bit of speed. Should keep up his BA. He's hitting in the middle of a great lineup, and has a little bit of power (though he is overachieving in that department so far in 2007). Should be good for maybe another 8 HRs from here on out. Will get his fair share of RBIs and Runs if he can keep his lineup spot.

Prince Fielder - This man has some serious power. Don't expect him to slow down much in that area. His Contact Percentage isn't great and his LD percentage isn't either, but his BB rate is pretty good and he could wind up posting a pretty solid average (which will be based a decent amount on his HRs).

More on Pitchers and BABIP

2007-05-18T12:52:00.000-05:00

Alright. We seemed to have a good response to the post on pitchers, hitability, and BABIP when I posted it two days ago. I'll now go over some of these comments and some mistaken assumptions that I made.

The first of these assumptions was that league average BABIP is .290. I'm not sure why I was under this impression (I must have read it incorrectly somewhere), but it seems that league average BABIP is generally closer to .300. This changes a lot of what I said and a lot of the assumptions that I had made about BABIP.

After reading up on BABIP this morning at the Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and the Diamond Mine, it seems that pitchers can have an affect on how many hits they give up, but that this effect is quite small and much of this effect can be explained by their DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics - K/9, BB/9, and GB rate).

Pitchers can, in fact, affect their hits per ball in play a little bit, but at this time there is no statistic that can truly capture this skill. For now, DIPS is the best means we have of predicting future performance. Future performance can also be roughly predicted by looking at BABIPs that stray significantly from league average (such as Jason Marquis's .206 BABIP) and realizing that at some point it will regress to a point much closer to the league average.

Now we'll take a look at some of the comments people had about the previous post on this subject. One reader mentioned the exclusion of HRs and how this can skew BABIP because a lot of HRs are balls that are hit so well that they would be considered hits if left in the field of play. I can come up with a couple of reasons why I'm not overly concerned about their exclusion.

as they are more a result of a pitcher's tendency to give up The first is that HRs have a very strong correlation with Groundball rate. The more GBs a player induces, the less HRs that player should give up. (This is a subject I'll talk a little more about in the not so distant future, but this is the primary reason why I talk a lot about GB rate when analyzing pitchers.) Because this is the case, I don't really have a problem excluding HRs. I see a high HR rate as more a result of a pitcher giving up a lot of flyballs than it is of his ability to limit hits.

Roughly 90% of HRs are flyballs. If - hypothetically - the field of play were extended another couple hundred feet (and outfielders were fast enough to cover this entire area at the same efficiency they cover current outfields) these flyballs would still be caught at the same 78% that normal, non-HR flyballs are caught at now. Of course that notion is absurd, but I think it shows that HRs are mostly just farther traveling flyballs, which we've already established has a direct connection with Flyball Percentage (or Groundball Percentage, by default).

That's why we can look at BABIP and GB% separately. GB% represents how many HRs a pitcher should give up, and BABIP represents the number of non-HR hits that a pitcher has given up. Of course GB% is more stable than BABIP, and that is why HRs are easier to predict than hits and should be treated differently.

A couple of readers asked to see another list of pitchers and their career BABIPs, except this time using average and poor pitchers. It is tough to get a list of poor pitchers who have pitched for as many seasons as the guys on the previous list because if a pitcher is that bad there is little chance he will survive in the big leagues that long. Therefore, I'll give a list of some average pitchers that were able to last for a while.

Woody Williams - .285
Pat Hentgen - .288
Andy Benes - .292
Kevin Appier - .292
Hideo Nomo - .293
Denny Neagle - .295
Andy Ashby - .296
Darren Dreifort - .307

If I had swapped the names on this list with the previous one I doubt anyone would be able to tell. I think this further proves that while a pitcher may have some control over the hits he gives up, there is a lot of luck involved and DIPS is a much more effective way to analyze a pitcher's merits.

Alright, I think that's enough about that for now. Comment away on any of this stuff, and if you ever see an article that has a contradictory viewpoint feel free to bring it to my attention. The quest for knowledge is never-ending, and DIPS Theory is far from perfect, though the closest thing we have at the present time.

Research Day

2007-05-17T17:02:00.000-05:00

Hey guys. Sorry for the lack of posts today. I dedicated today to some research about hitter selectivity and related things. Made some good progress that should go towards make the 2008 projections fantastic. It could help with this season as well, but a lot of what I used was from Retrosheet. Retrosheet doesn't put out data for a particular season until a couple months after it is completed, so I'm not sure how this stuff will work for the current season. As I get near the completion of what I'm doing I'll be sure to let you all know though.

On days like this I'll try to give you guys a heads up earlier in the day.

Andrew Miller Called Up... But Don't Rush to Your Waiver Wire

2007-05-16T17:14:00.000-05:00

Andrew Miller has been announced by the Detroit Tigers as their starter for Friday's game after Jeremy Bonderman has been sent to the DL. Possible buy low situation with Bonderman, but I'll talk more about that later.

Miller put up an amazing 63.5% GB rate at Single A Lakeland this year, but only managed 6.52 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9 in 38.7 IP. While Miller might be good one day, I would stay away from him in redraft leagues this year. His numbers just don't look like those of a guy who is ready for the big time. Also, notice that those numbers came at Single A. Don't pick up Miller unless you are in a keeper league (in which case he might already be owned) or an extremely, extremely deep league.

Manager Jim Leyland also said Miller will be sent back down once Bonderman is ready to return.

Pitchers and 'Hitability'

2007-05-16T16:07:00.000-05:00

Today, my friend and I had a conversation that I thought might interest you guys. We were talking about pitchers and their 'hitability'. Surely you've heard someone, possibly a broadcaster, talk about how a certain pitcher is very hittable, or how another pitcher is able to prevent hits. This person, unfortunately, is misinformed.

Anyway, my friend and I were talking about whether or not pitchers can do anything to prevent hits. We know that once a ball is put into play it is out of the pitcher's control, but can a pitcher throw the ball a certain way so that when it is put into play, it is hit worse than when another pitcher allows a ball to be put into play?

My friend said that good pitchers are able to limit their hits. I said that they can't. They can help determine the type of hit it is (groundball, airball, or pop-up), but cannot determine how hard it is hit or whether it is more or less likely to become a hit. To attempt - albeit crudely - to prove my point, I looked up the career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) for some of the greatest pitchers of our generation. HRs can be prevented by pitchers (by giving up more groundballs than flyballs), but hits in the field of play - I said - cannot be prevented. Here is a list of the pitchers I looked up. Keep in mind that league average BABIP is .290, so in order for my theory to be correct each pitcher should have a BABIP close to this (it can vary slightly due to luck and a tendency to give up either more groundballs or airballs, which fall for hits at slightly different rates).

Tom Glavine - .285
Johan Santana - .287
Pedro Martinez - .287
Greg Maddux - .288
Jamie Moyer - .289
John Smoltz - .290
Al Leiter - .291
Roger Clemens - .294
Mike Mussina - .295
David Wells - .300
Randy Johnson - .301

I chose these players because they are all considered good pitchers and all pitched for a good number of years. My viewpoint states that given enough time, all pitchers will put up the league average BABIP (or the variation for a pitcher with each specific GB and FB rates). Since league average is .290, it doesn't appear that any of these guys deviate too far from it. If anything, it looks like the deviation occurs in the opposite direction expected. Randy Johnson has given up more hits on balls in play than the average pitcher.

I think that this - while crude and dealing with a very small sample size - is a pretty good indicator that pitcher's can't control how many hits he gives up. It also gives further credibility to the statistics that I stress for pitchers. Since a pitcher cannot control hits or runs, we should focus only on what he can control - Strikeouts, Walks, and Batted Ball Types. The best of these Batted Ball types is the pop-up, but because this percentage is small for all pitchers I place more emphasis on talking about Groundball Percentage. Groundballs can't be hit out of the park and can be turned more easily into double plays than flyballs despite a slightly smaller Out Percentage.

I think there is a good chance that somebody out there has already proven this point - and most likely in a more scientific way - but I found the numbers above quite interesting and wanted to share them with you. Hope you enjoyed it!

Bob Wickman Activated by Braves

2007-05-16T13:05:00.000-05:00

Bob Wickman was activated by the Atlanta Braves yesterday, who indicated that he will resume his normal closing duties. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, who had formed a closing tandem while Wickman was sidelined, will be returned to their former roles. It wouldn't be a surprise to see one - or both - of these two to take the closer's job right back within a few weeks if Wickman doesn't shape up. A BB/9 over 7.00 is terrible and completely unacceptable for a closer. If Wickman doesn't lower than quickly, he might find himself in a middle relief role.

Look for an article on players to Buy Low and Sell High later today.

Huston Street to DL

2007-05-15T18:57:00.000-05:00

Huston Street has been placed on the DL by the Oakland A's. Justin Duchscherer is one of the best setup men in baseball, however, he is day-to-day with a hip injury. I have picked him up in a few of my leagues regardless, but if he can't pitch Kiko Calero is a good bet to get the save opp. It's your call, but I've picked up Duchscherer.

UPDATE: Duchscherer will be fine to pitch while Street is out. He should be picked up in all leagues he is available.

Mailbag: Barry Bonds

2007-05-15T14:55:00.000-05:00

Here's a Fantasy Baseball Mailbag question that just came in. I haven't talked too much about Barry Bonds yet this year, but I absolutely love him, especially when combined with a good OF to play on his off days.

Steve writes:

"Hey there,

Ive been reading your blog for a couple weeks now and I think you do a very good job & I respect your opinion. That being said, I am looking for some advice. I am semi-new to fantasy baseball, second season, and am starting to spend some serious time on my team. I drafted Barry Bonds very late in the draft and am thus far very impressed with what he has done for me but I fear that after he breaks the record he is going to fall off. I was looking at trading him but found that all of my friends in my league have personal problems with Mr. Bonds and don't want him on their team no matter what kind of numbers he puts up. What would you do in this situation?"

I responded:
"Hey Steve,
I also drafted Barry Bonds late all of my drafts and have been reaping the rewards. In your situation, I would simply sit tight with Bonds. While he certainly wants the record, I doubt he will stop putting up numbers once he gets it. The Giants are only three back in the NL West, and I bet he also wants to win a World Series. He is still 11 HRs away from breaking the record, and even if he quits baseball the day after he hits #756 you'd still get 22 HRs out of him for the year. Not bad for a late round pick.

I fully expect him to continue hitting for Contact and Power, though. His HRs have been rockets, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 35 or 40 this year. Hang onto Bonds (I will be in my leagues), and make a note of each player in your league that won't touch Bonds because of the issues surrounding him. In future drafts, target similar players once more information comes out in later rounds. You have to leave emotions and personal feelings out of Fantasy Baseball in order to be successful. Take advantage of this."

I know that there are mixed feelings about Barry Bonds, but regardless of his issues, the fact is he can produce for your Fantasy Baseball Team. In order to win, this is all that can matter. When you let personal feelings or team allegiances or anything like that get in the way, it becomes much more difficult to win a competitive Fantasy Baseball League.

Mailbag: Hanley/Chavez for Atkins/Dye

2007-05-15T14:53:00.000-05:00

Alright. Here's our next Mailbag question from an anonymous reader.

The reader writes:
"Hello Derek,

Here is my question. 12 team mixed, head to head, 5x5 league with total bases in place of average. Here is what the offer is:

I get: Atkins, Dye

I trade: Hanley Ramirez and Eric Chavez

I realize on the surface it is a bad trade. However, I have Rafael Furcal on my bench. Thus, in essence I am also getting Furcal in the deal as I now free up my SS position (I have Hafner in my overall utility spot and I like a power hitter in my utility infield spot so I do not want to play both Furcal and Hanley). I would still have Damon, Vernon Wells, and Kinlser along with Furcal to steal some bases for me,

I downgrade from Ramirez to Furcal which is not that much of a downgrade, I get a potential upgrade from Chavez to Atkins, and I get Dye as an extra. I know that you love Atkins. Dye was bound to regress after last season, but what are his prospects for the remainder of the season? Plus, have your thoughts about Atkins changed any since he is still struggling?

Thanks! Sorry for the long message. I just really respect your opinion. "

My response:
"I would definitely make this trade. I still like Atkins, and he is one of my favorite Buy Low candidates right now. He's got a good Contact Rate (which should improve) and a good BB rate, and I fully expect him to raise his BA to at least .300. Based on HR data from 2006, his season was not a fluke, and I expect him to start hitting HRs shortly. He should hit at least his HR ratio from last year from here on out. 25 HRs by the end of the year seems likely, even though he only has 2 so far.

Dye is also quite good. He crushed a lot of balls last year, and a repeat HR performance would not shock me. His BA will be down from last year, but it should remain at a respectable level. He has a 75% Contact Rate and 8.2% BB rate, but I think the Contact Rate has a pretty good chance of improving a little bit. He hits in a pretty good lineup, so I expect Dye to be looked back on as a very good player come September.

Chavez is decent, but not great. I expect an above average BA and around 22 HRs, plus the luxury of hitting in a good lineup for RBIs and Runs, but I think Atkins is much better. Hanley is good, and I love the increased BB rate this year, but Furcal is plenty good enough to be your starting SS."

Mailbag: Oliver Perez, Anthony Reyes, and Cliff Lee

2007-05-15T14:21:00.000-05:00

I've had a few questions about Oliver Perez lately, and today's first Mailbag will deal with two of them.

Mark writes:
"What do you think of Reyes? I love his peripherals, but giving up 3 or 4 earned runs every time out is getting old. I dropped him today to pick up Oliver Perez, who I had picked up and dropped earlier this year. I figure Perez will be more of a rollercoaster, but if I'm selective I could get better overall numbers from him."

I responded:
"Reyes is an interesting guy right now. He's got good peripherals, and he isn't getting unlucky with Hits or Home Runs. He just seems to be giving up a lot of Runs. This will change at some point (if he keeps up these peripherals), but I think Oliver Perez is better anyway. He'll get you more Ks, has a better offense, and has better peripherals. I don't like the low GB rate, but that won't change, and as long as he keeps the K/BB up he'll be a pretty good pitcher. Good job taking him over Reyes."

The other question regarding Oliver Perez came from an anoymous reader:

This reader wrote:
"I know that you are a mets fan, so please reassure me that Oliver Perez is not a bad option against the Yankees this weekend and that he is a better option than Cliff Lee at home against the Reds. "

I responded:
"I definitely would take Oliver Perez against the Yankees over Cliff Lee against the Reds. Perez has a good K/9 and K/BB, although I wish his GB% was higher. Cliff Lee though, doesn't have a good K/9 or K/BB or GB%. Go with Perez. He's putting up peripherals similar to his 2004. I'm very pleased to see this as a Mets fan."

All said, I like Perez, even more so than I did this off-season when I had him ranked as my #36 Starting Pitcher. I like Reyes second among these three pitchers, and Cliff Lee last.

Sorry Guys

2007-05-14T23:02:00.000-05:00

I meant for this to be a Mailbag day, but the the day sort of got away from me. We'll double time it tomorrow. Good night!

Letter to the Readers

2007-05-14T00:00:00.000-05:00

Hey everyone,
It seems like we have a pretty good base of readers now. I just wanted to mention a few quick things to everyone.

First, while we have a good amount of readers, we don't have too many commenting. Don't be afraid to give your opinion about anything I write on here. I strongly encourage it.

Second, if you have a specific question about your team or Fantasy Baseball in general, email me! I like answering your questions, so don't be shy. A couple of people posted these types of questions in the comments section, which I had forgotten about until now. I will try to answer these tomorrow, but if you email me I'll be less likely to forget about the question because it'll be sitting in my inbox, not on a comment page.

Lastly, I assume a lot of you probably read other blogs. Feel free to tell these other blogs about the Saberoticians. The more readers I can get the better!

Thanks everyone! Email me if you have any questions!

Derek Carty

Closer Updates

2007-05-13T21:39:00.000-05:00

Jeremy Accardo has officially been given the Blue Jays closing job, so make sure he is owned in every league.

Jorge Julio was traded by the Marlins today. That leaves Taylor Tankersley as the most likely candidate to get saves in Marlins bullpen... at least until Henry Owens gets back. Neither have great peripherals, but someone has to close and the Marlins closer - whoever it is at any particular time - should probably be owned in all leagues.

Mets Bullpen Analysis - April

2007-05-13T15:53:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I posted an analysis of my favorite team, the New York Mets, Starting Rotation for the month of April. Today I'm doing the Bullpen. You can also check this out over at Mets Fever.

The Bullpen

Billy Wagner – His K rate is down a little bit, but it’s still great and his K/BB is fantastic. His GB rate is way down from its normal 45% to 37%. That should increase. He’s getting lucky, but it doesn’t make much of a difference as he is a fantastic pitcher anyway.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman’s K rate is down all the way to 5.74. Probably related to his elbow troubles. His BB rate is improved, and could increase a little bit, but as long as he gets his Ks back on track he will be fine. His GB rate has also dropped from about 45% to 31.3%. That should increase as time goes on. Giving up a few too many HRs and not giving up as many hits as he should be, but once he gets his health in order he should be the Heilman of old.

Joe Smith – Love him. I was upset losing Bradford, but Smith shares similar qualities. I can only imagine if we had them both. Bradford is much better than Schoeneweis, who got similar money. High K rate (10.69) and High GB rate (68.4%) are fantastic, although both will probably drop a little. His BB rate isn’t as low as you’d like it (3.94), but his other two important stats make up for it. Once he lowers the BB rate he will prove to be on of the best relievers in all of baseball.

Scott Schoeneweis – Not pitching well… even worse than I expected when we signed him. He’s walking more than the measly amount he is striking out, and he’s being aided by a .216 BABIP. Unfortunately, that will catch up to him and hurt the team’s bullpen. Omar, why’d you let Chad Bradford go?!

Pedro Feliciano – K rate is good – although I’m still not convinced it will hold – but he is walking a ton of batters (6.14 per 9 IP). 59.5% GB rate is fantastic, but unlikely to last. .233 BABIP is keeping his ERA low, but once that gets to a normal level he’d better stop walking batters or he will be in trouble.

Aaron Sele – A slightly higher K/9, as you would expect with the shift to the bullpen, but also a higher BB/9, which is not good. It’s at 4.70, and he has to get that under 3.0 if he wants to be effective. 44.9% GB rate is pretty good, and should remain stable throughout the year. Hasn’t given up a single HR, which he should have by now, but his .364 BABIP means he’s giving up far more hits than he should be. Not great surface numbers, but I wouldn’t expect much of an improvement.

Lino Urdaneta – Didn’t expect to see this guy in a Mets uniform this year, and with only 1 IP the sample size is just too small to make any sort of assessment.

There you have it... the Mets Bullpen. Seems like we have three very good relievers (once Heilman gets his act together) and one potential one in Feliciano (once he stops walking people), and Duaner Sanchez should be added to this group once he gets back. Guillermo Mota will be an improvement over Urdaneta, Sele, and Schoeneweis once he returns (assuming his stats weren't overly inflated by steroids).

Waiver Wire - National League

2007-05-12T23:00:00.000-05:00

Alright, National League Waiver Wire day. Let's get right to it.

National League

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - I've talked about him already, but chances are he was dropped in your league. Pick him up and hope he gets either gets called back up or traded (the more likely scenario) soon. If he doesn't within a couple of weeks, you can drop him and pick him up again in July as the trade deadline approaches.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Claudio Vargas | MIL | SP - 34% GB rate isn't very good, but his combination of 9.79 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9 is. He has never had a K/9 higher than 6.77 in his career, but if it keeps up he'll be useful in most leagues. Play him until you see him stop K-ing guys.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he shows otherwise. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he shows otherwise.

Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - Generally considered one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, LaRoche seems to have control of the Dodger 3B job for now. He had an 84% Contact Rate in AAA last year, and had an 86% rate before his call-up this year. He had 19 HRs between AA and AAA in 2006. He has an 87% Contact Rate so far with the Dodgers and an insane 34.8% BB rate. He had an 11% BB rate in AAA last year, so his patience/selectivity is quite good. Not sure how the power will translate, but he should help you with Batting Average and he's hitting in a good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Mark Hendrickson | LAD | SP - .197 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Hendrickson, although his peripheral are better than I expected. His line: 7.24 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 53.8% GB. Definitely worthy of a roster spot, just not his 1.95 ERA. His K and GB rates are unlike his career numbers, so a decline is definitely possible. Use him until this happens.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.

Jason Marquis | LAD | SP - .202 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Marquis as well, but he doesn't have the peripherals to be worth a roster spot except in the deepest leagues. His line: 4.53 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 47.6% GB. Very similar to his career numbers, so expect a steep decline for Marquis.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Had me worried after his first start, but his start against the Rockies at Coors has settled me down a bit. His BB rate wasn't great in the minors, and we knew he'd need to work on his control to be successful in the majors this year. His BB/9 stands at 4.76, but he only walked one batter in 7 IP against the Rockies. His 8.74 K/9 is quite good and should hold up this year. Only had a 33% GB rate in his first game, but it has now jumped to 48.5%. Worth a spot in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 8 team and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Some thought he might be starting to today, but that is not the case. His 4.13 BB/9 this year is terrible, and his K/9 has dropped to 5.79. Don't bother stashing Bailey as I doubt he will have much value this year unless he can somehow find some control, which he hasn't shown an abundance of in the minors yet.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be stashed in deep NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - You wouldn't expect his K/BB to increase so much after being moved out of the bullpen, but for now Belisle is worth using. Like the other guys, his peripherals could worsen at any time, but until then he can be used.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Randy Wolf | LAD | SP - Ridiculous 10.31 K/9 will have to drop, but his 2.44 BB/9 seems to be for real. Once his K/9 drops back to around 6 his low GB rate will only allow him to be an above average pitcher. Until then, ride him. .343 BABIP is keeping him under the radar for now.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP - Much improved numbers from last year, it's difficult to tell if it will last. There seems to be a lot of guys like this so far. Like all of them, play Wandy until he proves otherwise. His 46% GB rate makes him a better bet than a few of the others once their K rates decline.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Kyle Lohse | CIN | SP - Take Lohse's best K/9 of his career before 2007 and his best BB/9 of his career before 2007 and you have his 2007 line. Seems pretty legit, although he has little room for error. His terrible 32.5% GB is the lowest of his career, and there's a good chance it'll improve. Probably the best bet among these, normally considered below average-to-average, SPs to continue putting up his peripherals. Worth a roster spot.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Shawn Hill | WAS | SP - 5.94 K/9 is much better than expected, and his amazing 58.5% GB rate is exactly what I expected. He's keeping his BB/9 low, and if he can keep his K rate up he only becomes more valuable. Will struggle to pick up wins with the Nationals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
UPDATE: Hill will likely be placed on the DL, so you will probably want to wait if you were planning on picking him up.

Anthony Reyes | STL | SP - Shows a stable K rate, but has improved his control to drop his BB/9 below 3. Also improved his GB rate, which might not last. Until then, Reyes has some value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jeff Suppan | MIL | SP - K/9 below 5 prevents him from having value in a lot of leagues, and his BB/9 is sure to increase to career levels shortly. GB rate will improve as well, but don't change your preseason projections of Suppan.
Recommendation: Should be owned in only deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter, although his BB rate has inexplicably dropped this year. I expect it to improve with time. Not much power, but hitting in the heart of a decent lineup should provide some RBIs and Runs. Should be owned on more than the 11.4% of ESPN teams he has a spot on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Talked about a little bit a few days ago. Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed. Good lineup, but is hitting towards the bottom of it.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Coming off the DL by Wednesday and will start immediately. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Alex Gonzalez | CIN | SS - Hit Tracker shows that Gonzalez's 2007 power seems legit. In 2006 he probably should have hit at least 12 HRs in his 388 ABs, and with 500 this year 15-20 is a possibility. Has had a Contact Rate in the low 80s the past three years, and his LD rate is good. 6.1% BB rate could be better, but a decent BA is also likely out of Gonzalez. Poor Reds management has Gonzalez hitting around in the 5th and 6th spots, which helps his value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Juan Encarnacion | STL | OF - Coming off the DL soon, Encarnacion could be valuable as a reserve OF. 5.1% BB rate wasn't very good last year, but his 2004 and 2005 level of 7% wasn't bad. Shows a decent Contact Rate in the low 80s and a LD rate above 20%, so he shouldn't have a problem putting up a decent BA. He should have hit more HRs last year, possibly as many as 25. That rate could be expected this year. Will enter a good Cards lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

AL Waiver Wire Updated

2007-05-12T17:27:00.000-05:00

Added Jack Cust to the AL Waiver Wire. Forgot to include him this morning. Check the bottom of that post to read about him.

Accardo Gets the Save

2007-05-12T17:14:00.000-05:00

Jeremy Accardo got the save for the Blue Jays today. He is definitely the guy to own in the Blue Jays 'pen for now. He should do a pretty good job if he can keep up these peripherals. Drop Jason Frasor if you haven't yet, and if it was apparent B.J. Ryan should be dropped as well.

Mets Starting Pitching Analysis - April

2007-05-12T16:59:00.000-05:00

In the preseason I was asked by Ed over at Mets Fever to sabermetrically analyze my favorite team, the New York Mets. I was also asked to provide analysis on how the team is doing throughout the year. Today I posted about Starting Pitchers over there, so if you'd like to check it out go right ahead. I will also post the article here for you.

Starting Pitchers

Tom Glavine – Glavine achieves his success through a low Walk rate and a high Groundball rate. His K/9 of 5.03 is what we expected, as is his 2.61 BB/9. His 45.6% GB rate is also where it should be. Glavine is solid like this. He is being aided by a low (.243 – league average is .290) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), meaning that he is not allowing as many hits as he should be. Since pitchers cannot control what happens to a ball once it is put into play, pitchers that have an usually high or low number of hits (due to luck and/or defense) tend to either progress or regress accordingly. Glavine is in for a little bit of a regression. Expect typical Tom Glavine the rest of the way.

Oliver Perez – Perez is putting up peripheral numbers very similar to his 2004 ones. A 9.89 K/9 is fantastic, and a 3.21 BB/9 is the lowest of his career. If he can keep this up, Perez will be a fantastic pitcher for the Mets. I have no scientific proof, but I’d have to think this has something to do with Rick Peterson. Great job Rick. Perez’s BABIP (.318) is a little high, so he might even do better if he can maintain his peripherals and stop receiving this little bit of bad luck.

John Maine – I hate to say it, but Maine has probably been the luckiest pitcher in the National League so far this year. His 8.14 K/9 is a very nice surprise, but his 4.76 BB/9 is much to high to sustain his surface numbers (ERA, WHIP, etc.). His GB Percentage is also at a career low of 35.4%, which is simply terrible. With that many flyballs allowed, you’d expect Maine to give up a lot of HRs, which he is not doing. His 0.60 HR/9 should rise well above 1.00 by the end of the year. His .230 BABIP is also a source of his luck. If Maine can lower his BB rate, he should be solid. Otherwise it might be a turbulent year for him.

Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey put up great peripheral numbers in the minors last year, but hasn’t done so in the majors this year. He is walking more batters than he strikes out, and his GB Percentage (44.8%) isn’t as good as it was in the minors last year. His BABIP and HR/9 are close to where they should be, so unless Pelfrey can make some changes what you see is what you get. I fully expect him to be a solid #1 or #2 one day, but he is not there yet.

Orlando Hernandez – Before going down, Hernandez was also getting pretty lucky. His .207 BABIP isn’t sustainable, although his 1.41 HR/9 should improve. His K/9 wasn’t as high as it was last year, and he will need to increase it upon his return to be successful. His BB/9 is typical El Duque (3.66), and I don’t see much of an improvement coming there. His 39% GB rate leaves him susceptible to the longball, but not as bad as he has been hit with it so far.

Jorge Sosa – Looks like a fluke in his two starts so far. I disliked him preseason, and his low K rate, high BB rate, and low GB rate hasn’t changed my mind. A .168 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck has gone into his 2.77 ERA.

J.P. Riccardi, Lying, and Lawsuits

2007-05-12T15:54:00.000-05:00

I had a reader email today about a recent event that I'm sure has stimulated the minds of many baseball fans and Fantasy Baseball owners. J.P. Riccardi admitted a couple of days ago to lying about an injury to B.J. Ryan. During Spring Training he said that it was Ryan's back that was bothering him, while it reality is was actually a shoulder injury that he has since had to get Tommy John surgery on. The reader's email regarding this situation is below:

"Derek, I had a silly thought over the weekend, but figured I would bounce it off of you.

J.P. Riccardi, the Toronto G.M. admitted to lying about B.J Ryan's health this summer - who is now out for the year.

Today, Fantasy Baseball is a multi-million dollar industry (if not more). Being that B.J. Ryan was a top tier closer last year, many people who invested a lot of money into their leagues picked him, believing him to be healthy, only yo find out a month into the season that the GM lied - and now they are left to pick up the pieces of their teams closer situation.

What do you think of the idea of some type of lawsuit against Riccardi? Even if its not for a ton of money, but a statement type of lawsuit - that you cant go around lying about these things - b/c people lose money over it?

What do you think?"

I won't give my opinion yet, because I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. If you have an opinion on this matter or any insight to provide, please post it in the comments section. Thanks!

Waiver Wire - American League

2007-05-12T13:54:00.000-05:00

I know this has been missing the past couple of weeks; I apologize. It shouldn't happen again now that I've got more free time on my hands. I'm thinking Saturday's will be American League day and Sunday's will be for the National League from now on, and maybe Wednesday will be reserved for Buy Low/Sell High day.

American League

Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.

Henry Owens to the DL

2007-05-11T21:13:00.000-05:00

Henry Owens, Florida Marlins closer, has been sent to the Disabled List. So who will take his place as closer? The Marlins would eventually like to get Jorge Julio back into this role. His first outing the other day was very good, but I think it's too soon for the Marlins to trust Julio with the role. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said, "He's the guy we want. The guy's got experience to do it but we've got to build confidence in him." The player who would be the best bet to get the most saves right now is Taylor Tankersley, although his numbers haven't been very inspiring thus far (5.40 K/9 | 3.60 BB/9 | 34.5% GB).

However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.

Risk and Pitchers

2007-05-11T20:40:00.000-05:00

I've talked about Risk as a something to be exploited in Fantasy Baseball over the past couple of days, but I never talked about how it relates to pitching. This is something I will go over now.

The strategy with hitters is to take one who is an injury risk and play him whenever he is healthy. You also take a supplemental player who will play whenever the primary player gets hurt or doesn't play.

I don't think this strategy can be applied to pitchers, and here is why. When you take a position player who is an injury risk and he ends up getting hurt, you play the supplemental player every day the primary player is not in the lineup. Normally, this supplemental player is not worthy of starting every day for your team, but is useful - as his name suggests - as a supplemental player who is used occasionally. Doing this properly maximizes the value of both of the players.

With pitchers, there is a very small amount of pitchers that should only be used sometimes. Normally, a pitcher should be used either every single game or not at all. As a result, supplemental pitchers shouldn't really exist. If a pitcher is good enough to be on your roster, he should be good enough to use. Otherwise, you're really just wasting a roster spot and you will have a hard time getting to your league's maximum innings pitched mark.

That's why on a lot of my teams I took a couple of underrated aces (Peavy, Felix, Schilling, Kazmir, Hamels, Myers etc.) and loaded up the back end of my rotation with more underrated guys like A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Dave Bush, Kelvim Escobar, Scott Olsen, Jamie Shields, and Oliver Perez. Olsen has turned out to be a bust, and I subsequently dropped him in the leagues I owned him. I had no idea his K rate would drop, his BB rate would rise, and his GB rate would drop. I didn't see any signs of this coming, and I doubt anyone else did either. As long as you can get most of your picks right, you can afford to miss out on a couple. Especially when you can pick up guys like Philip Hughes and Tim Lincecum off the Waiver Wire.

The point with Olsen is that if a pitcher is not worth using, he is wasting a valuable roster spot and isn't worth owning. As such, you can't really have a supplemental pitcher. The best strategy, I think, with pitchers is to grab one or two aces and load up on good values for the rest of the draft. All of these pitchers should be used every single game (with a few rare circumstances), and if one gets hurt you can either go without them, make a trade, or very carefully scan the Waiver Wire for a guy who might deserve a roster spot. But to hang onto one of these guys as a reserve in case one of your good pitchers gets hurt isn't a smart idea. It's a waste of resources.

Checking In On Curt Schilling

2007-05-11T08:41:00.000-05:00

Preseason, I ranked Curt Schilling as the #5 Starting Pitcher in Fantasy Baseball. Before his first start of the regular season, Schilling announced that he would be "pitching to contact." Not what Fantasy Owners, or the Red Sox for the matter, wanted to hear. Pitching to contact means that a pitcher won't try as hard to miss bats. Instead, he will try to throw strikes and let the batter put the ball in play. Since we know that pitchers have no control over what happens to a ball once it is put into, this is not the type of strategy we'd like to see our #5 SP employing. By pitching to contact, we would expect the number of swinging strikes a pitcher gets to decrease as well as that pitcher's K/9. So how is Schilling doing so far?

From 2004 to 2006, Schilling's K/9 sat in the low 8s. So far in 2007, it is sitting at 7.14. If this is the extent of his new approach, it's not something to be overly concerned with. He won't be the #5 SP in Fantasy Baseball, but 7 K/9 is certainly respectable. Coupled with his still-amazing BB rate (1.74 BB/9 so far in 2007), and Schilling looks to be in good shape so far.

If we look at his individual starts, he has had quite a few where he is striking out a lot of batters. His 4/14 start he had 4 Ks in 8 IP and his 4/25 start he had 3 Ks in 7 IP, but his last two starts he has had 7 Ks in 6.1 and 7 IP.

The verdict? Don't worry about Schilling. Not yet anyway. If he can maintain his current K rate and BB rate, which it seems he will be able to do, he will be just fine. He won't be a Top 5 pitcher, but Top 10 or 15 should be easy for him.

Long Posts

2007-05-10T23:35:00.000-05:00

I just realized that I have been writing some pretty long posts over the past few days. I'll try and be more brief in the future. Sorry guys. I hope you enjoy the content though.

More On Risk

2007-05-10T22:34:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I talked about exploiting Risk for the betterment of your Fantasy Baseball Team. Today I'll go over some guys who might make good targets to acquire cheaply and apply this strategy with.

One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.

Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.

Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.

Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.

Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.

Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire

Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.

Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire

Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.

Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.

Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.

I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.

B.J. Ryan Done for the Year

2007-05-10T17:04:00.000-05:00

B.J. Ryan had Tommy John surgery today, officially ending his season. Jason Frasor has not been as effective as the Jays had hoped or I had expected. He currently has 8.10 K/9, but the 6.08 BB/9 are discouraging. The 42.1% GB percentage, while not terrible, is the lowest of his career. If he can find his control he would be a good bet to keep the role, but as long as he is walking that many batters there's a chance he will implode and lose the job.

If he does lose the job at some point it seems Jeremy Accardo would be next in line, so in deeper leagues stashing him might be a decent move.
Accardo's line: 7.98 K/9 | 3.07 BB/9 | 51.4% GB
That would make him a serviceable closer, although he has never had a GB rating that high before, so we could see it drop in the near future. His BB/9 rating is also worse than it was last year, so there is room for improvement there.

I wouldn't drop Frasor yet, as he could definitely improve, but if he doesn't and starts blowing saves the Jays might be forced to remove him from the role.

Edwin Encarnacion to AAA

2007-05-10T12:11:00.000-05:00

Again, I find myself dumbfounded at the ignorance of a move made by a Major League Baseball club. Edwin Encarnacion was demoted to Triple A this morning. Edwin is a guy I have been hyping as a Buy Low candidate, and there is no better time than now to get him. It seems somewhat likely the Reds will trade Edwin to a team that realizes how good he is. And considering what they took for Austin Kearns last year after he was demoted, I doubt they'll be hard pressed to find a suitable trading partner. Edwin is much better than Kearns, but the Reds are treating him terribly.

Edwin's K rate is actually down from last year, and his Contact Rate is at around 81%. His BB rate is down too, but 8.2% isn't bad. A 20.7% LD Percentage is pretty good too. I still believe the power is there, as I actually expected 25-30 out of him in the preseason. The one he has hit this year went a long way, so I still expect him to put up good power numbers once he gets back on his feet. If his owner drops him, it might be a good idea to stash him away.

Now that I think about it, this may actually be a blessing in disguise for mine and several other peoples' fantasy teams. Ryan Freel, who I own in a couple leagues, hasn't been getting regular playing time with Josh Hamilton around. With Edwin gone, he now will. Then if Edwin lands on an appreciative team who can wait out a run of bad luck, I'll have the two everyday players I thought I'd drafted at the beginning of the year.

Capitalizing on 'Risky' Players

2007-05-09T22:15:00.000-05:00

A few days ago I pointed you to an article over at the Hardball Times that dealt with risk as a market inefficiency. The article mostly dealt with this concept for Major League Baseball, but the principle is very relevant to Fantasy Baseball as well.

A player who is considered an 'injury risk' is naturally less valuable than a player who might put up the same numbers but with more consistent playing time. Suppose two players hit .300 with 10 ABs per HR. One is an iron man who plays 162 games per year and the other is lucky to play in 100. Obviously the 162-game guy is going to be more valuable in trades and will be taken earlier on draft day. However, it might actually be a better move to draft the 100 game guy several rounds later.

For example, Barry Bonds is a fantastic player, but for a plethora of reasons could have been had in Round 15 in many 12-team expert league drafts. He is considered a risky player. He is 42 years old. He hasn't played more than 130 games in three years. He has had some trouble with injuries. He doesn't play in day games after night games. He has been the center of this whole steroid scandal. Instinctively, most people didn't want to draft Bonds too early. Good news for us opportunists. You easily could have drafted Barry Bonds in Round 14 and Moises Alou in Round 23 and now have your LF spot filled with a fantastic player and will get near 162 games out of the position. Play Bonds whenever he is in the Giants lineup and play Alou on the day games after night games and if Bonds is to get hurt this year.

By targeting good players who are undervalued due to injury concerns (or certain other reasons) and targeting a player in a later round as insurance/as a platoon-mate who is also undervalued, you can find yourself a very capable full-time player for a much lower price.

Another good example of this concept is Troy Glaus, especially in leagues where he is SS eligible. Glaus could have been had in Round 8 in many expert leagues. Ryan Theriot went undrafted in most leagues. While Glaus hasn't had a major injury in two years, there is still a stigma attached to him. For practical purposes, lets say that we only expect 130 games out of him this year. Lets say the remaining 32 will be filled by Theriot when Glaus is on the DL. Below is a rough estimate of their stat lines.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Glaus	130	450	113	30	87	85	1	0.251
Theriot	32	110	33	2	12	25	9	0.300
Combined	162	560	146	32	99	110	10	0.261

Now let's look at a possible stat line for Miguel Tejada, who was drafted in Round 3 in a lot of expert drafts.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Tejada	162	650	200	26	100	100	5	0.308

The only category Tejada is significantly better in is Batting Average. Of course these are rough numbers and this exact scenario might not have worked because Theriot wasn't expected to play full-time during the preseason, but I think you understand that this concept has its place in Fantasy Baseball Strategy.

A reader mentioned the other day that this theory has its limitations, which it absolutely does. That reader said that it is not always necessary to take on risk. In less competitive leagues, risk might not be needed in order to win. But in competitive leagues, taking on a risk like Troy Glaus or Barry Bonds might be a sound strategy.

There are also some risky players that should not be taken. An example of the type of player that wouldn't work well with this platoon approach is Ryan Freel. Freel is a player that I like a lot and drafted for several of my teams because I expected him to start every day. That thought went out the window with the emergence of Josh Hamilton.

Here is why it might be difficult to begin to use the approach mentioned above with Freel. His days off seem to come at random intervals. Unless you are willing to check the lineup cards as they become available, minutes before games are set to begin - which you definitely could do if you are dedicated to winning your league - it would be difficult to decide which games to bench Freel and which to play his platoon-mate. This actually becomes impossible if the player in question is on a West coast team whose games don't start until after his platoon-mate's games have ended.

Anyway, I think I've talked enough about this for now. Tomorrow I'll talk a little more and go over a few guys who might be good targets for the remainder of the year to employ this strategy with.

New Feature

2007-05-09T15:50:00.000-05:00

I'd like to start a weekly feature that is maintained mostly through reader feedback. The idea for this week's came from one of our readers.

What is the worst trade you have ever been proposed?

This does not have to include sabermetrics in any way. It's simply the most lopsided trade that, in your opinion, you've ever been asked about. Maybe you inquired about Felipe Lopez and were asked to give up Albert Pujols. Or maybe someone offered you Chad Gaudin for Alfonso Soriano. Hopefully your league is more competitive than one where someone thinks they have a legitimate chance of completing one of these trades, but whatever your worst trade was, send it in. Next week we'll post them all (or the worst ones if the response is overwhelming). Make sure to include the year the trade was proposed.

Each week we'll try to come up with a new type of reader generated feature, so it is critical that you guys participate in order to keep this going. Email us at saberoticians [at] gmail .com to send in your contribution. Also mention whether or not you'd like your name to be included.

Followup Articles

2007-05-09T14:30:00.000-05:00

Over the past week I mentioned two articles written over at the HardBall Times. One was on Philip Hughes's mechanics, and the other was on the potential market inefficiency of Risk. Since then followup articles have been posted about both, so I thought I'd let you guys know about them. I'll be writing a little more on risk and its applicability to Fantasy Baseball either later today or tomorrow. Links to both of the followup articles are below.
Philip Hughes followup
Risk followup

Back in Action!

2007-05-09T14:25:00.000-05:00

Alright! Final exams are over and I'm out for the summer. With a lot of stuff now out of the way, I will have plenty of time to dedicate to posting here and to further developing my system for next year (as well as developing one for Fantasy Football). Again, I'm terribly sorry for the lack of posts and the days without any; this sort of thing shouldn't happen again.

Clemens to Pitch For Yankees

2007-05-06T16:13:00.000-05:00

Roger Clemens announced today that he will pitch for the Yankees, beginning at the end of the month. If you have room on your bench until then, need pitching, and Clemens is available on your Waiver Wire (in deeper leagues he's probably already gone) pick him up. He should be a Top 5 pitcher while he's playing. If you can trade for him cheap, it might not be a bad idea.

Great Article on a Potential New Market Inefficiency

2007-05-04T02:10:00.000-05:00

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis talks about Billy Beane's discovery of a market inefficiency in baseball: On-Base Percentage. Well, today the Hardball Times writes about a new one. Check out the article here. Very well done.

What this article talks about can definitely be applied to Fantasy Baseball. This is actually a strategy I employed in a number of my drafts this season. I drafted Barry Bonds late, knowing I would only get 120 or so games out of him. I then took another outfielder late, such as a Moises Alou or a Pat Burrell or a Chris Duncan, who I intended to play when Bonds gets hurt and on days when the Giants play a day game after a night game and Bonds sits. This has so far worked out well for me, and I think it is a very good strategy that should be employed in certain cases.

It's late now, and I have to get up early, but this is something I will think about and probably talk more about tomorrow. Good night.

Russ Ortiz to the DL

2007-05-03T18:54:00.000-05:00

The Giants, today, placed Russ Ortiz on the DL. This should clear a spot for one of our favorite prospects, Tim Lincecum. No official announcement has been made, but if anyone besides Lincecum takes this spot I would be shocked. If he is available in your league and you need pitching, pick him up.

Hughes and Lincecum

2007-05-02T13:10:00.000-05:00

Well, it seems as though Philip Hughes will be out for 4-6 weeks. Not good for those of us who were relying on him in the back end of our fantasy rotations. If you have an open DL spot, put him there. If you don't, but can afford sitting him on your bench, do it. Otherwise its a case by case basis, depending on the size of your league, the type of league, your other pitchers, and a few other factors. Email if you'd like my opinion on what you should do with him.

Better news, though, is that Russ Ortiz gave up 8 runs in 3.1 IP last night. This is exactly the type of performance that will force the Giants to bring up Tim Lincecum. If you need pitching and he is still on your Waiver Wire, make sure you grab him now. It should only be a matter of weeks (and possibly... hopefully... less) before we see his Big League debut.

Interesting Article on Philip Hughes

2007-05-01T21:16:00.000-05:00

While Philip Hughes is pitching into the 7th inning against the Rangers, I have been reading an article on him over at the Hardball Times. Very interesting. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it yet, but if I develop a strong opinion I'll be sure to let you know. Make sure to check it out, and to cheer Philip on against the Rangers. His peripherals look quite good right now.

Wow, interesting move. I was about to post this when I saw that Hughes has just been removed from the game despite having a no-hitter through 6.1 innings. I realize that no-hitters don't actually mean a whole lot, but with the luster of it I'd think Torre would let him keep pitching. He'd only thrown 84 pitches. Oh well, I guess they want to take care of him. I can't really complain, he pitched a good game for me.

A lot of people said to bench Hughes against Texas in mixed leagues; I didn't see the necessity of it considering his good peripheral numbers against Toronto. I'm certainly glad I played him, and I hope the Yankees see what we do... that Hughes deserves to stay in the Bigs.

UPDATE: I should have known he was removed for a reason. He tweaked his hamstring. Let's hope it's nothing serious; Hughes could end up as a Top 20 SP this year.

Buying and Selling

2007-05-01T15:24:00.000-05:00

Starting this week we'll be having a post on which players you should and shouldn't buy low and sell high on. If a player that you are curious about isn't mentioned, email us and we'll let you know how to best proceed. I'll try to mention players who are owned in most leagues (or who should be owned in most leagues), so those in deeper leagues with specific questions please don't hesitate to ask me. Here we go!

Buy Low
Garrett Atkins - One of my favorite preseason sleepers is struggling a little. If his owner thinks maybe Atkins isn't the player he thought he was on draft day grab him. I still think Atkins will be a first round pick next year. .330/35/110/100 is still quite possible.

Conor Jackson - Getting absolutely, incredibly, ridiculously unlucky, Jackson is a guy who could be a Top 10 1B by the end of the year. Great Contact Rate, Line Drive Percentage, and BB rate. Is a pretty good bet to reach 30 HRs. Very good lineup should keep his RBI and Run totals up.

Manny Ramirez & Lance Berkman - My #10 and #11 picks in the league with my friends are both struggling. Both are good players though and should be picked up on the cheap if at all possible. Both will put up monster numbers in 4 of 5 categories.

Brett Myers - Myers won't stay in middle relief for too long. He'll either become one of the game's best closers or Starting Pitchers (again). If he becomes the SP you're set, and if he becomes the closer just turn and trade him for another top shelf SP. Great peripherals since moving to the bullpen, which is when he changed his arm slot to correct his early season troubles.

Dave Bush - .383 BABIP means Bush is getting extremely unlucky. His control is amazing, his K rate is over 7, and his GB rate is above average. Sooner or later his run of bad luck will stop. Get him now while you can.

Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - Mentioned a lot already, so I won't spend a lot of time going over him. He needs to improve his control to become an elite pitcher, and he hasn't done it so far this year. There's no indication that he will, so stay away from Zambrano.

Ervin Santana - Mentioned as a bust candidate for this year, Santana is fulfilling my expectations. In case you're tempted to trade for him... don't. Even worse peripherals than last year. 1.33 K/BB and 30% GB rate is not a formula for success.

Chien-Ming Wang - Simply does not strike out enough players to have fantasy value. A 3 category starter is very rarely worth owning. His BB/9 is too high to even think he'll have very good ERA and WHIP.

Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman is another guy who has been overhyped. He is due for a power regression (12 HRs perhaps) and he is only an above average contact hitter. Add in his terrible lineup (although it will improve when Nick Johnson returns) and you have a poor fantasy player. His draft day value was much too high, so don't think you're getting a bargain with him.

Chuck James - Braves pitchers tend to get more hype than deserved, and James is one of them. He has a decent K/BB, but it won't get much better. Not a great K/9 and a downright bad GB Percentage. BABIP is a little high, but essentially what you see is what you get with Chuck James right now.

Sell High
Matt Cain - Cain's a young guy with a lot of hype, but his K/9 this year is at just 5.91 and his BB/9 is all the way up at 4.37. That equates to a lot of hits and a lot of walks. Add in his low GB Percentage, which is always low, and you'll get a lot of HRs too. Of course his K/9 should increase and his GB% will increase maybe 5-7%, but there is nothing to suggest his BB/9 will decrease. A .117 BABIP and 0.51 HR/9 won't hold up. I have a very strong feeling Cain owners will be very displeased in the coming months.

John Maine - Maine is getting very lucky via .200 BABIP and 0.54 HR/9. BABIP should be around .290 and HR/9 should be over 1 with his low GB Percentage. His K/9 is surprisingly good, but it may not last. His BB/9 is pretty high and his GB% is low.

Henry Owens - Seemingly pitching well, but a .233 BABIP is just luck. Low K/9, high BB/9 and only a decent GB Percentage means Owens is in for a fall. Let someone else catch him.

Rich Hill - Already being mentioned as a serious NL Cy Young candidate, this won't be the case at the end of the season. .192 BABIP and 0.76 HR/9 are quite lucky and his K/9 is down from last year. His GB Percentage is up, but it is still poor. Hill will end up as a decent pitcher, but he won't be an elite pitcher as he is being treated now. Trade him for one.

Justin Verlander - Another preseason bust I talked about, Verlander is getting lucky... again. You can't bank on luck, only on skill. 6.52 K/9 and 4.34 BB/9 paired with an average 43% GB rate is not how you achieve a 2.79 ERA. Verlander is in for a drop in production.

Don't Sell High
Jake Peavy - One of my favorite players preseason, Peavy is outperforming even my expectations. K/9 over 10.5 and BB/9 under 3 equals sheer dominance. Trade him only for Johan Santana.

Josh Beckett - My #19 SP preseason, Beckett should continue to produce as long as he is healthy. May need to K more guys if his amazing BB rate increases, and his GB rate may be a bit inflated, but Beckett should continue to produce quality fantasy numbers.

Chris Duncan - Don't know if I've mentioned him, but Duncan was a preseason sleeper for me. His HRs last year were legit, and he has hit a few so far this year. Decent Contact Rate, good LD rate, and decent BB rate means he should be a fairly productive contact hitter. Good lineup means RBIs and Runs. Only trade him if you can get good value for him.

Alex Rodriguez - Was due to hit more HRs this year. This pace won't keep up, but A-Rod should hit 50-55 HRs and 60 is a possibility. Most of his HRs this year have gone very far. He is simply destroying the ball. Not a great contact hitter, but a .280-.285 average is likely. A lot of RBIs and Runs are in store hitting in the middle of the Yankee lineup, and A-Rod is normally good for a few steals. Don't trade him for anyone not named Albert Pujols.

Wickman to the DL

2007-04-30T17:22:00.000-05:00

Bob Wickman has been placed on the Disabled List by the Atlanta Braves. Mike Gonzalez figures to get most of the saves and is worth a pickup in all leagues. He should be one of the Top 10 or 15 closers while he has the role. In deeper leagues Rafael Soriano, an equally good candidate, should also be picked up as he may get some saves and might even get them all. No official announcement has been made yet as to the new closer, but there is a chance that whoever it is will keep the role when Wickman returns from the DL.

Mailbag: Ryan Howard

2007-04-30T12:33:00.000-05:00

Here's a mailbag question that I'm sure a lot of Ryan Howard owners are thinking:

Question:

"Derek,
Ryan Howard--stay patient with him, or should I be shopping him around?"

Here is my response:

"I don't own Ryan Howard in any of my leagues, but if I did this is how I would proceed. I would talk to the owners in my league and get a feel for how highly they value him. If I could get somebody of equal perceived value, I would do it. But I would not sell him low. All three of his HRs so far have been hit very far. By that logic, he should have hit a few that weren't as far, which he hasn't yet. He will do this eventually. His numbers last year indicate his power is real, and his numbers this year indicate the same thing.

Other Phillies struggling as well, but I expect them to start hitting. Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, and Burrell are all good players. Rowand isn't bad either. Howard should easily get over 110 RBIs and at least 100 Runs. He is walking a lot this year, and while this will come down a little he should score a good amount of Runs just based on his being on base a lot and hitting home runs. As far as HRs go, it isn't out of the question to expect 50 or 55 by year's end. I wouldn't even be shocked if he hit 60. His average will come down from last year as he swings and misses a lot of pitches and his Contact Rate isn't very good. He hits a lot of LDs (although it is a little low this year), so when he does put the ball in play it is often hit well.

In summation, Howard is still a good player who you should hold onto. He's getting a little unlucky with homers, and when the rest of the team starts to hit he will pick up his RBIs and Runs. His BA will be down from last year, but Howard is still a very good player. Don't trade him low.

If in a few weeks he starts to hit and a guy like Alex Rodriguez slows down, see if you can't make the trade. Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes (if you need steals), and David Ortiz are a few other guys I would consider trading him for. I hope this helps!"

Post your thoughts on Ryan Howard!

Rookie Pitchers to Look Out For

2007-04-27T23:32:00.000-05:00

With the arrival of Philip Hughes, I thought it fitting to go over a few other minor league pitchers who figured to be called up sometime within the next month or two. I've talked a little about each player and given his 2006 and 2007 minor league numbers. I haven't included every possible player because MinorLeagueSplits.com doesn't provide a comprehensive list of players, just individual pages. If there's someone else you'd like to know about just let me know. We'll keep tabs on these guys throughout the year.

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Seemingly had a sub par outing against the Blue Jays in his first start on Thursday, but Hughes put up terrific peripheral numbers. 10.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, and a 46.7% Groundball rate does not equate to 4 runs. Hughes certainly could have pitched worse, and if he stays in the majors past his start against the Rangers on Tuesday figures to be a good play in most leagues. His minor league numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Trenton - 116 IP | 10.71 K/9 | 2.48 BB/9 | 52.4% GB
2006 A+ Tampa - 30.3 IP | 8.90 K/9 | 0.59 BB/9 | 51.4% GB

Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Doesn't get nearly as much hype as Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, or Yovani Gallardo, but Adam Miller is just as good as any of them, and is significantly better than Bailey. But up fantastic numbers in AA last year, just a touch worse than Philip Hughes. There's no guarantee he will be called up this year, but the Indians brought up Jeremy Sowers after 97 IP at AAA Buffalo last year, and Adam Miller is much better than Jeremy Sowers. Would become the Cleveland's 2nd best fantasy pitcher after C.C. Sabathia if he is called up. His minor leagues numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Akron - 154 IP | 9.18 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 55% GB
2007 AAA Buffalo - 24.3 IP | 8.51 K/9 | 2.96 BB/9 | 54.7% GB

Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - While he is not as heralded as Hughes or Bailey, Gallardo is generally considered the third best pitching prospect in baseball. While I don't quite agree with this consensus, Gallardo is certainly a good one. His GB Percentage is what will determine where he falls. It is down for this year, but if he can get it back above 50% he should be just a tick worse than Hughes and about even with Miller. Milwaukee's rotation seems set for now, but if Vargas starts to struggle or one of the starters get injured Gallardo could get his shot. Gallardo would become Milwaukee's third best fantasy starter behind Sheets and Bush. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Brevard County - 78 IP | 11.88 K/9 | 2.65 BB/9 | 57.3% GB
2006 AA Huntsville - 77.3 IP | 9.89 K/9 | 3.26 BB/9 | 42% GB
2007 AAA Nashville - 22.3 IP | 13.3 K/9 | 2.82 BB/9 | 39.6% GB

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted in June of last year, Lincecum didn't get much work in. The work he did get in though was fantastic, and his numbers this year are also great. The Giants rotation seems pretty set at the moment, although Russ Ortiz or Noah Lowry could find himself out of a starting gig if the Giants decide Lincecum is ready. When he is called up, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend him over every other Giants pitcher. He will need to cut down on his walks though. If he can do that he would shoot to the top of this list. His brief minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ San Jose - 27.7 IP | 15.61 K/9 | 3.90 BB/9 | 52.1% GB
2007 AAA Fresno - 24 IP | 12.00 K/9 | 4.13 BB/9 | 56% GB

Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Bailey is a guy who I feel is overrated. He is considered by some a better prospect than Philip Hughes, but his numbers just don't support this theory. He walked more batters at AA than any of our other pitchers did, and his GB rate isn't stellar. He is still a decent pitcher, but he will need to improve his control in order to be successful in the Bigs this year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Sarasota - 70.7 IP | 10.06 K/9 | 2.80 BB/9 | 44.2% GB
2006 AA Chattanooga - 67.7 IP | 10.24 K/9 | 3.72 BB/9 | 49.7% GB
2007 AAA Louisville - 21.3 IP | 5.48 K/9 | 3.80 BB/9 | 39.1% GB

Jason Windsor | OAK | SP - Perhaps you've never heard of Windsor, but he is a fine young pitcher. He's the only player on this list to pitch in AAA last year and put up numbers comparable to all of their AA numbers. His GB Percentage is not premium and is what keeps him closer to Bailey than Hughes. Has not pitched well this year, but if that changes you might see him up with the big club by the end of the year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 AA Midland - 33.3 IP | 9.45 K/9 | 2.70 BB/9 | 48.2% GB
2006 AAA Sacramento - 118 IP | 9.38 K/9 | 2.44 BB/9 | 46.1% GB
2007 AAA Sacramento - 26.7 IP | 5.74 K/9 | 4.05 BB/9 | 37.8% GB

Waiver Wire: National League

2007-04-24T16:01:00.000-05:00

Here's the National League addition of the Waiver Wire for this week.

National League

Brett Myers | PHI | RP - If his disgusted owner dropped him, pick him up. He won't stick as a middleman for long; he'll rejoin the rotation or take the closer's job. Charlie Manuel - who could be fired soon - said Myers will be put into some save situations in the coming weeks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I try to keep prospects not yet called up off of the Waiver Wire, but Lincecum continues to dominate the minor leagues. He should be pitching in AT&T Park (it feels strange not calling it Pac Bell) by the end of May. Watch for this guy.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14 team leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Ryan Theriot | CHI | 2B - Theriot is a good player that the Cubs seem to like a lot. He has been batting in the first and second spot recently, so he shouldn't have any trouble scoring a bunch of Runs. His BB% is low, but it was good in the minors and majors last year. 86% Contact and 23% Line Drive Rates are very good. Has got some speed and could swipe 30 bases. Doesn't have power.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Felix Pie | CHI | OF - Will probably be sent down soon and called back up when the Cubs traded Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, or Matt Murton. The 3 of the sharing time in RF doesn't work. Even if Pie were to stick, he still doesn't come highly recommended from me. He's got good speed (30 SBs?) and decent power (10-15 HRs tops), but can't hit for much average and doesn't take a lot of walks. Could score some runs hitting at the top of the lineup. Decent player but overhyped.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Another good week for Hamilton, who is finding ABs despite not having a starting gig. If he cools off he may not get these ABs, but the Reds have plenty of injury concerns to think Hamilton could find 400 ABs if he keeps producing. Low contact rate but has a high LD rate and an incredible BB rate. Hit Tracker's data seems to be incomplete at the moment, but Hamilton hasn't hit any of his HRs a mile. Keep expectations modest.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Still owned in just 39% of ESPN leagues, Johnson has been playing well. Discussed last week as well, Johnson should be owned in far more leagues than he is.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Another guy discussed last week, Quentin is still owned in just 6% of ESPN leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Yet another guy discussed last week, Encarnacion is owned in 9% of ESPN mixed leagues. Bench him until he starts to hit.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues.

Tom Gorzelanny | PIT | SP - Good K/BB and good GB rate, but just less than 6 K/9 makes him a lesser option in shallower leagues. Being aided by a low BABIP and HR/9, but if he keeps up these peripherals he should still be a solid pitcher.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest of NL-only leagues.

Claudio Vargas | MIL | SP - Wow. Nearly 13 K/9 and less than 2 BB/9. Not a great FB rate, but with those peripherals Vargas has been pitching amazingly. Won't keep it up, but it can't hurt to ride it out until he does. He should settle in as a decent pitcher. 7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 seems about right. That's what his recommendation is based on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest of NL-only leagues.

Edgar Gonzalez | ARZ | SP - Seems to have great control based on his numbers in the minors and majors last year and the majors this year. K/9 may be slightly inflated, but a 6.5 K/9 and 2 BB/9 along with a 45% GB rate is useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be highly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Kip Wells | STL | SP - Getting lucky so far, but 7 K/9 and 3 BB/9 with a 50% GB rate is decent. The Cards offense doesn't hurt either.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be highly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Orlando Hernandez | NYM | SP - Lower than normal K/9 and higher than normal BB/9. Unless he gets that back up he's no more than a bottom-of-the-barrel fantasy option.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 10 and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be watched in 8, considered in 10, and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Philip Hughes Has Been Added to Yahoo!

2007-04-24T15:07:00.000-05:00

Philip Hughes has been added to Yahoo's database! I was actually expecting him to make Thursday's start before he showed up. Pick him up now if you've been waiting on him! He may only make one start, but I doubt the Yankees would start his arbitration clock early just to have him make one start. He may go back down for a couple of weeks, but expect Hughes to make at least 20 starts for the Yankees this year if healthy.

Iwamura to the DL? UPDATE: 6:00 PM

2007-04-24T13:21:00.000-05:00

Wow. Didn't see this one coming. Apparently Akinori Iwamura is being sent to the DL. Just last night he went 2-3 with an RBI and 3 Rs, and just this morning I touted him as a solid pickup. I also picked him up last night in one of my leagues after another owner dropped him a couple of days ago. Strange. Manager Joe Maddon says he needs a couple of weeks off due to a strained oblique.

If you have a DL spot open (I don't with Felix and Dotel occupying them), stash him there. If you have a DL spot open and his owner drops him, pick him up and stash him. If you own him and don't have a DL spot open but have a strong bench, leave him there. If you are in desperate need of a replacement, you have no choice but to drop him there.

There is no guarantee he will continue to perform this way for the rest of the year (we're only judging him based on a three week sample size now), so it might not be a devastating move dropping him. But if he ends up putting up a line like .300/20/80/90/25 you might regret dropping him. Tough decision; it comes down to the depth of your league and the depth of your team.

UPDATE: It is now being said that Iwamura will miss 4-6 weeks. Feel free to drop him now if it was a shaky call for you this afternoon. I did in my 10-team league and expect him to sit there for a while.

Waiver Wire: American League

2007-04-24T09:35:00.000-05:00

Again everyone, sorry this is late. In two weeks this sort of thing won't happen anymore. Here we go!

American League

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.

Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.

Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.

Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.

Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.

Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Taylor Tankersley Watch

2007-04-23T20:56:00.000-05:00

For those of you into speculation on closers, Taylor Tankersley got one step closer to taking the job in Florida tonight. Henry Owens gave up two runs and had to be removed from the game with 2 outs in the ninth and a runner on second. Taylor Tankersley is the logical choice to be next in line as he was the favorite in January before his injury, pitched well in the majors last year, and has pitched well thus far in 2007.

Owens's peripherals are not especially good this year, but I wouldn't bench him yet. Saves are saves and a couple of runs here or there from a closer isn't the end of the world. In deep leagues, Tankersley is probably already owned, but if he's not you should jump on him. If Owens continues like this Tankersley could have the job within two weeks.

Keep a close eye on this situation. If Tankersley is to take the job I don't see him giving it up before the end of the year and for years to come. Matt Lindstrom and Kevin Gregg are darkhorse candidates for the job, but I truly think Tankersley will get the next shot.

Philip Hughes Called Up!

2007-04-23T18:08:00.000-05:00

For those of your looking for Starting Pitching help (like myself, losing Brett Myers to the Bullpen, Felix Hernandez to an injury, and Scott Olsen to terrible play), Philip Hughes will be called up by the Yankees to start Thursday's game against the Toronto Blue Jays.

One of my favorite pitching prospects, Hughes should be a top pitcher for years to come. Whether or not he will reach expectations this year is yet to be seen, but he has the minor league resume to allow us to think he may be ready. His command was apparently shaky this spring, but if he can strike out 7.5 per 9 IP, walk 3 per 9 IP, and get a 50% GB Rate he could end up as the AL Rookie of the Year. I've touted Hughes several times already this year, so to read more about him check out those pieces.

Hughes has not yet been added to Yahoo! leagues (quite possibly the thing I hate most about them), and if last year was any indication it could be as late as Saturday before he is available to pick up. Constantly monitor the Yahoo! free agent pool, and snag Hughes when he becomes available.

Two other top SP prospects who could have an immediate impact upon being called up are Tim Lincecum (SF) and Adam Miller (CLE). Watch for these guys as well.

Mailbag: A-Rod or Pujols?

2007-04-23T16:30:00.000-05:00

I have been asked by a few readers recently who the better fantasy player for this year is: Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez.

My response:
"Albert Pujols is the better option, by a laughably huge margin. This margin is even greater when comparing them as just baseball players without the whole fantasy aspect. I was quite disturbed when I was watching, I believe it was PTI, a couple of weeks ago, and this exact question was posed. I didn't even really see how it was a legitimate question.

Power Hitting. It could be predicted using Hit Tracker's Just Enough/Plenty/No Doubt method that Alex Rodriguez was due to hit more HRs this year, perhaps even eclipsing 50, but it could also be predicted that Albert Pujols would hit more than the 49 he hit last year, with 55 or perhaps even 60 a reachable goal.
Winner: Pujols

Contact Hitting. Albert Pujols consistently has a 90% Contact Rate, while A-Rod's has dropped from 78% in 2004 to 75% in 2006. A-Rod's Line Drive Percentage was around 15.5% for 2004 and 2005 and reached 18% in 2006. Pujols's average over that span was 18%. Directly related to contact percentage, I feel like Pujols's K rate should be noted. He strikes out in less than 10% of At-Bats. That is amazing considering his power. Both take their fare share of walks (although Pujols takes more) which, using Shandler's system, indicates they are both selective. Pujols's Contact Rate puts him on top.
Winner: Pujols

Patience. We discussed this in the Contact Hitting section. Both take walks; Pujols takes more.
Winner: Pujols

Running. This is an easy one to see. Pujols stole 16 in 2005, but came back down to earth in 2006 with 7. A-Rod stole 28, 21, and 15 in 2004, 2005, and 2006 respectively. He's the clear winner.
Winner: A-Rod

Lineup. Both hit in very good lineups. A-Rod has the likes of Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi helping him out, while Mr. Pujols has Scott Rolen, Chris Duncan, Jim Edmonds, and David Eckstein. You gotta give the edge to A-Rod, although Pujols should have no trouble finding RBIs and Runs being as good as he is.
Winner: A-Rod

Just tallying up the scores make this seem like an even match up (Pujols: 3, A-Rod: 2), but it is not. Pujols should have a much higher Batting Average than A-Rod and probably 10 more HRs. Because of this (and his fantastic on-base ability which is only helped by all of his intentional walks) he will score a ton of runs and have a high number of RBIs. It could be argued that A-Rod will get more, but once these numbers go over 110-115, it really doesn't matter much. The difference between A-Rod and Pujols in Runs and RBIs should be less than 10. A-Rod will grab 5 or 10 more steals, but this is no compensation. Pujols is clearly the better fantasy player, and in the world of baseball where RBIs and Runs actually mean very little, Albert Pujols clearly the better player."

Let your feelings be known about this issue!

State of The Saberoticians

2007-04-21T19:24:00.000-05:00

As you have probably realized, I haven't had a lot of time to post recently. This will all change in two weeks when summer begins! Until then, please stay with me as I post whenever I have free time. You also have probably realized that I haven't released a set of hitter projections. I won't be doing them for this year. Instead of giving you a lower quality of projections, I will simply work all summer and all winter to continue to improve an already amazing system.

If you read the previous post, you'll see that I will soon be coming up with an improved Batting Average system. I also have been working on the Run and RBI formulas based on lineup position and surrounding batters. For HRs, I think the Just Enough/Plenty/No Doubt system used by Hit Tracker is pretty good. Of course I will spend time in the summer looking for improvements, but this system seems pretty solid. I haven't discussed my SB system on here yet, but I feel as though it is strong as well. Perhaps I'll go into this summer, but if not I definately will in the off-season.

As far as this season goes, I have nearly all of the components to tell if a player is a good Fantasy contributor or not, I just haven't perfected it to the point where I can put an exact numeric value on players.

That being said, I think my pitching system is very strong. Some of my favorite pitchers haven't lived up to expectations yet this year (a good number have), and I'll discuss some of them later on. There are reasons for all of their performances, good or bad.

In closing, my Fantasy Baseball Projection system isn't complete yet, but it is very close. And when it is complete, it will be amazing. I am drooling over the thought of the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. Anyway, I guess that's it.

Contact Hitting: Revisited

2007-04-21T18:17:00.000-05:00

A while back I posted my Batting Average projections for players. In the comments section, somebody noticed that Neifi Perez was down for a batting average of around .290. Neifi Perez, however, is a terrible hitter and will get nowhere near this number. I said I would look into what was going on. I have recently begun to do so.

When Ron Shandler projects batting averages, he considers two factors very important: contact percentage and walk rate. Contact percentage deals with the concept that the more balls a player puts in play, the more balls will fall for hits. Walk rate is a way of measuring selectivity. From what I've heard, Shandler thinks that the more walks a player takes, the better the pitches are that he ultimately decides to swing at and the better percentage of their balls in play will actually fall for hits.

My old formula did not take selectivity into account, but the new one will. I even believe that I've come up with a better way to determine selectivity than Shandler. Using data from retrosheet.org, I have put together a list for the past few years of the types of pitches each batter sees: swinging strikes, called strikes, fouls, balls, and a few more. I've only recently compiled this list and have not yet tried to analyze it, but I believe that by looking deeper into an at-bat (instead of simply looking at the outcome of it), we will be better able to determine selectivity of a hitter.

I still have to work more with these numbers, but off the top of my head I think this makes sense. The more pitches a batter doesn't swing at (called strikes and balls), the pickier he is about the ones he will swing at. I believe that this will prove to be key in gaining a better understanding of hitting selectivity.

I will let you know when I find some conclusive results.

Brett Myers: Revisited

2007-04-18T22:25:00.000-05:00

OK. Now that I'm calmer and I've gotten some work out of the way, I'll discuss the Brett Myers situation. I, along with anyone else who follows Sabermetrics and probably most people who follow baseball, realize that this was one of the worst decisions the Phillies could make. The fact is, though, that there is nothing we - as fans or fantasy players - can do to change it. So what do we do?

Hold onto Brett Myers. Do not drop him. If someone in your league does, grab him quickly. Myers has too much talent for Philadelphia to waste in the bullpen. It could be argued that if Philly realized this they wouldn't have put him there in the first place, but that is besides the point.

Then, hope for one of two situations to occur.
1. Best Case - Philly realizes next week that they made a huge mistake and put him back in the rotation. Hopefully this will take place sooner rather than later, but for now we need to wait it out.
2. Not as Good but Better than Setup Man Case - Tom Gordon gets hurt (I know, it's awful to wish harm on another human being) and Myers steps in to close. If this happens, you should look to trade him for a good Starting Pitcher (preferably one whose GM is not Pat Gillick).

So there you have it. Hang onto him for at least a couple of weeks and see what happens. Do not sell low, and do not drop him.

Expect a quite a few posts either tomorrow or Friday in addition to a statement about the current status of the Saberoticians.

Shocked, Awed, and Angry: Brett Myers

2007-04-18T19:36:00.000-05:00

I cannot believe what I've just read. In quite possibly the dumbest baseball move since the trade of Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz for Victor Zambrano, Brett Myers has been sent to the bullpen by the Philadelphia Phillies. Owning him in several of my leagues, you can imagine how upset I am. I can't even think of the fantasy ramifications of this at the moment... I am simply fuming.

As mentioned in Moneyball, Pat Gillick (GM of the Phillies) does not buy into Sabermetrics, and is one of the worse GMs because of it. But even I did not think he was this stupid. Brett Myers is their second best pitcher, and that is only because another young phenom - Cole Hamels - is #1. I will be back in a little bit after I decide how to best proceed with this. Don't drop Myers yet, and I'll let you know what we should do a little later tonight.

While I'm not quite in the mood to laugh yet over this, a quote at Rotoworld forced my hand:
"Short of turning Ryan Howard into a shortstop and benching Jimmy Rollins, we can't think of anything else the Phillies could have done to better sabotage their chances for this year."

Waiver Wire - National League

2007-04-16T19:39:00.000-05:00

Here is the National League edition of Waiver Wire for this week. Again, most weeks this will be out on Saturday or Sunday. Enjoy.

National League

Henry Owens | FLA | CL - The Jasor Frasor of the National League. He hasn't pitched exceptionally well - peripheral wise - so far this year, but if his dominance in AA last year was any indication, that could change very quickly. Should be good for some saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - A highly overlooked player on draft day, I own Edwin in a couple of leagues. If his owner in your league decides to drop him, pounce on him and wait for the rebound. His Contact Rate is down from last year, but his LD Percentage and BB rates are up. His .241 BABIP won't stick. Got unlucky with HRs last year, so expect a good BA in addition to 20-25 HRs and 10 or so SBs in 2007. He hits in a good lineup, so he should get his fair share of RBIs and Runs too.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Perhaps my favorite rookie this year. Quentin had an 86% Contact Rate and 19% Line Drive rate in the minors last year, in addition to 9 HRs and 33 2Bs and 3Bs in 318 ABs. His 11.4% BB rate is also very good. He is hitting 5th tonight ahead of Byrnes, Hudson, and Tracy and behind Conor Jackson and Chris Young. If he ends up batting further down his value may diminish, but Quentin is a good player and there are a lot of players currently on rosters in my leagues that I'd take him over. Even more valuable in keeper leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Expected to bat leadoff, the Diamondbacks now have him batting at the bottom of the order. If he can pick up his game he may get the job, but Young still is valuable as a bench player as is. An 82% LD Rate and 15% LD Rate in the minors last year are nothing to drool over, but an 11.2% BB rate is. This could help him reach 20 SBs. He also has some power, hitting 21 HRs and 36 2Bs and 3Bs last year.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Johnson is getting unlucky, so if his owner drops him, or if he has been on your waiver wire from the start, consider picking him up. We don't have a ton of information to go by, but he has a 90% Contact and 19% Walk rate so far. His 11% LD Rate is something to worry about, but hes got some pop in his bat and could net some cheap HRs. 15-20 SBs is also a possibility. Hitting atop the Braves lineup should net him a ton of Runs, especially if he can keep a good BB rate.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Mike Pelfrey | NYM | SP - Pelfrey is a guy with great numbers last year in the minors. He has the benefit of playing with a good offense and bullpen, so if his numbers translate well to the major he could end up being a huge bargain.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Penny | LAD | SP - Won't keep up this pace, but always seems to have a K/BB over 2. He is struggling mightily with that this year, and he'd need to K more guys to be productive. His GB Percentage is always good (although highly inflated so far this year), and Penny could be good back end guy for a lot of fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Could be valuable in deep leagues, especially if he gets his GB Percentage back up to its 2005 and 2006 level. He won't get a ton of Ks, but he seems to have good control and a good offense to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP - The favorite for saves at the beginning of the calendar year, Tankersley is just off the DL. Owens is the closer for now, but Tankersley has the stuff to take over if he falters.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jorge Julio | FLA | RP - Owens hasn't posted great peripherals yet this year and has yet to strikeout a batter. It is still possible that Julio closes some games this year if he can get back on track.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Lidge | HOU | RP - Similar situation to Julio. I don't expect Wheeler to falter, but if Lidge regains his dominance, which he certainly could (his peripherals aren't bad), he may take the job back by default.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings didn't have great numbers in the minors last year and doesn't have great ones in the majors either. Expect his Ks to go down and his ERA to go up.
Recommendation: Avoid in all leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Without a starting gig, Hamilton is not worth even a bench spot in mixed leagues. If Freel or Griffey or someone gets hurt, he might be worth something. For now avoid him unless you're in a deep AL-only league.
Recommendation: Avoid in mixed leagues. Should be watched in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

James Loney | LAD | 1B - One of my favorite minor leaguers. Will have some value if promoted and given ABs.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

UPDATE:
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum has now been made a starting pitcher. Dominant in 2 minor league starts thus far, could be up with the big club some time this year. If his numbers translate fairly well, Lincecum could be good pitcher for fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

Waiver Wire - American League

2007-04-16T15:10:00.000-05:00

OK. While it would be nice to think we'll never need to use the waiver wire throughout the season, that we have drafted a perfect team, that is simply not the case. Every fantasy champion uses the waiver wire at some point during the season, and the guys who win usually are successful in doing so. Each week I will give you a list of players, broken down by league, who you should either consider picking up or avoiding. This does not mean that you should pick up every player mentioned, just that if it suits the needs of your team this player may be a good choice.

You will usually see this on Saturday or Sunday, but as I was busy this weekend it is a little late.

American League

Jason Frasor | TOR | CL - If Frasor is still available in your league and you need closer help, pick him up immediately. Ryan's injury may be serious, and at the very least Frasor should pick Toronto's saves for the next two weeks. He's a good pitcher and should keep the job for the remainder of Ryan's DL stay, even if it is longer than a couple weeks.
UPDATE: Ryan is said to be out 4-6 weeks. Make Frasor your first Waiver Wire priority this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Al Reyes | TB | CL - If he's still out there, grab him. He doesn't seem to have much competition and has solid enough career numbers to avoid an implosion. 20% GB Percentage in 2007 is a bit unsettling, but it is still very early and we are looking at a small sample size.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Joakim Soria | KC | CL - If he is still available, Soria is another guy who should have a job closing for at least another couple of weeks. Won't get as many save opps as Frasor or Owens, but if you need saves Soria can get you a few on the cheap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Iwamura has played higher than most expected him to. I had no expectations going into the season as I haven't done any research on the Japanese transition to America, but Iwamura is certainly playing well. His BA will drop, but an 82% Contact Percentage is pretty good. He also has a 30% LD Percentage, which will also drop, but he could hit in the .285 range if it settles around 21%. His 24% Walk Percentage is incredible as well. His true value comes from his steals as a Third Basemen. Preseason his goal was 40, which may be a little unrealistic, but 25 SBs out of your 3B or CI is definitely a plus.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

David DeJesus | KC | OF - Always a subjective favorite of mine, his objective numbers aren't bad either. 86% Contact Rate is higher than past years, but his 21.4% LD Percentage is good. A 9.3% BB percentage also helps. He also should hit more HRs than last year; he's should be good for at least 15. He's got some speed, so 10 or 15 SBs isn't out of the question, although he's never reached either of those marks before. Royals lineup hurts his value, but he could be worthy of a bench spot depending on your team.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 10-team leagues, and should be owned in 12 and 14 team formats. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.

Mark Teahen | KC | 3B/OF - Wow, 3 Kansas City players in one week? We may not see this again. If Teahen has been dropped in your league, you may want to consider picking him up. While not as good as a similar valued, young, struggling 3B like Edwin Encarnacion, Teahen is a decent player. He has a great BB Percentage this year and it was above average last year, but a GB Percentage under 10 isn't so good. He should pick it up, but even his 15.9% of last year wasn't very good. His 60% Contact Rate is terrible, but if he gets it to his 2006 level of 78% he could be a serviceable backup. His power is due for a regression, but as a backup 3B you could do worse in deeper leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Worth a look in 10-team and should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Aaron Hill | TOR | MI - Hill is getting lucky. A .405 BABIP won't stick for anybody, much less Aaron Hill. He's sporting the lowest Contact Percentage and LD Percentage of his career, but if he can them both to career averages he could be a decent reserve MI in deep leagues the rest of the way. Avoid the temptation to take him in shallow leagues, as a .290 average and 5 HRs is what you should expect out of him
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep 12 team leagues, should probably be owned in 14 team leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Akinori Otsuka | TEX | RP - Gagne hasn't been healthy in two years and could go down at any time, so stashing Otsuka away in leagues where teams hold onto middle relievers might be a good idea. If he is on your team you might as well play him as he will get you a few extra Ks and have a small impact on ERA and WHIP. Won't help a lot, but won't hurt to play him while you wait out Gagne.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Another subjective favorite of mine, Dan Johnson had very good objective numbers in 2005, and is expected back from the DL early next month. Hopefully his vision correction surgery will help him revert to 2005 form. If he does he could be a steal off the Waiver Wire for many teams.
Recommendation: Monitor in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues. Monitor in all AL-only leagues.

Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Still in the minors, Miller is a guy to watch. He had fantastic numbers in the minors last year with high Ks, low BBs, and amazing GB numbers. If he gets the call anytime soon be sure to snatch him.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Another guy still in the minors, Hughes boasts similar minor league numbers to Miller. He probably won't be called up right now, even with Mussina, Pavano, and Wang on the DL, but if the Yankees pull a fast one on us jump on him. He - like Miller - should be up later in the year, so continually monitor the Yanks rotation.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.

Mailbag: Atkins/Hall/Jacobs for Thome/Wagner?

2007-04-13T16:27:00.000-05:00

Here's another question from our Fantasy Baseball Mailbag from an anonymous reader.

Our reader writes:

"Hey Derek, great blog.

If you have a moment, I wanted to know what you thought about this trade.

12 team, 5x5 head to head league (default settings).

My team:

C: Lo Duca, Barrett
1B: A. Gonazalez, M. Jacobs
2B: I. Kinsler
3B: D. Wright, G. Atkins, B. Hall
SS: B. Hall
OF: C. Crawford, B. Abreu, R. Ibanez
SP: G. Maddux, J. Smoltz, C. Schilling, A. Wainright, D. Bush, K. Escobar, F. Garcia, C.C. Sabathia
RP: T. Saito, J. Soria

Here's the offer:

I give: B. Hall, G. Atkins and M. Jacobs

I Receive: J. Thome, B. Wagner

Pros:
1) I need closer help desperately, and there is no one, aside from Julio available, and Wagner is among the best.
2) With D. Wright at 3B, G. Atkins is expendable.
3) I just picked up Jacobs, and who knows if he'll keep up his current pace.
4) If Thome remains healthy, he should be a nice HR / RBI boost from the Util. slot.

Cons:
1) Thome is injury prone.
2) I'll be leaving my non-pitching roster a bit thin - picking up the likes of Khalil Greene (or R. Aurilia) at SS, and relying on A. Gonzalez at 1B.
3) I feel like this trade will force me into needing to trade away some pitching to balance out my roster.

What do you think?

Thanks."

I responded:

"Z,
I would most likely not pursue this trade. I believe Garrett Atkins will be a first round pick next year and quite possibly the first third baseman taken. I actually believe he could be a better hitter than A-Rod. I like him much more than David Wright, despite being a Mets fan and a huge David Wright fan. If you are going to trade a third Baseman, I would trade Wright. I think he is the inferior player and has more value. Try trading Wright for a guy like David Ortiz or Lance Berkman if you don't trust your 1B, or a guy like Manny Ramirez if you need an OF (Ibanez is only so-so).

I like Mike Jacobs. He is a good bet to approach 30 HRs this year and is a pretty good contact hitter with pretty good discipline. You could do a lot worse than him.

I also would not suggest trading for a closer. I've written a lot about closers over the past month, and if you read this post about my strategy concerning closers, I think you'll see that they are highly overvalued. While Wagner is a better pitcher than Soria or Saito, how many more saves do you expect him to get you? The Dodgers created 61 save opportunites last year while the Mets created 61. Wagner will probably get a few more saves than Saito, but this is not worth the price he would cost you. Working the waiver wire for cheaps saves is a much better alternative. Henry Owens should pick up a few for the Marlins over the next few weeks. Try picking him up.

Last, if you're looking for a high HR/RBI utility man, Frank Thomas is your guy. I wrote about him a few weeks ago. He's a great player who is severely undervalued.

One last bit of advice: trade Freddy Garcia for a better pitcher. Check out my rankings for some good targets.

I hope this helps! Good luck this season!"

Let your thoughts on this trade be known!

Joakim Soria to Close for Royals

2007-04-12T13:43:00.000-05:00

Joakim Soria is expected to take the place of David Riske as Kansas City's temporary closer. Octavio Dotel should be back within a few weeks, but until then Soria could provide some value in most leagues. If you're in need of a closer, try Soria. I like Owens better, but Soria is well worth a roster spot for those of you desperate for some cheap saves.

Julio Out As Marlins Closer... And Some Closer Ramblings

2007-04-12T13:30:00.000-05:00

I mentioned it a few days ago a little early, but it is now official. Jorge Julio is no longer the closer for the Florida Marlins. A replacement has not been announced, but one would think Henry Owens will be the one to get the call. He earned the save earlier in the week when Julio had pitched two consecutive nights and couldn't go a third. Taylor Tankerlsey is coming back from the DL and could take the job later on; I don't expect him to get it immediately. Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, and Lee Gardner are also in the mix. I have picked Owens up in the league I've mentioned on here before. I dropped Akinori Otsuka with Eric Gagne coming back tomorrow and set to take the closer's role immediately.

I'm very disappointed with Otsuka, who earned me (and anyone else who picked him up) just one save over the past two weeks. This wasn't his fault, obviously, but I was hoping for more. I'm hoping now that the team of Henry Owens and Salomon Torres (in addition to Octavio Dotel when he returns) can increase my standing in the Saves category... at least until another good reliever takes over a closer job.

That's the beauty of my strategy. Even though Otsuka didn't work out, he was a low risk player who cost me nothing. Owens and Torres are exactly the same. Eventually things will even out and I will be able to get 6 or 7 points for Saves (in my 10-team league), as opposed to the 2 I have now. I don't expect to finish the year with Owens or Torres on my team, but I'll take what I can get from them now and then take what I can get from other guys later. Add it all up and I - and hopefully you - will have amassed a good number of saves come September.

False Alert: Henry Owens

2007-04-09T21:56:00.000-05:00

False Alert. Owens is not the closer. Julio just got the night off. Sorry about that. If Julio continues to struggle though expect Owens to take over.

Henry Owens Picks Up the Save Tonight

2007-04-09T20:52:00.000-05:00

Missed out on Wheeler? Here's another chance at a decent closer. Henry Owens picked up the save in a close game tonight for the Marlins. He was filthy in the minors last year, and could be great this year. He hasn't struck a batter out yet this year, but he struck out a ton last year. Pick him up and see how he does over the next week or so. Taylor Tankersley will be coming back, so he could take the job at some point. Matt Lindstrom and Kevin Gregg are also in the mix, as is Jorge Julio.

Astros Promote Dan Wheeler to Closer

2007-04-09T15:35:00.000-05:00

Get to your waiver wire quickly folks. Dan Wheeler has just surpassed Brad Lidge as Astros closer. He may already be gone, but Wheeler is a great pitcher who should rack up some saves for Houston. His fantasy score is 9.22. Lidge is still a pretty good pitcher and could resume the role later in the year, but you should feel confident riding Wheeler for now.

Buying and Selling Fantasy Pitchers

2007-04-07T18:25:00.000-05:00

The first couple of weeks of the season are very similar to the last couple of weeks leading up to the season. Most fantasy baseball players have their teams set and are unwilling to trade players until they've seen something out of them. Two weeks of play will only sway the judgements of the most amateur of players. But since there's little else to talk about, at least for another week or two, we'll go over some players who may be good candidates to Sell High on or Buy Low on.

If you can stick to this principle - Buy Low and Sell High - and never do the opposite unless it is absolutely necessary, you should be in good shape througout the year. Even if I love a player, if he is getting lucky I will have no objections to trading him for a better player who is getting unlucky. Don't be afraid to make these kinds of trades. Let's take a look at a few pitchers who fit one of these bills.

Buy Low
Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb - Three of the top pitchers in the game ran into some rocks coming out of the gates. Don't fear; these guys will bounce back. If for whatever reason their owners are panicking, take advantage of it. Check my Starting Pitcher Rankings; player projections rarely change over the first couple of weeks.

Ben Sheets - Great first start, ugly second start. As long as he stays healthy Sheets should be one of the best in the game.

Scott Kazmir - Struck out 5 in 5 IP, but also walked 4. This explains his 9.00 ERA, but expect his BBs to go down as the year progresses.

Felix Hernandez - Why is a guy with 12 Ks and a 0.00 ERA in 8 IP listed under buy low? Because as I've said numerous times over the past few months, Felix is a serious threat to Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young. If you can still get him for his draft day value, do it now.

Mike Mussina - Good pitcher, bad first start. He's getting older, but he still should be a Top 15 pitcher this year. Too many walks his first time out, but that should improve. If it doesn't, hope he gets lucky and look to sell.

Sell High
Justin Verlander - Will take a big step back from last year. A 0.00 ERA in his first start may lead some to believe he will improve. Don't fall for it. Trade him if he's on your team.

John Lackey - Not as bad as Verlander, but not worth his draft day value. Also got a 0.00 ERA so far in addition to a Win, trade Lackey for a real Top 10 Starting Pitcher before you lose the opportunity to.

Dontrelle Willis - Cool nickname, overrated player because of it. He may be exciting to watch, but he's not as good as the hype suggests. With a Win and a 1.50 ERA so far, capitalize on his perceived value.

Jason Schmidt - Another guy whose hype doesn't match his performance. Even his surface numbers didn't look great the past couple of years. Dump him.

Tom Glavine - As a Mets fan I love Glavine, but he's not a good Fantasy pitcher. Sell him while you can.

Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - I went over him yesterday. He had a rough first outing. 5 BBs in 5 IP is not a good sign for a guy who needs improved command to succeed this year. It's still early though. I just wouldn't touch this guy. If you own him, wait until he has a couple of solid outings and trade him. You may not even need to wait if your league owners realize that one bad start is nothing to worry about (unless you're savvy and realize that Carlos Zambrano isn't that great to begin with).

Chris Young -Another guy I've expressed my disdain for. Perhaps a 4.76 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP isn't super terrible, but Young is a guy you should definately stay away from unless he's your 4th or 5th SP in a deep league.

Don't Sell High
Jake Peavy - Another guy I've touted as a fantastic fantasy pitcher. He pitched well in his first start. Don't expect this change as long as he's healthy.

Felix Hernandez - I realize he was also listed under Buy Low, but King Felix is for real. Make sure he is on all of your teams if at all possible.

Cole Hamels - Another young guy who shouldn't be underestimated. While his ERA will not remain at 0.00 the entire season, expect Hamels to be a Top 12 pitcher.

Overrated Player Alert: Carlos Zambrano

2007-04-06T17:13:00.000-05:00

In the latest addition of the Mailbag I advised our anonymous reader to reject his proposed to trade of Carlos Zambrano/Johnny Damon for Brandon Webb/Delmon Young. I then advised him to seek out another trade to rid himself of Carlos Zambrano while his value is high. Reader Keith asked me to explain my distrust of Zambrano. I believe I've briefly mentioned why I dislike Zambrano before, but I'll explain it again now.

Carlos Zambrano has a good K/9 (mid-to-high 8s). That's always a great start for a pitcher, especially for fantasy purposes. But then we look at Zambrano's BB/9. It was 4.84 in 2006. That is incredibly high and makes the type of success many fantasy leaguers expect of Zambrano extremely difficult to come by. Of course that was his highest mark since 2002, but even in 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 3.48 and 3.47, respectively. Zambrano does get a lot of groundballs, which is also a good thing. His career GB Percentage is 51.2%, exceptional for a power pitcher.

A player's K rate and GB rate are difficult to drastically improve, but a player's BB rate is not as difficult. Zambrano has the two easiest going in his favor, and an BB rate under 3 would make Zambrano the pitcher most people think he is. But he is not there. If he is going to make this leap, it is most likely to be in the next 3 years (his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons). 27 is usually the magic number, but it can vary.

Now that I've explained his makeup, I'll explain my dislike for him - this year anyway - as a fantasy pitcher. The crop of pitchers this year is incredible, and I was able to pinpoint some great values. With this being the case, using a 4th or 5th round pick on Zambrano seems foolish, especially when there are pitchers that already have the peripherals I think Zambrano is capable of attaining. Why hope for something to happen when there are players who are already doing it?

While he has a lower GB rate, Jake Peavy has a higher K rate and much lower BB rate. Felix Hernandez has a similar K rate, better GB rate, and a better BB rate. Felix is still just 20 and is entering his third season (another magic number for pitchers). Brett Myers has a similar K rate, better BB rate, and only a slightly worse GB Percentage.

I think you see my point. Why would you want to bank on a possibility when the reality is already there... and at a discounted price!

I strongly suggest anyone who owns Carlos Zambrano to trade him. He certainly could improve his BB rate this year and join the ranks of the elite pitchers, but the player's he'd be joining are already there. Trade him for one of these guys and get a little extra out of it.

Mailbag: Damon/Zambrano for Delmon/Webb?

2007-04-05T14:19:00.000-05:00

Another addition of the Mailbag is here. Keep sending your questions in and you might see it appear here.

An anonymous reader wrote:

"I would be interested in Delmon Young's numbers against those of J. Damon. This could possibly set up a trade of my C. Zambrano and Damon for B. Webb and Young.
Thanks"

I responded:

"I would probably not do this trade in your position. Of course it depends on your specific team and league, but strictly talent wise this trade is a bad one for you.

While Webb is an upgrade over Carlos Zambano, most people don't recognize this. Their perceived value is very close. Damon, however, is a better player than Delmon Young. Much of Delmon's value comes from his hype and his potential, while Damon is already at the point most people hope Delmon will reach this year.

Damon - 87% Contact Rate
Delmon - 81% Contact Rate

Damon - 19% LD Rate
Delmon - 18.5% LD Rate

Damon - 10% BB Rate
Delmon - 4.1% BB Rate

Now consider that Delmon's numbers were in the minors. Both are speedy, but Damon has proven major league speed; Delmon does not. The same goes for Power. Damon has a decent amount of pop in his bat, while Delmon's is all speculative; he has potential to be a good power hitter. Damon also hits in the better lineup.

Definately do not do this trade. I would, however, trade Zambrano while his value is high (Jake Peavy would be a good target).

I hope this helps."

Comment away if you agree or disagree with me! Also, keep sending you're questions in!

Fantasy Football Sabermetrics

2007-04-04T12:10:00.000-05:00

I've had a decent response so far to the idea of Fantasy Football Sabermetrics and I have begun to look into it a little bit. Anyone else who would be interested in this please let me know as soon as you can. Please either comment on the original post or email me. Thanks!

Another Interesting Home Run Study

2007-04-04T12:06:00.000-05:00

Today the HardBall Times posted their own study on HRs which I find to have a lot of merit. It talks about the distances of HRs and who got lucky and unlucky. They dig deeper into HRs than I had previously even thought about. This is something I will surely look into calculating myself as the year progresses. Good job guys.