A couple of hours ago I ran a comparison on ProTrades All-Lucky Team and the Saberoticians findings. The results were very similar. Now we'll take a look at ProTrade's All-Unlucky Team and how it compares to our findings. The format is the same: Position, Player, ProTrade Expected Batting Average, Saberoticians Expected Average.
C - Mike Piazza - .308 - .307
1B - Jason Giambi - .270 - .271
2B - Josh Barfield - .297 - .280
SS - Jimmy Rollins - .289 - .300
3B - Garrett Atkins - .339 - .324
OF - Carlos Beltran - .298 - .288
OF - Andruw Jones - .279 - .293
OF - Adam Dunn - .248 - .249
We see similar results to the All-Lucky Team. Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi, and Adam Dunn are within .001 of each other. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran are within .011 of each other. With Garrett Atkins there is a .015 difference, although we both agree he was amazing.
I'm unsure why Barfield is so high for them, but their system is different than mine. I see an 80% Contact Rate, 18% Line Drive Rate, 6% BB Rate, 11 Flyball HRs and 13 Infield Hits. In my system this equates to a .280 Average. Perhaps the balls he put in play were extraordinarily well-hit and they just didn't fall. These types of things don't show up in my system as I don't have access to every batted ball.
Things can get a little murky when dealing with guys with speed. Beltran, Rollins, and Jones all have wheels, and Barfield isn't slow either.
All in all though, I think we see that batted balls provide an interesting look at things, but we can also get pretty darn close using these ratios too.
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