Capitalizing on 'Risky' Players

A few days ago I pointed you to an article over at the Hardball Times that dealt with risk as a market inefficiency. The article mostly dealt with this concept for Major League Baseball, but the principle is very relevant to Fantasy Baseball as well.

A player who is considered an 'injury risk' is naturally less valuable than a player who might put up the same numbers but with more consistent playing time. Suppose two players hit .300 with 10 ABs per HR. One is an iron man who plays 162 games per year and the other is lucky to play in 100. Obviously the 162-game guy is going to be more valuable in trades and will be taken earlier on draft day. However, it might actually be a better move to draft the 100 game guy several rounds later.

For example, Barry Bonds is a fantastic player, but for a plethora of reasons could have been had in Round 15 in many 12-team expert league drafts. He is considered a risky player. He is 42 years old. He hasn't played more than 130 games in three years. He has had some trouble with injuries. He doesn't play in day games after night games. He has been the center of this whole steroid scandal. Instinctively, most people didn't want to draft Bonds too early. Good news for us opportunists. You easily could have drafted Barry Bonds in Round 14 and Moises Alou in Round 23 and now have your LF spot filled with a fantastic player and will get near 162 games out of the position. Play Bonds whenever he is in the Giants lineup and play Alou on the day games after night games and if Bonds is to get hurt this year.

By targeting good players who are undervalued due to injury concerns (or certain other reasons) and targeting a player in a later round as insurance/as a platoon-mate who is also undervalued, you can find yourself a very capable full-time player for a much lower price.

Another good example of this concept is Troy Glaus, especially in leagues where he is SS eligible. Glaus could have been had in Round 8 in many expert leagues. Ryan Theriot went undrafted in most leagues. While Glaus hasn't had a major injury in two years, there is still a stigma attached to him. For practical purposes, lets say that we only expect 130 games out of him this year. Lets say the remaining 32 will be filled by Theriot when Glaus is on the DL. Below is a rough estimate of their stat lines.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Glaus	130	450	113	30	87	85	1	0.251
Theriot	32	110	33	2	12	25	9	0.300
Combined	162	560	146	32	99	110	10	0.261

Now let's look at a possible stat line for Miguel Tejada, who was drafted in Round 3 in a lot of expert drafts.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Tejada	162	650	200	26	100	100	5	0.308

The only category Tejada is significantly better in is Batting Average. Of course these are rough numbers and this exact scenario might not have worked because Theriot wasn't expected to play full-time during the preseason, but I think you understand that this concept has its place in Fantasy Baseball Strategy.

A reader mentioned the other day that this theory has its limitations, which it absolutely does. That reader said that it is not always necessary to take on risk. In less competitive leagues, risk might not be needed in order to win. But in competitive leagues, taking on a risk like Troy Glaus or Barry Bonds might be a sound strategy.

There are also some risky players that should not be taken. An example of the type of player that wouldn't work well with this platoon approach is Ryan Freel. Freel is a player that I like a lot and drafted for several of my teams because I expected him to start every day. That thought went out the window with the emergence of Josh Hamilton.

Here is why it might be difficult to begin to use the approach mentioned above with Freel. His days off seem to come at random intervals. Unless you are willing to check the lineup cards as they become available, minutes before games are set to begin - which you definitely could do if you are dedicated to winning your league - it would be difficult to decide which games to bench Freel and which to play his platoon-mate. This actually becomes impossible if the player in question is on a West coast team whose games don't start until after his platoon-mate's games have ended.

Anyway, I think I've talked enough about this for now. Tomorrow I'll talk a little more and go over a few guys who might be good targets for the remainder of the year to employ this strategy with.

Waiver Wire: National League

Here's the National League addition of the Waiver Wire for this week.

National League

Brett Myers | PHI | RP - If his disgusted owner dropped him, pick him up. He won't stick as a middleman for long; he'll rejoin the rotation or take the closer's job. Charlie Manuel - who could be fired soon - said Myers will be put into some save situations in the coming weeks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I try to keep prospects not yet called up off of the Waiver Wire, but Lincecum continues to dominate the minor leagues. He should be pitching in AT&T Park (it feels strange not calling it Pac Bell) by the end of May. Watch for this guy.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14 team leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Ryan Theriot | CHI | 2B - Theriot is a good player that the Cubs seem to like a lot. He has been batting in the first and second spot recently, so he shouldn't have any trouble scoring a bunch of Runs. His BB% is low, but it was good in the minors and majors last year. 86% Contact and 23% Line Drive Rates are very good. Has got some speed and could swipe 30 bases. Doesn't have power.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Felix Pie | CHI | OF - Will probably be sent down soon and called back up when the Cubs traded Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, or Matt Murton. The 3 of the sharing time in RF doesn't work. Even if Pie were to stick, he still doesn't come highly recommended from me. He's got good speed (30 SBs?) and decent power (10-15 HRs tops), but can't hit for much average and doesn't take a lot of walks. Could score some runs hitting at the top of the lineup. Decent player but overhyped.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Another good week for Hamilton, who is finding ABs despite not having a starting gig. If he cools off he may not get these ABs, but the Reds have plenty of injury concerns to think Hamilton could find 400 ABs if he keeps producing. Low contact rate but has a high LD rate and an incredible BB rate. Hit Tracker's data seems to be incomplete at the moment, but Hamilton hasn't hit any of his HRs a mile. Keep expectations modest.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Still owned in just 39% of ESPN leagues, Johnson has been playing well. Discussed last week as well, Johnson should be owned in far more leagues than he is.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Another guy discussed last week, Quentin is still owned in just 6% of ESPN leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Yet another guy discussed last week, Encarnacion is owned in 9% of ESPN mixed leagues. Bench him until he starts to hit.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues.

Tom Gorzelanny | PIT | SP - Good K/BB and good GB rate, but just less than 6 K/9 makes him a lesser option in shallower leagues. Being aided by a low BABIP and HR/9, but if he keeps up these peripherals he should still be a solid pitcher.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest of NL-only leagues.

Claudio Vargas | MIL | SP - Wow. Nearly 13 K/9 and less than 2 BB/9. Not a great FB rate, but with those peripherals Vargas has been pitching amazingly. Won't keep it up, but it can't hurt to ride it out until he does. He should settle in as a decent pitcher. 7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 seems about right. That's what his recommendation is based on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest of NL-only leagues.

Edgar Gonzalez | ARZ | SP - Seems to have great control based on his numbers in the minors and majors last year and the majors this year. K/9 may be slightly inflated, but a 6.5 K/9 and 2 BB/9 along with a 45% GB rate is useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be highly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Kip Wells | STL | SP - Getting lucky so far, but 7 K/9 and 3 BB/9 with a 50% GB rate is decent. The Cards offense doesn't hurt either.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be highly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Orlando Hernandez | NYM | SP - Lower than normal K/9 and higher than normal BB/9. Unless he gets that back up he's no more than a bottom-of-the-barrel fantasy option.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 10 and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be watched in 8, considered in 10, and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.