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Sunday, May 20, 2007

A Look at Tim Lincecum

Alright, so Tim Lincecum has pitched in 3 games so far, and today the Giants confirmed that he will remain in the starting rotation once Russ Ortiz returns from the DL. Ortiz will move to the bullpen and should become obsolete for Fantasy Baseball purposes. So what should we expect from Lincecum for the rest of the year?

His season line looks like this, through 3 starts:
10.31 K/9
3.44 BB/9
45.7% GB rate

Here is the breakdown of his three starts:
4.1 IP 5 K 5 BB 33% GB
7.0 IP 6 K 1 BB 57% GB
7.0 IP 10 K 1 BB 38% GB

His K/BB has improved every start, and he seems to have shown that he can wrack up the strikeouts even at this level. His GB has fluctuated, but I think it could settle in at around 48%. That, combined with his high Ks alone makes him an above average pitcher. The main concern with Lincecum coming up was his control. If he came up and started walking a lot of batters, he wouldn't be worth a roster spot in a lot of leagues. However, he has walked just two batters in his last 14 IPs, so this may not be an issue.

We are looking at a small sample size here, but for now I think Lincecum looks like a keeper. If he can keep his BB rate steady, he could end up being a Top 12-15 Starting Pitcher. In the leagues I own him, I'm hanging tight.


Anonymous said...

So would you recommend trading Aaron Harang for Lincecum? It's a keeper league, by the way.

Also, I'd enjoy a post on John Buck... is he really breaking out during his age-27 season?

Derek Carty said...

Yes, I would definitely make that trade, especially in a keeper league.

Sure, I'll take a look at Buck either later today or tomorrow.