A couple of hours ago I ran a comparison on ProTrades All-Lucky Team and the Saberoticians findings. The results were very similar. Now we'll take a look at ProTrade's All-Unlucky Team and how it compares to our findings. The format is the same: Position, Player, ProTrade Expected Batting Average, Saberoticians Expected Average.
C - Mike Piazza - .308 - .307
1B - Jason Giambi - .270 - .271
2B - Josh Barfield - .297 - .280
SS - Jimmy Rollins - .289 - .300
3B - Garrett Atkins - .339 - .324
OF - Carlos Beltran - .298 - .288
OF - Andruw Jones - .279 - .293
OF - Adam Dunn - .248 - .249
We see similar results to the All-Lucky Team. Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi, and Adam Dunn are within .001 of each other. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran are within .011 of each other. With Garrett Atkins there is a .015 difference, although we both agree he was amazing.
I'm unsure why Barfield is so high for them, but their system is different than mine. I see an 80% Contact Rate, 18% Line Drive Rate, 6% BB Rate, 11 Flyball HRs and 13 Infield Hits. In my system this equates to a .280 Average. Perhaps the balls he put in play were extraordinarily well-hit and they just didn't fall. These types of things don't show up in my system as I don't have access to every batted ball.
Things can get a little murky when dealing with guys with speed. Beltran, Rollins, and Jones all have wheels, and Barfield isn't slow either.
All in all though, I think we see that batted balls provide an interesting look at things, but we can also get pretty darn close using these ratios too.
Showing posts with label undervalued players. Show all posts
Showing posts with label undervalued players. Show all posts
Friday, March 23, 2007
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Undervalued Player Alert - Frank Thomas
Many fantasy baseball sites are saying how unlikely it is for Frank Thomas to repeat his 2006 season, how he is being drafted too high. I disagree completely with these people. Frank Thomas is an amazing baseball player and a darn good fantasy player. While Thomas is 39 years old, we still think he has enough gas left in the tank for him to be one of the best values of the draft in Round 9 or 10 of a 12-team draft.
The first thing we'll talk about is his incredible power. He hit 39 Home Runs and 37 True Home Runs last year. He will probably get fewer At-Bats this year, so we have him down for 29 True Home Runs. Strangely enough he only hit 12 Doubles last year, the only red flag we see for him. These tend to be a subjective stat, but 12 isn't a lot even considering this fact. Despite this, we still think he will be a good power option. He's hitting in the heart of a good lineup, with good hitters in front and behind. His RBI numbers should be good.
Thomas is actually a deceptively good contact hitter. Thomas hit .270 last year despite a .251 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) - nearly .50 points below average. Had he hit the league average .300 BABIP he would have approached a .300 average. Part of his low BABIP could be his lack of speed, but BABIP is luck influenced, even for hitters.
Thomas's Contact Rate seems to fluctuate more than most hitters, but it was 83% last year - rare for someone with his power. We expect it to be around 78% or 79% this year. Thomas is one of the most disciplined hitters in all of baseball and draws a ton of walks (which will also help him to score runs), which is important for those who hit for high average. A 19% Line Drive Percentage doesn't hurt either. His high HR rates also help out too... they're like free hits.
His Ks are a weakness, but if he can keep his K/AB around 21% or 22%, Thomas should hit around .285-.290. I know this sounds absurd... very few people, I imagine, project Frank Thomas to hit that high. I may end up looking like a fool come September, but the numbers add up, and I trust the numbers. I don't take speed into my calculations, as it is difficult to quantify, and Thomas's lack of speed may be the reason for his low BABIP, which means his Batting Average may only be .270 or .280. I'm hoping this isn't the case, and his .285 BABIP in 2004 is a good start to the argument against this theory. I would have no problem reserving a spot on my team for Thomas and pessimistically putting him down for a .275-.280 average.
He won't steal any bases and his lack of speed will keep his Runs Scored somewhat modest, but Thomas is a great ballplayer that should help out in four categories. His lack of first base eligibility in most leagues is a downer, but a man with the skills of Thomas is worth constricting to your UT spot. Take Thomas in the 9th or 10th round and get the production of a third rounder.
The first thing we'll talk about is his incredible power. He hit 39 Home Runs and 37 True Home Runs last year. He will probably get fewer At-Bats this year, so we have him down for 29 True Home Runs. Strangely enough he only hit 12 Doubles last year, the only red flag we see for him. These tend to be a subjective stat, but 12 isn't a lot even considering this fact. Despite this, we still think he will be a good power option. He's hitting in the heart of a good lineup, with good hitters in front and behind. His RBI numbers should be good.
Thomas is actually a deceptively good contact hitter. Thomas hit .270 last year despite a .251 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) - nearly .50 points below average. Had he hit the league average .300 BABIP he would have approached a .300 average. Part of his low BABIP could be his lack of speed, but BABIP is luck influenced, even for hitters.
Thomas's Contact Rate seems to fluctuate more than most hitters, but it was 83% last year - rare for someone with his power. We expect it to be around 78% or 79% this year. Thomas is one of the most disciplined hitters in all of baseball and draws a ton of walks (which will also help him to score runs), which is important for those who hit for high average. A 19% Line Drive Percentage doesn't hurt either. His high HR rates also help out too... they're like free hits.
His Ks are a weakness, but if he can keep his K/AB around 21% or 22%, Thomas should hit around .285-.290. I know this sounds absurd... very few people, I imagine, project Frank Thomas to hit that high. I may end up looking like a fool come September, but the numbers add up, and I trust the numbers. I don't take speed into my calculations, as it is difficult to quantify, and Thomas's lack of speed may be the reason for his low BABIP, which means his Batting Average may only be .270 or .280. I'm hoping this isn't the case, and his .285 BABIP in 2004 is a good start to the argument against this theory. I would have no problem reserving a spot on my team for Thomas and pessimistically putting him down for a .275-.280 average.
He won't steal any bases and his lack of speed will keep his Runs Scored somewhat modest, but Thomas is a great ballplayer that should help out in four categories. His lack of first base eligibility in most leagues is a downer, but a man with the skills of Thomas is worth constricting to your UT spot. Take Thomas in the 9th or 10th round and get the production of a third rounder.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
