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Thursday, March 22, 2007

Overhyped Player: SP Chris Young

San Diego's Chris Young.
  • has him at #16 (ahead of Schilling, Felix, Sheets, Myers, Burnett, Escobar, and Harden)
  • Brandon Funston at Yahoo! has him as #18 (in the same tier as Smoltz, Sheets, and Felix and one ahead of Schilling)
  • ESPN has him at #18 (ahead of Sabathia, Hamels, Burnett, Schilling, Mussina, and Vazquez)
  • RotoWorld has him at #23 (ahead of Kazmir, Hamels, Haren, and Burnett)
  • The Saberoticians have him at #33 (behind all of the aformentioned players)

  • Chris Young is a decent pitcher with a little upside. He is entering his third year, a prime breakout year, but as we know this doesn't always lead to success.

    Young is very good a striking guys out (8.23 K/9 in 2006), but his command isn't bad. He had a 3.46 BB/9 in 2006, but had a 2.46 BB/9 in 2005. He will need to get back to that level in order to be successful this year. He has a horrendous GB Percentage - 25.4% in 2006! It is very difficult to become a good pitcher with a GB Percentage that low. It was 32.7% in 2005, but even that is terrible.

    Chris Young was aided last year by an absurd .228 Batting Average on Balls in Play. League average is close to .290. Chris Young's ERA could have been near 5.00 had his BABIP been .290 and we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion right now. He have up one more HR than he should have, and I wouldn't expect any fewer than 30 HRs for 2007 in Young pitchers 200 innings.

    All in all, Young is a decent pitcher with room to improve on his BB/9 and might even jump a little in K/9 (although a slight regression is also possible). He is just being drafted too early for my liking, and hopefully for yours too.


    Anonymous said...

    Thanks for the alert. I was someone who benefited from Young's good year last year. I agree that he's not likely to be as good this year, but he should still be worth something. I picked him up last year for three reasons.

    1. He was moving from AL to NL.
    2. He had good strikeouts, and
    3. He was going to be pitching in SD, so at least I could use him for his home games if not for more.

    He is still has all 3 factors going for him and should be decent this year.

    One addtional note of caution. Look at his home/road split from last year. He was much better on the road. Why was that? Was all his luck on the road?

    Derek Carty said...

    Thanks for your comments. I agree that Young should have a decent year. I just don't agree that he is as good as most rankings say he is. I still have him as #33; I certainly don't think he's terrible - just terribly overrated. His strikeouts help him a lot and without them he would be nothing more than average... or worse.

    As far as his home/road splits, you are absolutely correct. He got lucky at home, but he got incredibly lucky on the road. Young had a .240 BABIP at Home and .176 BABIP on the Road, which helps explain his 2.41 Road ERA. He also gave up 8 fewer HRs on the Road, so that contributes as well.

    Thanks for your insight.