A couple of hours ago I ran a comparison on ProTrades All-Lucky Team and the Saberoticians findings. The results were very similar. Now we'll take a look at ProTrade's All-Unlucky Team and how it compares to our findings. The format is the same: Position, Player, ProTrade Expected Batting Average, Saberoticians Expected Average.
C - Mike Piazza - .308 - .307
1B - Jason Giambi - .270 - .271
2B - Josh Barfield - .297 - .280
SS - Jimmy Rollins - .289 - .300
3B - Garrett Atkins - .339 - .324
OF - Carlos Beltran - .298 - .288
OF - Andruw Jones - .279 - .293
OF - Adam Dunn - .248 - .249
We see similar results to the All-Lucky Team. Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi, and Adam Dunn are within .001 of each other. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran are within .011 of each other. With Garrett Atkins there is a .015 difference, although we both agree he was amazing.
I'm unsure why Barfield is so high for them, but their system is different than mine. I see an 80% Contact Rate, 18% Line Drive Rate, 6% BB Rate, 11 Flyball HRs and 13 Infield Hits. In my system this equates to a .280 Average. Perhaps the balls he put in play were extraordinarily well-hit and they just didn't fall. These types of things don't show up in my system as I don't have access to every batted ball.
Things can get a little murky when dealing with guys with speed. Beltran, Rollins, and Jones all have wheels, and Barfield isn't slow either.
All in all though, I think we see that batted balls provide an interesting look at things, but we can also get pretty darn close using these ratios too.
Showing posts with label underrated players. Show all posts
Showing posts with label underrated players. Show all posts
Friday, March 23, 2007
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Underrated Player Alert - Garrett Atkins
Garrett Atkins is one of my favorite players this year. People say third base this year is very deep. I tend to disagree. There are a lot of sleepers, but not a lot of positive value 3B who are already consistent producers - something we value very highly at the Saberoticians.
Where should I start with Atkins? He has a Contact Rate of 87% and a Line Drive Percentage of 23%. He rarely Ks for a guy who hits as many Home Runs as he does. And his HRs are not Coors inflated... we checked. His power is legitimate. Last year only 3 of his longballs wouldn't have been HRs in an average park with normal atmospheric conditions. Atkins is a beast. He has good plate discipline, 3.81 P/PA and a BB/TPA of 12% (which there is a decent chance will increase this year). This adds up to a batting average of roughly .330 and an On-Base Percentage of about .395 (We're beginning to think our Batting Averages are a bit on the high side across the board, but that's a subject for another time).
I've already mentioned his power as part of his average analysis, but let me reiterate. He's a good power hitter poised to become a great one. He hit 49 2Bs and 3Bs last year in addition to his 26 True Home Runs. His True Home Run total should easily surpass 30 and could get up to 35. His good On-Base skills, power, and decent lineup around him should make him a 4 category contributor and one of the top players in the game. Expect him to be a consensus first round pick next year.
Last but not least, Atkins is entering his age 27 season. Age 27 is the most likely age for a player to break out. 27 is the age when young men hit their peak physical form.
Add it all up, and you have one of the top dozen players in baseball. Take him in the second or third round and reap the rewards all season long.
Sources:
Batted Ball stats came from The Hardball Times
True HRs were derived from information at Hit Tracker
The Age 27 stuff has been talked about by CBS Sportsline for years.
Where should I start with Atkins? He has a Contact Rate of 87% and a Line Drive Percentage of 23%. He rarely Ks for a guy who hits as many Home Runs as he does. And his HRs are not Coors inflated... we checked. His power is legitimate. Last year only 3 of his longballs wouldn't have been HRs in an average park with normal atmospheric conditions. Atkins is a beast. He has good plate discipline, 3.81 P/PA and a BB/TPA of 12% (which there is a decent chance will increase this year). This adds up to a batting average of roughly .330 and an On-Base Percentage of about .395 (We're beginning to think our Batting Averages are a bit on the high side across the board, but that's a subject for another time).
I've already mentioned his power as part of his average analysis, but let me reiterate. He's a good power hitter poised to become a great one. He hit 49 2Bs and 3Bs last year in addition to his 26 True Home Runs. His True Home Run total should easily surpass 30 and could get up to 35. His good On-Base skills, power, and decent lineup around him should make him a 4 category contributor and one of the top players in the game. Expect him to be a consensus first round pick next year.
Last but not least, Atkins is entering his age 27 season. Age 27 is the most likely age for a player to break out. 27 is the age when young men hit their peak physical form.
Add it all up, and you have one of the top dozen players in baseball. Take him in the second or third round and reap the rewards all season long.
Sources:
Batted Ball stats came from The Hardball Times
True HRs were derived from information at Hit Tracker
The Age 27 stuff has been talked about by CBS Sportsline for years.
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