Buy Low Candidate: Jason Giambi

There's a lot surrounding Jason Giambi right now, which makes it a good time to buy low on him. To start, he's only batting .268 after hitting .253 last year. He hasn't hit over .300 since his first year with the Yankees in 2002. In addition, he has only hit 5 HRs through nearly two months of the season.

Next, he's having trouble with a bone spur in his left heel. This is the problem I am most concerned with. This problem has kept him out of Yankee Interleague games being played in NL parks so far. Not healthy enough to play first base, Giambi has been relegated to sitting on the bench.

To top it all off, Giambi all but admitted on Friday to using steroids. His comments have allowed speculation to run rampant among reporters and speculators. Some have said that Giambi could be suspended. As far as I know, however, players can only be suspended if they have used steroids since 2005. Others have said that the Yankees might try and terminate Giambi's large contract. Again, this seems doubtful at best. George Steinbrenner cares about one thing: winning. He doesn't care how much money it costs or how ethically he does it (i.e. he doesn't care if Giambi used steroids a couple years ago); he just wants to win. Giambi can help him do that. Giambi is one of the best players in baseball, and to think Steinbrenner will give him up so he can save a few bucks just doesn't seem to be a likely scenario.

So where does all this leave Giambi's fantasy value? In the gutter. Honestly, it's already probably slipped through the gutter cracks and is being swept away down a sewage pipeline of grime. That makes this the best time to take advantage.

Preseason, I expected Giambi to hit around 45 HRs judging by his HitTracker numbers. While his power hasn't been very impressive so far, and he has yet to hit a ball with a True Distance over 400 feet, I have to think that the power is still in there and will come out soon. His 78% Contact rate is the best it's been since it was 80% in his 2002 season (the last season he hit over .300). His BB rate is down from its gargantuan 20% in 2005 and 2006, but 14% still ranks among the best in baseball. His career BB rate is 16.2%, so an increase is likely. His LD Percentage is a respectable 18.8%. All in all, I think his selectivity will allow him to hit .280. Plus, he hits for the Yankees, so a lot of RBIs and Runs should be a given.

My biggest concern with Giambi is his foot. I wish I knew a little more about how certain injuries affect players, but if you can get Giambi for cheap I think this is a risk that is well worth taking. If you get Giambi, just make sure you have a capable backup in case he can't play in the next Yankee NL Interleague series. A guy like Dan Johnson would be more than adequate. Conor Jackson would work too.

Rate My Team

Hey guys. I figured I'd give you something to look at having not posted much in the last 36 hours. This is one of my teams this year. This league is a 5x5, Roto Style, 10-team league.

C - Mike Piazza
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Ray Durham
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
SS - Bill Hall
CI - Jason Giambi
MI - Ryan Freel
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Kenny Lofton
RF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Barry Bonds
OF - Adam Dunn
UT - Frank Thomas
BN - Adam LaRoche
BN - Pat Burrell
BN - Chris Duncan

SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Felix Hernandez
RP - Octavio Dotel
RP - Akinori Otsuka
P - Curt Schilling
P - Brett Myers
P - Javier Vazquez
BN - Scott Olsen
BN - Mike Pelfrey


Alright, let me know what you think of my team. I am currently trying to get a base stealer after missing out on Carlos Beltran early. A Juan Pierre type I think would fit nicely with this team, especially considering Kenny Lofton is my current CF. Anyway, my draft was conducted before my I finished my hitter rankings (which I believe I made some great strides on today), so my offense may or may not fit with my rankings exactly. All of these guys I believe are good baseball players. Let's hope that my rankings find they are good fantasy players too!

A Look at ProTrades All-Unlucky Team vs. Saberoticians Stats

A couple of hours ago I ran a comparison on ProTrades All-Lucky Team and the Saberoticians findings. The results were very similar. Now we'll take a look at ProTrade's All-Unlucky Team and how it compares to our findings. The format is the same: Position, Player, ProTrade Expected Batting Average, Saberoticians Expected Average.

C - Mike Piazza - .308 - .307
1B - Jason Giambi - .270 - .271
2B - Josh Barfield - .297 - .280
SS - Jimmy Rollins - .289 - .300
3B - Garrett Atkins - .339 - .324
OF - Carlos Beltran - .298 - .288
OF - Andruw Jones - .279 - .293
OF - Adam Dunn - .248 - .249

We see similar results to the All-Lucky Team. Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi, and Adam Dunn are within .001 of each other. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran are within .011 of each other. With Garrett Atkins there is a .015 difference, although we both agree he was amazing.

I'm unsure why Barfield is so high for them, but their system is different than mine. I see an 80% Contact Rate, 18% Line Drive Rate, 6% BB Rate, 11 Flyball HRs and 13 Infield Hits. In my system this equates to a .280 Average. Perhaps the balls he put in play were extraordinarily well-hit and they just didn't fall. These types of things don't show up in my system as I don't have access to every batted ball.

Things can get a little murky when dealing with guys with speed. Beltran, Rollins, and Jones all have wheels, and Barfield isn't slow either.

All in all though, I think we see that batted balls provide an interesting look at things, but we can also get pretty darn close using these ratios too.