The first couple of weeks of the season are very similar to the last couple of weeks leading up to the season. Most fantasy baseball players have their teams set and are unwilling to trade players until they've seen something out of them. Two weeks of play will only sway the judgements of the most amateur of players. But since there's little else to talk about, at least for another week or two, we'll go over some players who may be good candidates to Sell High on or Buy Low on.
If you can stick to this principle - Buy Low and Sell High - and never do the opposite unless it is absolutely necessary, you should be in good shape througout the year. Even if I love a player, if he is getting lucky I will have no objections to trading him for a better player who is getting unlucky. Don't be afraid to make these kinds of trades. Let's take a look at a few pitchers who fit one of these bills.
Buy Low
Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb - Three of the top pitchers in the game ran into some rocks coming out of the gates. Don't fear; these guys will bounce back. If for whatever reason their owners are panicking, take advantage of it. Check my Starting Pitcher Rankings; player projections rarely change over the first couple of weeks.
Ben Sheets - Great first start, ugly second start. As long as he stays healthy Sheets should be one of the best in the game.
Scott Kazmir - Struck out 5 in 5 IP, but also walked 4. This explains his 9.00 ERA, but expect his BBs to go down as the year progresses.
Felix Hernandez - Why is a guy with 12 Ks and a 0.00 ERA in 8 IP listed under buy low? Because as I've said numerous times over the past few months, Felix is a serious threat to Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young. If you can still get him for his draft day value, do it now.
Mike Mussina - Good pitcher, bad first start. He's getting older, but he still should be a Top 15 pitcher this year. Too many walks his first time out, but that should improve. If it doesn't, hope he gets lucky and look to sell.
Sell High
Justin Verlander - Will take a big step back from last year. A 0.00 ERA in his first start may lead some to believe he will improve. Don't fall for it. Trade him if he's on your team.
John Lackey - Not as bad as Verlander, but not worth his draft day value. Also got a 0.00 ERA so far in addition to a Win, trade Lackey for a real Top 10 Starting Pitcher before you lose the opportunity to.
Dontrelle Willis - Cool nickname, overrated player because of it. He may be exciting to watch, but he's not as good as the hype suggests. With a Win and a 1.50 ERA so far, capitalize on his perceived value.
Jason Schmidt - Another guy whose hype doesn't match his performance. Even his surface numbers didn't look great the past couple of years. Dump him.
Tom Glavine - As a Mets fan I love Glavine, but he's not a good Fantasy pitcher. Sell him while you can.
Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - I went over him yesterday. He had a rough first outing. 5 BBs in 5 IP is not a good sign for a guy who needs improved command to succeed this year. It's still early though. I just wouldn't touch this guy. If you own him, wait until he has a couple of solid outings and trade him. You may not even need to wait if your league owners realize that one bad start is nothing to worry about (unless you're savvy and realize that Carlos Zambrano isn't that great to begin with).
Chris Young -Another guy I've expressed my disdain for. Perhaps a 4.76 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP isn't super terrible, but Young is a guy you should definately stay away from unless he's your 4th or 5th SP in a deep league.
Don't Sell High
Jake Peavy - Another guy I've touted as a fantastic fantasy pitcher. He pitched well in his first start. Don't expect this change as long as he's healthy.
Felix Hernandez - I realize he was also listed under Buy Low, but King Felix is for real. Make sure he is on all of your teams if at all possible.
Cole Hamels - Another young guy who shouldn't be underestimated. While his ERA will not remain at 0.00 the entire season, expect Hamels to be a Top 12 pitcher.
Showing posts with label Starting Pitchers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Starting Pitchers. Show all posts
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Friday, April 6, 2007
Overrated Player Alert: Carlos Zambrano
In the latest addition of the Mailbag I advised our anonymous reader to reject his proposed to trade of Carlos Zambrano/Johnny Damon for Brandon Webb/Delmon Young. I then advised him to seek out another trade to rid himself of Carlos Zambrano while his value is high. Reader Keith asked me to explain my distrust of Zambrano. I believe I've briefly mentioned why I dislike Zambrano before, but I'll explain it again now.
Carlos Zambrano has a good K/9 (mid-to-high 8s). That's always a great start for a pitcher, especially for fantasy purposes. But then we look at Zambrano's BB/9. It was 4.84 in 2006. That is incredibly high and makes the type of success many fantasy leaguers expect of Zambrano extremely difficult to come by. Of course that was his highest mark since 2002, but even in 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 3.48 and 3.47, respectively. Zambrano does get a lot of groundballs, which is also a good thing. His career GB Percentage is 51.2%, exceptional for a power pitcher.
A player's K rate and GB rate are difficult to drastically improve, but a player's BB rate is not as difficult. Zambrano has the two easiest going in his favor, and an BB rate under 3 would make Zambrano the pitcher most people think he is. But he is not there. If he is going to make this leap, it is most likely to be in the next 3 years (his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons). 27 is usually the magic number, but it can vary.
Now that I've explained his makeup, I'll explain my dislike for him - this year anyway - as a fantasy pitcher. The crop of pitchers this year is incredible, and I was able to pinpoint some great values. With this being the case, using a 4th or 5th round pick on Zambrano seems foolish, especially when there are pitchers that already have the peripherals I think Zambrano is capable of attaining. Why hope for something to happen when there are players who are already doing it?
While he has a lower GB rate, Jake Peavy has a higher K rate and much lower BB rate. Felix Hernandez has a similar K rate, better GB rate, and a better BB rate. Felix is still just 20 and is entering his third season (another magic number for pitchers). Brett Myers has a similar K rate, better BB rate, and only a slightly worse GB Percentage.
I think you see my point. Why would you want to bank on a possibility when the reality is already there... and at a discounted price!
I strongly suggest anyone who owns Carlos Zambrano to trade him. He certainly could improve his BB rate this year and join the ranks of the elite pitchers, but the player's he'd be joining are already there. Trade him for one of these guys and get a little extra out of it.
Carlos Zambrano has a good K/9 (mid-to-high 8s). That's always a great start for a pitcher, especially for fantasy purposes. But then we look at Zambrano's BB/9. It was 4.84 in 2006. That is incredibly high and makes the type of success many fantasy leaguers expect of Zambrano extremely difficult to come by. Of course that was his highest mark since 2002, but even in 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 3.48 and 3.47, respectively. Zambrano does get a lot of groundballs, which is also a good thing. His career GB Percentage is 51.2%, exceptional for a power pitcher.
A player's K rate and GB rate are difficult to drastically improve, but a player's BB rate is not as difficult. Zambrano has the two easiest going in his favor, and an BB rate under 3 would make Zambrano the pitcher most people think he is. But he is not there. If he is going to make this leap, it is most likely to be in the next 3 years (his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons). 27 is usually the magic number, but it can vary.
Now that I've explained his makeup, I'll explain my dislike for him - this year anyway - as a fantasy pitcher. The crop of pitchers this year is incredible, and I was able to pinpoint some great values. With this being the case, using a 4th or 5th round pick on Zambrano seems foolish, especially when there are pitchers that already have the peripherals I think Zambrano is capable of attaining. Why hope for something to happen when there are players who are already doing it?
While he has a lower GB rate, Jake Peavy has a higher K rate and much lower BB rate. Felix Hernandez has a similar K rate, better GB rate, and a better BB rate. Felix is still just 20 and is entering his third season (another magic number for pitchers). Brett Myers has a similar K rate, better BB rate, and only a slightly worse GB Percentage.
I think you see my point. Why would you want to bank on a possibility when the reality is already there... and at a discounted price!
I strongly suggest anyone who owns Carlos Zambrano to trade him. He certainly could improve his BB rate this year and join the ranks of the elite pitchers, but the player's he'd be joining are already there. Trade him for one of these guys and get a little extra out of it.
Monday, April 2, 2007
Buy Low: Curt Schilling (UPDATED)
I realize it's still very early in the season, but Curt Schilling had a seemingly terrible outing today (4 IP, 8 Hs, 5 ERs). If the Schilling owner in your league panics, make sure to jump on it. Schilling had a 5/2 K/BB and 5 Ks in 4 IP. He allowed 4 GBs compared to 5 FBs. This doesn't add up to 5 ERs. Schilling should bounce back. Take advantage of this if possible. Another similar outing would make him an even better buy low candidate.
UPDATE 4/3: I read this morning that Schilling will 'pitch to contact' for the first time in his career in 2007. This does not sound like good for his fantasy value. He is more of a flyball pitcher to begin with, so a dip in Ks and a spike in HRs doesn't sound very enticing. I'll be watching his next few outings closely to see how best to proceed with Schilling. Even if his K/9 does decrease to 7 or so, he should still be able to keep his BB/9 low and his K/BB around 3.
UPDATE 4/3: I read this morning that Schilling will 'pitch to contact' for the first time in his career in 2007. This does not sound like good for his fantasy value. He is more of a flyball pitcher to begin with, so a dip in Ks and a spike in HRs doesn't sound very enticing. I'll be watching his next few outings closely to see how best to proceed with Schilling. Even if his K/9 does decrease to 7 or so, he should still be able to keep his BB/9 low and his K/BB around 3.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Mailbag: Furcal or Wang?
Here's another mailbag question. Keep them coming! I do my best to answer all of them and some I'll post on here, with your consent.
Evan wrote:
"Derek,
Thanks for the blog, helped me out during my draft. I've done fantasy
baseball before, but this year I'm taking it more seriously than in
the past (or at least I am for now).
I was wondering if you could post some advice about injured players.
I'm in a Yahoo head-to-head league, and I've got both Furcal and
Chien-Ming Wang on my team. The league has one DL spot, but I don't
have a backup shortstop. I'm not asking for any detailed advice, but
do you think I should hold on to both?"
I responded:
"I know exactly what I would do; I would try to get rid of Chien-Ming Wang. I don't like Wang as he will kill you in Ks. His ERA won't be that good - over 4 - and his WHIP will be over 1.30. Combined with a K/9 under 4 and you have a pitcher that doesn't deserve a roster spot. He will pick up wins playing on the Yankees, but I don't believe this justifies the hype surrounding him. I would immediately start trying to trade Wang. Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings and see if you can get a guy like Curt Schilling. Felix Hernandez would be great, but I doubt his owner would bite on that. If you can't nab Schilling, try for Mussina and then A.J. Burnett. Since it's a Yahoo! league you may be able to get a little extra with Burnett as they had him ranked low.
I like Furcal a lot this year. I have him down for a .299 Batting Average and a bunch of Steals. He also has a decent amount of pop for a SS and 12-15 HRs seems likely. He hits in a good lineup and a 100 Runs pace shouldn't be hard to come by, although my formula is still a work in progress. He won't get a ton of RBIs, but he still should be a top 5, possibly top 3 SS. Definitely keep Furcal and stash him on the DL if he misses any time, although yesterday he said he should be ready for Opening Day."
Let me know what you guys would do! And keep those Mailbag questions coming!
Evan wrote:
"Derek,
Thanks for the blog, helped me out during my draft. I've done fantasy
baseball before, but this year I'm taking it more seriously than in
the past (or at least I am for now).
I was wondering if you could post some advice about injured players.
I'm in a Yahoo head-to-head league, and I've got both Furcal and
Chien-Ming Wang on my team. The league has one DL spot, but I don't
have a backup shortstop. I'm not asking for any detailed advice, but
do you think I should hold on to both?"
I responded:
"I know exactly what I would do; I would try to get rid of Chien-Ming Wang. I don't like Wang as he will kill you in Ks. His ERA won't be that good - over 4 - and his WHIP will be over 1.30. Combined with a K/9 under 4 and you have a pitcher that doesn't deserve a roster spot. He will pick up wins playing on the Yankees, but I don't believe this justifies the hype surrounding him. I would immediately start trying to trade Wang. Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings and see if you can get a guy like Curt Schilling. Felix Hernandez would be great, but I doubt his owner would bite on that. If you can't nab Schilling, try for Mussina and then A.J. Burnett. Since it's a Yahoo! league you may be able to get a little extra with Burnett as they had him ranked low.
I like Furcal a lot this year. I have him down for a .299 Batting Average and a bunch of Steals. He also has a decent amount of pop for a SS and 12-15 HRs seems likely. He hits in a good lineup and a 100 Runs pace shouldn't be hard to come by, although my formula is still a work in progress. He won't get a ton of RBIs, but he still should be a top 5, possibly top 3 SS. Definitely keep Furcal and stash him on the DL if he misses any time, although yesterday he said he should be ready for Opening Day."
Let me know what you guys would do! And keep those Mailbag questions coming!
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Overhyped Player: SP Chris Young
San Diego's Chris Young.
MLB.com has him at #16 (ahead of Schilling, Felix, Sheets, Myers, Burnett, Escobar, and Harden)
Brandon Funston at Yahoo! has him as #18 (in the same tier as Smoltz, Sheets, and Felix and one ahead of Schilling)
ESPN has him at #18 (ahead of Sabathia, Hamels, Burnett, Schilling, Mussina, and Vazquez)
RotoWorld has him at #23 (ahead of Kazmir, Hamels, Haren, and Burnett) The Saberoticians have him at #33 (behind all of the aformentioned players)
Chris Young is a decent pitcher with a little upside. He is entering his third year, a prime breakout year, but as we know this doesn't always lead to success.
Young is very good a striking guys out (8.23 K/9 in 2006), but his command isn't bad. He had a 3.46 BB/9 in 2006, but had a 2.46 BB/9 in 2005. He will need to get back to that level in order to be successful this year. He has a horrendous GB Percentage - 25.4% in 2006! It is very difficult to become a good pitcher with a GB Percentage that low. It was 32.7% in 2005, but even that is terrible.
Chris Young was aided last year by an absurd .228 Batting Average on Balls in Play. League average is close to .290. Chris Young's ERA could have been near 5.00 had his BABIP been .290 and we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion right now. He have up one more HR than he should have, and I wouldn't expect any fewer than 30 HRs for 2007 in Young pitchers 200 innings.
All in all, Young is a decent pitcher with room to improve on his BB/9 and might even jump a little in K/9 (although a slight regression is also possible). He is just being drafted too early for my liking, and hopefully for yours too.
Chris Young is a decent pitcher with a little upside. He is entering his third year, a prime breakout year, but as we know this doesn't always lead to success.
Young is very good a striking guys out (8.23 K/9 in 2006), but his command isn't bad. He had a 3.46 BB/9 in 2006, but had a 2.46 BB/9 in 2005. He will need to get back to that level in order to be successful this year. He has a horrendous GB Percentage - 25.4% in 2006! It is very difficult to become a good pitcher with a GB Percentage that low. It was 32.7% in 2005, but even that is terrible.
Chris Young was aided last year by an absurd .228 Batting Average on Balls in Play. League average is close to .290. Chris Young's ERA could have been near 5.00 had his BABIP been .290 and we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion right now. He have up one more HR than he should have, and I wouldn't expect any fewer than 30 HRs for 2007 in Young pitchers 200 innings.
All in all, Young is a decent pitcher with room to improve on his BB/9 and might even jump a little in K/9 (although a slight regression is also possible). He is just being drafted too early for my liking, and hopefully for yours too.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Overhyped Player: Ervin Santana
I have read on a few sites recently some praise for Ervin Santana. The argument dictates how Santana is a third year starting pitcher who had decent numbers last year and should improve upon them this year. Some have even said Santana could wind up in the Top 20 SPs by year's end.
I disagree. Santana is a decent pitcher, but nothing more. I doubt he will ever become something more. Most of his numbers seem to have reached their ceiling. The first is Groundball Percentage. This is something that rarely fluctuates more than a few points unless new pitches are added to a guy's repertoire. Santana's was 36.6% in 2005 and 38.4% in 2006. Not very good. I don't see much improvement here.
To make up for a low GB Percentage, a pitcher has to strike a lot of guys out and keep his walk rate fairly low in order to become a top pitcher. Santana had a 6.22 K/9. While a spike is possible, I highly doubt Santana will get that around 8 where it needs to be. I even see 7 as a stretch. Guys don't just all of a sudden start striking more guys out because they've been in the league for two years. Doesn't happen very often.
That's two strikes against Santana. To retaliate from this he needs impeccable control... which he doesn't have. Control is the most likely of the three most important stats to improve upon. Santana had a 3.09 BB/9 in 2006, which is decent. That gave him a 2.01 K/BB.
If he could get his K/9 to 7.00 and his BB/9 to 2.5, he could be pretty effective. But even if that happened, he still wouldn't be a Top 20 SP. He probably wouldn't even be a Top 30 SP.
So why are people so high on Santana? Because his surface numbers last year (4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 21 HRs) look pretty good. What these people aren't looking at is his .266 BABIP - well below average - and his 29 Expected Home Runs. He should have given up 8 more HRs and a ton more hits. This will even out this year and Santana could fall into Fantasy Baseball obscurity if he doesn't improve his peripherals.
Don't buy into the false hype. Avoid Ervin Santana.
I disagree. Santana is a decent pitcher, but nothing more. I doubt he will ever become something more. Most of his numbers seem to have reached their ceiling. The first is Groundball Percentage. This is something that rarely fluctuates more than a few points unless new pitches are added to a guy's repertoire. Santana's was 36.6% in 2005 and 38.4% in 2006. Not very good. I don't see much improvement here.
To make up for a low GB Percentage, a pitcher has to strike a lot of guys out and keep his walk rate fairly low in order to become a top pitcher. Santana had a 6.22 K/9. While a spike is possible, I highly doubt Santana will get that around 8 where it needs to be. I even see 7 as a stretch. Guys don't just all of a sudden start striking more guys out because they've been in the league for two years. Doesn't happen very often.
That's two strikes against Santana. To retaliate from this he needs impeccable control... which he doesn't have. Control is the most likely of the three most important stats to improve upon. Santana had a 3.09 BB/9 in 2006, which is decent. That gave him a 2.01 K/BB.
If he could get his K/9 to 7.00 and his BB/9 to 2.5, he could be pretty effective. But even if that happened, he still wouldn't be a Top 20 SP. He probably wouldn't even be a Top 30 SP.
So why are people so high on Santana? Because his surface numbers last year (4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 21 HRs) look pretty good. What these people aren't looking at is his .266 BABIP - well below average - and his 29 Expected Home Runs. He should have given up 8 more HRs and a ton more hits. This will even out this year and Santana could fall into Fantasy Baseball obscurity if he doesn't improve his peripherals.
Don't buy into the false hype. Avoid Ervin Santana.
Friday, March 16, 2007
My Team's Pitching Staff
I've been posting rankings and advice and reasons behind them, but I've never actually mentioned any of my own teams. Today I'll go over my pitching staff in my favorite league. I play in it with a bunch of my friends, and I find this to be the most fun league I play in. Here's my pitching staff in addition to the round I took him in.
This is a Yahoo! league with the following roster spots:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, UT
SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P
5 Bench Spots
It is a 10-team league and our draft lasted 25 rounds. I had the 10th pick. Two rounds are given as I had back-to-back picks and it didn't matter which of the two rounds I technically took him in.
3/4. Jake Peavy - perhaps a round early, but I wanted him badly.
5/6. Felix Hernandez - Yahoo! has him ranked very highly and he was the second pitcher left on Yahoo!s board when I took him; I couldn't risk not getting him in the next round as I'd planned.
9/10. Curt Schilling - I love Schilling, and I think he is a steal here.
9/10. Brett Myers - Myers had normally been going in Round 8 in 10 team leagues, and I thought he was a good value here. I also knew that my friend was targeting Burnett, Bush, Escobar, and Vazquez late, so taking Myers here insured I wouldn't end up with too few quality pitchers. I hadn't intended on taking Myers, but with Chipper Jones gone and my next few targets a reach here, Myers seemed like the right pick.
17/18. Javier Vazquez - As I suspected, A.J. Burnett was taken the pick before by my friend and I had to settle for Vazquez. Kelvim Escobar was taken by the same friend with the second pick of Round 18. Surprisingly, another friend liked Bush more than I do and took him in Round 16. Looks like Myers was a good pick.
19/20. Octavio Dotel - Valverde went in Round 16, earlier than I would have liked, and my friend who took Burnett and Escobar took Saito right before I could here. I settled for my third choice, Dotel. Not a huge problem, as I will surely find some good bargains on the waiver wire throughout the year.
21/22. Scott Olsen - I'd rather have Escobar, Vazquez, or Bush as my #5 SP, but I could do worse than Olsen.
23/24. Derek Lowe - Not who I wanted to get, but he will provide a good ERA. Considering the K-machine I'd built throughout the draft, I could afford an average amount of Ks from Lowe. His WHIP will be decent, not great. Could have done worse. Philip Hughes or possibly Mike Pelfrey will most likely take his spot on my roster later in the year. Roger Clemens could as well if the guy who drafted him gets sick of waiting and drops him.
25 - Akinori Otsuka - Last pick of the draft, no closers left who are guaranteed a job... Otsuka seemed like a decent pick. I don't intend for him to be on my roster on April 1st, but seeing as how my draft was held in Mid-February I thought I'd see how Eric Gagne held up through Spring Training. I will probably drop him within the next couple weeks and pick up Kevin Gregg if Gagne doesn't get hurt and the Marlins give Gregg the job to start the season. My league - correctly - doesn't value Middle Relievers very highly, and Otsuka should still be there should Gagne go down later in the year.
The staff I hoped to get:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Valverde
RP Saito
P Schilling
P Burnett
P Vazquez
BN Escobar
BN Bush/Olsen/Dotel
The staff I ended up with:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Dotel
RP Otsuka (Gregg)
P Schilling
P Myers
P Vazquez
BN Olsen
BN Lowe
Overall I think I did pretty well. I missed my closers, but I should be able to get some quality guys throughout the year, as I've been preaching for a while now.
If you have any questions or comments about my team's pitching, feel free to let me know!
Now, back to some more March Madness action! I might post a little during the break from 5 to 7. I'll also be working on the Run and RBI formulas.
This is a Yahoo! league with the following roster spots:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, UT
SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P
5 Bench Spots
It is a 10-team league and our draft lasted 25 rounds. I had the 10th pick. Two rounds are given as I had back-to-back picks and it didn't matter which of the two rounds I technically took him in.
3/4. Jake Peavy - perhaps a round early, but I wanted him badly.
5/6. Felix Hernandez - Yahoo! has him ranked very highly and he was the second pitcher left on Yahoo!s board when I took him; I couldn't risk not getting him in the next round as I'd planned.
9/10. Curt Schilling - I love Schilling, and I think he is a steal here.
9/10. Brett Myers - Myers had normally been going in Round 8 in 10 team leagues, and I thought he was a good value here. I also knew that my friend was targeting Burnett, Bush, Escobar, and Vazquez late, so taking Myers here insured I wouldn't end up with too few quality pitchers. I hadn't intended on taking Myers, but with Chipper Jones gone and my next few targets a reach here, Myers seemed like the right pick.
17/18. Javier Vazquez - As I suspected, A.J. Burnett was taken the pick before by my friend and I had to settle for Vazquez. Kelvim Escobar was taken by the same friend with the second pick of Round 18. Surprisingly, another friend liked Bush more than I do and took him in Round 16. Looks like Myers was a good pick.
19/20. Octavio Dotel - Valverde went in Round 16, earlier than I would have liked, and my friend who took Burnett and Escobar took Saito right before I could here. I settled for my third choice, Dotel. Not a huge problem, as I will surely find some good bargains on the waiver wire throughout the year.
21/22. Scott Olsen - I'd rather have Escobar, Vazquez, or Bush as my #5 SP, but I could do worse than Olsen.
23/24. Derek Lowe - Not who I wanted to get, but he will provide a good ERA. Considering the K-machine I'd built throughout the draft, I could afford an average amount of Ks from Lowe. His WHIP will be decent, not great. Could have done worse. Philip Hughes or possibly Mike Pelfrey will most likely take his spot on my roster later in the year. Roger Clemens could as well if the guy who drafted him gets sick of waiting and drops him.
25 - Akinori Otsuka - Last pick of the draft, no closers left who are guaranteed a job... Otsuka seemed like a decent pick. I don't intend for him to be on my roster on April 1st, but seeing as how my draft was held in Mid-February I thought I'd see how Eric Gagne held up through Spring Training. I will probably drop him within the next couple weeks and pick up Kevin Gregg if Gagne doesn't get hurt and the Marlins give Gregg the job to start the season. My league - correctly - doesn't value Middle Relievers very highly, and Otsuka should still be there should Gagne go down later in the year.
The staff I hoped to get:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Valverde
RP Saito
P Schilling
P Burnett
P Vazquez
BN Escobar
BN Bush/Olsen/Dotel
The staff I ended up with:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Dotel
RP Otsuka (Gregg)
P Schilling
P Myers
P Vazquez
BN Olsen
BN Lowe
Overall I think I did pretty well. I missed my closers, but I should be able to get some quality guys throughout the year, as I've been preaching for a while now.
If you have any questions or comments about my team's pitching, feel free to let me know!
Now, back to some more March Madness action! I might post a little during the break from 5 to 7. I'll also be working on the Run and RBI formulas.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Draft Day Strategy - Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are an interesting breed, and there are always different ideas on where they should be drafted. Some say pitching stats are volatile, and the downside for any pitcher, even a top pitcher like Johan Santana, is much greater than it is for a hitter. These people say you should wait on pitchers and grab bargains later in the draft, where you're not investing too much. Others will tell you that there are only a few elite starting pitchers, and that it's necessary to grab at least one or two early.
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Bust Alert - Barry Zito
When I heard that the San Francisco Giants had signed Barry Zito to a $128 million, I'm not sure what processed first: the stupidity of the signing or the excitment that it was the Giants - and not my Mets - that had done the signing. After it had registered, I couldn't help doing a little dance in excitment. While my Mets are still missing an Ace Starting Pitcher, Barry Zito was not this Ace.
Barry Zito, due to his great 2002 Cy Young season, his well-known 12-6 curveball, and his rock star image has become one of the most well-known pitchers in baseball. With Matsuzaka quickly scooped up the the Red Sox, Zito - to the common fan - appeared to be the best option left on the market. For whatever reason, the San Francisco Giants decided it was a wise move to sign him to the largest contract ever tendered a pitcher in major league history. The large sum was partially influenced by marketing opportunies for the team, but Zito still will not be worth it. Here's why.
To start with, his luck dependent numbers have never been that great, with the exception of 2002. His ERA has always been around 4.00. His K/9 is only around 6.25 - a huge drawback for fantasy purposes. His command is terrible, between 3.5 and 4.0 BB/9 over the past 4 years. In that timespan, his K/BB has gone above 2.00 just once - and it barely made it. The last reason I dislike Barry Zito is that his GB Percentage has gone above 40% just once in his career.
Please heed my warning. Do not take Barry Zito this year. He is not a good pitcher, and will rely heavily on luck if he is to have anymore than a #3 starter's season.
Barry Zito, due to his great 2002 Cy Young season, his well-known 12-6 curveball, and his rock star image has become one of the most well-known pitchers in baseball. With Matsuzaka quickly scooped up the the Red Sox, Zito - to the common fan - appeared to be the best option left on the market. For whatever reason, the San Francisco Giants decided it was a wise move to sign him to the largest contract ever tendered a pitcher in major league history. The large sum was partially influenced by marketing opportunies for the team, but Zito still will not be worth it. Here's why.
To start with, his luck dependent numbers have never been that great, with the exception of 2002. His ERA has always been around 4.00. His K/9 is only around 6.25 - a huge drawback for fantasy purposes. His command is terrible, between 3.5 and 4.0 BB/9 over the past 4 years. In that timespan, his K/BB has gone above 2.00 just once - and it barely made it. The last reason I dislike Barry Zito is that his GB Percentage has gone above 40% just once in his career.
Please heed my warning. Do not take Barry Zito this year. He is not a good pitcher, and will rely heavily on luck if he is to have anymore than a #3 starter's season.
What about... Other Starting Pitchers
I was recently asked where some of these pitchers would rank:
1) Dontrelle Willis
2) Justin Verlander
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Ervin Santana
5) Chien-Ming Wang
6) Freddy Garcia
7) Ian Snell
8) Kevin Millwood
9) Anibal Sanchez
10)Jose Contreras
11)Chuck James
12)Jon Garland
13)Mark Buehrle
14)Tim Hudson
15)Cliff Lee
I think it would be a good idea to address some of these guys for those of you that might be thinking about drafting them. First off, anyone not in my Top 45 probably isn't a very good guy to pick. They will all have faults.
D-Train is a popular guy, but an overrated pitcher. Dontrelle, Contreras, Snell, Millwood, and Buehrle fall between #45 and #55. Snell has some potential to improve. He had a good K/9 and a decent GB Percentage. If he could keep the same GB Percentage and improve his control - the easiest of our 3 critical factors for young pitchers to improve - he could become a good fantasy pitcher. I wouldn't take him though just based on something he could do.
Verlander, while popularized by his seemingly great season last year, isn't that great. His low K/9 diminishes a lot of his value, and his K/BB barely made it over 2 last year. His GB Percentage is also a rather average 42%. He should have given up an extra 5 HRs last year.
Chien-Ming Wang is an interesting suspect. Despite his low K rate, he is a fairly effective pitcher. His GB Percentage is great (63%), but his K/BB is below 2. His lack of Ks makes him almost worthless in that category, and hurts his WHIP a lot. The less Ks you get, the more balls get put in play. The more balls put in play, the more turn into hits. His K/9 is so low he is rendered almost useless in two categories and therefore is a terrible fantasy option. His Fantasy Score was a poor 6.57, putting him near #100.
Arroyo, Santana, Garcia, Hudson, and Lee have low GB Percentages which makes them too susceptible to HRs in addition to low K rates. They are ranked between 60 and 80. Arroyo, Garcia, Hudson, Santana, Lee is the order in which them appear.
Anibal Sanchez appears about 7 spots below Santana. He had a terrible K/BB and low K/9 last year, but his minor league stats suggest both could improve. He's just not a risk that is necessary to take with so many proven players available this year.
Garland has great command and a good GB Percentage, but his K/9 below 5 makes him an unusable fantasy option, much like Wang. He is ranked worse than Wang though, outside the Top 100.
Chuck James is also outside the Top 100. He has an average K/9, but his control isn't very good. This could be improved, but it is unlikely he can also improve his GB Percentage to an acceptable point. It was an abysmal 27% last year.
I hope this clears things up about some of these well-known pitchers that I failed to include in my Top 45 Starting Pitcher Rankings.
A Final Note
Our rankings aren't meant to pick out guys who will do poorly as much as they are meant to pick out guys who will play well. Reducing risk by picking quality pitchers is usually the best strategy you can use.
Sources:
Batted ball data, as always, comes from The Hardball Times
1) Dontrelle Willis
2) Justin Verlander
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Ervin Santana
5) Chien-Ming Wang
6) Freddy Garcia
7) Ian Snell
8) Kevin Millwood
9) Anibal Sanchez
10)Jose Contreras
11)Chuck James
12)Jon Garland
13)Mark Buehrle
14)Tim Hudson
15)Cliff Lee
I think it would be a good idea to address some of these guys for those of you that might be thinking about drafting them. First off, anyone not in my Top 45 probably isn't a very good guy to pick. They will all have faults.
D-Train is a popular guy, but an overrated pitcher. Dontrelle, Contreras, Snell, Millwood, and Buehrle fall between #45 and #55. Snell has some potential to improve. He had a good K/9 and a decent GB Percentage. If he could keep the same GB Percentage and improve his control - the easiest of our 3 critical factors for young pitchers to improve - he could become a good fantasy pitcher. I wouldn't take him though just based on something he could do.
Verlander, while popularized by his seemingly great season last year, isn't that great. His low K/9 diminishes a lot of his value, and his K/BB barely made it over 2 last year. His GB Percentage is also a rather average 42%. He should have given up an extra 5 HRs last year.
Chien-Ming Wang is an interesting suspect. Despite his low K rate, he is a fairly effective pitcher. His GB Percentage is great (63%), but his K/BB is below 2. His lack of Ks makes him almost worthless in that category, and hurts his WHIP a lot. The less Ks you get, the more balls get put in play. The more balls put in play, the more turn into hits. His K/9 is so low he is rendered almost useless in two categories and therefore is a terrible fantasy option. His Fantasy Score was a poor 6.57, putting him near #100.
Arroyo, Santana, Garcia, Hudson, and Lee have low GB Percentages which makes them too susceptible to HRs in addition to low K rates. They are ranked between 60 and 80. Arroyo, Garcia, Hudson, Santana, Lee is the order in which them appear.
Anibal Sanchez appears about 7 spots below Santana. He had a terrible K/BB and low K/9 last year, but his minor league stats suggest both could improve. He's just not a risk that is necessary to take with so many proven players available this year.
Garland has great command and a good GB Percentage, but his K/9 below 5 makes him an unusable fantasy option, much like Wang. He is ranked worse than Wang though, outside the Top 100.
Chuck James is also outside the Top 100. He has an average K/9, but his control isn't very good. This could be improved, but it is unlikely he can also improve his GB Percentage to an acceptable point. It was an abysmal 27% last year.
I hope this clears things up about some of these well-known pitchers that I failed to include in my Top 45 Starting Pitcher Rankings.
A Final Note
Our rankings aren't meant to pick out guys who will do poorly as much as they are meant to pick out guys who will play well. Reducing risk by picking quality pitchers is usually the best strategy you can use.
Sources:
Batted ball data, as always, comes from The Hardball Times
What about... Dice-K, Papelbon, and Wainwright
I was recently asked where Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, and Adam Wainwright would rank had a included them in my projections.
Daisuke Matsuzaka isn't on my list because we weren't able to find batted ball stats for him, so his projection was incomplete. What stats we did have were very impressive though. He had a 5.8 K/BB, 9.6 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9. It's very difficult to tell how these stats will translate to America, but I would bet he becomes a fairly good pitcher over here. If he posts a 7.5 K/9, a 3 K/BB, and even a Groundball Percentage of 40%, he would be ranked around #35-40. He could just easily best those numbers as he could do worse. I haven't down very much research into how Japanese pitching stats translate to America. There are enough safer options available that I would say to ignore Dice-K, at least to start the year. If I can get some Spring Training batted ball stats on him I'll post more on him towards the end of the month.
Wainwright and Papelbon are very different players. Papelbon is more of a boom or bust type, while Wainwright is a little safer. Papelbon had lots of Ks and a K/BB near 6, but his GB Percentage was a terrible 37%. He could be decent if he can keep his K/BB near 3 and his K/9 about 7.5, but there is no guarantee on this. Wainwright has a better GB Percentage - 47.5% - but a worse K/BB - 3.27. His K/9 is also lower, 8.64, which may be difficult to keep above 7 as a starter.
We're all about reducing risk at the Saberoticians, and these three guys could be good, but could just as easily be average. We prefer safer options. Draft Curt Schilling instead of Matsuzaka, A.J. Burnett over Papelbon, and Kelvim Escobar, Javier Vazquez, or Dave Bush instead of Wainwright. You'll be happy you did.
Daisuke Matsuzaka isn't on my list because we weren't able to find batted ball stats for him, so his projection was incomplete. What stats we did have were very impressive though. He had a 5.8 K/BB, 9.6 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9. It's very difficult to tell how these stats will translate to America, but I would bet he becomes a fairly good pitcher over here. If he posts a 7.5 K/9, a 3 K/BB, and even a Groundball Percentage of 40%, he would be ranked around #35-40. He could just easily best those numbers as he could do worse. I haven't down very much research into how Japanese pitching stats translate to America. There are enough safer options available that I would say to ignore Dice-K, at least to start the year. If I can get some Spring Training batted ball stats on him I'll post more on him towards the end of the month.
Wainwright and Papelbon are very different players. Papelbon is more of a boom or bust type, while Wainwright is a little safer. Papelbon had lots of Ks and a K/BB near 6, but his GB Percentage was a terrible 37%. He could be decent if he can keep his K/BB near 3 and his K/9 about 7.5, but there is no guarantee on this. Wainwright has a better GB Percentage - 47.5% - but a worse K/BB - 3.27. His K/9 is also lower, 8.64, which may be difficult to keep above 7 as a starter.
We're all about reducing risk at the Saberoticians, and these three guys could be good, but could just as easily be average. We prefer safer options. Draft Curt Schilling instead of Matsuzaka, A.J. Burnett over Papelbon, and Kelvim Escobar, Javier Vazquez, or Dave Bush instead of Wainwright. You'll be happy you did.
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