Mets Starting Pitching Analysis - April

In the preseason I was asked by Ed over at Mets Fever to sabermetrically analyze my favorite team, the New York Mets. I was also asked to provide analysis on how the team is doing throughout the year. Today I posted about Starting Pitchers over there, so if you'd like to check it out go right ahead. I will also post the article here for you.

Starting Pitchers

Tom Glavine – Glavine achieves his success through a low Walk rate and a high Groundball rate. His K/9 of 5.03 is what we expected, as is his 2.61 BB/9. His 45.6% GB rate is also where it should be. Glavine is solid like this. He is being aided by a low (.243 – league average is .290) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), meaning that he is not allowing as many hits as he should be. Since pitchers cannot control what happens to a ball once it is put into play, pitchers that have an usually high or low number of hits (due to luck and/or defense) tend to either progress or regress accordingly. Glavine is in for a little bit of a regression. Expect typical Tom Glavine the rest of the way.

Oliver Perez – Perez is putting up peripheral numbers very similar to his 2004 ones. A 9.89 K/9 is fantastic, and a 3.21 BB/9 is the lowest of his career. If he can keep this up, Perez will be a fantastic pitcher for the Mets. I have no scientific proof, but I’d have to think this has something to do with Rick Peterson. Great job Rick. Perez’s BABIP (.318) is a little high, so he might even do better if he can maintain his peripherals and stop receiving this little bit of bad luck.

John Maine – I hate to say it, but Maine has probably been the luckiest pitcher in the National League so far this year. His 8.14 K/9 is a very nice surprise, but his 4.76 BB/9 is much to high to sustain his surface numbers (ERA, WHIP, etc.). His GB Percentage is also at a career low of 35.4%, which is simply terrible. With that many flyballs allowed, you’d expect Maine to give up a lot of HRs, which he is not doing. His 0.60 HR/9 should rise well above 1.00 by the end of the year. His .230 BABIP is also a source of his luck. If Maine can lower his BB rate, he should be solid. Otherwise it might be a turbulent year for him.

Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey put up great peripheral numbers in the minors last year, but hasn’t done so in the majors this year. He is walking more batters than he strikes out, and his GB Percentage (44.8%) isn’t as good as it was in the minors last year. His BABIP and HR/9 are close to where they should be, so unless Pelfrey can make some changes what you see is what you get. I fully expect him to be a solid #1 or #2 one day, but he is not there yet.

Orlando Hernandez – Before going down, Hernandez was also getting pretty lucky. His .207 BABIP isn’t sustainable, although his 1.41 HR/9 should improve. His K/9 wasn’t as high as it was last year, and he will need to increase it upon his return to be successful. His BB/9 is typical El Duque (3.66), and I don’t see much of an improvement coming there. His 39% GB rate leaves him susceptible to the longball, but not as bad as he has been hit with it so far.

Jorge Sosa – Looks like a fluke in his two starts so far. I disliked him preseason, and his low K rate, high BB rate, and low GB rate hasn’t changed my mind. A .168 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck has gone into his 2.77 ERA.

Mailbag: Pick Up Hermanson?

Here's another Mailbag question from someone who wishes to remain anonymous. Make your opinion on this known by commenting!

This person writes:
"Derek,

I just discovered your site; really impressive work. If this year's f-ball blogs were second basemen, yours would be Chase Utley.

First a tip -- Dustin Hermanson has been quietly added to the Yahoo! player list and I believe is clearing waivers in most leagues tonight.

Now my question. Who will most likely close in Cincy this year?

In a deep 14-team mixed 5x5 keeper, my droppable pitchers are Dave Weathers, John Maine, and Josh Johnson. My hope with Johnson was that the Marlins would place him on the DL sooner so that I could stash him, but they are taking their time about it. Should I drop one of these guys to put a waiver move on Hermanson?"

I responded:
"James,

Great to hear you enjoy my blog. This is a good question. Bill Bray will be on the DL, so he is completely out of the running for now. This leaves Todd Coffey, Mike Stanton, David Weathers, and Dustin Hermanson as the options. Coffey I sincerely doubt will close, even though he is just as capable as the other guys. Early on the talk was that Stanton and Weathers would share the duty. Then Weathers became more of the frontrunner to take the brunt of the work. Then Hermanson was signed, and there were whispered that if he impressed in Spring Training he could quickly slide into the closer role. Since then there have been more whispers that he will soon be named the closer. There has not been an official announcement yet, but if the season opened today I would think Hermanson is the most likely to close. Whoever gets the job in Cincy will be on a very short leash, but in a 14-team league these guys are still worth roster spots.

That being said, you seem to have a slight dilemma. Dave Weathers seems the most obvious guy to drop, but he could just as easily be closing on Sunday, so it could backfire on you. Let's take a look at Maine and Johnson. Health issues aside, I think Johnson is the slightly better pitcher in that he has more room to improve. Both have K rates a little over 7 and BB rates in the mid-to-high 3s. Johnson though has the higher GB Rate, 45% to 37%. Assuming Johnson and Maine won't be your keepers, I think this leaves either Weathers or Johnson to be dropped. While Johnson is slightly better, he will provide much less value than Maine because he will not pitch as many innings as Maine will, provided Maine stays healthy.

So, Weathers or Johnson? Or neither? This depends a little on how many guys like Akinori Otsuka or Mike Gonzalez or Joel Zumaya are on waivers. In a 14-team league, chances are these guys are gone. If they are, then I think you need to get Hermanson. If a lot of these types of guys (guys who have a shaky closer ahead of them) are available, I don't see it necessary to rush to get Hermanson as there will be better, safer options popping up throughout the year.

It also depends on your Starting Pitching. Can you afford to lose Johnson and not get him back? How good is the rest of your staff? If a guy like Jamie Shields or Philip Hughes or Oliver Perez is still on waivers, I think you can afford to lose Johnson. But then we think about the debate over SPs vs. RPs. It is much worse to lose a decent SP than it is to miss out on a so-so RP. Will Johnson be picked up right away if dropped? Would you be able to get him back again to stash on the DL once Yahoo! makes him DL eligible?

This is a very tough decision, but I would probably lean towards dropping Weathers and grabbing Hermanson, then cross your fingers for him to close. He is a better option than Weathers; let’s just hope the Reds realize this. This is the safest move to make; you won't lose your SPs and you will have the closer most likely to get save opps early on in Hermanson. If Weathers is named the closer, you may even be able to scoop him back up on Sunday.

I hope this advice helps, and I hope I am steering you in the right direction, but the Reds have been so hush-hush on this it's difficult to tell."

New York Mets Starting Pitchers

Our New York Mets analysis kicks off with the Starting Pitchers.

Pedro Martinez - Not a draftable fantasy option
Will become a fantasy option once he comes back - and one of the better ones at that. He would get a Fantasy Score of 10.16 if he were playing the entire season, so if you can pick him up late in the year he could help a late surge for your team. He is just not worth wasting a roster spot on for only a month or two of stats. Great K/9 in the low 9s matched with a great BB/9 in the mid 2s makes for a dominant pitcher. His GB Percentage has dropped every year since 2002, falling to 36.3% in 2006. If he could get that back up around 40% and maintain his great K/BB ratio, he would be every bit as good as Johan Santana. I'm sure every Mets fan is hoping Pedro is able to come back at full strength in time for a playoff push.

Tom Glavine - Fantasy Score: 6.76
His lack of Ks - around 5 K/9 - leaves him off the fantasy radar. As a pitcher though, he is still fairly effective. His control is still there: high 2s BB/9, although we expect his K/BB to fall under 2 this year. His groundball percentage has been dropping since 2004 - 44.3% last year, but if he can get it back up to 47%, which it seems likely he will, he can still be a fairly reliable option. If the Mets are counting on him as their ace it could be trouble, especially if his K/9 falls below 5 and GB Percentage doesn't return.

El Duque - Fantasy Score: 7.98
El Duque is a fantasy option in deeper leagues, ranking in at #42, mostly because of his high K rate. His K/9 has been inconsistent - a rare thing for pitchers - but if Hernandez can keep it up in the 8 or 9 range he could be the Mets best pitcher this year. His BB/9 is a little high - hovering in the mid 3s - but an 8 or 9 K/9 makes up for it with a K/BB in the mid 2s. His GB Percentage is very low, 33% in 2006. It was 39% in 2005, which is still not very good, but if he can get it closer to there in addition to keeping his K/9 high he should be the Mets best pitcher.

John Maine - Fantasy Score: 7.20
A decent fantasy option in very deep leagues if he can keep his K/9 at his 2006 rate of 7.10. High K/9 rates in the minors show that Maine's K rate might be legitimate. He had a 3.30 BB/9 in 2006, making a respectable 2.15 K/BB rate. As long as he can keep his K/BB above 2 he should be a pretty good Major League Pitcher. His groundball percentage last year (37.5) isn't what you want it to be, but it was over 40% in limited innings in 2005. If he can get it up to 40% next year and keep his K/BB steady he should be the Mets second best pitcher - at least until Pedro Martinez returns.

Oliver Perez - Fantasy Score: 8.31
The best fantasy options of this quartet of Mets pitcher, directly as a result of his excellent K/9. 8.15 in 2006, 8.48 in 2005, and 10.97 in 2004, Perez has shown to be a legitimate strikeout pitcher. His control is a problem though, allowing 5.43 BB/9 in 2006 and 6.12 BB/9 in 2005. If he could ever get it back to the 3.72 of 2004, he could be a poor man's Johan Santana. I say this because Santana also relies on high Ks and low BBs to make up for his sub-par GB Percentage, although Oliver is even worse in this regard. His 30.1% in 2006 and 32.1% in 2005 is down right atrocious, making the possibility of him ever becoming more than an above average pitcher almost null. Even in his excellent 2004 it was only 35.3%. His ridiculous K/9 that year still made him one of the top 5-7 SPs, but unless it gets back up there and he gains better control, what you see is what you get with Oliver Perez - an average pitcher.

Now to analyze the options for the 5th Starter Spot.

Mike Pelfrey
If he continues to develop on this track he could be one of the best pitchers in the game. Pitching mostly at AA Binghampton last year, he struck out 10.45 batter per 9. He walked 3.53, so that may need to come down a tad. But his 49.4% groundball rate is what gets me excited. Combining high Ks with high GBs makes for an excellent pitcher. It's difficult to tell if he's ready yet, but I'd love to see him in Queens by mid-season. Could be a good fantasy option if he plays in New York this year.

Philip Humber
Similar to Pelfrey in that they both possess the necessary skills. He had a better K/BB than Pelfrey last year, striking out 9.42 per 9 and walking just 2.41, splitting his time between A+ St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. His GB Percentage is worse than Pelfrey's with a 41.3% rating in AA and 52% in single A ball. This still makes for an above-average groundball rating to go with great K and BB numbers. Again, may not be ready for the bigs, but he could be a legitimate pitcher one day. Could be a good fantasy option if he plays in New York this year.

Chan Ho Park - Fantasy Score: 6.38
Because his innings have been somewhat limited the past few years his numbers have fluctuated somewhat. His K/9 should be a little over 6.0, which is respectable. His BB/9 have done the same, but somewhere in the mid-to-high 3s seems reasonable for him this year. That would put his K/BB under 2.0, but an above average GB Percentage makes up for that a little. A rate somewhere around 45% is probably what we'll see out of Park, making him the Mets best option for the 5th spot (assuming Pelfrey and Humber aren't ready yet).

Jorge Sosa
Splitting time between starting and relieving, Sosa compiled a K/9 of 5.71 and 5.72 in 2006 and 2005. He had a 8.52 K/9 in 2004 working mostly in relief, but that seems like an anomaly as it was the only time in his career it went over 6. He compounds his not-so-good K/9 with a not-so-good BB/9. 4.30 in 2005, he improved in 2006 to 3.05. If he can keep it that low he would be better off, but his terrible GB Percentage (consistently around 35%) makes him little more than a bottom of the barrel pitching option for any team.

Aaron Sele
Possibly a worse option than Jorge Sosa, his K/9 is terrible. He hasn't gone above 5 since 2000. His BB/9 isn't great, but isn't terrible either. He had a good 2.61 BB/9 last year, and is usually fairly good with his control. A BB/9 in the low-to-mid 3s is to be expected for Sele if he pitches in the majors this year. With a GB Percentage between 38 and 43 between 2002 and 2005, Sele bumped that up to nearly 46% in 2006. Expect that to be closer to 41% this year.

Jason Vargas
Pretty good strikeout numbers in the minors indicate his 7.21 K/9 in 73.2 IP in 2005 could be for real, although his more modest 5.23 2006 K/9 is also possible. It will probable land somewhere between the two. His BB/9 is poor in his limited major league experience, although his minor league BB/9 of 2.81 is somewhat encouraging. His 2006 minor league season though wasn't very good, with a K/BB rate under 2 and a GB rate of 36.7%. His GB rate was even worse - low 30s - in his limited major league experience. Probably the worst option the Mets have, although early in his career he showed some potential.

That wraps up our Starting Pitching analysis for the Mets. We will probably see a rotation of:

Tom Glavine

El Duque

John Maine

Oliver Perez

Chan Ho Park

to start the season. If Pedro Martinez comes back completely healthy and if Pelfrey or Humber are able to step up mid-season and pitch well, we could be looking at a very competent rotation come October.

Sources:
Most stats and batted ball figures can be found at The Hardball Times.
Minor league stats and batted ball figures for 2006 can be found at Minor League Splits
Career minor league stats can be found at The Baseball Cube.