Mets Starting Pitching Analysis - April

In the preseason I was asked by Ed over at Mets Fever to sabermetrically analyze my favorite team, the New York Mets. I was also asked to provide analysis on how the team is doing throughout the year. Today I posted about Starting Pitchers over there, so if you'd like to check it out go right ahead. I will also post the article here for you.

Starting Pitchers

Tom Glavine – Glavine achieves his success through a low Walk rate and a high Groundball rate. His K/9 of 5.03 is what we expected, as is his 2.61 BB/9. His 45.6% GB rate is also where it should be. Glavine is solid like this. He is being aided by a low (.243 – league average is .290) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), meaning that he is not allowing as many hits as he should be. Since pitchers cannot control what happens to a ball once it is put into play, pitchers that have an usually high or low number of hits (due to luck and/or defense) tend to either progress or regress accordingly. Glavine is in for a little bit of a regression. Expect typical Tom Glavine the rest of the way.

Oliver Perez – Perez is putting up peripheral numbers very similar to his 2004 ones. A 9.89 K/9 is fantastic, and a 3.21 BB/9 is the lowest of his career. If he can keep this up, Perez will be a fantastic pitcher for the Mets. I have no scientific proof, but I’d have to think this has something to do with Rick Peterson. Great job Rick. Perez’s BABIP (.318) is a little high, so he might even do better if he can maintain his peripherals and stop receiving this little bit of bad luck.

John Maine – I hate to say it, but Maine has probably been the luckiest pitcher in the National League so far this year. His 8.14 K/9 is a very nice surprise, but his 4.76 BB/9 is much to high to sustain his surface numbers (ERA, WHIP, etc.). His GB Percentage is also at a career low of 35.4%, which is simply terrible. With that many flyballs allowed, you’d expect Maine to give up a lot of HRs, which he is not doing. His 0.60 HR/9 should rise well above 1.00 by the end of the year. His .230 BABIP is also a source of his luck. If Maine can lower his BB rate, he should be solid. Otherwise it might be a turbulent year for him.

Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey put up great peripheral numbers in the minors last year, but hasn’t done so in the majors this year. He is walking more batters than he strikes out, and his GB Percentage (44.8%) isn’t as good as it was in the minors last year. His BABIP and HR/9 are close to where they should be, so unless Pelfrey can make some changes what you see is what you get. I fully expect him to be a solid #1 or #2 one day, but he is not there yet.

Orlando Hernandez – Before going down, Hernandez was also getting pretty lucky. His .207 BABIP isn’t sustainable, although his 1.41 HR/9 should improve. His K/9 wasn’t as high as it was last year, and he will need to increase it upon his return to be successful. His BB/9 is typical El Duque (3.66), and I don’t see much of an improvement coming there. His 39% GB rate leaves him susceptible to the longball, but not as bad as he has been hit with it so far.

Jorge Sosa – Looks like a fluke in his two starts so far. I disliked him preseason, and his low K rate, high BB rate, and low GB rate hasn’t changed my mind. A .168 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck has gone into his 2.77 ERA.

Waiver Wire - National League

Here is the National League edition of Waiver Wire for this week. Again, most weeks this will be out on Saturday or Sunday. Enjoy.

National League

Henry Owens | FLA | CL - The Jasor Frasor of the National League. He hasn't pitched exceptionally well - peripheral wise - so far this year, but if his dominance in AA last year was any indication, that could change very quickly. Should be good for some saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - A highly overlooked player on draft day, I own Edwin in a couple of leagues. If his owner in your league decides to drop him, pounce on him and wait for the rebound. His Contact Rate is down from last year, but his LD Percentage and BB rates are up. His .241 BABIP won't stick. Got unlucky with HRs last year, so expect a good BA in addition to 20-25 HRs and 10 or so SBs in 2007. He hits in a good lineup, so he should get his fair share of RBIs and Runs too.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Perhaps my favorite rookie this year. Quentin had an 86% Contact Rate and 19% Line Drive rate in the minors last year, in addition to 9 HRs and 33 2Bs and 3Bs in 318 ABs. His 11.4% BB rate is also very good. He is hitting 5th tonight ahead of Byrnes, Hudson, and Tracy and behind Conor Jackson and Chris Young. If he ends up batting further down his value may diminish, but Quentin is a good player and there are a lot of players currently on rosters in my leagues that I'd take him over. Even more valuable in keeper leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Expected to bat leadoff, the Diamondbacks now have him batting at the bottom of the order. If he can pick up his game he may get the job, but Young still is valuable as a bench player as is. An 82% LD Rate and 15% LD Rate in the minors last year are nothing to drool over, but an 11.2% BB rate is. This could help him reach 20 SBs. He also has some power, hitting 21 HRs and 36 2Bs and 3Bs last year.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Johnson is getting unlucky, so if his owner drops him, or if he has been on your waiver wire from the start, consider picking him up. We don't have a ton of information to go by, but he has a 90% Contact and 19% Walk rate so far. His 11% LD Rate is something to worry about, but hes got some pop in his bat and could net some cheap HRs. 15-20 SBs is also a possibility. Hitting atop the Braves lineup should net him a ton of Runs, especially if he can keep a good BB rate.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Mike Pelfrey | NYM | SP - Pelfrey is a guy with great numbers last year in the minors. He has the benefit of playing with a good offense and bullpen, so if his numbers translate well to the major he could end up being a huge bargain.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Penny | LAD | SP - Won't keep up this pace, but always seems to have a K/BB over 2. He is struggling mightily with that this year, and he'd need to K more guys to be productive. His GB Percentage is always good (although highly inflated so far this year), and Penny could be good back end guy for a lot of fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Could be valuable in deep leagues, especially if he gets his GB Percentage back up to its 2005 and 2006 level. He won't get a ton of Ks, but he seems to have good control and a good offense to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP - The favorite for saves at the beginning of the calendar year, Tankersley is just off the DL. Owens is the closer for now, but Tankersley has the stuff to take over if he falters.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jorge Julio | FLA | RP - Owens hasn't posted great peripherals yet this year and has yet to strikeout a batter. It is still possible that Julio closes some games this year if he can get back on track.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Lidge | HOU | RP - Similar situation to Julio. I don't expect Wheeler to falter, but if Lidge regains his dominance, which he certainly could (his peripherals aren't bad), he may take the job back by default.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings didn't have great numbers in the minors last year and doesn't have great ones in the majors either. Expect his Ks to go down and his ERA to go up.
Recommendation: Avoid in all leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Without a starting gig, Hamilton is not worth even a bench spot in mixed leagues. If Freel or Griffey or someone gets hurt, he might be worth something. For now avoid him unless you're in a deep AL-only league.
Recommendation: Avoid in mixed leagues. Should be watched in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

James Loney | LAD | 1B - One of my favorite minor leaguers. Will have some value if promoted and given ABs.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

UPDATE:
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum has now been made a starting pitcher. Dominant in 2 minor league starts thus far, could be up with the big club some time this year. If his numbers translate fairly well, Lincecum could be good pitcher for fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

Mailbag: Multi-Player Trade

Back with another edition of the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Mailbag. After this I'm getting back to work on the formulas and rankings. After reading feel free to comment on what you would do in this situation.

Luke Gloeckner wrote:
" Hey. First off: your blog is a lifesaver. There's some great knowledge on there. I just recently stumbled upon and have read through a great majority of it already. Awesome, awesome stuff!

Anyway, forgive me for doing so, but I wanted to talk through a situation with you. I'm in a keeper league that heavily favors pitching (notably, quality starts are worth more than any other stat). I'm one of those fools who ended up with Chris Young virtue of a pick in this year's draft. After drafting him, I was sifting through some stats and stumbled upon the BABIP leaders for last year and was floored by how he dwarfed the competition here. Then I found your article where you labeled him as over-hyped. So, I immediately put him on the trading block in my league (the rest of the league loved the pick when I got him) to see what value I could get for him (he is my fourth starter behind Santana, Lackey and Verlander).

The offer I was able to work out with someone is Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman and Rocco Baldelli for Garrett Atkins, Kelvim Escobar and Mike Pelfrey. Keep in mind, this is a keeper league (we keep four or five players each year). The offer's sitting on the table as of right now and I was just wondering what your thoughts on the deal were, as I've found your advice and research very valuable.

Once again, I apologize for trying to make use of you as a sounding board for trade advice but I just wanted a non-partisan opinion and through your writing, I can see yours is respectable. Write back with your thoughts, if you get the chance.

Thanks!"

My response:
"As I said on the blog, I am not a fan of Chris Young this year. He is alright, but is highly overrated. That being said, I think you've found yourself a very favorable deal. I believe I've mentioned Atkins before on the blog; he is fantastic. He should be a first round pick next year once people realize that he is for real. While Zimmerman is alright, he is no Atkins. I have Zimmerman down for a .287 BA and Atkins for .330-ish (I'm not at my normal computer right now to get the exact figure). While Zimmerman hit 50 2Bs and 3Bs and could take a leap in HRs, Atkins is already at a high power level and has an equally good chance to continue to hit more. Atkins also has the luxury of a superior lineup.

I have Escobar ranked around #20 and Young at #33, so I obviously see that as an upgrade. I like Pelfrey a lot too, if you read my Mets Preview of the Starting Rotation. It's difficult to tell how his numbers will translate to the majors, but he certainly has a ton of potential and is definitely a good guy to have in a keeper league (Philip Hughes is another guy I love in keeper leagues).

Baldelli is so-so, not a ton of power and not a fantastic contact hitter. He's expendable for sure.

Definately do this trade.

Looking at the rest of your rotation, my advice would be to make a few more trades. I'm not big on Verlander unless he can eventually get his K/9 up to the 8.00 - 9.00 level, which seems somewhat unlikely. There are much better pitchers out there. Same goes for Lackey, who is certainly a decent pitcher but not someone you should be relying on as a #2 (after this trade Escobar will actually be your second best pitcher). Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings; I think you'll find some guys who could provide better value than Lackey or Verlander. Felix, Hamels, Kazmir, and Myers are all great young guys who are better than these two. Verlander and Lackey are both highly rated for now, so I would definitely recommend trading them both (Verlander even more so) if at all possible.

Santana is obviously a great pitcher, but I don't have him on any of my teams. His value is so high right now I actually would look into a possible trade. You could get two great players for him. I don't know how your offense is, but if it's good I would try to grab two pitchers. Felix Hernandez would be awesome, especially in a keeper league. If you could get Felix and a Hamels/Kazmir/Myers type you would be in great shape. If you could get two of these for Verlander and Lackey you probably wouldn't even need to trade Santana, unless you wanted to get an elite hitter and another good pitcher for him.

A rotation of:
Santana, Felix, Myers, Escobar is very good, but

A rotation of:
Peavy, Felix, Myers, Escobar is also very good and could net you another top hitter for your offense.

Anyway, I think I've given you a little bit to think about.

Essentially, I would advise you to make this trade and look into a few more. I hope this advice helps! Let me know how everything turns out for you!"



Please let your thoughts on this matter be heard! Comment away!

New York Mets Starting Pitchers

Our New York Mets analysis kicks off with the Starting Pitchers.

Pedro Martinez - Not a draftable fantasy option
Will become a fantasy option once he comes back - and one of the better ones at that. He would get a Fantasy Score of 10.16 if he were playing the entire season, so if you can pick him up late in the year he could help a late surge for your team. He is just not worth wasting a roster spot on for only a month or two of stats. Great K/9 in the low 9s matched with a great BB/9 in the mid 2s makes for a dominant pitcher. His GB Percentage has dropped every year since 2002, falling to 36.3% in 2006. If he could get that back up around 40% and maintain his great K/BB ratio, he would be every bit as good as Johan Santana. I'm sure every Mets fan is hoping Pedro is able to come back at full strength in time for a playoff push.

Tom Glavine - Fantasy Score: 6.76
His lack of Ks - around 5 K/9 - leaves him off the fantasy radar. As a pitcher though, he is still fairly effective. His control is still there: high 2s BB/9, although we expect his K/BB to fall under 2 this year. His groundball percentage has been dropping since 2004 - 44.3% last year, but if he can get it back up to 47%, which it seems likely he will, he can still be a fairly reliable option. If the Mets are counting on him as their ace it could be trouble, especially if his K/9 falls below 5 and GB Percentage doesn't return.

El Duque - Fantasy Score: 7.98
El Duque is a fantasy option in deeper leagues, ranking in at #42, mostly because of his high K rate. His K/9 has been inconsistent - a rare thing for pitchers - but if Hernandez can keep it up in the 8 or 9 range he could be the Mets best pitcher this year. His BB/9 is a little high - hovering in the mid 3s - but an 8 or 9 K/9 makes up for it with a K/BB in the mid 2s. His GB Percentage is very low, 33% in 2006. It was 39% in 2005, which is still not very good, but if he can get it closer to there in addition to keeping his K/9 high he should be the Mets best pitcher.

John Maine - Fantasy Score: 7.20
A decent fantasy option in very deep leagues if he can keep his K/9 at his 2006 rate of 7.10. High K/9 rates in the minors show that Maine's K rate might be legitimate. He had a 3.30 BB/9 in 2006, making a respectable 2.15 K/BB rate. As long as he can keep his K/BB above 2 he should be a pretty good Major League Pitcher. His groundball percentage last year (37.5) isn't what you want it to be, but it was over 40% in limited innings in 2005. If he can get it up to 40% next year and keep his K/BB steady he should be the Mets second best pitcher - at least until Pedro Martinez returns.

Oliver Perez - Fantasy Score: 8.31
The best fantasy options of this quartet of Mets pitcher, directly as a result of his excellent K/9. 8.15 in 2006, 8.48 in 2005, and 10.97 in 2004, Perez has shown to be a legitimate strikeout pitcher. His control is a problem though, allowing 5.43 BB/9 in 2006 and 6.12 BB/9 in 2005. If he could ever get it back to the 3.72 of 2004, he could be a poor man's Johan Santana. I say this because Santana also relies on high Ks and low BBs to make up for his sub-par GB Percentage, although Oliver is even worse in this regard. His 30.1% in 2006 and 32.1% in 2005 is down right atrocious, making the possibility of him ever becoming more than an above average pitcher almost null. Even in his excellent 2004 it was only 35.3%. His ridiculous K/9 that year still made him one of the top 5-7 SPs, but unless it gets back up there and he gains better control, what you see is what you get with Oliver Perez - an average pitcher.

Now to analyze the options for the 5th Starter Spot.

Mike Pelfrey
If he continues to develop on this track he could be one of the best pitchers in the game. Pitching mostly at AA Binghampton last year, he struck out 10.45 batter per 9. He walked 3.53, so that may need to come down a tad. But his 49.4% groundball rate is what gets me excited. Combining high Ks with high GBs makes for an excellent pitcher. It's difficult to tell if he's ready yet, but I'd love to see him in Queens by mid-season. Could be a good fantasy option if he plays in New York this year.

Philip Humber
Similar to Pelfrey in that they both possess the necessary skills. He had a better K/BB than Pelfrey last year, striking out 9.42 per 9 and walking just 2.41, splitting his time between A+ St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. His GB Percentage is worse than Pelfrey's with a 41.3% rating in AA and 52% in single A ball. This still makes for an above-average groundball rating to go with great K and BB numbers. Again, may not be ready for the bigs, but he could be a legitimate pitcher one day. Could be a good fantasy option if he plays in New York this year.

Chan Ho Park - Fantasy Score: 6.38
Because his innings have been somewhat limited the past few years his numbers have fluctuated somewhat. His K/9 should be a little over 6.0, which is respectable. His BB/9 have done the same, but somewhere in the mid-to-high 3s seems reasonable for him this year. That would put his K/BB under 2.0, but an above average GB Percentage makes up for that a little. A rate somewhere around 45% is probably what we'll see out of Park, making him the Mets best option for the 5th spot (assuming Pelfrey and Humber aren't ready yet).

Jorge Sosa
Splitting time between starting and relieving, Sosa compiled a K/9 of 5.71 and 5.72 in 2006 and 2005. He had a 8.52 K/9 in 2004 working mostly in relief, but that seems like an anomaly as it was the only time in his career it went over 6. He compounds his not-so-good K/9 with a not-so-good BB/9. 4.30 in 2005, he improved in 2006 to 3.05. If he can keep it that low he would be better off, but his terrible GB Percentage (consistently around 35%) makes him little more than a bottom of the barrel pitching option for any team.

Aaron Sele
Possibly a worse option than Jorge Sosa, his K/9 is terrible. He hasn't gone above 5 since 2000. His BB/9 isn't great, but isn't terrible either. He had a good 2.61 BB/9 last year, and is usually fairly good with his control. A BB/9 in the low-to-mid 3s is to be expected for Sele if he pitches in the majors this year. With a GB Percentage between 38 and 43 between 2002 and 2005, Sele bumped that up to nearly 46% in 2006. Expect that to be closer to 41% this year.

Jason Vargas
Pretty good strikeout numbers in the minors indicate his 7.21 K/9 in 73.2 IP in 2005 could be for real, although his more modest 5.23 2006 K/9 is also possible. It will probable land somewhere between the two. His BB/9 is poor in his limited major league experience, although his minor league BB/9 of 2.81 is somewhat encouraging. His 2006 minor league season though wasn't very good, with a K/BB rate under 2 and a GB rate of 36.7%. His GB rate was even worse - low 30s - in his limited major league experience. Probably the worst option the Mets have, although early in his career he showed some potential.

That wraps up our Starting Pitching analysis for the Mets. We will probably see a rotation of:

Tom Glavine

El Duque

John Maine

Oliver Perez

Chan Ho Park

to start the season. If Pedro Martinez comes back completely healthy and if Pelfrey or Humber are able to step up mid-season and pitch well, we could be looking at a very competent rotation come October.

Sources:
Most stats and batted ball figures can be found at The Hardball Times.
Minor league stats and batted ball figures for 2006 can be found at Minor League Splits
Career minor league stats can be found at The Baseball Cube.