OK. Time for the finale of this feature. We'll now look at the long-term potential of these guys. Keep in mind, I haven't done extensive research into which types of minor leaguers tend to become good major leaguers, and these rankings are very rough. They represent the order in which I, if in a keeper league, would probably keep them being forced to choose now. Without further ado...
Keeper League Rankings
1. Alex Gordon
1a. Kevin Kouzmanoff
2. Ryan Braun
2a. Edwin Encarnacion
3. Akinori Iwamura
4. Andy LaRoche
5. Mark Reynolds
Alright. I hope you enjoyed this feature today. I'll be back tomorrow with the Waiver Wire for both leagues and possibly something else.
Showing posts with label Alex Gordon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Gordon. Show all posts
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part III
Alright. Throughout the day I've analyzed some of the Top Young Third Basemen in the majors. Now, I'll rank these guys in the order I think you should pick them up if you are in need of a 3B/CI. First will be short-term rankings. Please keep in mind that rookies are the toughest players to predict because we are basing these predictions on easily compromised minor league numbers and speculation. A guy like Ryan Braun could hit for a good average if his 2007 AAA numbers carry over, but as this is somewhat unlikely, I'm not going to count on him hitting .300 for me.
Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.
Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.
One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.
2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB
Long-term rankings will come tonight!
Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.
Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.
One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.
2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB
Long-term rankings will come tonight!
Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part I
Terrible, terribly sorry for the scarcity of posts this week. I'll try to make up for it today. Right now, let's take a look at the young third basemen that are quite possibly on your waiver wire if you're in a shallow or moderately deep league. I've been asked about a few of them over the past couple days, so hopefully this post will answer all of those questions.
I'll first take a look at each player's stats in the majors this year, and then we'll see if they mesh with his minor league numbers. I'll look at 3 guys now, the rest in a couple of hours, and then provide a list ranking them later this afternoon.
Alex Gordon - Picked by many as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite back in March, Gordon has disappointed those people so far. Let's look at his prospects for the rest of the year. He has a 71% Contact rate, a 9.9% BB rate, and a 22.7% LD rate. His BB and LD stats translate to better than a .252 BABIP, although his low Contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a very high BABIP. It should increase to maybe .250 or .260, but if he keeps striking out it won't get much higher. Gordon has only hit 3 HRs so far, but each has had a True Distance over 400 ft according to HitTracker.
In 2006, he had an 80% Contact rate, 12.5% BB rate, and a 16.3% LD rate in Double A. Judging by that, there is a decent chance he could see an improved contact rate, which would help his average. I don't see his BB rate getting too much higher this year, but it is at a respectable level. He hit 29 HRs and 40 2Bs and 3Bs, and combined with the power he's shown this year I'd say Gordon is in for a power surge the rest of the year. I'd say 18-20 HRs is a possibility. The Royals lineup is better than advertised, so Gordon should get some RBIs and a decent number of Runs if he can move up a spot or two.
Akinori Iwamura - Coming off the DL next week, Iwamura was a beast in April. He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. Those numbers are bound to come down, but even if he ends up with an 11% BB rate and 22% LD rate Iwamura could hit .285-.290. He also stole three bases, and after saying preseason that he was aiming for 40, I think he could still grab 20 or 25 by year's end. He also said he wanted 20 HRs, and his only one in April went a True Distance of 414 feet.
We'll look at Iwamura's Japanese numbers since this is his first year in America. In 2006, he had a 77% Contact rate and an 11.3% BB rate. In 2005, he had a 73.5% K rate and a 10.2% BB rate. For his career he had a 75.5% Contact rate and a 9.3% BB rate. Judging by that, I'd say his Contact rate is bound to drop into the high 70s and his BB rate might finish around 9 or 10%. With those numbers (and a 22% LD rate), Iwamura could hit .275 or .280. He had 44, 30, and 32 HRs, respectively, in 2004, 2005, and 2006, so 15 or 20 might be a possibility for this year. The D'Rays lineup is pretty good, and if he bats 6th again he should get his share of RBIs. His walks and a decent back of the order will help him get a few Runs.
Kevin Kouzmanoff - Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff was an early favorite for Rookie of the Year, except in the NL. Also like Alex Gordon, he got off to a slow start. So far in 2006, he has a 75% Contact rate, 7.7% BB rate, and 20.2% LD rate. So-so, unspectacular numbers. The good news is that they can improve. The other good news is that he's got some power. He's hit 4 HRs so far (excluding his one last night), and they had True Distances of 378, 391, 429, and 447 feet. Seems like he can hit the ball a good distance.
In 244 Double AA At-Bats, Kouzmanoff had an 87.7% Contact rate, 8.3% BB rate, and an 18.4% LD rate. In 100 AAA At-Bats, he had an 89.3% Contact Rate, 8% BB rate, and a 23.3% LD rate. Judging by these, I'd say his Contact Rate should improve and his BB and LD rates seem about right. Since May 14th, he's had an 82.8% Contact Rate, so I think he is well on his way to becoming the player I expected him to be preseason. He had 15 HRs in AA and 6 HRs in AAA, so I think 20 HRs in the majors is pretty likely. The Padres lineup is good (although Brian Giles is DL bound), and if Kouzmanoff can get himself up a few spots he should be fine with RBIs and get a decent amount of Runs.
OK. In an hour or two I'll post about a few more 3B, including Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Braun. Later this afternoon, I'll post a list ranking these guys.
I'll first take a look at each player's stats in the majors this year, and then we'll see if they mesh with his minor league numbers. I'll look at 3 guys now, the rest in a couple of hours, and then provide a list ranking them later this afternoon.
Alex Gordon - Picked by many as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite back in March, Gordon has disappointed those people so far. Let's look at his prospects for the rest of the year. He has a 71% Contact rate, a 9.9% BB rate, and a 22.7% LD rate. His BB and LD stats translate to better than a .252 BABIP, although his low Contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a very high BABIP. It should increase to maybe .250 or .260, but if he keeps striking out it won't get much higher. Gordon has only hit 3 HRs so far, but each has had a True Distance over 400 ft according to HitTracker.
In 2006, he had an 80% Contact rate, 12.5% BB rate, and a 16.3% LD rate in Double A. Judging by that, there is a decent chance he could see an improved contact rate, which would help his average. I don't see his BB rate getting too much higher this year, but it is at a respectable level. He hit 29 HRs and 40 2Bs and 3Bs, and combined with the power he's shown this year I'd say Gordon is in for a power surge the rest of the year. I'd say 18-20 HRs is a possibility. The Royals lineup is better than advertised, so Gordon should get some RBIs and a decent number of Runs if he can move up a spot or two.
Akinori Iwamura - Coming off the DL next week, Iwamura was a beast in April. He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. Those numbers are bound to come down, but even if he ends up with an 11% BB rate and 22% LD rate Iwamura could hit .285-.290. He also stole three bases, and after saying preseason that he was aiming for 40, I think he could still grab 20 or 25 by year's end. He also said he wanted 20 HRs, and his only one in April went a True Distance of 414 feet.
We'll look at Iwamura's Japanese numbers since this is his first year in America. In 2006, he had a 77% Contact rate and an 11.3% BB rate. In 2005, he had a 73.5% K rate and a 10.2% BB rate. For his career he had a 75.5% Contact rate and a 9.3% BB rate. Judging by that, I'd say his Contact rate is bound to drop into the high 70s and his BB rate might finish around 9 or 10%. With those numbers (and a 22% LD rate), Iwamura could hit .275 or .280. He had 44, 30, and 32 HRs, respectively, in 2004, 2005, and 2006, so 15 or 20 might be a possibility for this year. The D'Rays lineup is pretty good, and if he bats 6th again he should get his share of RBIs. His walks and a decent back of the order will help him get a few Runs.
Kevin Kouzmanoff - Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff was an early favorite for Rookie of the Year, except in the NL. Also like Alex Gordon, he got off to a slow start. So far in 2006, he has a 75% Contact rate, 7.7% BB rate, and 20.2% LD rate. So-so, unspectacular numbers. The good news is that they can improve. The other good news is that he's got some power. He's hit 4 HRs so far (excluding his one last night), and they had True Distances of 378, 391, 429, and 447 feet. Seems like he can hit the ball a good distance.
In 244 Double AA At-Bats, Kouzmanoff had an 87.7% Contact rate, 8.3% BB rate, and an 18.4% LD rate. In 100 AAA At-Bats, he had an 89.3% Contact Rate, 8% BB rate, and a 23.3% LD rate. Judging by these, I'd say his Contact Rate should improve and his BB and LD rates seem about right. Since May 14th, he's had an 82.8% Contact Rate, so I think he is well on his way to becoming the player I expected him to be preseason. He had 15 HRs in AA and 6 HRs in AAA, so I think 20 HRs in the majors is pretty likely. The Padres lineup is good (although Brian Giles is DL bound), and if Kouzmanoff can get himself up a few spots he should be fine with RBIs and get a decent amount of Runs.
OK. In an hour or two I'll post about a few more 3B, including Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Braun. Later this afternoon, I'll post a list ranking these guys.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Waiver Wire: American League
Again everyone, sorry this is late. In two weeks this sort of thing won't happen anymore. Here we go!
American League
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.
Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
American League
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.
Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
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