Mailbag: Atkins/Hall/Jacobs for Thome/Wagner?

Here's another question from our Fantasy Baseball Mailbag from an anonymous reader.

Our reader writes:

"Hey Derek, great blog.

If you have a moment, I wanted to know what you thought about this trade.

12 team, 5x5 head to head league (default settings).

My team:

C: Lo Duca, Barrett
1B: A. Gonazalez, M. Jacobs
2B: I. Kinsler
3B: D. Wright, G. Atkins, B. Hall
SS: B. Hall
OF: C. Crawford, B. Abreu, R. Ibanez
SP: G. Maddux, J. Smoltz, C. Schilling, A. Wainright, D. Bush, K. Escobar, F. Garcia, C.C. Sabathia
RP: T. Saito, J. Soria

Here's the offer:

I give: B. Hall, G. Atkins and M. Jacobs

I Receive: J. Thome, B. Wagner

Pros:
1) I need closer help desperately, and there is no one, aside from Julio available, and Wagner is among the best.
2) With D. Wright at 3B, G. Atkins is expendable.
3) I just picked up Jacobs, and who knows if he'll keep up his current pace.
4) If Thome remains healthy, he should be a nice HR / RBI boost from the Util. slot.

Cons:
1) Thome is injury prone.
2) I'll be leaving my non-pitching roster a bit thin - picking up the likes of Khalil Greene (or R. Aurilia) at SS, and relying on A. Gonzalez at 1B.
3) I feel like this trade will force me into needing to trade away some pitching to balance out my roster.

What do you think?

Thanks."

I responded:

"Z,
I would most likely not pursue this trade. I believe Garrett Atkins will be a first round pick next year and quite possibly the first third baseman taken. I actually believe he could be a better hitter than A-Rod. I like him much more than David Wright, despite being a Mets fan and a huge David Wright fan. If you are going to trade a third Baseman, I would trade Wright. I think he is the inferior player and has more value. Try trading Wright for a guy like David Ortiz or Lance Berkman if you don't trust your 1B, or a guy like Manny Ramirez if you need an OF (Ibanez is only so-so).

I like Mike Jacobs. He is a good bet to approach 30 HRs this year and is a pretty good contact hitter with pretty good discipline. You could do a lot worse than him.

I also would not suggest trading for a closer. I've written a lot about closers over the past month, and if you read this post about my strategy concerning closers, I think you'll see that they are highly overvalued. While Wagner is a better pitcher than Soria or Saito, how many more saves do you expect him to get you? The Dodgers created 61 save opportunites last year while the Mets created 61. Wagner will probably get a few more saves than Saito, but this is not worth the price he would cost you. Working the waiver wire for cheaps saves is a much better alternative. Henry Owens should pick up a few for the Marlins over the next few weeks. Try picking him up.

Last, if you're looking for a high HR/RBI utility man, Frank Thomas is your guy. I wrote about him a few weeks ago. He's a great player who is severely undervalued.

One last bit of advice: trade Freddy Garcia for a better pitcher. Check out my rankings for some good targets.

I hope this helps! Good luck this season!"

Let your thoughts on this trade be known!

What about... Other Starting Pitchers

I was recently asked where some of these pitchers would rank:
1) Dontrelle Willis
2) Justin Verlander
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Ervin Santana
5) Chien-Ming Wang
6) Freddy Garcia
7) Ian Snell
8) Kevin Millwood
9) Anibal Sanchez
10)Jose Contreras
11)Chuck James
12)Jon Garland
13)Mark Buehrle
14)Tim Hudson
15)Cliff Lee

I think it would be a good idea to address some of these guys for those of you that might be thinking about drafting them. First off, anyone not in my Top 45 probably isn't a very good guy to pick. They will all have faults.

D-Train is a popular guy, but an overrated pitcher. Dontrelle, Contreras, Snell, Millwood, and Buehrle fall between #45 and #55. Snell has some potential to improve. He had a good K/9 and a decent GB Percentage. If he could keep the same GB Percentage and improve his control - the easiest of our 3 critical factors for young pitchers to improve - he could become a good fantasy pitcher. I wouldn't take him though just based on something he could do.

Verlander, while popularized by his seemingly great season last year, isn't that great. His low K/9 diminishes a lot of his value, and his K/BB barely made it over 2 last year. His GB Percentage is also a rather average 42%. He should have given up an extra 5 HRs last year.

Chien-Ming Wang is an interesting suspect. Despite his low K rate, he is a fairly effective pitcher. His GB Percentage is great (63%), but his K/BB is below 2. His lack of Ks makes him almost worthless in that category, and hurts his WHIP a lot. The less Ks you get, the more balls get put in play. The more balls put in play, the more turn into hits. His K/9 is so low he is rendered almost useless in two categories and therefore is a terrible fantasy option. His Fantasy Score was a poor 6.57, putting him near #100.

Arroyo, Santana, Garcia, Hudson, and Lee have low GB Percentages which makes them too susceptible to HRs in addition to low K rates. They are ranked between 60 and 80. Arroyo, Garcia, Hudson, Santana, Lee is the order in which them appear.

Anibal Sanchez appears about 7 spots below Santana. He had a terrible K/BB and low K/9 last year, but his minor league stats suggest both could improve. He's just not a risk that is necessary to take with so many proven players available this year.

Garland has great command and a good GB Percentage, but his K/9 below 5 makes him an unusable fantasy option, much like Wang. He is ranked worse than Wang though, outside the Top 100.

Chuck James is also outside the Top 100. He has an average K/9, but his control isn't very good. This could be improved, but it is unlikely he can also improve his GB Percentage to an acceptable point. It was an abysmal 27% last year.

I hope this clears things up about some of these well-known pitchers that I failed to include in my Top 45 Starting Pitcher Rankings.

A Final Note
Our rankings aren't meant to pick out guys who will do poorly as much as they are meant to pick out guys who will play well. Reducing risk by picking quality pitchers is usually the best strategy you can use.

Sources:
Batted ball data, as always, comes from The Hardball Times