Waiver Wire - National League

OK. Here's the National League Waiver Wire for this week.

National League

Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.

Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.

Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn't been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.

Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven't been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg's numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I've had a few questions on him this week, so I'll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn't have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he's had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves's go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I'll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.

Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn't a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it's tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He's got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren't very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He's in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Closer Updates

Jeremy Accardo has officially been given the Blue Jays closing job, so make sure he is owned in every league.

Jorge Julio was traded by the Marlins today. That leaves Taylor Tankersley as the most likely candidate to get saves in Marlins bullpen... at least until Henry Owens gets back. Neither have great peripherals, but someone has to close and the Marlins closer - whoever it is at any particular time - should probably be owned in all leagues.

Henry Owens to the DL

Henry Owens, Florida Marlins closer, has been sent to the Disabled List. So who will take his place as closer? The Marlins would eventually like to get Jorge Julio back into this role. His first outing the other day was very good, but I think it's too soon for the Marlins to trust Julio with the role. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said, "He's the guy we want. The guy's got experience to do it but we've got to build confidence in him." The player who would be the best bet to get the most saves right now is Taylor Tankersley, although his numbers haven't been very inspiring thus far (5.40 K/9 | 3.60 BB/9 | 34.5% GB).

However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.

Taylor Tankersley Watch

For those of you into speculation on closers, Taylor Tankersley got one step closer to taking the job in Florida tonight. Henry Owens gave up two runs and had to be removed from the game with 2 outs in the ninth and a runner on second. Taylor Tankersley is the logical choice to be next in line as he was the favorite in January before his injury, pitched well in the majors last year, and has pitched well thus far in 2007.

Owens's peripherals are not especially good this year, but I wouldn't bench him yet. Saves are saves and a couple of runs here or there from a closer isn't the end of the world. In deep leagues, Tankersley is probably already owned, but if he's not you should jump on him. If Owens continues like this Tankersley could have the job within two weeks.

Keep a close eye on this situation. If Tankersley is to take the job I don't see him giving it up before the end of the year and for years to come. Matt Lindstrom and Kevin Gregg are darkhorse candidates for the job, but I truly think Tankersley will get the next shot.

Waiver Wire - National League

Here is the National League edition of Waiver Wire for this week. Again, most weeks this will be out on Saturday or Sunday. Enjoy.

National League

Henry Owens | FLA | CL - The Jasor Frasor of the National League. He hasn't pitched exceptionally well - peripheral wise - so far this year, but if his dominance in AA last year was any indication, that could change very quickly. Should be good for some saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - A highly overlooked player on draft day, I own Edwin in a couple of leagues. If his owner in your league decides to drop him, pounce on him and wait for the rebound. His Contact Rate is down from last year, but his LD Percentage and BB rates are up. His .241 BABIP won't stick. Got unlucky with HRs last year, so expect a good BA in addition to 20-25 HRs and 10 or so SBs in 2007. He hits in a good lineup, so he should get his fair share of RBIs and Runs too.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Perhaps my favorite rookie this year. Quentin had an 86% Contact Rate and 19% Line Drive rate in the minors last year, in addition to 9 HRs and 33 2Bs and 3Bs in 318 ABs. His 11.4% BB rate is also very good. He is hitting 5th tonight ahead of Byrnes, Hudson, and Tracy and behind Conor Jackson and Chris Young. If he ends up batting further down his value may diminish, but Quentin is a good player and there are a lot of players currently on rosters in my leagues that I'd take him over. Even more valuable in keeper leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Expected to bat leadoff, the Diamondbacks now have him batting at the bottom of the order. If he can pick up his game he may get the job, but Young still is valuable as a bench player as is. An 82% LD Rate and 15% LD Rate in the minors last year are nothing to drool over, but an 11.2% BB rate is. This could help him reach 20 SBs. He also has some power, hitting 21 HRs and 36 2Bs and 3Bs last year.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Johnson is getting unlucky, so if his owner drops him, or if he has been on your waiver wire from the start, consider picking him up. We don't have a ton of information to go by, but he has a 90% Contact and 19% Walk rate so far. His 11% LD Rate is something to worry about, but hes got some pop in his bat and could net some cheap HRs. 15-20 SBs is also a possibility. Hitting atop the Braves lineup should net him a ton of Runs, especially if he can keep a good BB rate.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Mike Pelfrey | NYM | SP - Pelfrey is a guy with great numbers last year in the minors. He has the benefit of playing with a good offense and bullpen, so if his numbers translate well to the major he could end up being a huge bargain.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Penny | LAD | SP - Won't keep up this pace, but always seems to have a K/BB over 2. He is struggling mightily with that this year, and he'd need to K more guys to be productive. His GB Percentage is always good (although highly inflated so far this year), and Penny could be good back end guy for a lot of fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Could be valuable in deep leagues, especially if he gets his GB Percentage back up to its 2005 and 2006 level. He won't get a ton of Ks, but he seems to have good control and a good offense to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP - The favorite for saves at the beginning of the calendar year, Tankersley is just off the DL. Owens is the closer for now, but Tankersley has the stuff to take over if he falters.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jorge Julio | FLA | RP - Owens hasn't posted great peripherals yet this year and has yet to strikeout a batter. It is still possible that Julio closes some games this year if he can get back on track.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Lidge | HOU | RP - Similar situation to Julio. I don't expect Wheeler to falter, but if Lidge regains his dominance, which he certainly could (his peripherals aren't bad), he may take the job back by default.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings didn't have great numbers in the minors last year and doesn't have great ones in the majors either. Expect his Ks to go down and his ERA to go up.
Recommendation: Avoid in all leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Without a starting gig, Hamilton is not worth even a bench spot in mixed leagues. If Freel or Griffey or someone gets hurt, he might be worth something. For now avoid him unless you're in a deep AL-only league.
Recommendation: Avoid in mixed leagues. Should be watched in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

James Loney | LAD | 1B - One of my favorite minor leaguers. Will have some value if promoted and given ABs.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

UPDATE:
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum has now been made a starting pitcher. Dominant in 2 minor league starts thus far, could be up with the big club some time this year. If his numbers translate fairly well, Lincecum could be good pitcher for fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

Mailbag: Atkins/Hall/Jacobs for Thome/Wagner?

Here's another question from our Fantasy Baseball Mailbag from an anonymous reader.

Our reader writes:

"Hey Derek, great blog.

If you have a moment, I wanted to know what you thought about this trade.

12 team, 5x5 head to head league (default settings).

My team:

C: Lo Duca, Barrett
1B: A. Gonazalez, M. Jacobs
2B: I. Kinsler
3B: D. Wright, G. Atkins, B. Hall
SS: B. Hall
OF: C. Crawford, B. Abreu, R. Ibanez
SP: G. Maddux, J. Smoltz, C. Schilling, A. Wainright, D. Bush, K. Escobar, F. Garcia, C.C. Sabathia
RP: T. Saito, J. Soria

Here's the offer:

I give: B. Hall, G. Atkins and M. Jacobs

I Receive: J. Thome, B. Wagner

Pros:
1) I need closer help desperately, and there is no one, aside from Julio available, and Wagner is among the best.
2) With D. Wright at 3B, G. Atkins is expendable.
3) I just picked up Jacobs, and who knows if he'll keep up his current pace.
4) If Thome remains healthy, he should be a nice HR / RBI boost from the Util. slot.

Cons:
1) Thome is injury prone.
2) I'll be leaving my non-pitching roster a bit thin - picking up the likes of Khalil Greene (or R. Aurilia) at SS, and relying on A. Gonzalez at 1B.
3) I feel like this trade will force me into needing to trade away some pitching to balance out my roster.

What do you think?

Thanks."

I responded:

"Z,
I would most likely not pursue this trade. I believe Garrett Atkins will be a first round pick next year and quite possibly the first third baseman taken. I actually believe he could be a better hitter than A-Rod. I like him much more than David Wright, despite being a Mets fan and a huge David Wright fan. If you are going to trade a third Baseman, I would trade Wright. I think he is the inferior player and has more value. Try trading Wright for a guy like David Ortiz or Lance Berkman if you don't trust your 1B, or a guy like Manny Ramirez if you need an OF (Ibanez is only so-so).

I like Mike Jacobs. He is a good bet to approach 30 HRs this year and is a pretty good contact hitter with pretty good discipline. You could do a lot worse than him.

I also would not suggest trading for a closer. I've written a lot about closers over the past month, and if you read this post about my strategy concerning closers, I think you'll see that they are highly overvalued. While Wagner is a better pitcher than Soria or Saito, how many more saves do you expect him to get you? The Dodgers created 61 save opportunites last year while the Mets created 61. Wagner will probably get a few more saves than Saito, but this is not worth the price he would cost you. Working the waiver wire for cheaps saves is a much better alternative. Henry Owens should pick up a few for the Marlins over the next few weeks. Try picking him up.

Last, if you're looking for a high HR/RBI utility man, Frank Thomas is your guy. I wrote about him a few weeks ago. He's a great player who is severely undervalued.

One last bit of advice: trade Freddy Garcia for a better pitcher. Check out my rankings for some good targets.

I hope this helps! Good luck this season!"

Let your thoughts on this trade be known!

Joakim Soria to Close for Royals

Joakim Soria is expected to take the place of David Riske as Kansas City's temporary closer. Octavio Dotel should be back within a few weeks, but until then Soria could provide some value in most leagues. If you're in need of a closer, try Soria. I like Owens better, but Soria is well worth a roster spot for those of you desperate for some cheap saves.

Julio Out As Marlins Closer... And Some Closer Ramblings

I mentioned it a few days ago a little early, but it is now official. Jorge Julio is no longer the closer for the Florida Marlins. A replacement has not been announced, but one would think Henry Owens will be the one to get the call. He earned the save earlier in the week when Julio had pitched two consecutive nights and couldn't go a third. Taylor Tankerlsey is coming back from the DL and could take the job later on; I don't expect him to get it immediately. Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, and Lee Gardner are also in the mix. I have picked Owens up in the league I've mentioned on here before. I dropped Akinori Otsuka with Eric Gagne coming back tomorrow and set to take the closer's role immediately.

I'm very disappointed with Otsuka, who earned me (and anyone else who picked him up) just one save over the past two weeks. This wasn't his fault, obviously, but I was hoping for more. I'm hoping now that the team of Henry Owens and Salomon Torres (in addition to Octavio Dotel when he returns) can increase my standing in the Saves category... at least until another good reliever takes over a closer job.

That's the beauty of my strategy. Even though Otsuka didn't work out, he was a low risk player who cost me nothing. Owens and Torres are exactly the same. Eventually things will even out and I will be able to get 6 or 7 points for Saves (in my 10-team league), as opposed to the 2 I have now. I don't expect to finish the year with Owens or Torres on my team, but I'll take what I can get from them now and then take what I can get from other guys later. Add it all up and I - and hopefully you - will have amassed a good number of saves come September.

False Alert: Henry Owens

False Alert. Owens is not the closer. Julio just got the night off. Sorry about that. If Julio continues to struggle though expect Owens to take over.

Henry Owens Picks Up the Save Tonight

Missed out on Wheeler? Here's another chance at a decent closer. Henry Owens picked up the save in a close game tonight for the Marlins. He was filthy in the minors last year, and could be great this year. He hasn't struck a batter out yet this year, but he struck out a ton last year. Pick him up and see how he does over the next week or so. Taylor Tankersley will be coming back, so he could take the job at some point. Matt Lindstrom and Kevin Gregg are also in the mix, as is Jorge Julio.

Jorge Julio to Marlins

The Marlins acquired Jorge Julio for SP Yusmeiro Petit, whom them acquired last off-season from the Mets in the Carlos Delgado deal. It is assumed that Julio will close for the Marlins, who hadn't yet named a closer.

I don't see this as a necessary move as Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens could have been a serviceable closer for the Fish. With the move though, Julio puts himself into a very good fantasy spot. He has now been added to the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings. He has a Fantasy Score of 8.71 and is ranked #20. We expect a K/9 around 9.00, a BB/9 around 4.3, and a GB Percentage around 40%.

If you are in need of a closer and Julio is still on your waiver wire when you read this, I suggest you grab him. With a pretty good offense and decent pitching, Julio should pick up a good number of saves. He's also got some talent, contrary to the beliefs of many casual observers. Let's just hope that new Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't one of these people.

If Julio does lose his job, Taylor Tankersley, Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens would most likely take over and be just as valuable - if not more so - than Julio.