Risk and Pitchers

I've talked about Risk as a something to be exploited in Fantasy Baseball over the past couple of days, but I never talked about how it relates to pitching. This is something I will go over now.

The strategy with hitters is to take one who is an injury risk and play him whenever he is healthy. You also take a supplemental player who will play whenever the primary player gets hurt or doesn't play.

I don't think this strategy can be applied to pitchers, and here is why. When you take a position player who is an injury risk and he ends up getting hurt, you play the supplemental player every day the primary player is not in the lineup. Normally, this supplemental player is not worthy of starting every day for your team, but is useful - as his name suggests - as a supplemental player who is used occasionally. Doing this properly maximizes the value of both of the players.

With pitchers, there is a very small amount of pitchers that should only be used sometimes. Normally, a pitcher should be used either every single game or not at all. As a result, supplemental pitchers shouldn't really exist. If a pitcher is good enough to be on your roster, he should be good enough to use. Otherwise, you're really just wasting a roster spot and you will have a hard time getting to your league's maximum innings pitched mark.

That's why on a lot of my teams I took a couple of underrated aces (Peavy, Felix, Schilling, Kazmir, Hamels, Myers etc.) and loaded up the back end of my rotation with more underrated guys like A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Dave Bush, Kelvim Escobar, Scott Olsen, Jamie Shields, and Oliver Perez. Olsen has turned out to be a bust, and I subsequently dropped him in the leagues I owned him. I had no idea his K rate would drop, his BB rate would rise, and his GB rate would drop. I didn't see any signs of this coming, and I doubt anyone else did either. As long as you can get most of your picks right, you can afford to miss out on a couple. Especially when you can pick up guys like Philip Hughes and Tim Lincecum off the Waiver Wire.

The point with Olsen is that if a pitcher is not worth using, he is wasting a valuable roster spot and isn't worth owning. As such, you can't really have a supplemental pitcher. The best strategy, I think, with pitchers is to grab one or two aces and load up on good values for the rest of the draft. All of these pitchers should be used every single game (with a few rare circumstances), and if one gets hurt you can either go without them, make a trade, or very carefully scan the Waiver Wire for a guy who might deserve a roster spot. But to hang onto one of these guys as a reserve in case one of your good pitchers gets hurt isn't a smart idea. It's a waste of resources.

More On Risk

Yesterday I talked about exploiting Risk for the betterment of your Fantasy Baseball Team. Today I'll go over some guys who might make good targets to acquire cheaply and apply this strategy with.

One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.

Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.

Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.

Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.

Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.


Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire


Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.


Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire


Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.


Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.

Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.

I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.

Capitalizing on 'Risky' Players

A few days ago I pointed you to an article over at the Hardball Times that dealt with risk as a market inefficiency. The article mostly dealt with this concept for Major League Baseball, but the principle is very relevant to Fantasy Baseball as well.

A player who is considered an 'injury risk' is naturally less valuable than a player who might put up the same numbers but with more consistent playing time. Suppose two players hit .300 with 10 ABs per HR. One is an iron man who plays 162 games per year and the other is lucky to play in 100. Obviously the 162-game guy is going to be more valuable in trades and will be taken earlier on draft day. However, it might actually be a better move to draft the 100 game guy several rounds later.

For example, Barry Bonds is a fantastic player, but for a plethora of reasons could have been had in Round 15 in many 12-team expert league drafts. He is considered a risky player. He is 42 years old. He hasn't played more than 130 games in three years. He has had some trouble with injuries. He doesn't play in day games after night games. He has been the center of this whole steroid scandal. Instinctively, most people didn't want to draft Bonds too early. Good news for us opportunists. You easily could have drafted Barry Bonds in Round 14 and Moises Alou in Round 23 and now have your LF spot filled with a fantastic player and will get near 162 games out of the position. Play Bonds whenever he is in the Giants lineup and play Alou on the day games after night games and if Bonds is to get hurt this year.

By targeting good players who are undervalued due to injury concerns (or certain other reasons) and targeting a player in a later round as insurance/as a platoon-mate who is also undervalued, you can find yourself a very capable full-time player for a much lower price.

Another good example of this concept is Troy Glaus, especially in leagues where he is SS eligible. Glaus could have been had in Round 8 in many expert leagues. Ryan Theriot went undrafted in most leagues. While Glaus hasn't had a major injury in two years, there is still a stigma attached to him. For practical purposes, lets say that we only expect 130 games out of him this year. Lets say the remaining 32 will be filled by Theriot when Glaus is on the DL. Below is a rough estimate of their stat lines.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Glaus	130	450	113	30	87	85	1	0.251
Theriot	32	110	33	2	12	25	9	0.300
Combined	162	560	146	32	99	110	10	0.261

Now let's look at a possible stat line for Miguel Tejada, who was drafted in Round 3 in a lot of expert drafts.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Tejada	162	650	200	26	100	100	5	0.308

The only category Tejada is significantly better in is Batting Average. Of course these are rough numbers and this exact scenario might not have worked because Theriot wasn't expected to play full-time during the preseason, but I think you understand that this concept has its place in Fantasy Baseball Strategy.

A reader mentioned the other day that this theory has its limitations, which it absolutely does. That reader said that it is not always necessary to take on risk. In less competitive leagues, risk might not be needed in order to win. But in competitive leagues, taking on a risk like Troy Glaus or Barry Bonds might be a sound strategy.

There are also some risky players that should not be taken. An example of the type of player that wouldn't work well with this platoon approach is Ryan Freel. Freel is a player that I like a lot and drafted for several of my teams because I expected him to start every day. That thought went out the window with the emergence of Josh Hamilton.

Here is why it might be difficult to begin to use the approach mentioned above with Freel. His days off seem to come at random intervals. Unless you are willing to check the lineup cards as they become available, minutes before games are set to begin - which you definitely could do if you are dedicated to winning your league - it would be difficult to decide which games to bench Freel and which to play his platoon-mate. This actually becomes impossible if the player in question is on a West coast team whose games don't start until after his platoon-mate's games have ended.

Anyway, I think I've talked enough about this for now. Tomorrow I'll talk a little more and go over a few guys who might be good targets for the remainder of the year to employ this strategy with.