tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post7577467479891301390..comments2019-04-20T18:45:48.177-05:00Comments on The Saberoticians - Fantasy Baseball Advice: Pitchers and 'Hitability'Derek Cartyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15051667211745800764noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-79146201946990381182007-05-17T21:02:00.000-05:002007-05-17T21:02:00.000-05:00I think there are a couple guys who defy this...Zi...I think there are a couple guys who defy this...Zito is the first one that comes to mind (if someone wants to pull up his stats, I'm pretty sure is numbers are always well-below league average). I think the overall numbers tend to be between .290-.300 for just about every season, which I think has held close to true over history. The thing that I think is worth looking at are the types of batted balls. Line drive percentage is often looked at as a positive for batters, and should also be looked at as a negative for pitchers. The short flyball (popup) has the lowest probability of being a base hit, so I believe that pitchers who manage to induce the highest frequency of popups and weakly-hit grounders (I'm not sure if that's tracked) tend to have the lowest BABIP. SLG% against is another interesting thing to look at, as most extra base hits are really driven balls, whereas a guy like Webb tends to give up a higher ratio of seeing-eye singles.<BR/><BR/>On another note, I'd love to see a further in-depth analysis of Atkins. I have him in one league, and am trying to buy-low in another, and am just curious if any of his peripherals look way out of whack.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15369708521456303527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-40770179674964232162007-05-17T19:44:00.000-05:002007-05-17T19:44:00.000-05:00Anonymous and Anonymous both make good points. And...Anonymous and Anonymous both make good points. And, even if the BABIP isn't significantly different between good and bad pitchers, there surely is a big difference (obviously) between the two groups of pitchers for what they allow "put in play" in the first place. <BR/><BR/>Aside from that, and just looking at BABIP by itself, I'm still a little skeptical and not quite sold on it, because homeruns get excluded, by definition. Surely, any ball that was hit so hard as to have been a homerun is more likely to have otherwise been a fair batted ball in play than out if there were no fence. I understand since there's no way to say for sure, especially on a HR that just goes over the fence out of reach of an OF'er, but still, probabilistically-speaking, excluding all HR's with one broad stroke, seems to me to bias the BABIP figures downward for bad pitchers that give up a lot of gopher balls and could even make them appear to be "unlucky" to have such a high ERA based on their "low" BABIP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-46842116817330061842007-05-17T17:51:00.000-05:002007-05-17T17:51:00.000-05:00I agree with your assesment, but i think you shoul...I agree with your assesment, but i think you should definitely include 10 pitchers that played for many season that arent as good. Lets see if they fair differently. That could change the entire thinking behind BABIP if the results are well above 290.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-60599707828768097632007-05-17T11:58:00.000-05:002007-05-17T11:58:00.000-05:00It's hard to put much stock into some of these num...It's hard to put much stock into some of these number because it weighs against the strikeout. Say a pitcher like Johnson faces 30 batters, strikes out 12 and gives up 6 hits. The BABIP would be .333 for him. Compare that to a guy like Glavine who faces 30 hitters, strikes out 3 and gives up 9 hits. His BABIP would be the same. So, are they equally hitable? <BR/><BR/>You have to also figure in, that not every ball put in play is equal. Some are hit hard and others are dribblers. Guys like Rivera have a good number of balls put in play, but most are rather weekly hit.<BR/><BR/>I don't know that there is a stat that can determine a pitchers overall hitability. It's more of a judgement thing from watching how hard he is hit. It is interesting to see how close the numbers are though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-26404090955907477692007-05-17T10:19:00.000-05:002007-05-17T10:19:00.000-05:00Interesting article. I know that BABIP is becoming...Interesting article. I know that BABIP is becoming commonly accepted as a universal baseball law in recent years, against all intuition, and your figures here for some of the best pitchers of the current generation fall in line with that theory, but it doesn't show when the hits come, only that if they do give up a hit (that stays in the park) that they have pretty much the same relative likelihood of falling in or not.<BR/><BR/>But, the great pitchers seem to come up with a timely strikeout or groundball-induced double play ball; they have better control (K/BB) and they keep the ball in the park (low HR/9). Basically, they generally, do a better job keeping hitters off balance and scattering their hits or "preventing them" in the first place.<BR/><BR/>Also, it's be interesting to see how hard these pitchers' balls in play are, on average, to lessor pitchers. I suspect these pitchers surrender fewer 2B's and 3B's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-40011640223850027802007-05-17T09:45:00.000-05:002007-05-17T09:45:00.000-05:00good stuff guys. quick comment:a pitcher can also...good stuff guys. quick comment:<BR/><BR/>a pitcher can also control how hard balls are hit. this does not necessarily mean the batted balls that are hit 'hard' become 'hits', but a pitcher has some influence over the amount of solid contact. <BR/><BR/>also, according to bp league avg babip for 2006 was about .305. in 2005 it was .298. in 2004 it was .300. so you should probably up your .290 number. when i looked at babip for all pitchers in 2006, a quick glance shows the 'better' pitchers below the league average (santana at .273, zambrano at .259, carpenter at .278, etc). guys like buehrle and millwood and dontrelle were all above league average.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5799143440468005168.post-73582465548823542152007-05-17T00:27:00.000-05:002007-05-17T00:27:00.000-05:00It would be interesting to see a similar list of a...It would be interesting to see a similar list of average pitchers and bad pitchers.<BR/><BR/>Nice blog by the way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com