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Monday, April 2, 2007

Projected Batting Averages and On-Base Percentages

UPDATE: Since we have changed our formulas for predicting Batting Average and On-Base Percentage, we've taken off these rankings.

5 comments:

Biby Cletus said...

nice poll,interesting stuff you have got here keep up the good work.will be back soon.

regards Biby - Blog

Anonymous said...

You might want to have a quick check in your formula. Neifi Perez, considered by some to be the worst hitter in all of baseball (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-real-chase/), projected for .297? Though I do believe in the value of sabermetrics, this is clearly an instance where the numbers don't back up what happens on the field.

Keith said...

Wow, I a 0.659 OBP for Bonds? That might be a pretty good season.

Already predicting a .300 average for Kinsler...the guy has skills, but I'm not sure if he's there quite yet.

Do you project rookies as well? Is there some kind of reasonable correlation factor between certain minor leagues and the majors?

Derek Carty said...

Very interesting comment. I appreciate it. It's late now but I will surely look into this tomorrow and see what's what. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

Derek Carty said...

I'm going to take a look into the Neifi Perez situation now and see what I can find. I'll also double check Bonds, as .659 seems extremely high, even for him.

As for Kinsler (assuming I didn't make a careless error when inputing my formula), a .300 average seems fairly likely. He had an 83% contact rate, 20% LD rate, nearly a 9% BB rate, 13 True HRs, and 10 IF Hits. Add it up, and I think he'll be able to chip his way to .300.

As for rookies, I was planning on writing about my favorites soon, but I haven't done much research into how minor league numbers correlate with major league ones. I do have Minor League batting averages using these factors and you should be seeing those shortly.