Barry Zito: Fantasy Disappointment?

You know Barry Zito. Former member of the Oakland "Big Three." Part of a rock band. Used to go out with Alyssa Milano. Known for his 12-6 curveball. Signed with the Giants for $126 million. Yeah... that guy. Did you also know that he has a 3-5 record and a 5.13 ERA? If you follow baseball, chances are you did. So why is the highest paid pitcher in baseball putting up numbers like Steve Trachsel? Well, honestly, because they have a similar skill level.

Hopefully you read my Preseason Analysis of Barry Zito and didn't draft him. If you did, you've got a big problem on your hands. In that article I mentioned how Zito has only an average K rate (6.50 K/9), an unimpressive BB rate (3.50 BB/9), and a poor GB rate (38%). Has the move to the National League changed anything for Zito? Let's take a look.

4.97 K/9
4.64 BB/9
38.0% GB
.263 BABIP
0.83 HR/9


Well, it seems his K rate and his BB rate is worse than it has been in the past. I didn't see a K rate close to 7.0 as terribly unlikely, seeing as how he'll get to throw to pitchers in the NL, but we've actually seen a decrease in Ks. I expect this to increase at least to his career levels, but even that will only be around average. His BB rate should decrease a little, but I don't see it getting much lower than 4.00. His GB percentage is perfectly in line with his career numbers, so no change should happen there.

We see that Zito is actually getting lucky when we look at his BABIP and HR/9 numbers. The BABIP should be up nearly .040 points, and the HR/9 does not reflect his low BB rate. It should jump above 1.00 shortly.

While I don't expect Zito to finish the year with an ERA above 5.00, don't expect it to get much lower than 4.50. I said the Giants made a mistake, and I'm sticking by that statement. I can't say how glad I am the Mets didn't shell out even the $80 million they reportedly offered him. If you own Zito and someone in your league still thinks he is good, dump him. Otherwise, wait for his ERA to drop below 5.00 and take the best offer you get.

Bust Alert - Barry Zito

When I heard that the San Francisco Giants had signed Barry Zito to a $128 million, I'm not sure what processed first: the stupidity of the signing or the excitment that it was the Giants - and not my Mets - that had done the signing. After it had registered, I couldn't help doing a little dance in excitment. While my Mets are still missing an Ace Starting Pitcher, Barry Zito was not this Ace.

Barry Zito, due to his great 2002 Cy Young season, his well-known 12-6 curveball, and his rock star image has become one of the most well-known pitchers in baseball. With Matsuzaka quickly scooped up the the Red Sox, Zito - to the common fan - appeared to be the best option left on the market. For whatever reason, the San Francisco Giants decided it was a wise move to sign him to the largest contract ever tendered a pitcher in major league history. The large sum was partially influenced by marketing opportunies for the team, but Zito still will not be worth it. Here's why.

To start with, his luck dependent numbers have never been that great, with the exception of 2002. His ERA has always been around 4.00. His K/9 is only around 6.25 - a huge drawback for fantasy purposes. His command is terrible, between 3.5 and 4.0 BB/9 over the past 4 years. In that timespan, his K/BB has gone above 2.00 just once - and it barely made it. The last reason I dislike Barry Zito is that his GB Percentage has gone above 40% just once in his career.

Please heed my warning. Do not take Barry Zito this year. He is not a good pitcher, and will rely heavily on luck if he is to have anymore than a #3 starter's season.