Overrated Player Alert: Carlos Zambrano

In the latest addition of the Mailbag I advised our anonymous reader to reject his proposed to trade of Carlos Zambrano/Johnny Damon for Brandon Webb/Delmon Young. I then advised him to seek out another trade to rid himself of Carlos Zambrano while his value is high. Reader Keith asked me to explain my distrust of Zambrano. I believe I've briefly mentioned why I dislike Zambrano before, but I'll explain it again now.

Carlos Zambrano has a good K/9 (mid-to-high 8s). That's always a great start for a pitcher, especially for fantasy purposes. But then we look at Zambrano's BB/9. It was 4.84 in 2006. That is incredibly high and makes the type of success many fantasy leaguers expect of Zambrano extremely difficult to come by. Of course that was his highest mark since 2002, but even in 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 3.48 and 3.47, respectively. Zambrano does get a lot of groundballs, which is also a good thing. His career GB Percentage is 51.2%, exceptional for a power pitcher.

A player's K rate and GB rate are difficult to drastically improve, but a player's BB rate is not as difficult. Zambrano has the two easiest going in his favor, and an BB rate under 3 would make Zambrano the pitcher most people think he is. But he is not there. If he is going to make this leap, it is most likely to be in the next 3 years (his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons). 27 is usually the magic number, but it can vary.

Now that I've explained his makeup, I'll explain my dislike for him - this year anyway - as a fantasy pitcher. The crop of pitchers this year is incredible, and I was able to pinpoint some great values. With this being the case, using a 4th or 5th round pick on Zambrano seems foolish, especially when there are pitchers that already have the peripherals I think Zambrano is capable of attaining. Why hope for something to happen when there are players who are already doing it?

While he has a lower GB rate, Jake Peavy has a higher K rate and much lower BB rate. Felix Hernandez has a similar K rate, better GB rate, and a better BB rate. Felix is still just 20 and is entering his third season (another magic number for pitchers). Brett Myers has a similar K rate, better BB rate, and only a slightly worse GB Percentage.

I think you see my point. Why would you want to bank on a possibility when the reality is already there... and at a discounted price!

I strongly suggest anyone who owns Carlos Zambrano to trade him. He certainly could improve his BB rate this year and join the ranks of the elite pitchers, but the player's he'd be joining are already there. Trade him for one of these guys and get a little extra out of it.

ProTrade's All-Lucky Team = Very Similar to Our Findings

I just read a post over at ProTrade. "PROTRADE has mapped out every inch of the diamond, charting every batted ball in the majors over the past five years, calculating the probability that given their distance, direction and hardness, they become hits or outs."

This is very similar to the type of thing I advocated in my Power Hitting Sabermetrics Explanation.

Anyway, after reading the results of this team and checking my own data, I found that ProTrade has come up with very similar results to me. Below is a list of all of the players listed on their 2006 MLB All-Lucky Team, ProTrade's Expected Batting Average, and the Saberoticians Expected Batting Average.

C - Joe Mauer - .312 - .313
1B - Jim Thome - .267 - .264
2B - Dan Uggla - .250 - .272
SS - Hanley Ramirez - .265 - .276
3B - Mark Teahen - .265 - .257
LF - Manny Ramirez - .297 - .309
CF - Gary Matthews Jr. - .262 - .281
RF - Bobby Abreu - .276 - .277

We see that ProTrade and the Saberoticians agree almost exactly on Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Mark Teahen, and Bobby Abreu.

ProTrade admitted that Speed was not incorporated into their Expected Batting Averages, just batted balls. I do incorporate speed into mine in the form of Infield Hits - groundballs legged out by fast players. The players we disagree on by more than .010 - Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Gary Matthews Jr. - all legged out a good amount of groundballs.

We are .012 apart on Manny Ramirez... not bad. We both agree he shouldn't have hit as high as he did last year.

All in all, I love what this article presents. This is something I will dig deeper into, but I think it shows that the way I do things now is also very accurate.