Mailbag: Barry Bonds

Here's a Fantasy Baseball Mailbag question that just came in. I haven't talked too much about Barry Bonds yet this year, but I absolutely love him, especially when combined with a good OF to play on his off days.

Steve writes:

"Hey there,

Ive been reading your blog for a couple weeks now and I think you do a very good job & I respect your opinion. That being said, I am looking for some advice. I am semi-new to fantasy baseball, second season, and am starting to spend some serious time on my team. I drafted Barry Bonds very late in the draft and am thus far very impressed with what he has done for me but I fear that after he breaks the record he is going to fall off. I was looking at trading him but found that all of my friends in my league have personal problems with Mr. Bonds and don't want him on their team no matter what kind of numbers he puts up. What would you do in this situation?"

I responded:
"Hey Steve,
I also drafted Barry Bonds late all of my drafts and have been reaping the rewards. In your situation, I would simply sit tight with Bonds. While he certainly wants the record, I doubt he will stop putting up numbers once he gets it. The Giants are only three back in the NL West, and I bet he also wants to win a World Series. He is still 11 HRs away from breaking the record, and even if he quits baseball the day after he hits #756 you'd still get 22 HRs out of him for the year. Not bad for a late round pick.

I fully expect him to continue hitting for Contact and Power, though. His HRs have been rockets, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 35 or 40 this year. Hang onto Bonds (I will be in my leagues), and make a note of each player in your league that won't touch Bonds because of the issues surrounding him. In future drafts, target similar players once more information comes out in later rounds. You have to leave emotions and personal feelings out of Fantasy Baseball in order to be successful. Take advantage of this."


I know that there are mixed feelings about Barry Bonds, but regardless of his issues, the fact is he can produce for your Fantasy Baseball Team. In order to win, this is all that can matter. When you let personal feelings or team allegiances or anything like that get in the way, it becomes much more difficult to win a competitive Fantasy Baseball League.

Capitalizing on 'Risky' Players

A few days ago I pointed you to an article over at the Hardball Times that dealt with risk as a market inefficiency. The article mostly dealt with this concept for Major League Baseball, but the principle is very relevant to Fantasy Baseball as well.

A player who is considered an 'injury risk' is naturally less valuable than a player who might put up the same numbers but with more consistent playing time. Suppose two players hit .300 with 10 ABs per HR. One is an iron man who plays 162 games per year and the other is lucky to play in 100. Obviously the 162-game guy is going to be more valuable in trades and will be taken earlier on draft day. However, it might actually be a better move to draft the 100 game guy several rounds later.

For example, Barry Bonds is a fantastic player, but for a plethora of reasons could have been had in Round 15 in many 12-team expert league drafts. He is considered a risky player. He is 42 years old. He hasn't played more than 130 games in three years. He has had some trouble with injuries. He doesn't play in day games after night games. He has been the center of this whole steroid scandal. Instinctively, most people didn't want to draft Bonds too early. Good news for us opportunists. You easily could have drafted Barry Bonds in Round 14 and Moises Alou in Round 23 and now have your LF spot filled with a fantastic player and will get near 162 games out of the position. Play Bonds whenever he is in the Giants lineup and play Alou on the day games after night games and if Bonds is to get hurt this year.

By targeting good players who are undervalued due to injury concerns (or certain other reasons) and targeting a player in a later round as insurance/as a platoon-mate who is also undervalued, you can find yourself a very capable full-time player for a much lower price.

Another good example of this concept is Troy Glaus, especially in leagues where he is SS eligible. Glaus could have been had in Round 8 in many expert leagues. Ryan Theriot went undrafted in most leagues. While Glaus hasn't had a major injury in two years, there is still a stigma attached to him. For practical purposes, lets say that we only expect 130 games out of him this year. Lets say the remaining 32 will be filled by Theriot when Glaus is on the DL. Below is a rough estimate of their stat lines.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Glaus	130	450	113	30	87	85	1	0.251
Theriot	32	110	33	2	12	25	9	0.300
Combined	162	560	146	32	99	110	10	0.261

Now let's look at a possible stat line for Miguel Tejada, who was drafted in Round 3 in a lot of expert drafts.

	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG
Tejada	162	650	200	26	100	100	5	0.308

The only category Tejada is significantly better in is Batting Average. Of course these are rough numbers and this exact scenario might not have worked because Theriot wasn't expected to play full-time during the preseason, but I think you understand that this concept has its place in Fantasy Baseball Strategy.

A reader mentioned the other day that this theory has its limitations, which it absolutely does. That reader said that it is not always necessary to take on risk. In less competitive leagues, risk might not be needed in order to win. But in competitive leagues, taking on a risk like Troy Glaus or Barry Bonds might be a sound strategy.

There are also some risky players that should not be taken. An example of the type of player that wouldn't work well with this platoon approach is Ryan Freel. Freel is a player that I like a lot and drafted for several of my teams because I expected him to start every day. That thought went out the window with the emergence of Josh Hamilton.

Here is why it might be difficult to begin to use the approach mentioned above with Freel. His days off seem to come at random intervals. Unless you are willing to check the lineup cards as they become available, minutes before games are set to begin - which you definitely could do if you are dedicated to winning your league - it would be difficult to decide which games to bench Freel and which to play his platoon-mate. This actually becomes impossible if the player in question is on a West coast team whose games don't start until after his platoon-mate's games have ended.

Anyway, I think I've talked enough about this for now. Tomorrow I'll talk a little more and go over a few guys who might be good targets for the remainder of the year to employ this strategy with.

Projected Batting Averages and On-Base Percentages

UPDATE: Since we have changed our formulas for predicting Batting Average and On-Base Percentage, we've taken off these rankings.

Rate My Team

Hey guys. I figured I'd give you something to look at having not posted much in the last 36 hours. This is one of my teams this year. This league is a 5x5, Roto Style, 10-team league.

C - Mike Piazza
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Ray Durham
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
SS - Bill Hall
CI - Jason Giambi
MI - Ryan Freel
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Kenny Lofton
RF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Barry Bonds
OF - Adam Dunn
UT - Frank Thomas
BN - Adam LaRoche
BN - Pat Burrell
BN - Chris Duncan

SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Felix Hernandez
RP - Octavio Dotel
RP - Akinori Otsuka
P - Curt Schilling
P - Brett Myers
P - Javier Vazquez
BN - Scott Olsen
BN - Mike Pelfrey


Alright, let me know what you think of my team. I am currently trying to get a base stealer after missing out on Carlos Beltran early. A Juan Pierre type I think would fit nicely with this team, especially considering Kenny Lofton is my current CF. Anyway, my draft was conducted before my I finished my hitter rankings (which I believe I made some great strides on today), so my offense may or may not fit with my rankings exactly. All of these guys I believe are good baseball players. Let's hope that my rankings find they are good fantasy players too!