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Thursday, May 10, 2007

More On Risk

Yesterday I talked about exploiting Risk for the betterment of your Fantasy Baseball Team. Today I'll go over some guys who might make good targets to acquire cheaply and apply this strategy with.

One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.

Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.

Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.

Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.

Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.


Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire


Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.


Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire


Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.


Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.

Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.

I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.

2 comments:

Art Dinkin said...

I am a fantasy baseball rookie so please forgive my ignorance. When you refer to platooning two players, are you suggesting that you play both... one at a position and the other as a utility player? Or are you suggesting that you play each half the time in the same slot?

If you are suggesting the later, how do you know when to bench and when to activate each player? With my luck I would have them on the bench when they got hot and in my lineup when they were cold!

Derek Carty said...

No need to apologize. I probably should have chosen a better word. By platoon, I mean that the player should serve more as his backup. If you were to acquire one of the primary players, it would fit with this strategy to also acquire a supplementary player that would be in your lineup when the primary player either got injured or took days off.