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Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Mailbag: Hanley/Chavez for Atkins/Dye

Alright. Here's our next Mailbag question from an anonymous reader.

The reader writes:
"Hello Derek,
Here is my question. 12 team mixed, head to head, 5x5 league with total bases in place of average. Here is what the offer is:

I get: Atkins, Dye
I trade: Hanley Ramirez and Eric Chavez

I realize on the surface it is a bad trade. However, I have Rafael Furcal on my bench. Thus, in essence I am also getting Furcal in the deal as I now free up my SS position (I have Hafner in my overall utility spot and I like a power hitter in my utility infield spot so I do not want to play both Furcal and Hanley). I would still have Damon, Vernon Wells, and Kinlser along with Furcal to steal some bases for me,

I downgrade from Ramirez to Furcal which is not that much of a downgrade, I get a potential upgrade from Chavez to Atkins, and I get Dye as an extra. I know that you love Atkins. Dye was bound to regress after last season, but what are his prospects for the remainder of the season? Plus, have your thoughts about Atkins changed any since he is still struggling?
Thanks! Sorry for the long message. I just really respect your opinion. "

My response:
"I would definitely make this trade. I still like Atkins, and he is one of my favorite Buy Low candidates right now. He's got a good Contact Rate (which should improve) and a good BB rate, and I fully expect him to raise his BA to at least .300. Based on HR data from 2006, his season was not a fluke, and I expect him to start hitting HRs shortly. He should hit at least his HR ratio from last year from here on out. 25 HRs by the end of the year seems likely, even though he only has 2 so far.

Dye is also quite good. He crushed a lot of balls last year, and a repeat HR performance would not shock me. His BA will be down from last year, but it should remain at a respectable level. He has a 75% Contact Rate and 8.2% BB rate, but I think the Contact Rate has a pretty good chance of improving a little bit. He hits in a pretty good lineup, so I expect Dye to be looked back on as a very good player come September.

Chavez is decent, but not great. I expect an above average BA and around 22 HRs, plus the luxury of hitting in a good lineup for RBIs and Runs, but I think Atkins is much better. Hanley is good, and I love the increased BB rate this year, but Furcal is plenty good enough to be your starting SS."


Anonymous said...

It seems there are a lot of power hitters getting a slow start this year. Garrett Atkins is still available in my Rotisserie League. I have BJ Upton playing third base now but I keep looking at Atkins waiting for some spark to show itself. Upton is having a great start to the season but I still keep waiting on Atkins to show some kind of spark, start hitting with men on 2nd, a couple HRs in the same week, consistent hitting with MISP; that sort of thing. Should I stay with Upton or move onto Atkins before he comes back to life.

Derek Carty said...

Upton's .500 BABIP will not last, although he has some good qualities. His 61% Contact Rate is not one of them, and it makes it likely Upton won't have a BA higher than .270 by the end of the year. His BB rate is pretty good (8.1%) meaning his selectivity is as well, and a Line Drive Percentage of 21.6% further builds this case. The HRs he has hit haven't been overly impressive, but he's no slouch. 20-25 HRs is a little more than just a possibility. He hits in a good lineup, so RBIs and Runs shouldn't be difficult to find. He's also got speed.
That being said, I also like Atkins a lot. I've talked about him to a lot of readers in emails, but I'm now thinking that I don't think I've talked much about him on the blog since the off-season. Maybe I'll run a highlight on him tomorrow. The Spark Notes version though, is to pick up Atkins in any league he is sitting on the Waiver Wire. At the very least keep him benched until he starts to produce.