Over the past week I mentioned two articles written over at the HardBall Times. One was on Philip Hughes's mechanics, and the other was on the potential market inefficiency of Risk. Since then followup articles have been posted about both, so I thought I'd let you guys know about them. I'll be writing a little more on risk and its applicability to Fantasy Baseball either later today or tomorrow. Links to both of the followup articles are below.
Philip Hughes followup
Risk followup
Showing posts with label philip hughes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label philip hughes. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Hughes and Lincecum
Well, it seems as though Philip Hughes will be out for 4-6 weeks. Not good for those of us who were relying on him in the back end of our fantasy rotations. If you have an open DL spot, put him there. If you don't, but can afford sitting him on your bench, do it. Otherwise its a case by case basis, depending on the size of your league, the type of league, your other pitchers, and a few other factors. Email if you'd like my opinion on what you should do with him.
Better news, though, is that Russ Ortiz gave up 8 runs in 3.1 IP last night. This is exactly the type of performance that will force the Giants to bring up Tim Lincecum. If you need pitching and he is still on your Waiver Wire, make sure you grab him now. It should only be a matter of weeks (and possibly... hopefully... less) before we see his Big League debut.
Better news, though, is that Russ Ortiz gave up 8 runs in 3.1 IP last night. This is exactly the type of performance that will force the Giants to bring up Tim Lincecum. If you need pitching and he is still on your Waiver Wire, make sure you grab him now. It should only be a matter of weeks (and possibly... hopefully... less) before we see his Big League debut.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Interesting Article on Philip Hughes
While Philip Hughes is pitching into the 7th inning against the Rangers, I have been reading an article on him over at the Hardball Times. Very interesting. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it yet, but if I develop a strong opinion I'll be sure to let you know. Make sure to check it out, and to cheer Philip on against the Rangers. His peripherals look quite good right now.
Wow, interesting move. I was about to post this when I saw that Hughes has just been removed from the game despite having a no-hitter through 6.1 innings. I realize that no-hitters don't actually mean a whole lot, but with the luster of it I'd think Torre would let him keep pitching. He'd only thrown 84 pitches. Oh well, I guess they want to take care of him. I can't really complain, he pitched a good game for me.
A lot of people said to bench Hughes against Texas in mixed leagues; I didn't see the necessity of it considering his good peripheral numbers against Toronto. I'm certainly glad I played him, and I hope the Yankees see what we do... that Hughes deserves to stay in the Bigs.
UPDATE: I should have known he was removed for a reason. He tweaked his hamstring. Let's hope it's nothing serious; Hughes could end up as a Top 20 SP this year.
Wow, interesting move. I was about to post this when I saw that Hughes has just been removed from the game despite having a no-hitter through 6.1 innings. I realize that no-hitters don't actually mean a whole lot, but with the luster of it I'd think Torre would let him keep pitching. He'd only thrown 84 pitches. Oh well, I guess they want to take care of him. I can't really complain, he pitched a good game for me.
A lot of people said to bench Hughes against Texas in mixed leagues; I didn't see the necessity of it considering his good peripheral numbers against Toronto. I'm certainly glad I played him, and I hope the Yankees see what we do... that Hughes deserves to stay in the Bigs.
UPDATE: I should have known he was removed for a reason. He tweaked his hamstring. Let's hope it's nothing serious; Hughes could end up as a Top 20 SP this year.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Rookie Pitchers to Look Out For
With the arrival of Philip Hughes, I thought it fitting to go over a few other minor league pitchers who figured to be called up sometime within the next month or two. I've talked a little about each player and given his 2006 and 2007 minor league numbers. I haven't included every possible player because MinorLeagueSplits.com doesn't provide a comprehensive list of players, just individual pages. If there's someone else you'd like to know about just let me know. We'll keep tabs on these guys throughout the year.
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Seemingly had a sub par outing against the Blue Jays in his first start on Thursday, but Hughes put up terrific peripheral numbers. 10.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, and a 46.7% Groundball rate does not equate to 4 runs. Hughes certainly could have pitched worse, and if he stays in the majors past his start against the Rangers on Tuesday figures to be a good play in most leagues. His minor league numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Trenton - 116 IP | 10.71 K/9 | 2.48 BB/9 | 52.4% GB
2006 A+ Tampa - 30.3 IP | 8.90 K/9 | 0.59 BB/9 | 51.4% GB
Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Doesn't get nearly as much hype as Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, or Yovani Gallardo, but Adam Miller is just as good as any of them, and is significantly better than Bailey. But up fantastic numbers in AA last year, just a touch worse than Philip Hughes. There's no guarantee he will be called up this year, but the Indians brought up Jeremy Sowers after 97 IP at AAA Buffalo last year, and Adam Miller is much better than Jeremy Sowers. Would become the Cleveland's 2nd best fantasy pitcher after C.C. Sabathia if he is called up. His minor leagues numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Akron - 154 IP | 9.18 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 55% GB
2007 AAA Buffalo - 24.3 IP | 8.51 K/9 | 2.96 BB/9 | 54.7% GB
Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - While he is not as heralded as Hughes or Bailey, Gallardo is generally considered the third best pitching prospect in baseball. While I don't quite agree with this consensus, Gallardo is certainly a good one. His GB Percentage is what will determine where he falls. It is down for this year, but if he can get it back above 50% he should be just a tick worse than Hughes and about even with Miller. Milwaukee's rotation seems set for now, but if Vargas starts to struggle or one of the starters get injured Gallardo could get his shot. Gallardo would become Milwaukee's third best fantasy starter behind Sheets and Bush. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Brevard County - 78 IP | 11.88 K/9 | 2.65 BB/9 | 57.3% GB
2006 AA Huntsville - 77.3 IP | 9.89 K/9 | 3.26 BB/9 | 42% GB
2007 AAA Nashville - 22.3 IP | 13.3 K/9 | 2.82 BB/9 | 39.6% GB
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted in June of last year, Lincecum didn't get much work in. The work he did get in though was fantastic, and his numbers this year are also great. The Giants rotation seems pretty set at the moment, although Russ Ortiz or Noah Lowry could find himself out of a starting gig if the Giants decide Lincecum is ready. When he is called up, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend him over every other Giants pitcher. He will need to cut down on his walks though. If he can do that he would shoot to the top of this list. His brief minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ San Jose - 27.7 IP | 15.61 K/9 | 3.90 BB/9 | 52.1% GB
2007 AAA Fresno - 24 IP | 12.00 K/9 | 4.13 BB/9 | 56% GB
Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Bailey is a guy who I feel is overrated. He is considered by some a better prospect than Philip Hughes, but his numbers just don't support this theory. He walked more batters at AA than any of our other pitchers did, and his GB rate isn't stellar. He is still a decent pitcher, but he will need to improve his control in order to be successful in the Bigs this year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Sarasota - 70.7 IP | 10.06 K/9 | 2.80 BB/9 | 44.2% GB
2006 AA Chattanooga - 67.7 IP | 10.24 K/9 | 3.72 BB/9 | 49.7% GB
2007 AAA Louisville - 21.3 IP | 5.48 K/9 | 3.80 BB/9 | 39.1% GB
Jason Windsor | OAK | SP - Perhaps you've never heard of Windsor, but he is a fine young pitcher. He's the only player on this list to pitch in AAA last year and put up numbers comparable to all of their AA numbers. His GB Percentage is not premium and is what keeps him closer to Bailey than Hughes. Has not pitched well this year, but if that changes you might see him up with the big club by the end of the year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 AA Midland - 33.3 IP | 9.45 K/9 | 2.70 BB/9 | 48.2% GB
2006 AAA Sacramento - 118 IP | 9.38 K/9 | 2.44 BB/9 | 46.1% GB
2007 AAA Sacramento - 26.7 IP | 5.74 K/9 | 4.05 BB/9 | 37.8% GB
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Seemingly had a sub par outing against the Blue Jays in his first start on Thursday, but Hughes put up terrific peripheral numbers. 10.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, and a 46.7% Groundball rate does not equate to 4 runs. Hughes certainly could have pitched worse, and if he stays in the majors past his start against the Rangers on Tuesday figures to be a good play in most leagues. His minor league numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Trenton - 116 IP | 10.71 K/9 | 2.48 BB/9 | 52.4% GB
2006 A+ Tampa - 30.3 IP | 8.90 K/9 | 0.59 BB/9 | 51.4% GB
Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Doesn't get nearly as much hype as Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, or Yovani Gallardo, but Adam Miller is just as good as any of them, and is significantly better than Bailey. But up fantastic numbers in AA last year, just a touch worse than Philip Hughes. There's no guarantee he will be called up this year, but the Indians brought up Jeremy Sowers after 97 IP at AAA Buffalo last year, and Adam Miller is much better than Jeremy Sowers. Would become the Cleveland's 2nd best fantasy pitcher after C.C. Sabathia if he is called up. His minor leagues numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Akron - 154 IP | 9.18 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 55% GB
2007 AAA Buffalo - 24.3 IP | 8.51 K/9 | 2.96 BB/9 | 54.7% GB
Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - While he is not as heralded as Hughes or Bailey, Gallardo is generally considered the third best pitching prospect in baseball. While I don't quite agree with this consensus, Gallardo is certainly a good one. His GB Percentage is what will determine where he falls. It is down for this year, but if he can get it back above 50% he should be just a tick worse than Hughes and about even with Miller. Milwaukee's rotation seems set for now, but if Vargas starts to struggle or one of the starters get injured Gallardo could get his shot. Gallardo would become Milwaukee's third best fantasy starter behind Sheets and Bush. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Brevard County - 78 IP | 11.88 K/9 | 2.65 BB/9 | 57.3% GB
2006 AA Huntsville - 77.3 IP | 9.89 K/9 | 3.26 BB/9 | 42% GB
2007 AAA Nashville - 22.3 IP | 13.3 K/9 | 2.82 BB/9 | 39.6% GB
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted in June of last year, Lincecum didn't get much work in. The work he did get in though was fantastic, and his numbers this year are also great. The Giants rotation seems pretty set at the moment, although Russ Ortiz or Noah Lowry could find himself out of a starting gig if the Giants decide Lincecum is ready. When he is called up, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend him over every other Giants pitcher. He will need to cut down on his walks though. If he can do that he would shoot to the top of this list. His brief minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ San Jose - 27.7 IP | 15.61 K/9 | 3.90 BB/9 | 52.1% GB
2007 AAA Fresno - 24 IP | 12.00 K/9 | 4.13 BB/9 | 56% GB
Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Bailey is a guy who I feel is overrated. He is considered by some a better prospect than Philip Hughes, but his numbers just don't support this theory. He walked more batters at AA than any of our other pitchers did, and his GB rate isn't stellar. He is still a decent pitcher, but he will need to improve his control in order to be successful in the Bigs this year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Sarasota - 70.7 IP | 10.06 K/9 | 2.80 BB/9 | 44.2% GB
2006 AA Chattanooga - 67.7 IP | 10.24 K/9 | 3.72 BB/9 | 49.7% GB
2007 AAA Louisville - 21.3 IP | 5.48 K/9 | 3.80 BB/9 | 39.1% GB
Jason Windsor | OAK | SP - Perhaps you've never heard of Windsor, but he is a fine young pitcher. He's the only player on this list to pitch in AAA last year and put up numbers comparable to all of their AA numbers. His GB Percentage is not premium and is what keeps him closer to Bailey than Hughes. Has not pitched well this year, but if that changes you might see him up with the big club by the end of the year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 AA Midland - 33.3 IP | 9.45 K/9 | 2.70 BB/9 | 48.2% GB
2006 AAA Sacramento - 118 IP | 9.38 K/9 | 2.44 BB/9 | 46.1% GB
2007 AAA Sacramento - 26.7 IP | 5.74 K/9 | 4.05 BB/9 | 37.8% GB
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Philip Hughes Has Been Added to Yahoo!
Philip Hughes has been added to Yahoo's database! I was actually expecting him to make Thursday's start before he showed up. Pick him up now if you've been waiting on him! He may only make one start, but I doubt the Yankees would start his arbitration clock early just to have him make one start. He may go back down for a couple of weeks, but expect Hughes to make at least 20 starts for the Yankees this year if healthy.
Waiver Wire: American League
Again everyone, sorry this is late. In two weeks this sort of thing won't happen anymore. Here we go!
American League
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.
Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
American League
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.
Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Philip Hughes Called Up!
For those of your looking for Starting Pitching help (like myself, losing Brett Myers to the Bullpen, Felix Hernandez to an injury, and Scott Olsen to terrible play), Philip Hughes will be called up by the Yankees to start Thursday's game against the Toronto Blue Jays.
One of my favorite pitching prospects, Hughes should be a top pitcher for years to come. Whether or not he will reach expectations this year is yet to be seen, but he has the minor league resume to allow us to think he may be ready. His command was apparently shaky this spring, but if he can strike out 7.5 per 9 IP, walk 3 per 9 IP, and get a 50% GB Rate he could end up as the AL Rookie of the Year. I've touted Hughes several times already this year, so to read more about him check out those pieces.
Hughes has not yet been added to Yahoo! leagues (quite possibly the thing I hate most about them), and if last year was any indication it could be as late as Saturday before he is available to pick up. Constantly monitor the Yahoo! free agent pool, and snag Hughes when he becomes available.
Two other top SP prospects who could have an immediate impact upon being called up are Tim Lincecum (SF) and Adam Miller (CLE). Watch for these guys as well.
One of my favorite pitching prospects, Hughes should be a top pitcher for years to come. Whether or not he will reach expectations this year is yet to be seen, but he has the minor league resume to allow us to think he may be ready. His command was apparently shaky this spring, but if he can strike out 7.5 per 9 IP, walk 3 per 9 IP, and get a 50% GB Rate he could end up as the AL Rookie of the Year. I've touted Hughes several times already this year, so to read more about him check out those pieces.
Hughes has not yet been added to Yahoo! leagues (quite possibly the thing I hate most about them), and if last year was any indication it could be as late as Saturday before he is available to pick up. Constantly monitor the Yahoo! free agent pool, and snag Hughes when he becomes available.
Two other top SP prospects who could have an immediate impact upon being called up are Tim Lincecum (SF) and Adam Miller (CLE). Watch for these guys as well.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Draft Day Strategy - Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are an interesting breed, and there are always different ideas on where they should be drafted. Some say pitching stats are volatile, and the downside for any pitcher, even a top pitcher like Johan Santana, is much greater than it is for a hitter. These people say you should wait on pitchers and grab bargains later in the draft, where you're not investing too much. Others will tell you that there are only a few elite starting pitchers, and that it's necessary to grab at least one or two early.
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Minor League Player Watch - Philip Hughes
If we were to make a list of the top prospects by Sabermetric Standards, Philip Hughes would almost certainly be the #1 SP, quite possibly the #1 prospect overall in the game. As a Mets fan it pains me to say this, but Hughes is the real deal. If he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training he should be picked up and stashed away sometime in May or June, because he will be up towards the middle of the season. Let's take a closer look at this big-time prospect.
His 10.71 K/9 sticks out like a sore thumb... but in a good way. Hughes pitched 116 innings for Double A Trenton in 2006 where he completely dominated everybody. His BB/9 was a very good 2.48. That gives Hughes a Schilling-like 4.3 K/BB. As if this wasn't enough, more than half of the balls put in play against him are Groundballs. He had a 52.4% Groundball Percentage for Trenton last year. High Ks, Low BBs, and High GBs is the trifecta for any pitcher. The only major league pitcher capable of this feat at the present time is Francisco Liriano. Felix Hernandez is on the verge of this as well.
If these numbers translate at all to the majors, Hughes could be the best waiver wire pickup of the summer. Throw in the fact that he's a Yankee, and wins are bound to come for him. Make sure he is on your team by June 1; we'll talk more about him as the time comes. Oh, and if some Yankee fan thought he or she'd be cute by drafting him, it might be a good idea to try and trade for him now. Don't overpay, but Hughes could be a top 30 SP this year, and I'm saying that pessimistically. He could certainly end up higher; he's definitely got the skills for it.
Sources:
The minor league stats came from Minor League Splits dot com
His 10.71 K/9 sticks out like a sore thumb... but in a good way. Hughes pitched 116 innings for Double A Trenton in 2006 where he completely dominated everybody. His BB/9 was a very good 2.48. That gives Hughes a Schilling-like 4.3 K/BB. As if this wasn't enough, more than half of the balls put in play against him are Groundballs. He had a 52.4% Groundball Percentage for Trenton last year. High Ks, Low BBs, and High GBs is the trifecta for any pitcher. The only major league pitcher capable of this feat at the present time is Francisco Liriano. Felix Hernandez is on the verge of this as well.
If these numbers translate at all to the majors, Hughes could be the best waiver wire pickup of the summer. Throw in the fact that he's a Yankee, and wins are bound to come for him. Make sure he is on your team by June 1; we'll talk more about him as the time comes. Oh, and if some Yankee fan thought he or she'd be cute by drafting him, it might be a good idea to try and trade for him now. Don't overpay, but Hughes could be a top 30 SP this year, and I'm saying that pessimistically. He could certainly end up higher; he's definitely got the skills for it.
Sources:
The minor league stats came from Minor League Splits dot com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
