Interested in Sabermetric Fantasy Football Analysis from the Saberoticians?


Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts

Monday, April 30, 2007

Mailbag: Ryan Howard

Here's a mailbag question that I'm sure a lot of Ryan Howard owners are thinking:

Question:

"Derek,
Ryan Howard--stay patient with him, or should I be shopping him around?"


Here is my response:

"I don't own Ryan Howard in any of my leagues, but if I did this is how I would proceed. I would talk to the owners in my league and get a feel for how highly they value him. If I could get somebody of equal perceived value, I would do it. But I would not sell him low. All three of his HRs so far have been hit very far. By that logic, he should have hit a few that weren't as far, which he hasn't yet. He will do this eventually. His numbers last year indicate his power is real, and his numbers this year indicate the same thing.

Other Phillies struggling as well, but I expect them to start hitting. Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, and Burrell are all good players. Rowand isn't bad either. Howard should easily get over 110 RBIs and at least 100 Runs. He is walking a lot this year, and while this will come down a little he should score a good amount of Runs just based on his being on base a lot and hitting home runs. As far as HRs go, it isn't out of the question to expect 50 or 55 by year's end. I wouldn't even be shocked if he hit 60. His average will come down from last year as he swings and misses a lot of pitches and his Contact Rate isn't very good. He hits a lot of LDs (although it is a little low this year), so when he does put the ball in play it is often hit well.

In summation, Howard is still a good player who you should hold onto. He's getting a little unlucky with homers, and when the rest of the team starts to hit he will pick up his RBIs and Runs. His BA will be down from last year, but Howard is still a very good player. Don't trade him low.

If in a few weeks he starts to hit and a guy like Alex Rodriguez slows down, see if you can't make the trade. Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes (if you need steals), and David Ortiz are a few other guys I would consider trading him for. I hope this helps!"



Post your thoughts on Ryan Howard!

Monday, April 23, 2007

Mailbag: A-Rod or Pujols?

I have been asked by a few readers recently who the better fantasy player for this year is: Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez.

My response:
"Albert Pujols is the better option, by a laughably huge margin. This margin is even greater when comparing them as just baseball players without the whole fantasy aspect. I was quite disturbed when I was watching, I believe it was PTI, a couple of weeks ago, and this exact question was posed. I didn't even really see how it was a legitimate question.

Power Hitting. It could be predicted using Hit Tracker's Just Enough/Plenty/No Doubt method that Alex Rodriguez was due to hit more HRs this year, perhaps even eclipsing 50, but it could also be predicted that Albert Pujols would hit more than the 49 he hit last year, with 55 or perhaps even 60 a reachable goal.
Winner: Pujols

Contact Hitting. Albert Pujols consistently has a 90% Contact Rate, while A-Rod's has dropped from 78% in 2004 to 75% in 2006. A-Rod's Line Drive Percentage was around 15.5% for 2004 and 2005 and reached 18% in 2006. Pujols's average over that span was 18%. Directly related to contact percentage, I feel like Pujols's K rate should be noted. He strikes out in less than 10% of At-Bats. That is amazing considering his power. Both take their fare share of walks (although Pujols takes more) which, using Shandler's system, indicates they are both selective. Pujols's Contact Rate puts him on top.
Winner: Pujols

Patience. We discussed this in the Contact Hitting section. Both take walks; Pujols takes more.
Winner: Pujols

Running. This is an easy one to see. Pujols stole 16 in 2005, but came back down to earth in 2006 with 7. A-Rod stole 28, 21, and 15 in 2004, 2005, and 2006 respectively. He's the clear winner.
Winner: A-Rod

Lineup. Both hit in very good lineups. A-Rod has the likes of Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi helping him out, while Mr. Pujols has Scott Rolen, Chris Duncan, Jim Edmonds, and David Eckstein. You gotta give the edge to A-Rod, although Pujols should have no trouble finding RBIs and Runs being as good as he is.
Winner: A-Rod

Just tallying up the scores make this seem like an even match up (Pujols: 3, A-Rod: 2), but it is not. Pujols should have a much higher Batting Average than A-Rod and probably 10 more HRs. Because of this (and his fantastic on-base ability which is only helped by all of his intentional walks) he will score a ton of runs and have a high number of RBIs. It could be argued that A-Rod will get more, but once these numbers go over 110-115, it really doesn't matter much. The difference between A-Rod and Pujols in Runs and RBIs should be less than 10. A-Rod will grab 5 or 10 more steals, but this is no compensation. Pujols is clearly the better fantasy player, and in the world of baseball where RBIs and Runs actually mean very little, Albert Pujols clearly the better player."

Let your feelings be known about this issue!

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

2006 True Home Runs

Here is a list of every player in 2006 that hit a Home Run in the Major Leagues, alongside the number of True HRs that player hit. A True Home Run is a HR that, taking atmosphere and wind conditions into account, would have went farther than an average MLB ballpark fence. The raw HR data comes from Hit Tracker, and I calculated the True HR stat. The fourth column gives the percentage of HRs that were True HRs. Enjoy!

Player HR True HR True HR/HR
Albert Pujols 49 46 94%
Ryan Howard 58 46 79%
David Ortiz 54 43 80%
Jermaine Dye 44 39 89%
Frank Thomas 39 37 95%
Andruw Jones 41 37 90%
Travis Hafner 42 36 86%
Alfonso Soriano 46 36 78%
Adam Dunn 40 35 88%
Jim Thome 42 34 81%
Alex Rodriguez 35 33 94%
Aramis Ramirez 38 33 87%
Carlos Beltran 41 32 78%
Matt Holliday 34 31 91%
Lance Berkman 45 31 69%
Troy Glaus 38 31 82%
Vernon Wells 32 30 94%
Adam LaRoche 32 30 94%
Manny Ramirez 35 30 86%
Jason Bay 35 29 83%
Jason Giambi 37 29 78%
Mark Teixeira 33 29 88%
Jeff Francoeur 29 28 97%
Paul Konerko 35 28 80%
Carlos Delgado 38 28 74%
Bill Hall 35 28 80%
Richie Sexson 34 27 79%
Chase Utley 32 27 84%
Torii Hunter 31 26 84%
Garrett Atkins 29 26 90%
Justin Morneau 34 25 74%
Vladimir Guerrero 33 25 76%
Nick Swisher 35 25 71%
Prince Fielder 28 24 86%
Joe Crede 30 24 80%
Marcus Thames 26 23 88%
Carlos Lee 37 23 62%
Ken Griffey Jr. 27 23 85%
Barry Bonds 26 22 85%
Pat Burrell 29 22 76%
Craig Monroe 28 22 79%
Raul Ibanez 33 22 67%
Nick Johnson 23 21 91%
Chipper Jones 26 21 81%
Ray Durham 26 21 81%
Daniel Uggla 27 21 78%
Magglio Ordonez 24 21 88%
Eric Byrnes 26 21 81%
Brandon Inge 27 20 74%
Austin Kearns 24 20 83%
Mike Cuddyer 24 20 83%
Adrian Gonzalez 24 20 83%
Lyle Overbay 22 20 91%
Pedro Feliz 22 20 91%
Miguel Cabrera 26 20 77%
Grady Sizemore 28 19 68%
Juan Rivera 23 19 83%
Chris Duncan 22 19 86%
Jacque Jones 27 19 70%
Mike Piazza 22 19 86%
Brad Hawpe 22 18 82%
Mike Cameron 22 18 82%
Jorge Posada 23 18 78%
Moises Alou 22 18 82%
Phil Nevin 22 18 82%
Brian McCann 24 18 75%
Jimmy Rollins 25 18 72%
Shea Hillenbrand 21 18 86%
David Wright 26 18 69%
Adrian Beltre 25 18 72%
Jonny Gomes 20 17 85%
Eric Chavez 22 17 77%
Juan Encarnacion 19 17 89%
Johnny Damon 24 17 71%
Jim Edmonds 19 17 89%
Josh Willingham 26 16 62%
Nomar Garciaparra 20 16 80%
Scott Rolen 22 16 73%
Aubrey Huff 21 16 76%
Juan Uribe 21 16 76%
Chad Tracy 20 16 80%
Mark Teahen 18 16 89%
Mike Jacobs 20 16 80%
Miguel Olivo 16 16 100%
Chris Shelton 16 15 94%
Curtis Granderson 19 15 79%
Gary Matthews Jr. 19 15 79%
Morgan Ensberg 23 15 65%
Miguel Tejada 24 15 63%
Jose Bautista 16 15 94%
J.D. Drew 20 15 75%
Rich Aurilia 23 15 65%
Ramon Hernandez 23 14 61%
Carl Crawford 18 14 78%
Brad Wilkerson 15 14 93%
Jose Reyes 19 14 74%
Ryan Zimmerman 20 14 70%
Ty Wigginton 24 14 58%
Rafael Furcal 15 14 93%
Geoff Jenkins 17 14 82%
Bengie Molina 19 14 74%
Ben Broussard 21 14 67%
Jose Valentin 18 13 72%
Robinson Cano 15 13 87%
Michael Barrett 16 13 81%
Mark DeRosa 13 13 100%
Eric Hinske 13 13 100%
Jorge Cantu 14 13 93%
Bobby Abreu 15 13 87%
Carlos Guillen 19 13 68%
Milton Bradley 14 13 93%
Craig Wilson 17 13 76%
Orlando Hudson 15 13 87%
Dave Ross 21 13 62%
Edwin Encarnacion 15 13 87%
Shawn Green 15 13 87%
Xavier Nady 17 13 76%
Hank Blalock 16 13 81%
Rocco Baldelli 16 12 75%
Wilson Betemit 18 12 67%
Casey Blake 19 12 63%
Todd Helton 15 12 80%
Damon Hollins 15 12 80%
Conor Jackson 15 12 80%
Ian Kinsler 14 12 86%
Nicholas Markakis 16 12 75%
Kenji Johjima 18 12 67%
Joshua Barfield 13 12 92%
Russell Branyan 18 12 67%
Alexis Rios 17 12 71%
Ivan Rodriguez 13 12 92%
Craig Biggio 21 12 57%
A.J. Pierzynski 16 12 75%
Hanley Ramirez 17 12 71%
Melvin Mora 16 12 75%
Bernie Williams 12 11 92%
Emil Brown 15 11 73%
Brandon Phillips 17 11 65%
Derek Jeter 14 11 79%
Garret Anderson 17 11 65%
Ronnie Belliard 13 11 85%
Edgar Renteria 14 11 79%
Victor Martinez 16 11 69%
Kevin Youkilis 13 11 85%
Matt Stairs 13 11 85%
Marcus Giles 11 11 100%
Tadahito Iguchi 18 11 61%
Kevin Millar 15 11 73%
Matt Murton 13 11 85%
Greg Norton 17 11 65%
Preston Wilson 17 11 65%
Reed Johnson 12 11 92%
Michael Napoli 16 10 63%
Eliezer Alfonzo 12 10 83%
Rod Barajas 11 10 91%
Aaron Rowand 12 10 83%
Joe Borchard 10 10 100%
Luis Gonzalez 15 10 67%
Scott Spiezio 13 10 77%
Kevin Mench 13 10 77%
Jeff Kent 14 10 71%
Marlon Anderson 12 10 83%
Mike Lamb 12 10 83%
Brian Giles 14 10 71%
John Buck 11 10 91%
Gregg Zaun 12 10 83%
Corey Patterson 16 10 63%
Khalil Greene 15 10 67%
Felipe Lopez 11 9 82%
Angel Berroa 9 9 100%
Mike Lowell 20 9 45%
Jay Gibbons 13 9 69%
Jason Varitek 12 9 75%
Carl Everett 11 9 82%
Reggie Sanders 11 9 82%
Cliff Floyd 11 9 82%
Cody Ross 13 9 69%
Wes Helms 10 9 90%
Jose Castillo 14 9 64%
Alex Gonzalez 9 9 100%
Andre Ethier 11 9 82%
Michael Young 14 9 64%
Russell Martin 10 8 80%
Wily Mo Pena 11 8 73%
Jeff Conine 10 8 80%
Jason LaRue 8 8 100%
Mark Ellis 11 8 73%
Robb Quinlan 9 8 89%
David DeJesus 8 8 100%
Josh Bard 9 8 89%
Todd Walker 9 8 89%
Jeromy Burnitz 16 8 50%
Randy Winn 11 8 73%
Matthew Kemp 7 7 100%
Carlos Quentin 9 7 78%
Jason Lane 15 7 47%
Olmedo Saenz 11 7 64%
Mark Bellhorn 8 7 88%
Rondell White 7 7 100%
Ryan Church 10 7 70%
Corey Koskie 12 7 58%
Bobby Crosby 9 7 78%
Nate McLouth 7 7 100%
Tim Salmon 9 7 78%
Luke Scott 10 7 70%
Javier Valentin 8 7 88%
Corey Hart 9 7 78%
Derrek Lee 8 7 88%
Travis Lee 11 7 64%
Damion Easley 9 7 78%
Joe Mauer 13 7 54%
Jose Lopez 10 7 70%
Julio Lugo 12 7 58%
Jack Wilson 8 7 88%
Jay Payton 10 7 70%
Orlando Cabrera 9 7 78%
Yuniesky Betancourt 8 7 88%
Scott Hatteberg 13 7 54%
David Bell 10 7 70%
Jhonny Peralta 13 7 54%
Gerald Laird 7 6 86%
Hideki Matsui 8 6 75%
Dmitri Young 7 6 86%
Bobby Kielty 8 6 75%
Ronny Cedeno 6 6 100%
Aaron Guiel 7 6 86%
David Dellucci 13 6 46%
Daryle Ward 7 6 86%
Mike Lieberthal 9 6 67%
Jose Guillen 9 6 67%
Brian Roberts 10 6 60%
Sean Casey 8 6 75%
Javy Lopez 8 6 75%
Ryan Shealy 7 6 86%
Yorvit Torrealba 7 6 86%
Johnny Estrada 11 6 55%
Eli Marrero 6 6 100%
Chris Coste 7 6 86%
Hector Luna 6 6 100%
Ryan Langerhans 7 6 86%
Eduardo Perez 9 5 56%
Clint Barmes 7 5 71%
Dan Johnson 9 5 56%
Mark Kotsay 7 5 71%
Toby Hall 8 5 63%
Dioner Navarro 6 5 83%
Jeff DaVanon 5 5 100%
Jose Cruz 5 5 100%
Henry Blanco 6 5 83%
Andy Phillips 7 5 71%
Jason Kubel 8 5 63%
Tony Clark 6 5 83%
Dallas McPherson 7 5 71%
Chris Snyder 6 5 83%
Mike Sweeney 8 5 63%
Jose Vidro 7 5 71%
Jeremy Hermida 5 5 100%
Gary Sheffield 6 5 83%
Steve Finley 6 5 83%
Todd Hollandsworth 7 5 71%
Ryan Doumit 6 5 83%
Tony Graffanino 7 5 71%
Aaron Boone 7 5 71%
Mike Rivera 6 5 83%
Rickie Weeks 8 5 63%
Eric Munson 5 5 100%
Coco Crisp 8 5 63%
Jamey Carroll 5 5 100%
Matt Diaz 7 5 71%
Jeff Baker 5 5 100%
Brian Anderson 8 4 50%
Trot Nixon 8 4 50%
Ramon Castro 4 4 100%
Yadier Molina 6 4 67%
John Mabry 5 4 80%
Aaron Hill 6 4 67%
Mark Grudzielanek 7 4 57%
Scott Thorman 5 4 80%
Lew Ford 4 4 100%
Endy Chavez 4 4 100%
Stephen Drew 5 4 80%
Shane Victorino 6 4 67%
Chris Burke 9 4 44%
Ichiro Suzuki 9 4 44%
Nelson Cruz 6 4 67%
Omar Vizquel 4 4 100%
Freddie Bynum 4 4 100%
Gabe Gross 9 4 44%
Ryan Freel 8 4 50%
Damian Miller 6 4 67%
Angel Pagan 5 4 80%
Alex Escobar 4 4 100%
Alex Cintron 5 4 80%
Vinny Castilla 5 4 80%
Doug Mirabelli 6 4 67%
Adam Everett 6 4 67%
Freddy Sanchez 6 4 67%
Jason Michaels 9 4 44%
Jason Smith 5 4 80%
Reginald Abercrombie 5 4 80%
Chone Figgins 9 4 44%
Lastings Milledge 4 4 100%
Joe Randa 4 3 75%
Shin-Soo Choo 3 3 100%
Tony Batista 5 3 60%
Todd Pratt 4 3 75%
Willy Aybar 4 3 75%
Ryan Garko 7 3 43%
Gary Bennett 4 3 75%
Jose Hernandez 3 3 100%
Sal Fasano 5 3 60%
Vance Wilson 5 3 60%
Ryan Spilborghs 4 3 75%
Andy Marte 5 3 60%
Lance Niekro 5 3 60%
Mark Sweeney 5 3 60%
Rob Mackowiak 5 3 60%
Melky Cabrera 7 3 43%
Jeff Cirillo 3 3 100%
Adam Kennedy 4 3 75%
Paul Lo Duca 5 3 60%
Doug Mientkiewicz 4 3 75%
Craig Counsell 4 3 75%
Frank Catalanotto 7 3 43%
Alfredo Amezaga 3 3 100%
Juan Pierre 3 3 100%
Juan Castro 3 3 100%
Jeremy Reed 6 3 50%
J.J. Hardy 5 3 60%
Omar Infante 4 3 75%
Jose Molina 4 3 75%
James Loney 4 3 75%
Ben Johnson 4 3 75%
Jorge Piedra 3 3 100%
Russ Adams 3 3 100%
Ronny Paulino 6 3 50%
Ricky Ledee 2 2 100%
Terrmel Sledge 2 2 100%
Adam Lind 2 2 100%
Adam Melhuse 4 2 50%
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3 2 67%
Dustin Pedroia 2 2 100%
Christopher Young 2 2 100%
Delmon Young 3 2 67%
Damian Jackson 4 2 50%
Bill Mueller 3 2 67%
JD Closser 2 2 100%
Luis Matos 2 2 100%
Chris Snelling 3 2 67%
Rob Bowen 3 2 67%
Eric Young 3 2 67%
Kevin Frandsen 2 2 100%
Brian Jordan 3 2 67%
Jeff Mathis 2 2 100%
Ross Gload 3 2 67%
Cory Sullivan 2 2 100%
Joshua Rabe 3 2 67%
Chris Woodward 3 2 67%
Shane Costa 3 2 67%
Kazuo Matsui 3 2 67%
John McDonald 3 2 67%
Esteban German 3 2 67%
Howard Kendrick 4 2 50%
Kenny Lofton 3 2 67%
Placido Polanco 4 2 50%
Chris Duffy 2 2 100%
Abraham Nunez 2 2 100%
Royce Clayton 2 2 100%
Aaron Miles 2 2 100%
Brady Clark 4 2 50%
Maicer Izturis 5 2 40%
Brian Schneider 4 2 50%
Joe Inglett 2 2 100%
Marlon Byrd 5 2 40%
Matt Treanor 2 2 100%
Choo Freeman 2 2 100%
Shannon Stewart 2 2 100%
Mark Loretta 5 2 40%
John Rodriguez 2 2 100%
Ramon Martinez 2 2 100%
Mike Matheny 3 2 67%
Todd Greene 2 2 100%
Julio Franco 2 2 100%
Kendry Morales 5 2 40%
Kevin Witt 2 1 50%
Rene Rivera 2 1 50%
Marco Scutaro 5 1 20%
So Taguchi 2 1 50%
Jose Vizcaino 2 1 50%
Miguel Ojeda 2 1 50%
Carlos Joaquin Ruiz 3 1 33%
Christopher Iannetta 2 1 50%
Luis A. Gonzalez 2 1 50%
Jeff Keppinger 2 1 50%
Matt LeCroy 2 1 50%
Brad Ausmus 2 1 50%
Nick Green 2 1 50%
Brandon Fahey 2 1 50%
Scott Podsednik 3 1 33%
Ryan Theriot 3 1 33%
Tomas Perez 2 1 50%
Chris Gomez 2 1 50%
Luis Castillo 3 1 33%
David Newhan 4 1 25%
Jason Repko 3 1 33%
Gabe Kapler 2 1 50%
Pablo Ozuna 2 1 50%
Luis Rodriguez 2 1 50%
Geoff Blum 4 1 25%
David Eckstein 2 1 50%
Benjamin Zobrist 2 1 50%
Kelly Shoppach 3 1 33%
Jason Ellison 2 0 0%
Todd Linden 2 0 0%
Robert Fick 2 0 0%
Jason Bartlett 2 0 0%
Fernando Tatis 2 0 0%
Neifi Perez 2 0 0%
Dave Roberts 2 0 0%
Chad Moeller 2 0 0%