Waiver Wire: American League

Again everyone, sorry this is late. In two weeks this sort of thing won't happen anymore. Here we go!

American League

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.

Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.

Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.

Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.

Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.

Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Mailbag: Furcal or Wang?

Here's another mailbag question. Keep them coming! I do my best to answer all of them and some I'll post on here, with your consent.

Evan wrote:
"Derek,

Thanks for the blog, helped me out during my draft. I've done fantasy
baseball before, but this year I'm taking it more seriously than in
the past (or at least I am for now).

I was wondering if you could post some advice about injured players.
I'm in a Yahoo head-to-head league, and I've got both Furcal and
Chien-Ming Wang on my team. The league has one DL spot, but I don't
have a backup shortstop. I'm not asking for any detailed advice, but
do you think I should hold on to both?"

I responded:
"I know exactly what I would do; I would try to get rid of Chien-Ming Wang. I don't like Wang as he will kill you in Ks. His ERA won't be that good - over 4 - and his WHIP will be over 1.30. Combined with a K/9 under 4 and you have a pitcher that doesn't deserve a roster spot. He will pick up wins playing on the Yankees, but I don't believe this justifies the hype surrounding him. I would immediately start trying to trade Wang. Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings and see if you can get a guy like Curt Schilling. Felix Hernandez would be great, but I doubt his owner would bite on that. If you can't nab Schilling, try for Mussina and then A.J. Burnett. Since it's a Yahoo! league you may be able to get a little extra with Burnett as they had him ranked low.

I like Furcal a lot this year. I have him down for a .299 Batting Average and a bunch of Steals. He also has a decent amount of pop for a SS and 12-15 HRs seems likely. He hits in a good lineup and a 100 Runs pace shouldn't be hard to come by, although my formula is still a work in progress. He won't get a ton of RBIs, but he still should be a top 5, possibly top 3 SS. Definitely keep Furcal and stash him on the DL if he misses any time, although yesterday he said he should be ready for Opening Day."

Let me know what you guys would do! And keep those Mailbag questions coming!

What about... Other Starting Pitchers

I was recently asked where some of these pitchers would rank:
1) Dontrelle Willis
2) Justin Verlander
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Ervin Santana
5) Chien-Ming Wang
6) Freddy Garcia
7) Ian Snell
8) Kevin Millwood
9) Anibal Sanchez
10)Jose Contreras
11)Chuck James
12)Jon Garland
13)Mark Buehrle
14)Tim Hudson
15)Cliff Lee

I think it would be a good idea to address some of these guys for those of you that might be thinking about drafting them. First off, anyone not in my Top 45 probably isn't a very good guy to pick. They will all have faults.

D-Train is a popular guy, but an overrated pitcher. Dontrelle, Contreras, Snell, Millwood, and Buehrle fall between #45 and #55. Snell has some potential to improve. He had a good K/9 and a decent GB Percentage. If he could keep the same GB Percentage and improve his control - the easiest of our 3 critical factors for young pitchers to improve - he could become a good fantasy pitcher. I wouldn't take him though just based on something he could do.

Verlander, while popularized by his seemingly great season last year, isn't that great. His low K/9 diminishes a lot of his value, and his K/BB barely made it over 2 last year. His GB Percentage is also a rather average 42%. He should have given up an extra 5 HRs last year.

Chien-Ming Wang is an interesting suspect. Despite his low K rate, he is a fairly effective pitcher. His GB Percentage is great (63%), but his K/BB is below 2. His lack of Ks makes him almost worthless in that category, and hurts his WHIP a lot. The less Ks you get, the more balls get put in play. The more balls put in play, the more turn into hits. His K/9 is so low he is rendered almost useless in two categories and therefore is a terrible fantasy option. His Fantasy Score was a poor 6.57, putting him near #100.

Arroyo, Santana, Garcia, Hudson, and Lee have low GB Percentages which makes them too susceptible to HRs in addition to low K rates. They are ranked between 60 and 80. Arroyo, Garcia, Hudson, Santana, Lee is the order in which them appear.

Anibal Sanchez appears about 7 spots below Santana. He had a terrible K/BB and low K/9 last year, but his minor league stats suggest both could improve. He's just not a risk that is necessary to take with so many proven players available this year.

Garland has great command and a good GB Percentage, but his K/9 below 5 makes him an unusable fantasy option, much like Wang. He is ranked worse than Wang though, outside the Top 100.

Chuck James is also outside the Top 100. He has an average K/9, but his control isn't very good. This could be improved, but it is unlikely he can also improve his GB Percentage to an acceptable point. It was an abysmal 27% last year.

I hope this clears things up about some of these well-known pitchers that I failed to include in my Top 45 Starting Pitcher Rankings.

A Final Note
Our rankings aren't meant to pick out guys who will do poorly as much as they are meant to pick out guys who will play well. Reducing risk by picking quality pitchers is usually the best strategy you can use.

Sources:
Batted ball data, as always, comes from The Hardball Times