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Thursday, April 5, 2007

Mailbag: Damon/Zambrano for Delmon/Webb?

Another addition of the Mailbag is here. Keep sending your questions in and you might see it appear here.

An anonymous reader wrote:

"I would be interested in Delmon Young's numbers against those of J. Damon. This could possibly set up a trade of my C. Zambrano and Damon for B. Webb and Young.

I responded:

"I would probably not do this trade in your position. Of course it depends on your specific team and league, but strictly talent wise this trade is a bad one for you.

While Webb is an upgrade over Carlos Zambano, most people don't recognize this. Their perceived value is very close. Damon, however, is a better player than Delmon Young. Much of Delmon's value comes from his hype and his potential, while Damon is already at the point most people hope Delmon will reach this year.

Damon - 87% Contact Rate
Delmon - 81% Contact Rate

Damon - 19% LD Rate
Delmon - 18.5% LD Rate

Damon - 10% BB Rate
Delmon - 4.1% BB Rate

Now consider that Delmon's numbers were in the minors. Both are speedy, but Damon has proven major league speed; Delmon does not. The same goes for Power. Damon has a decent amount of pop in his bat, while Delmon's is all speculative; he has potential to be a good power hitter. Damon also hits in the better lineup.

Definately do not do this trade. I would, however, trade Zambrano while his value is high (Jake Peavy would be a good target).

I hope this helps."

Comment away if you agree or disagree with me! Also, keep sending you're questions in!


Unknown said...

Can you go over your distrust of Zambrano? I know you like him less than most do, but I'm not exactly sure why. Is it the walk rate, the park, health concerns? Personally, I would take Zambrano over Webb, mainly because I think Webb is much more dependent on his defense (as is any ground ball pitcher), while Zambrano has the better K-rate, and if he improves upon his control, he could be truly elite. So, I'm just curious as to why you are down on big Z, since you obviously have a very sound numbers-based projection system.

Derek Carty said...

Keith. I would be happy to go over my distrust for Zambrano. I'll make a post right now.