Mets Bullpen Analysis - April

Yesterday I posted an analysis of my favorite team, the New York Mets, Starting Rotation for the month of April. Today I'm doing the Bullpen. You can also check this out over at Mets Fever.

The Bullpen

Billy Wagner – His K rate is down a little bit, but it’s still great and his K/BB is fantastic. His GB rate is way down from its normal 45% to 37%. That should increase. He’s getting lucky, but it doesn’t make much of a difference as he is a fantastic pitcher anyway.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman’s K rate is down all the way to 5.74. Probably related to his elbow troubles. His BB rate is improved, and could increase a little bit, but as long as he gets his Ks back on track he will be fine. His GB rate has also dropped from about 45% to 31.3%. That should increase as time goes on. Giving up a few too many HRs and not giving up as many hits as he should be, but once he gets his health in order he should be the Heilman of old.

Joe Smith – Love him. I was upset losing Bradford, but Smith shares similar qualities. I can only imagine if we had them both. Bradford is much better than Schoeneweis, who got similar money. High K rate (10.69) and High GB rate (68.4%) are fantastic, although both will probably drop a little. His BB rate isn’t as low as you’d like it (3.94), but his other two important stats make up for it. Once he lowers the BB rate he will prove to be on of the best relievers in all of baseball.

Scott Schoeneweis – Not pitching well… even worse than I expected when we signed him. He’s walking more than the measly amount he is striking out, and he’s being aided by a .216 BABIP. Unfortunately, that will catch up to him and hurt the team’s bullpen. Omar, why’d you let Chad Bradford go?!

Pedro Feliciano – K rate is good – although I’m still not convinced it will hold – but he is walking a ton of batters (6.14 per 9 IP). 59.5% GB rate is fantastic, but unlikely to last. .233 BABIP is keeping his ERA low, but once that gets to a normal level he’d better stop walking batters or he will be in trouble.

Aaron Sele – A slightly higher K/9, as you would expect with the shift to the bullpen, but also a higher BB/9, which is not good. It’s at 4.70, and he has to get that under 3.0 if he wants to be effective. 44.9% GB rate is pretty good, and should remain stable throughout the year. Hasn’t given up a single HR, which he should have by now, but his .364 BABIP means he’s giving up far more hits than he should be. Not great surface numbers, but I wouldn’t expect much of an improvement.

Lino Urdaneta – Didn’t expect to see this guy in a Mets uniform this year, and with only 1 IP the sample size is just too small to make any sort of assessment.

There you have it... the Mets Bullpen. Seems like we have three very good relievers (once Heilman gets his act together) and one potential one in Feliciano (once he stops walking people), and Duaner Sanchez should be added to this group once he gets back. Guillermo Mota will be an improvement over Urdaneta, Sele, and Schoeneweis once he returns (assuming his stats weren't overly inflated by steroids).

Mets Starting Pitching Analysis - April

In the preseason I was asked by Ed over at Mets Fever to sabermetrically analyze my favorite team, the New York Mets. I was also asked to provide analysis on how the team is doing throughout the year. Today I posted about Starting Pitchers over there, so if you'd like to check it out go right ahead. I will also post the article here for you.

Starting Pitchers

Tom Glavine – Glavine achieves his success through a low Walk rate and a high Groundball rate. His K/9 of 5.03 is what we expected, as is his 2.61 BB/9. His 45.6% GB rate is also where it should be. Glavine is solid like this. He is being aided by a low (.243 – league average is .290) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), meaning that he is not allowing as many hits as he should be. Since pitchers cannot control what happens to a ball once it is put into play, pitchers that have an usually high or low number of hits (due to luck and/or defense) tend to either progress or regress accordingly. Glavine is in for a little bit of a regression. Expect typical Tom Glavine the rest of the way.

Oliver Perez – Perez is putting up peripheral numbers very similar to his 2004 ones. A 9.89 K/9 is fantastic, and a 3.21 BB/9 is the lowest of his career. If he can keep this up, Perez will be a fantastic pitcher for the Mets. I have no scientific proof, but I’d have to think this has something to do with Rick Peterson. Great job Rick. Perez’s BABIP (.318) is a little high, so he might even do better if he can maintain his peripherals and stop receiving this little bit of bad luck.

John Maine – I hate to say it, but Maine has probably been the luckiest pitcher in the National League so far this year. His 8.14 K/9 is a very nice surprise, but his 4.76 BB/9 is much to high to sustain his surface numbers (ERA, WHIP, etc.). His GB Percentage is also at a career low of 35.4%, which is simply terrible. With that many flyballs allowed, you’d expect Maine to give up a lot of HRs, which he is not doing. His 0.60 HR/9 should rise well above 1.00 by the end of the year. His .230 BABIP is also a source of his luck. If Maine can lower his BB rate, he should be solid. Otherwise it might be a turbulent year for him.

Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey put up great peripheral numbers in the minors last year, but hasn’t done so in the majors this year. He is walking more batters than he strikes out, and his GB Percentage (44.8%) isn’t as good as it was in the minors last year. His BABIP and HR/9 are close to where they should be, so unless Pelfrey can make some changes what you see is what you get. I fully expect him to be a solid #1 or #2 one day, but he is not there yet.

Orlando Hernandez – Before going down, Hernandez was also getting pretty lucky. His .207 BABIP isn’t sustainable, although his 1.41 HR/9 should improve. His K/9 wasn’t as high as it was last year, and he will need to increase it upon his return to be successful. His BB/9 is typical El Duque (3.66), and I don’t see much of an improvement coming there. His 39% GB rate leaves him susceptible to the longball, but not as bad as he has been hit with it so far.

Jorge Sosa – Looks like a fluke in his two starts so far. I disliked him preseason, and his low K rate, high BB rate, and low GB rate hasn’t changed my mind. A .168 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck has gone into his 2.77 ERA.

The New York Mets

While for all fantasy intents and purposes I try to be completely objective, my baseball subjectivity can be found in my passion as a New York Mets fan. I have loved the Mets since I was very young, and continue to be a diehard Mets fan even after discovering sabermetrics. As such, I thought it might be fitting to examine my favorite team in the light of sabermetrics for real-life and fantasy purposes. The rest of today will be dedicated to analyzing the New York Mets.