Mailbag: Barry Bonds

Here's a Fantasy Baseball Mailbag question that just came in. I haven't talked too much about Barry Bonds yet this year, but I absolutely love him, especially when combined with a good OF to play on his off days.

Steve writes:

"Hey there,

Ive been reading your blog for a couple weeks now and I think you do a very good job & I respect your opinion. That being said, I am looking for some advice. I am semi-new to fantasy baseball, second season, and am starting to spend some serious time on my team. I drafted Barry Bonds very late in the draft and am thus far very impressed with what he has done for me but I fear that after he breaks the record he is going to fall off. I was looking at trading him but found that all of my friends in my league have personal problems with Mr. Bonds and don't want him on their team no matter what kind of numbers he puts up. What would you do in this situation?"

I responded:
"Hey Steve,
I also drafted Barry Bonds late all of my drafts and have been reaping the rewards. In your situation, I would simply sit tight with Bonds. While he certainly wants the record, I doubt he will stop putting up numbers once he gets it. The Giants are only three back in the NL West, and I bet he also wants to win a World Series. He is still 11 HRs away from breaking the record, and even if he quits baseball the day after he hits #756 you'd still get 22 HRs out of him for the year. Not bad for a late round pick.

I fully expect him to continue hitting for Contact and Power, though. His HRs have been rockets, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 35 or 40 this year. Hang onto Bonds (I will be in my leagues), and make a note of each player in your league that won't touch Bonds because of the issues surrounding him. In future drafts, target similar players once more information comes out in later rounds. You have to leave emotions and personal feelings out of Fantasy Baseball in order to be successful. Take advantage of this."


I know that there are mixed feelings about Barry Bonds, but regardless of his issues, the fact is he can produce for your Fantasy Baseball Team. In order to win, this is all that can matter. When you let personal feelings or team allegiances or anything like that get in the way, it becomes much more difficult to win a competitive Fantasy Baseball League.

Mailbag: Hanley/Chavez for Atkins/Dye

Alright. Here's our next Mailbag question from an anonymous reader.

The reader writes:
"Hello Derek,

Here is my question. 12 team mixed, head to head, 5x5 league with total bases in place of average. Here is what the offer is:

I get: Atkins, Dye

I trade: Hanley Ramirez and Eric Chavez

I realize on the surface it is a bad trade. However, I have Rafael Furcal on my bench. Thus, in essence I am also getting Furcal in the deal as I now free up my SS position (I have Hafner in my overall utility spot and I like a power hitter in my utility infield spot so I do not want to play both Furcal and Hanley). I would still have Damon, Vernon Wells, and Kinlser along with Furcal to steal some bases for me,

I downgrade from Ramirez to Furcal which is not that much of a downgrade, I get a potential upgrade from Chavez to Atkins, and I get Dye as an extra. I know that you love Atkins. Dye was bound to regress after last season, but what are his prospects for the remainder of the season? Plus, have your thoughts about Atkins changed any since he is still struggling?

Thanks! Sorry for the long message. I just really respect your opinion. "


My response:
"I would definitely make this trade. I still like Atkins, and he is one of my favorite Buy Low candidates right now. He's got a good Contact Rate (which should improve) and a good BB rate, and I fully expect him to raise his BA to at least .300. Based on HR data from 2006, his season was not a fluke, and I expect him to start hitting HRs shortly. He should hit at least his HR ratio from last year from here on out. 25 HRs by the end of the year seems likely, even though he only has 2 so far.

Dye is also quite good. He crushed a lot of balls last year, and a repeat HR performance would not shock me. His BA will be down from last year, but it should remain at a respectable level. He has a 75% Contact Rate and 8.2% BB rate, but I think the Contact Rate has a pretty good chance of improving a little bit. He hits in a pretty good lineup, so I expect Dye to be looked back on as a very good player come September.

Chavez is decent, but not great. I expect an above average BA and around 22 HRs, plus the luxury of hitting in a good lineup for RBIs and Runs, but I think Atkins is much better. Hanley is good, and I love the increased BB rate this year, but Furcal is plenty good enough to be your starting SS."

Mailbag: Oliver Perez, Anthony Reyes, and Cliff Lee

I've had a few questions about Oliver Perez lately, and today's first Mailbag will deal with two of them.

Mark writes:
"What do you think of Reyes? I love his peripherals, but giving up 3 or 4 earned runs every time out is getting old. I dropped him today to pick up Oliver Perez, who I had picked up and dropped earlier this year. I figure Perez will be more of a rollercoaster, but if I'm selective I could get better overall numbers from him."

I responded:
"Reyes is an interesting guy right now. He's got good peripherals, and he isn't getting unlucky with Hits or Home Runs. He just seems to be giving up a lot of Runs. This will change at some point (if he keeps up these peripherals), but I think Oliver Perez is better anyway. He'll get you more Ks, has a better offense, and has better peripherals. I don't like the low GB rate, but that won't change, and as long as he keeps the K/BB up he'll be a pretty good pitcher. Good job taking him over Reyes."

The other question regarding Oliver Perez came from an anoymous reader:

This reader wrote:
"I know that you are a mets fan, so please reassure me that Oliver Perez is not a bad option against the Yankees this weekend and that he is a better option than Cliff Lee at home against the Reds. "

I responded:
"I definitely would take Oliver Perez against the Yankees over Cliff Lee against the Reds. Perez has a good K/9 and K/BB, although I wish his GB% was higher. Cliff Lee though, doesn't have a good K/9 or K/BB or GB%. Go with Perez. He's putting up peripherals similar to his 2004. I'm very pleased to see this as a Mets fan."

All said, I like Perez, even more so than I did this off-season when I had him ranked as my #36 Starting Pitcher. I like Reyes second among these three pitchers, and Cliff Lee last.

Mailbag: Ryan Howard

Here's a mailbag question that I'm sure a lot of Ryan Howard owners are thinking:

Question:

"Derek,
Ryan Howard--stay patient with him, or should I be shopping him around?"


Here is my response:

"I don't own Ryan Howard in any of my leagues, but if I did this is how I would proceed. I would talk to the owners in my league and get a feel for how highly they value him. If I could get somebody of equal perceived value, I would do it. But I would not sell him low. All three of his HRs so far have been hit very far. By that logic, he should have hit a few that weren't as far, which he hasn't yet. He will do this eventually. His numbers last year indicate his power is real, and his numbers this year indicate the same thing.

Other Phillies struggling as well, but I expect them to start hitting. Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, and Burrell are all good players. Rowand isn't bad either. Howard should easily get over 110 RBIs and at least 100 Runs. He is walking a lot this year, and while this will come down a little he should score a good amount of Runs just based on his being on base a lot and hitting home runs. As far as HRs go, it isn't out of the question to expect 50 or 55 by year's end. I wouldn't even be shocked if he hit 60. His average will come down from last year as he swings and misses a lot of pitches and his Contact Rate isn't very good. He hits a lot of LDs (although it is a little low this year), so when he does put the ball in play it is often hit well.

In summation, Howard is still a good player who you should hold onto. He's getting a little unlucky with homers, and when the rest of the team starts to hit he will pick up his RBIs and Runs. His BA will be down from last year, but Howard is still a very good player. Don't trade him low.

If in a few weeks he starts to hit and a guy like Alex Rodriguez slows down, see if you can't make the trade. Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes (if you need steals), and David Ortiz are a few other guys I would consider trading him for. I hope this helps!"



Post your thoughts on Ryan Howard!

Mailbag: A-Rod or Pujols?

I have been asked by a few readers recently who the better fantasy player for this year is: Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez.

My response:
"Albert Pujols is the better option, by a laughably huge margin. This margin is even greater when comparing them as just baseball players without the whole fantasy aspect. I was quite disturbed when I was watching, I believe it was PTI, a couple of weeks ago, and this exact question was posed. I didn't even really see how it was a legitimate question.

Power Hitting. It could be predicted using Hit Tracker's Just Enough/Plenty/No Doubt method that Alex Rodriguez was due to hit more HRs this year, perhaps even eclipsing 50, but it could also be predicted that Albert Pujols would hit more than the 49 he hit last year, with 55 or perhaps even 60 a reachable goal.
Winner: Pujols

Contact Hitting. Albert Pujols consistently has a 90% Contact Rate, while A-Rod's has dropped from 78% in 2004 to 75% in 2006. A-Rod's Line Drive Percentage was around 15.5% for 2004 and 2005 and reached 18% in 2006. Pujols's average over that span was 18%. Directly related to contact percentage, I feel like Pujols's K rate should be noted. He strikes out in less than 10% of At-Bats. That is amazing considering his power. Both take their fare share of walks (although Pujols takes more) which, using Shandler's system, indicates they are both selective. Pujols's Contact Rate puts him on top.
Winner: Pujols

Patience. We discussed this in the Contact Hitting section. Both take walks; Pujols takes more.
Winner: Pujols

Running. This is an easy one to see. Pujols stole 16 in 2005, but came back down to earth in 2006 with 7. A-Rod stole 28, 21, and 15 in 2004, 2005, and 2006 respectively. He's the clear winner.
Winner: A-Rod

Lineup. Both hit in very good lineups. A-Rod has the likes of Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi helping him out, while Mr. Pujols has Scott Rolen, Chris Duncan, Jim Edmonds, and David Eckstein. You gotta give the edge to A-Rod, although Pujols should have no trouble finding RBIs and Runs being as good as he is.
Winner: A-Rod

Just tallying up the scores make this seem like an even match up (Pujols: 3, A-Rod: 2), but it is not. Pujols should have a much higher Batting Average than A-Rod and probably 10 more HRs. Because of this (and his fantastic on-base ability which is only helped by all of his intentional walks) he will score a ton of runs and have a high number of RBIs. It could be argued that A-Rod will get more, but once these numbers go over 110-115, it really doesn't matter much. The difference between A-Rod and Pujols in Runs and RBIs should be less than 10. A-Rod will grab 5 or 10 more steals, but this is no compensation. Pujols is clearly the better fantasy player, and in the world of baseball where RBIs and Runs actually mean very little, Albert Pujols clearly the better player."

Let your feelings be known about this issue!

Mailbag: Atkins/Hall/Jacobs for Thome/Wagner?

Here's another question from our Fantasy Baseball Mailbag from an anonymous reader.

Our reader writes:

"Hey Derek, great blog.

If you have a moment, I wanted to know what you thought about this trade.

12 team, 5x5 head to head league (default settings).

My team:

C: Lo Duca, Barrett
1B: A. Gonazalez, M. Jacobs
2B: I. Kinsler
3B: D. Wright, G. Atkins, B. Hall
SS: B. Hall
OF: C. Crawford, B. Abreu, R. Ibanez
SP: G. Maddux, J. Smoltz, C. Schilling, A. Wainright, D. Bush, K. Escobar, F. Garcia, C.C. Sabathia
RP: T. Saito, J. Soria

Here's the offer:

I give: B. Hall, G. Atkins and M. Jacobs

I Receive: J. Thome, B. Wagner

Pros:
1) I need closer help desperately, and there is no one, aside from Julio available, and Wagner is among the best.
2) With D. Wright at 3B, G. Atkins is expendable.
3) I just picked up Jacobs, and who knows if he'll keep up his current pace.
4) If Thome remains healthy, he should be a nice HR / RBI boost from the Util. slot.

Cons:
1) Thome is injury prone.
2) I'll be leaving my non-pitching roster a bit thin - picking up the likes of Khalil Greene (or R. Aurilia) at SS, and relying on A. Gonzalez at 1B.
3) I feel like this trade will force me into needing to trade away some pitching to balance out my roster.

What do you think?

Thanks."

I responded:

"Z,
I would most likely not pursue this trade. I believe Garrett Atkins will be a first round pick next year and quite possibly the first third baseman taken. I actually believe he could be a better hitter than A-Rod. I like him much more than David Wright, despite being a Mets fan and a huge David Wright fan. If you are going to trade a third Baseman, I would trade Wright. I think he is the inferior player and has more value. Try trading Wright for a guy like David Ortiz or Lance Berkman if you don't trust your 1B, or a guy like Manny Ramirez if you need an OF (Ibanez is only so-so).

I like Mike Jacobs. He is a good bet to approach 30 HRs this year and is a pretty good contact hitter with pretty good discipline. You could do a lot worse than him.

I also would not suggest trading for a closer. I've written a lot about closers over the past month, and if you read this post about my strategy concerning closers, I think you'll see that they are highly overvalued. While Wagner is a better pitcher than Soria or Saito, how many more saves do you expect him to get you? The Dodgers created 61 save opportunites last year while the Mets created 61. Wagner will probably get a few more saves than Saito, but this is not worth the price he would cost you. Working the waiver wire for cheaps saves is a much better alternative. Henry Owens should pick up a few for the Marlins over the next few weeks. Try picking him up.

Last, if you're looking for a high HR/RBI utility man, Frank Thomas is your guy. I wrote about him a few weeks ago. He's a great player who is severely undervalued.

One last bit of advice: trade Freddy Garcia for a better pitcher. Check out my rankings for some good targets.

I hope this helps! Good luck this season!"

Let your thoughts on this trade be known!

Mailbag: Damon/Zambrano for Delmon/Webb?

Another addition of the Mailbag is here. Keep sending your questions in and you might see it appear here.

An anonymous reader wrote:

"I would be interested in Delmon Young's numbers against those of J. Damon. This could possibly set up a trade of my C. Zambrano and Damon for B. Webb and Young.
Thanks"

I responded:

"I would probably not do this trade in your position. Of course it depends on your specific team and league, but strictly talent wise this trade is a bad one for you.

While Webb is an upgrade over Carlos Zambano, most people don't recognize this. Their perceived value is very close. Damon, however, is a better player than Delmon Young. Much of Delmon's value comes from his hype and his potential, while Damon is already at the point most people hope Delmon will reach this year.

Damon - 87% Contact Rate
Delmon - 81% Contact Rate

Damon - 19% LD Rate
Delmon - 18.5% LD Rate

Damon - 10% BB Rate
Delmon - 4.1% BB Rate

Now consider that Delmon's numbers were in the minors. Both are speedy, but Damon has proven major league speed; Delmon does not. The same goes for Power. Damon has a decent amount of pop in his bat, while Delmon's is all speculative; he has potential to be a good power hitter. Damon also hits in the better lineup.

Definately do not do this trade. I would, however, trade Zambrano while his value is high (Jake Peavy would be a good target).

I hope this helps."

Comment away if you agree or disagree with me! Also, keep sending you're questions in!

Mailbag: Pick Up Hermanson?

Here's another Mailbag question from someone who wishes to remain anonymous. Make your opinion on this known by commenting!

This person writes:
"Derek,

I just discovered your site; really impressive work. If this year's f-ball blogs were second basemen, yours would be Chase Utley.

First a tip -- Dustin Hermanson has been quietly added to the Yahoo! player list and I believe is clearing waivers in most leagues tonight.

Now my question. Who will most likely close in Cincy this year?

In a deep 14-team mixed 5x5 keeper, my droppable pitchers are Dave Weathers, John Maine, and Josh Johnson. My hope with Johnson was that the Marlins would place him on the DL sooner so that I could stash him, but they are taking their time about it. Should I drop one of these guys to put a waiver move on Hermanson?"

I responded:
"James,

Great to hear you enjoy my blog. This is a good question. Bill Bray will be on the DL, so he is completely out of the running for now. This leaves Todd Coffey, Mike Stanton, David Weathers, and Dustin Hermanson as the options. Coffey I sincerely doubt will close, even though he is just as capable as the other guys. Early on the talk was that Stanton and Weathers would share the duty. Then Weathers became more of the frontrunner to take the brunt of the work. Then Hermanson was signed, and there were whispered that if he impressed in Spring Training he could quickly slide into the closer role. Since then there have been more whispers that he will soon be named the closer. There has not been an official announcement yet, but if the season opened today I would think Hermanson is the most likely to close. Whoever gets the job in Cincy will be on a very short leash, but in a 14-team league these guys are still worth roster spots.

That being said, you seem to have a slight dilemma. Dave Weathers seems the most obvious guy to drop, but he could just as easily be closing on Sunday, so it could backfire on you. Let's take a look at Maine and Johnson. Health issues aside, I think Johnson is the slightly better pitcher in that he has more room to improve. Both have K rates a little over 7 and BB rates in the mid-to-high 3s. Johnson though has the higher GB Rate, 45% to 37%. Assuming Johnson and Maine won't be your keepers, I think this leaves either Weathers or Johnson to be dropped. While Johnson is slightly better, he will provide much less value than Maine because he will not pitch as many innings as Maine will, provided Maine stays healthy.

So, Weathers or Johnson? Or neither? This depends a little on how many guys like Akinori Otsuka or Mike Gonzalez or Joel Zumaya are on waivers. In a 14-team league, chances are these guys are gone. If they are, then I think you need to get Hermanson. If a lot of these types of guys (guys who have a shaky closer ahead of them) are available, I don't see it necessary to rush to get Hermanson as there will be better, safer options popping up throughout the year.

It also depends on your Starting Pitching. Can you afford to lose Johnson and not get him back? How good is the rest of your staff? If a guy like Jamie Shields or Philip Hughes or Oliver Perez is still on waivers, I think you can afford to lose Johnson. But then we think about the debate over SPs vs. RPs. It is much worse to lose a decent SP than it is to miss out on a so-so RP. Will Johnson be picked up right away if dropped? Would you be able to get him back again to stash on the DL once Yahoo! makes him DL eligible?

This is a very tough decision, but I would probably lean towards dropping Weathers and grabbing Hermanson, then cross your fingers for him to close. He is a better option than Weathers; let’s just hope the Reds realize this. This is the safest move to make; you won't lose your SPs and you will have the closer most likely to get save opps early on in Hermanson. If Weathers is named the closer, you may even be able to scoop him back up on Sunday.

I hope this advice helps, and I hope I am steering you in the right direction, but the Reds have been so hush-hush on this it's difficult to tell."

Mailbag: Multi-Player Trade

Back with another edition of the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Mailbag. After this I'm getting back to work on the formulas and rankings. After reading feel free to comment on what you would do in this situation.

Luke Gloeckner wrote:
" Hey. First off: your blog is a lifesaver. There's some great knowledge on there. I just recently stumbled upon and have read through a great majority of it already. Awesome, awesome stuff!

Anyway, forgive me for doing so, but I wanted to talk through a situation with you. I'm in a keeper league that heavily favors pitching (notably, quality starts are worth more than any other stat). I'm one of those fools who ended up with Chris Young virtue of a pick in this year's draft. After drafting him, I was sifting through some stats and stumbled upon the BABIP leaders for last year and was floored by how he dwarfed the competition here. Then I found your article where you labeled him as over-hyped. So, I immediately put him on the trading block in my league (the rest of the league loved the pick when I got him) to see what value I could get for him (he is my fourth starter behind Santana, Lackey and Verlander).

The offer I was able to work out with someone is Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman and Rocco Baldelli for Garrett Atkins, Kelvim Escobar and Mike Pelfrey. Keep in mind, this is a keeper league (we keep four or five players each year). The offer's sitting on the table as of right now and I was just wondering what your thoughts on the deal were, as I've found your advice and research very valuable.

Once again, I apologize for trying to make use of you as a sounding board for trade advice but I just wanted a non-partisan opinion and through your writing, I can see yours is respectable. Write back with your thoughts, if you get the chance.

Thanks!"

My response:
"As I said on the blog, I am not a fan of Chris Young this year. He is alright, but is highly overrated. That being said, I think you've found yourself a very favorable deal. I believe I've mentioned Atkins before on the blog; he is fantastic. He should be a first round pick next year once people realize that he is for real. While Zimmerman is alright, he is no Atkins. I have Zimmerman down for a .287 BA and Atkins for .330-ish (I'm not at my normal computer right now to get the exact figure). While Zimmerman hit 50 2Bs and 3Bs and could take a leap in HRs, Atkins is already at a high power level and has an equally good chance to continue to hit more. Atkins also has the luxury of a superior lineup.

I have Escobar ranked around #20 and Young at #33, so I obviously see that as an upgrade. I like Pelfrey a lot too, if you read my Mets Preview of the Starting Rotation. It's difficult to tell how his numbers will translate to the majors, but he certainly has a ton of potential and is definitely a good guy to have in a keeper league (Philip Hughes is another guy I love in keeper leagues).

Baldelli is so-so, not a ton of power and not a fantastic contact hitter. He's expendable for sure.

Definately do this trade.

Looking at the rest of your rotation, my advice would be to make a few more trades. I'm not big on Verlander unless he can eventually get his K/9 up to the 8.00 - 9.00 level, which seems somewhat unlikely. There are much better pitchers out there. Same goes for Lackey, who is certainly a decent pitcher but not someone you should be relying on as a #2 (after this trade Escobar will actually be your second best pitcher). Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings; I think you'll find some guys who could provide better value than Lackey or Verlander. Felix, Hamels, Kazmir, and Myers are all great young guys who are better than these two. Verlander and Lackey are both highly rated for now, so I would definitely recommend trading them both (Verlander even more so) if at all possible.

Santana is obviously a great pitcher, but I don't have him on any of my teams. His value is so high right now I actually would look into a possible trade. You could get two great players for him. I don't know how your offense is, but if it's good I would try to grab two pitchers. Felix Hernandez would be awesome, especially in a keeper league. If you could get Felix and a Hamels/Kazmir/Myers type you would be in great shape. If you could get two of these for Verlander and Lackey you probably wouldn't even need to trade Santana, unless you wanted to get an elite hitter and another good pitcher for him.

A rotation of:
Santana, Felix, Myers, Escobar is very good, but

A rotation of:
Peavy, Felix, Myers, Escobar is also very good and could net you another top hitter for your offense.

Anyway, I think I've given you a little bit to think about.

Essentially, I would advise you to make this trade and look into a few more. I hope this advice helps! Let me know how everything turns out for you!"



Please let your thoughts on this matter be heard! Comment away!

Mailbag: Furcal or Wang?

Here's another mailbag question. Keep them coming! I do my best to answer all of them and some I'll post on here, with your consent.

Evan wrote:
"Derek,

Thanks for the blog, helped me out during my draft. I've done fantasy
baseball before, but this year I'm taking it more seriously than in
the past (or at least I am for now).

I was wondering if you could post some advice about injured players.
I'm in a Yahoo head-to-head league, and I've got both Furcal and
Chien-Ming Wang on my team. The league has one DL spot, but I don't
have a backup shortstop. I'm not asking for any detailed advice, but
do you think I should hold on to both?"

I responded:
"I know exactly what I would do; I would try to get rid of Chien-Ming Wang. I don't like Wang as he will kill you in Ks. His ERA won't be that good - over 4 - and his WHIP will be over 1.30. Combined with a K/9 under 4 and you have a pitcher that doesn't deserve a roster spot. He will pick up wins playing on the Yankees, but I don't believe this justifies the hype surrounding him. I would immediately start trying to trade Wang. Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings and see if you can get a guy like Curt Schilling. Felix Hernandez would be great, but I doubt his owner would bite on that. If you can't nab Schilling, try for Mussina and then A.J. Burnett. Since it's a Yahoo! league you may be able to get a little extra with Burnett as they had him ranked low.

I like Furcal a lot this year. I have him down for a .299 Batting Average and a bunch of Steals. He also has a decent amount of pop for a SS and 12-15 HRs seems likely. He hits in a good lineup and a 100 Runs pace shouldn't be hard to come by, although my formula is still a work in progress. He won't get a ton of RBIs, but he still should be a top 5, possibly top 3 SS. Definitely keep Furcal and stash him on the DL if he misses any time, although yesterday he said he should be ready for Opening Day."

Let me know what you guys would do! And keep those Mailbag questions coming!

Mailbag: Felix for Aramis?

A reader who asked to be left anonymous wrote:

"Hi Derek,

I love your blog. I've been a huge fantasy baseball fan for about 10 years now, but ever since my first year I haven't been able to do better than 4th place. I wonder if you might give me some advice on a possible trade.

I'm in an 8-team league. I think my team is pretty strong except that I'm weak at 3rd base. Right now my I have Freddy Sanchez at that position. Ideally, I'd like to use him as a rover between 2B, SS, and 3B. I'm wondering if I should make a trade to get a better 3B. One of the other teams in my league offered me Aramis Ramirez for Felix Hernandez. I like Felix but his numbers weren't great last year. My other SP are Smoltz, Harden, Myers, Cain, and Jered Weaver. We only have 4 SP positions and so now I have two on the bench. Would you make the trade?"

I responded:

"Happy to hear you like my blog. First, you should know that my hitter rankings aren't completed yet as my RBI and Run formulas are still being created/finished. That being said, Aramis Ramirez is a very good 3B. Great Contact and Line Drive Rates with lots of power. He is also fairly good at drawing a walk.

He has good hitters ahead of him in Soriano and Lee, and Murton could be pretty decent as well. Over 100 RBIs should be expected, but I don't have an exact figure yet. His Runs should be decent. Jones has some power and Barrett is one of the most underrated catchers in baseball. DeRosa is a decent hitter but doesn't have a ton of power (Barrett doesn't really either). His Runs should be pretty good because he gets on base and has decent players behind him, but again I don't have an exact figure.

I love Felix Hernandez. I have him ranked as my #4 SP, and I think trading him for Ramirez would be a mistake. While his surface numbers last year weren't great, his peripherals were and I expect him to contend with Johan Santana for the Cy Young this year.

Smoltz and Myers are also great pitchers. Harden is very good as well (Top 15). Let's just hope he can stay healthy. I'm not super big on Cain or Weaver. I would probably counteroffer with both of those two for Ramirez (and someone else if you can swing it).

Another option would be to seek another 3B. My favorite choice this year is Garrett Atkins. I'd offer those two for Atkins first, and if it is denied try for Ramirez. If you can't find a deal that works for either of those two, my next target would be Chipper Jones. He would be much cheaper than Atkins or Aramis. You might be able to get him for just one of Cain or Weaver. Aramis and Chipper might be a little injury prone, but you have Sanchez who could step in if they get hurt. Edwin Encarnacion would also be a great backup for either of those two if he is on your waiver wire.

That would still leave you with:

Felix

Smoltz

Myers

Harden

with possibly Cain/Weaver on the Bench.

I don't know what your maximum total innings limit is, but if it is low you could afford to lose both Cain and Weaver with this rotation. Just make sure to pick up Philip Hughes in June and Roger Clemens in April or June if he is available. Pedro Martinez the last couple weeks of the year could also help out. Check my site throughout the season for my top Waiver Wire Pickups.

If you are able to keep one of Cain or Weaver I would recommend trading him for Schilling, Mussina, Burnett, Vazquez, or Kelvim Escobar, in that order. Oh, and if Dave Bush is on your waiver wire (he might be in an 8 team league) pick him up.

One last option: If you could turn Cain or Weaver into Curt Schilling you could probably afford to trade Smoltz and the other one (Cain/Weaver) for Atkins or possibly Aramis."

I wrote more about Felix Hernandez here, which may have gotten overlooked by many of you as it was my first post about a player.

If you have a agree or have a different opinion than me please feel free to post away!