OK. Time for the finale of this feature. We'll now look at the long-term potential of these guys. Keep in mind, I haven't done extensive research into which types of minor leaguers tend to become good major leaguers, and these rankings are very rough. They represent the order in which I, if in a keeper league, would probably keep them being forced to choose now. Without further ado...
Keeper League Rankings
1. Alex Gordon
1a. Kevin Kouzmanoff
2. Ryan Braun
2a. Edwin Encarnacion
3. Akinori Iwamura
4. Andy LaRoche
5. Mark Reynolds
Alright. I hope you enjoyed this feature today. I'll be back tomorrow with the Waiver Wire for both leagues and possibly something else.
Showing posts with label Akinori Iwamura. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Akinori Iwamura. Show all posts
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part III
Alright. Throughout the day I've analyzed some of the Top Young Third Basemen in the majors. Now, I'll rank these guys in the order I think you should pick them up if you are in need of a 3B/CI. First will be short-term rankings. Please keep in mind that rookies are the toughest players to predict because we are basing these predictions on easily compromised minor league numbers and speculation. A guy like Ryan Braun could hit for a good average if his 2007 AAA numbers carry over, but as this is somewhat unlikely, I'm not going to count on him hitting .300 for me.
Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.
Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.
One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.
2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB
Long-term rankings will come tonight!
Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.
Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.
One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.
2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB
Long-term rankings will come tonight!
Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part I
Terrible, terribly sorry for the scarcity of posts this week. I'll try to make up for it today. Right now, let's take a look at the young third basemen that are quite possibly on your waiver wire if you're in a shallow or moderately deep league. I've been asked about a few of them over the past couple days, so hopefully this post will answer all of those questions.
I'll first take a look at each player's stats in the majors this year, and then we'll see if they mesh with his minor league numbers. I'll look at 3 guys now, the rest in a couple of hours, and then provide a list ranking them later this afternoon.
Alex Gordon - Picked by many as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite back in March, Gordon has disappointed those people so far. Let's look at his prospects for the rest of the year. He has a 71% Contact rate, a 9.9% BB rate, and a 22.7% LD rate. His BB and LD stats translate to better than a .252 BABIP, although his low Contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a very high BABIP. It should increase to maybe .250 or .260, but if he keeps striking out it won't get much higher. Gordon has only hit 3 HRs so far, but each has had a True Distance over 400 ft according to HitTracker.
In 2006, he had an 80% Contact rate, 12.5% BB rate, and a 16.3% LD rate in Double A. Judging by that, there is a decent chance he could see an improved contact rate, which would help his average. I don't see his BB rate getting too much higher this year, but it is at a respectable level. He hit 29 HRs and 40 2Bs and 3Bs, and combined with the power he's shown this year I'd say Gordon is in for a power surge the rest of the year. I'd say 18-20 HRs is a possibility. The Royals lineup is better than advertised, so Gordon should get some RBIs and a decent number of Runs if he can move up a spot or two.
Akinori Iwamura - Coming off the DL next week, Iwamura was a beast in April. He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. Those numbers are bound to come down, but even if he ends up with an 11% BB rate and 22% LD rate Iwamura could hit .285-.290. He also stole three bases, and after saying preseason that he was aiming for 40, I think he could still grab 20 or 25 by year's end. He also said he wanted 20 HRs, and his only one in April went a True Distance of 414 feet.
We'll look at Iwamura's Japanese numbers since this is his first year in America. In 2006, he had a 77% Contact rate and an 11.3% BB rate. In 2005, he had a 73.5% K rate and a 10.2% BB rate. For his career he had a 75.5% Contact rate and a 9.3% BB rate. Judging by that, I'd say his Contact rate is bound to drop into the high 70s and his BB rate might finish around 9 or 10%. With those numbers (and a 22% LD rate), Iwamura could hit .275 or .280. He had 44, 30, and 32 HRs, respectively, in 2004, 2005, and 2006, so 15 or 20 might be a possibility for this year. The D'Rays lineup is pretty good, and if he bats 6th again he should get his share of RBIs. His walks and a decent back of the order will help him get a few Runs.
Kevin Kouzmanoff - Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff was an early favorite for Rookie of the Year, except in the NL. Also like Alex Gordon, he got off to a slow start. So far in 2006, he has a 75% Contact rate, 7.7% BB rate, and 20.2% LD rate. So-so, unspectacular numbers. The good news is that they can improve. The other good news is that he's got some power. He's hit 4 HRs so far (excluding his one last night), and they had True Distances of 378, 391, 429, and 447 feet. Seems like he can hit the ball a good distance.
In 244 Double AA At-Bats, Kouzmanoff had an 87.7% Contact rate, 8.3% BB rate, and an 18.4% LD rate. In 100 AAA At-Bats, he had an 89.3% Contact Rate, 8% BB rate, and a 23.3% LD rate. Judging by these, I'd say his Contact Rate should improve and his BB and LD rates seem about right. Since May 14th, he's had an 82.8% Contact Rate, so I think he is well on his way to becoming the player I expected him to be preseason. He had 15 HRs in AA and 6 HRs in AAA, so I think 20 HRs in the majors is pretty likely. The Padres lineup is good (although Brian Giles is DL bound), and if Kouzmanoff can get himself up a few spots he should be fine with RBIs and get a decent amount of Runs.
OK. In an hour or two I'll post about a few more 3B, including Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Braun. Later this afternoon, I'll post a list ranking these guys.
I'll first take a look at each player's stats in the majors this year, and then we'll see if they mesh with his minor league numbers. I'll look at 3 guys now, the rest in a couple of hours, and then provide a list ranking them later this afternoon.
Alex Gordon - Picked by many as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite back in March, Gordon has disappointed those people so far. Let's look at his prospects for the rest of the year. He has a 71% Contact rate, a 9.9% BB rate, and a 22.7% LD rate. His BB and LD stats translate to better than a .252 BABIP, although his low Contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a very high BABIP. It should increase to maybe .250 or .260, but if he keeps striking out it won't get much higher. Gordon has only hit 3 HRs so far, but each has had a True Distance over 400 ft according to HitTracker.
In 2006, he had an 80% Contact rate, 12.5% BB rate, and a 16.3% LD rate in Double A. Judging by that, there is a decent chance he could see an improved contact rate, which would help his average. I don't see his BB rate getting too much higher this year, but it is at a respectable level. He hit 29 HRs and 40 2Bs and 3Bs, and combined with the power he's shown this year I'd say Gordon is in for a power surge the rest of the year. I'd say 18-20 HRs is a possibility. The Royals lineup is better than advertised, so Gordon should get some RBIs and a decent number of Runs if he can move up a spot or two.
Akinori Iwamura - Coming off the DL next week, Iwamura was a beast in April. He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. Those numbers are bound to come down, but even if he ends up with an 11% BB rate and 22% LD rate Iwamura could hit .285-.290. He also stole three bases, and after saying preseason that he was aiming for 40, I think he could still grab 20 or 25 by year's end. He also said he wanted 20 HRs, and his only one in April went a True Distance of 414 feet.
We'll look at Iwamura's Japanese numbers since this is his first year in America. In 2006, he had a 77% Contact rate and an 11.3% BB rate. In 2005, he had a 73.5% K rate and a 10.2% BB rate. For his career he had a 75.5% Contact rate and a 9.3% BB rate. Judging by that, I'd say his Contact rate is bound to drop into the high 70s and his BB rate might finish around 9 or 10%. With those numbers (and a 22% LD rate), Iwamura could hit .275 or .280. He had 44, 30, and 32 HRs, respectively, in 2004, 2005, and 2006, so 15 or 20 might be a possibility for this year. The D'Rays lineup is pretty good, and if he bats 6th again he should get his share of RBIs. His walks and a decent back of the order will help him get a few Runs.
Kevin Kouzmanoff - Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff was an early favorite for Rookie of the Year, except in the NL. Also like Alex Gordon, he got off to a slow start. So far in 2006, he has a 75% Contact rate, 7.7% BB rate, and 20.2% LD rate. So-so, unspectacular numbers. The good news is that they can improve. The other good news is that he's got some power. He's hit 4 HRs so far (excluding his one last night), and they had True Distances of 378, 391, 429, and 447 feet. Seems like he can hit the ball a good distance.
In 244 Double AA At-Bats, Kouzmanoff had an 87.7% Contact rate, 8.3% BB rate, and an 18.4% LD rate. In 100 AAA At-Bats, he had an 89.3% Contact Rate, 8% BB rate, and a 23.3% LD rate. Judging by these, I'd say his Contact Rate should improve and his BB and LD rates seem about right. Since May 14th, he's had an 82.8% Contact Rate, so I think he is well on his way to becoming the player I expected him to be preseason. He had 15 HRs in AA and 6 HRs in AAA, so I think 20 HRs in the majors is pretty likely. The Padres lineup is good (although Brian Giles is DL bound), and if Kouzmanoff can get himself up a few spots he should be fine with RBIs and get a decent amount of Runs.
OK. In an hour or two I'll post about a few more 3B, including Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ryan Braun. Later this afternoon, I'll post a list ranking these guys.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Iwamura to Return Monday
Akinori Iwamura has been playing in rehab games recently, and could potentially come off the Disabled List on Monday. When he does, he will most likely resume his role as the Devil Rays' everyday third basemen.
"He's doing very well," manager Joe Maddon said. "He hasn't felt any pulling sensation in his side."
Iwamura was a guy I liked a lot in the beginning of the season (and even picked up in one league, although he surprisingly went on the DL the next day). He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. While the BB rate and LD% should drop, as long as they don't go too far Iwamura could hit over .300. He also had 3 SBs and could get 20 or 25 if he doesn't get injured again. He only had 1 HR, but it had a True Distance of 414 feet, according to HitTracker. He could end up with 15 HRs. The D'Rays' lineup is good, so Iwamura should also get plenty of RBIs and Runs.
If you need a 3B, Iwamura seems like he can help you in every category. Now's the time to pick him up.
"He's doing very well," manager Joe Maddon said. "He hasn't felt any pulling sensation in his side."
Iwamura was a guy I liked a lot in the beginning of the season (and even picked up in one league, although he surprisingly went on the DL the next day). He had an 82% Contact rate, 21.1% BB rate, and a 29.5% LD rate. While the BB rate and LD% should drop, as long as they don't go too far Iwamura could hit over .300. He also had 3 SBs and could get 20 or 25 if he doesn't get injured again. He only had 1 HR, but it had a True Distance of 414 feet, according to HitTracker. He could end up with 15 HRs. The D'Rays' lineup is good, so Iwamura should also get plenty of RBIs and Runs.
If you need a 3B, Iwamura seems like he can help you in every category. Now's the time to pick him up.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
Today we'll go over the American League Waiver Wire, and tomorrow we'll do the National League.
American League
Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland 'pen. The A's say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he's available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven't affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you've forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We're going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I'm still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion's void in one league, and I'll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He's got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don't get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won't be as valuable, but there's a good chance that won't happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.
Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He's a tough one to predict, but he'll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It'll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.
Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS's Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I'm not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it's at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won't hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn't have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.
Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he'll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he's a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.
American League
Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland 'pen. The A's say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he's available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven't affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you've forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We're going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I'm still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion's void in one league, and I'll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He's got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don't get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won't be as valuable, but there's a good chance that won't happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.
Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He's a tough one to predict, but he'll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It'll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.
Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS's Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I'm not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it's at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won't hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn't have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.
Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he'll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he's a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Iwamura to the DL? UPDATE: 6:00 PM
Wow. Didn't see this one coming. Apparently Akinori Iwamura is being sent to the DL. Just last night he went 2-3 with an RBI and 3 Rs, and just this morning I touted him as a solid pickup. I also picked him up last night in one of my leagues after another owner dropped him a couple of days ago. Strange. Manager Joe Maddon says he needs a couple of weeks off due to a strained oblique.
If you have a DL spot open (I don't with Felix and Dotel occupying them), stash him there. If you have a DL spot open and his owner drops him, pick him up and stash him. If you own him and don't have a DL spot open but have a strong bench, leave him there. If you are in desperate need of a replacement, you have no choice but to drop him there.
There is no guarantee he will continue to perform this way for the rest of the year (we're only judging him based on a three week sample size now), so it might not be a devastating move dropping him. But if he ends up putting up a line like .300/20/80/90/25 you might regret dropping him. Tough decision; it comes down to the depth of your league and the depth of your team.
UPDATE: It is now being said that Iwamura will miss 4-6 weeks. Feel free to drop him now if it was a shaky call for you this afternoon. I did in my 10-team league and expect him to sit there for a while.
If you have a DL spot open (I don't with Felix and Dotel occupying them), stash him there. If you have a DL spot open and his owner drops him, pick him up and stash him. If you own him and don't have a DL spot open but have a strong bench, leave him there. If you are in desperate need of a replacement, you have no choice but to drop him there.
There is no guarantee he will continue to perform this way for the rest of the year (we're only judging him based on a three week sample size now), so it might not be a devastating move dropping him. But if he ends up putting up a line like .300/20/80/90/25 you might regret dropping him. Tough decision; it comes down to the depth of your league and the depth of your team.
UPDATE: It is now being said that Iwamura will miss 4-6 weeks. Feel free to drop him now if it was a shaky call for you this afternoon. I did in my 10-team league and expect him to sit there for a while.
Waiver Wire: American League
Again everyone, sorry this is late. In two weeks this sort of thing won't happen anymore. Here we go!
American League
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.
Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
American League
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - To steal a page out of Dick Vitale's book, this Diaper Dandy is a must pickup in nearly all leagues. I've mentioned him many times, and his opportunity has come. Still hasn't been added to Yahoo's database, but when he is make sure you're right there to take him
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8-team leagues and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-Only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Mentioned last week as a guy who could easily step back into the closer's role with an Eric Gagne injury. A week later and he has already done so. Should be owned all year in deep leagues because Gagne is prone to go down at any time.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Mentioned last week here, Iwamura is still only owned in 58% of ESPN leagues. Has begun to strike out a bit more, but an 83% Contact and 28% LD Rate is quite good.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Jamie Shields | TB | SP - A guy I had pretty high on my preseason Starting Pitcher rankings, Shields is pitching better than I expected. I'm not sure if he can keep it up, but even if he pitches the way he did last year he's a guy who should be owned in most leagues. Might have already been picked up after a 10 K performance the other night.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I meant to talk about him last week but forgot. Played a game at SS last week that makes him eligible there in some leagues. Off to a slow start but has the talent to heat up at any time. He won't hit for a great BA but should put up some power numbers. His 4% BB rate is something to be concerned with. If you own him, keep him benched for a while.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Numbers look much different than in previous years, Gaudin may see a sharp regression in the near future. Until he does though, he is worth owning to see if he has made some adjustments. His peripherals for this year are very good, but could easily fall off a cliff at anytime. High risk pickup
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Might just be a product of a small sample size, but Blanton is now striking out over 7 batters per 9 IP. His BB/9 is 2.25. His GB Percentage is higher than in previous years and will probably come down, but if his K/BB stays where it is Blanton should be somewhat useful.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Mike Lowell | BOS | 3B - Being aided by an extremely low K rate that will rise. Hitting a low number of LDs. Should even out to his usual self. 18-20 HRs is still likely. There are better options at 3B.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
John Buck | KC | C - Won't play full-time. Manager Buddy Bell doesn't care a ton about the offense of his catcher. "Their primary job is the way they handle pitchers," Bell said. "Both of them are doing a good job there. That’s my first consideration. Some guys really like throwing to Jason, and some guys really like throwing to John."
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-catcher 12 and 14-team leagues. Should not be owned in 1-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be considered in very deep 1-catcher 14 team leagues.
Travis Buck | OAK | OF - Extreme stats. High BB rate. High K rate. High LD Rate. None will stay where they are and it is difficult to tell where they will end up. Risky pick. You could end up dropping him in a few weeks in a lot of leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 team leagues and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL only leagues. If you want to take a risk make these recommendations more aggresive.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Owned in just .2% of ESPN leagues, this number should be higher. Batista is solid but unspectacular. If he can keep his K/9 over 6 and his BB/9 under 3 and get GB Percentage up to its career mark of 51% he could be worth owning for pitching depth. Has been getting unlucky this year, but his peripherals have some possibility of getting worse.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Tim Wakefield | MIN | SP - Same peripherals as always, Wakefield is just getting lucky. Value the same as you did on Opening Day.
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | SP - Coming off the DL might be available in your league. Value him as you did on Opening Day... very low. Don't bother picking him up
Recommendation: Not worth owning except in deep leagues.
Ramon Ortiz | MIN | SP - Quite possibly owned in your league, Ortiz is a guy I wouldn't pick up myself. Has a very low K rate, making an incredibly low ERA and WHIP essential for him to have any value. His K rate should rise, but his BB rate should as well. Not a guy I see as able to sustain this pace.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
OK. While it would be nice to think we'll never need to use the waiver wire throughout the season, that we have drafted a perfect team, that is simply not the case. Every fantasy champion uses the waiver wire at some point during the season, and the guys who win usually are successful in doing so. Each week I will give you a list of players, broken down by league, who you should either consider picking up or avoiding. This does not mean that you should pick up every player mentioned, just that if it suits the needs of your team this player may be a good choice.
You will usually see this on Saturday or Sunday, but as I was busy this weekend it is a little late.
American League
Jason Frasor | TOR | CL - If Frasor is still available in your league and you need closer help, pick him up immediately. Ryan's injury may be serious, and at the very least Frasor should pick Toronto's saves for the next two weeks. He's a good pitcher and should keep the job for the remainder of Ryan's DL stay, even if it is longer than a couple weeks.
UPDATE: Ryan is said to be out 4-6 weeks. Make Frasor your first Waiver Wire priority this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Al Reyes | TB | CL - If he's still out there, grab him. He doesn't seem to have much competition and has solid enough career numbers to avoid an implosion. 20% GB Percentage in 2007 is a bit unsettling, but it is still very early and we are looking at a small sample size.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Joakim Soria | KC | CL - If he is still available, Soria is another guy who should have a job closing for at least another couple of weeks. Won't get as many save opps as Frasor or Owens, but if you need saves Soria can get you a few on the cheap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Iwamura has played higher than most expected him to. I had no expectations going into the season as I haven't done any research on the Japanese transition to America, but Iwamura is certainly playing well. His BA will drop, but an 82% Contact Percentage is pretty good. He also has a 30% LD Percentage, which will also drop, but he could hit in the .285 range if it settles around 21%. His 24% Walk Percentage is incredible as well. His true value comes from his steals as a Third Basemen. Preseason his goal was 40, which may be a little unrealistic, but 25 SBs out of your 3B or CI is definitely a plus.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
David DeJesus | KC | OF - Always a subjective favorite of mine, his objective numbers aren't bad either. 86% Contact Rate is higher than past years, but his 21.4% LD Percentage is good. A 9.3% BB percentage also helps. He also should hit more HRs than last year; he's should be good for at least 15. He's got some speed, so 10 or 15 SBs isn't out of the question, although he's never reached either of those marks before. Royals lineup hurts his value, but he could be worthy of a bench spot depending on your team.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 10-team leagues, and should be owned in 12 and 14 team formats. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.
Mark Teahen | KC | 3B/OF - Wow, 3 Kansas City players in one week? We may not see this again. If Teahen has been dropped in your league, you may want to consider picking him up. While not as good as a similar valued, young, struggling 3B like Edwin Encarnacion, Teahen is a decent player. He has a great BB Percentage this year and it was above average last year, but a GB Percentage under 10 isn't so good. He should pick it up, but even his 15.9% of last year wasn't very good. His 60% Contact Rate is terrible, but if he gets it to his 2006 level of 78% he could be a serviceable backup. His power is due for a regression, but as a backup 3B you could do worse in deeper leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Worth a look in 10-team and should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Aaron Hill | TOR | MI - Hill is getting lucky. A .405 BABIP won't stick for anybody, much less Aaron Hill. He's sporting the lowest Contact Percentage and LD Percentage of his career, but if he can them both to career averages he could be a decent reserve MI in deep leagues the rest of the way. Avoid the temptation to take him in shallow leagues, as a .290 average and 5 HRs is what you should expect out of him
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep 12 team leagues, should probably be owned in 14 team leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | RP - Gagne hasn't been healthy in two years and could go down at any time, so stashing Otsuka away in leagues where teams hold onto middle relievers might be a good idea. If he is on your team you might as well play him as he will get you a few extra Ks and have a small impact on ERA and WHIP. Won't help a lot, but won't hurt to play him while you wait out Gagne.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Another subjective favorite of mine, Dan Johnson had very good objective numbers in 2005, and is expected back from the DL early next month. Hopefully his vision correction surgery will help him revert to 2005 form. If he does he could be a steal off the Waiver Wire for many teams.
Recommendation: Monitor in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues. Monitor in all AL-only leagues.
Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Still in the minors, Miller is a guy to watch. He had fantastic numbers in the minors last year with high Ks, low BBs, and amazing GB numbers. If he gets the call anytime soon be sure to snatch him.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Another guy still in the minors, Hughes boasts similar minor league numbers to Miller. He probably won't be called up right now, even with Mussina, Pavano, and Wang on the DL, but if the Yankees pull a fast one on us jump on him. He - like Miller - should be up later in the year, so continually monitor the Yanks rotation.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
You will usually see this on Saturday or Sunday, but as I was busy this weekend it is a little late.
American League
Jason Frasor | TOR | CL - If Frasor is still available in your league and you need closer help, pick him up immediately. Ryan's injury may be serious, and at the very least Frasor should pick Toronto's saves for the next two weeks. He's a good pitcher and should keep the job for the remainder of Ryan's DL stay, even if it is longer than a couple weeks.
UPDATE: Ryan is said to be out 4-6 weeks. Make Frasor your first Waiver Wire priority this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Al Reyes | TB | CL - If he's still out there, grab him. He doesn't seem to have much competition and has solid enough career numbers to avoid an implosion. 20% GB Percentage in 2007 is a bit unsettling, but it is still very early and we are looking at a small sample size.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Joakim Soria | KC | CL - If he is still available, Soria is another guy who should have a job closing for at least another couple of weeks. Won't get as many save opps as Frasor or Owens, but if you need saves Soria can get you a few on the cheap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Iwamura has played higher than most expected him to. I had no expectations going into the season as I haven't done any research on the Japanese transition to America, but Iwamura is certainly playing well. His BA will drop, but an 82% Contact Percentage is pretty good. He also has a 30% LD Percentage, which will also drop, but he could hit in the .285 range if it settles around 21%. His 24% Walk Percentage is incredible as well. His true value comes from his steals as a Third Basemen. Preseason his goal was 40, which may be a little unrealistic, but 25 SBs out of your 3B or CI is definitely a plus.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
David DeJesus | KC | OF - Always a subjective favorite of mine, his objective numbers aren't bad either. 86% Contact Rate is higher than past years, but his 21.4% LD Percentage is good. A 9.3% BB percentage also helps. He also should hit more HRs than last year; he's should be good for at least 15. He's got some speed, so 10 or 15 SBs isn't out of the question, although he's never reached either of those marks before. Royals lineup hurts his value, but he could be worthy of a bench spot depending on your team.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 10-team leagues, and should be owned in 12 and 14 team formats. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.
Mark Teahen | KC | 3B/OF - Wow, 3 Kansas City players in one week? We may not see this again. If Teahen has been dropped in your league, you may want to consider picking him up. While not as good as a similar valued, young, struggling 3B like Edwin Encarnacion, Teahen is a decent player. He has a great BB Percentage this year and it was above average last year, but a GB Percentage under 10 isn't so good. He should pick it up, but even his 15.9% of last year wasn't very good. His 60% Contact Rate is terrible, but if he gets it to his 2006 level of 78% he could be a serviceable backup. His power is due for a regression, but as a backup 3B you could do worse in deeper leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Worth a look in 10-team and should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Aaron Hill | TOR | MI - Hill is getting lucky. A .405 BABIP won't stick for anybody, much less Aaron Hill. He's sporting the lowest Contact Percentage and LD Percentage of his career, but if he can them both to career averages he could be a decent reserve MI in deep leagues the rest of the way. Avoid the temptation to take him in shallow leagues, as a .290 average and 5 HRs is what you should expect out of him
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep 12 team leagues, should probably be owned in 14 team leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | RP - Gagne hasn't been healthy in two years and could go down at any time, so stashing Otsuka away in leagues where teams hold onto middle relievers might be a good idea. If he is on your team you might as well play him as he will get you a few extra Ks and have a small impact on ERA and WHIP. Won't help a lot, but won't hurt to play him while you wait out Gagne.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Another subjective favorite of mine, Dan Johnson had very good objective numbers in 2005, and is expected back from the DL early next month. Hopefully his vision correction surgery will help him revert to 2005 form. If he does he could be a steal off the Waiver Wire for many teams.
Recommendation: Monitor in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues. Monitor in all AL-only leagues.
Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Still in the minors, Miller is a guy to watch. He had fantastic numbers in the minors last year with high Ks, low BBs, and amazing GB numbers. If he gets the call anytime soon be sure to snatch him.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Another guy still in the minors, Hughes boasts similar minor league numbers to Miller. He probably won't be called up right now, even with Mussina, Pavano, and Wang on the DL, but if the Yankees pull a fast one on us jump on him. He - like Miller - should be up later in the year, so continually monitor the Yanks rotation.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
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