Mailbag: Hanley/Chavez for Atkins/Dye

Alright. Here's our next Mailbag question from an anonymous reader.

The reader writes:
"Hello Derek,

Here is my question. 12 team mixed, head to head, 5x5 league with total bases in place of average. Here is what the offer is:

I get: Atkins, Dye

I trade: Hanley Ramirez and Eric Chavez

I realize on the surface it is a bad trade. However, I have Rafael Furcal on my bench. Thus, in essence I am also getting Furcal in the deal as I now free up my SS position (I have Hafner in my overall utility spot and I like a power hitter in my utility infield spot so I do not want to play both Furcal and Hanley). I would still have Damon, Vernon Wells, and Kinlser along with Furcal to steal some bases for me,

I downgrade from Ramirez to Furcal which is not that much of a downgrade, I get a potential upgrade from Chavez to Atkins, and I get Dye as an extra. I know that you love Atkins. Dye was bound to regress after last season, but what are his prospects for the remainder of the season? Plus, have your thoughts about Atkins changed any since he is still struggling?

Thanks! Sorry for the long message. I just really respect your opinion. "


My response:
"I would definitely make this trade. I still like Atkins, and he is one of my favorite Buy Low candidates right now. He's got a good Contact Rate (which should improve) and a good BB rate, and I fully expect him to raise his BA to at least .300. Based on HR data from 2006, his season was not a fluke, and I expect him to start hitting HRs shortly. He should hit at least his HR ratio from last year from here on out. 25 HRs by the end of the year seems likely, even though he only has 2 so far.

Dye is also quite good. He crushed a lot of balls last year, and a repeat HR performance would not shock me. His BA will be down from last year, but it should remain at a respectable level. He has a 75% Contact Rate and 8.2% BB rate, but I think the Contact Rate has a pretty good chance of improving a little bit. He hits in a pretty good lineup, so I expect Dye to be looked back on as a very good player come September.

Chavez is decent, but not great. I expect an above average BA and around 22 HRs, plus the luxury of hitting in a good lineup for RBIs and Runs, but I think Atkins is much better. Hanley is good, and I love the increased BB rate this year, but Furcal is plenty good enough to be your starting SS."

ProTrade's All-Lucky Team = Very Similar to Our Findings

I just read a post over at ProTrade. "PROTRADE has mapped out every inch of the diamond, charting every batted ball in the majors over the past five years, calculating the probability that given their distance, direction and hardness, they become hits or outs."

This is very similar to the type of thing I advocated in my Power Hitting Sabermetrics Explanation.

Anyway, after reading the results of this team and checking my own data, I found that ProTrade has come up with very similar results to me. Below is a list of all of the players listed on their 2006 MLB All-Lucky Team, ProTrade's Expected Batting Average, and the Saberoticians Expected Batting Average.

C - Joe Mauer - .312 - .313
1B - Jim Thome - .267 - .264
2B - Dan Uggla - .250 - .272
SS - Hanley Ramirez - .265 - .276
3B - Mark Teahen - .265 - .257
LF - Manny Ramirez - .297 - .309
CF - Gary Matthews Jr. - .262 - .281
RF - Bobby Abreu - .276 - .277

We see that ProTrade and the Saberoticians agree almost exactly on Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Mark Teahen, and Bobby Abreu.

ProTrade admitted that Speed was not incorporated into their Expected Batting Averages, just batted balls. I do incorporate speed into mine in the form of Infield Hits - groundballs legged out by fast players. The players we disagree on by more than .010 - Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Gary Matthews Jr. - all legged out a good amount of groundballs.

We are .012 apart on Manny Ramirez... not bad. We both agree he shouldn't have hit as high as he did last year.

All in all, I love what this article presents. This is something I will dig deeper into, but I think it shows that the way I do things now is also very accurate.