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Saturday, April 21, 2007

State of The Saberoticians

As you have probably realized, I haven't had a lot of time to post recently. This will all change in two weeks when summer begins! Until then, please stay with me as I post whenever I have free time. You also have probably realized that I haven't released a set of hitter projections. I won't be doing them for this year. Instead of giving you a lower quality of projections, I will simply work all summer and all winter to continue to improve an already amazing system.

If you read the previous post, you'll see that I will soon be coming up with an improved Batting Average system. I also have been working on the Run and RBI formulas based on lineup position and surrounding batters. For HRs, I think the Just Enough/Plenty/No Doubt system used by Hit Tracker is pretty good. Of course I will spend time in the summer looking for improvements, but this system seems pretty solid. I haven't discussed my SB system on here yet, but I feel as though it is strong as well. Perhaps I'll go into this summer, but if not I definately will in the off-season.

As far as this season goes, I have nearly all of the components to tell if a player is a good Fantasy contributor or not, I just haven't perfected it to the point where I can put an exact numeric value on players.

That being said, I think my pitching system is very strong. Some of my favorite pitchers haven't lived up to expectations yet this year (a good number have), and I'll discuss some of them later on. There are reasons for all of their performances, good or bad.

In closing, my Fantasy Baseball Projection system isn't complete yet, but it is very close. And when it is complete, it will be amazing. I am drooling over the thought of the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. Anyway, I guess that's it.


Anonymous said...

A few random things:

• Are you going to test your system (once it's complete) on past years to see how close it would have come to predicting what actually happened?

• What do you think about Pedro Martinez and Mark Mulder... will they come back to provide value this year? Which will provide more?

Good blog!

Derek Carty said...

Yes, I will be testing it on previous years and I will make sure to share the results with you.
Pedro will be effective for a handful of starts this year (possibly less), but isn't worth a bench spot. When 100% he is a Top 5-7 Fantasy Pitcher.
Mulder is decent, but again a bench spot shouldn't be wasted on him. He doesn't K a lot of guys and is overrated because he was part of Oakland's Big 3.
Pedro will get you quality for just a few starts, while Mulder will get quantity as he is expected back sooner.