OK. Time for the finale of this feature. We'll now look at the long-term potential of these guys. Keep in mind, I haven't done extensive research into which types of minor leaguers tend to become good major leaguers, and these rankings are very rough. They represent the order in which I, if in a keeper league, would probably keep them being forced to choose now. Without further ado...
Keeper League Rankings
1. Alex Gordon
1a. Kevin Kouzmanoff
2. Ryan Braun
2a. Edwin Encarnacion
3. Akinori Iwamura
4. Andy LaRoche
5. Mark Reynolds
Alright. I hope you enjoyed this feature today. I'll be back tomorrow with the Waiver Wire for both leagues and possibly something else.
Showing posts with label Andy LaRoche. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andy LaRoche. Show all posts
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part III
Alright. Throughout the day I've analyzed some of the Top Young Third Basemen in the majors. Now, I'll rank these guys in the order I think you should pick them up if you are in need of a 3B/CI. First will be short-term rankings. Please keep in mind that rookies are the toughest players to predict because we are basing these predictions on easily compromised minor league numbers and speculation. A guy like Ryan Braun could hit for a good average if his 2007 AAA numbers carry over, but as this is somewhat unlikely, I'm not going to count on him hitting .300 for me.
Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.
Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.
One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.
2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB
Long-term rankings will come tonight!
Alongside each player I've listed stats. These are not scientifically created. They came off the top of my head, and they are only there to compare the different skills of the different players. If your team needs steals, you'd be better off taking Iwamura or Gordon or Braun. If you need power and can afford a slightly lower BA, Reynolds might be your man. The numbers are for comparative purposes only, so please do not hold me to them.
Another note: these rankings are very flexible. A lot of the value of these guys comes in their actually playing (in the case of Encarnacion and Reynolds) and in their spot in the order. Most of these guys are batting at the back of their team's order, and if they were to be moved up their RBIs and Runs would change accordingly.
One more thing. After I plopped down the raw numbers next to each player, I realized that none are perfect. Some are strong in only one category, some two. But none can help you in all three, so the order I have them in will change based on every team's need. Pick up the one that suits your team.
2007 Rankings
Akinori Iwamura | .277 | 18 HR | 22 SB
Edwin Encarnacion | .280 | 20 HR | 8 SB
Alex Gordon | .263 | 20 HR | 20 SB
Ryan Braun | .273 | 15 HR | 15 SBs
Kevin Kouzmanoff | .283 | 22 HR | 3 SB
Mark Reynolds | .263 | 25 HR | 3 SB
Andy LaRoche | .280 | 12 HR | 5 SB
Long-term rankings will come tonight!
Ranking the Young Third Basemen: Part II
Alright, I'm back to look at another set of Young 3B that might be on your Waiver Wire. We'll get right to it.
Edwin Encarnacion - I've talked about Edwin a lot over the past month or so. In 2007, so far, Edwin has an 82.8% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 20.8% LD rate. In 2006, he had an 80.8% Contact rate, a 9.2% BB rate, and a 21.1% LD rate in 406 ABs. In 2005, he had a 71.6% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 25.2% LD rate in 211 ABs. His LD and BB rates might improve just a bit, and his Contact rate should remain steady. These numbers don't translate to a .224 BA, and given an opportunity he should turn things around. A .280 BA seems like a good estimate.
He's only hit 1 HR so far in 2007, but it went a True Distance of 402 feet. In 2006, he hit 8 of his 15 HRs past 400 feet. According to HitTracker, he had a 4.00 No Doubt-to-Just Enough ratio, meaning he was a good bet to improve his HR total. I still see 30 HR power out of Edwin eventually, and if he can play fulltime once Josh Hamilton returns (which might be unlikely) he could be good for 20-25 HRs this year. His FB% is up to 42.7% and his GB% is down to 36.5%.
The Reds lineup is good, but it would be better if it was better managed. If he plays and hits in the middle of the order, Edwin should get plenty of RBIs and Runs, but we're looking at a big IF. I mean, the Reds were batting Adam Dunn 6th behind Jeff Conine and Alex Gonzalez some games and are giving Nick Hopper and Juan Castro far too many ABs.
Mark Reynolds - Hasn't been in the majors long, but has made a major splash in the time he has been. So far, he has a 81.1% Contact rate, a 7.5% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate in 37 ABs. He's hit 3 HRs so far, and they've gone True Distances of 371, 405, and a whopping 459 feet.
Here are his Minor League numbers across several levels:
2005 | Low-A | 431 ABs | 77.4% Contact | 7.4% BB | 13.7% LD | 19 HR
2006 | High-A | 273 ABs | 77.6% Contact | 12.7% BB | 17.2% LD | 23 HR
2006 | Double A | 114 ABs | 71.9% Contact | 8.7% BB | 14.5% LD | 8 HR
2007 | Triple A | 134 ABs | 76.1% Contact | 12.9% BB | 20.6% LD | 6 HR
We see that his Major League numbers this year don't seem to be entirely sustainable. His Contact rate should fall to perhaps 75%, but his BB rate might stay level and his LD% might only drop a percentage point. His power is legit, and if he were to be a starter for the rest of the season he could get up to 25 HRs. His .519 BABIP will drop, as will his .459 BA, and it should settle somewhere near .260-.265. The Dan Uggla comparisons people draw seem to be pretty accurate.
The D'Backs lineup is very good, so he will get plenty of RBIs and Runs, especially if he keeps batting 4th and 5th. That they are comfortable hitting him there indicates they would like find him ABs even after Chad Tracy gets back. That may prove, though, with all of the quality hitters in their lineup. He might end up as a 3-4 game per week guy if they keep him in the majors.
Ryan Braun - Braun isn't a guy I was able to buy into the hype of until this year (to a certain extent). A highly touted prospect of the Brewers, Braun's call up was announced on Thursday. Let's first look at his minor league numbers.
2005 | Low-A | 152 ABs | 79.3% Contact | 5.5% BB | 25.6% LD | 8 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | High-A | 226 ABs | 79% Contact | 8.9% BB | 11.6% LD | 7 HRs | 14 SBs
2006 | Double A | 231 ABs | 78% Contact | 82.% BB | 12.3% LD | 15 HRs | 12 SBs
2007 | Triple A | 109 ABs | 90.8% Contact | 10.7% BB | 22.2% LD | 9 HRs | 4 SBs
We see that up until 2007, Braun's numbers were very mediocre. Where did this spike come from in 2007? Did he change something? Did he just get lucky? And most importantly, how will these numbers translate to the majors? Honestly, it's a tough call. His Contact rate could be anywhere from 75% to 90%. His BB rate could be anywhere from 5% to 8%. His LD rate (yikes) could be anywhere from 12% to 23%. Let's say that he settles at around this level: 80% Contact, 7% BB, and 18% LD. That would mean a BA around .270-.275. He might be able to hit dozen HRs the rest of the way, but he also has a little bit of speed. He could end up with 12-15 SBs, which is where a lot of his value comes from. Not many third baggers can steal 15 bases.
The Brewers lineup is good. Braun batted second last night, a spot that would provide a good numbers of runs and a fair number of RBIs.
Andy LaRoche - The Dodgers' top 3B prospect was called up on May 6 and has been a flop thus far. He's hitting with a 89.2% Contact rate, a 29.2% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate. Despite these good numbers, he has just a .233 BABIP and a .206 BA. He has yet to hit a HR. These numbers will certainly improve.
Here are his minor league numbers:
2005 | High-A | 249 ABs | 84.7% Contact | 7.1% BB | 21 HRs | 6 SBs
2005 | Double A | 227 ABs | 76.2% Contact | 12.4% BB | 9 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | Double A | 230 ABs | 86.1% Contact | 15.1% BB | 9 HRs | 6 SBs
2006 | Triple A | 202 ABs | 84.2% Contact | 11.0% BB | 10 HRs | 3 SBs
In 2007, he had a 85.7% Contact rate, a 10.1% BB rate, and a 12.9% LD rate. He also hit 3 HRs in 98 ABs. I expect LaRoche to definitely pick up the pace shortly. His Contact rate might drop to 84%, and his BB rate will certainly drop, possibly to 9-10%. We don't have much to base his LD rate on (not available for 2005 and 2006 on MinorLeagueSplits.com), but 19% is modest enough where it could remain stable. Those numbers could give LaRoche a .275-.280 BA. He also might be good for 12 HRs and 5 SBs. He's been hitting between 6th and 9th in the Dodgers lineup, so RBIs and Runs won't be as plentiful if he continues to hit towards the back. The Dodgers lineup is deep though, and even batting 7th or 8th should give LaRoche a decent number of RBIs.
And that's it. We'll rank these guys a little bit later based on, as one reader requested, short-term and long-term potential.
Edwin Encarnacion - I've talked about Edwin a lot over the past month or so. In 2007, so far, Edwin has an 82.8% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 20.8% LD rate. In 2006, he had an 80.8% Contact rate, a 9.2% BB rate, and a 21.1% LD rate in 406 ABs. In 2005, he had a 71.6% Contact rate, 8.7% BB rate, and a 25.2% LD rate in 211 ABs. His LD and BB rates might improve just a bit, and his Contact rate should remain steady. These numbers don't translate to a .224 BA, and given an opportunity he should turn things around. A .280 BA seems like a good estimate.
He's only hit 1 HR so far in 2007, but it went a True Distance of 402 feet. In 2006, he hit 8 of his 15 HRs past 400 feet. According to HitTracker, he had a 4.00 No Doubt-to-Just Enough ratio, meaning he was a good bet to improve his HR total. I still see 30 HR power out of Edwin eventually, and if he can play fulltime once Josh Hamilton returns (which might be unlikely) he could be good for 20-25 HRs this year. His FB% is up to 42.7% and his GB% is down to 36.5%.
The Reds lineup is good, but it would be better if it was better managed. If he plays and hits in the middle of the order, Edwin should get plenty of RBIs and Runs, but we're looking at a big IF. I mean, the Reds were batting Adam Dunn 6th behind Jeff Conine and Alex Gonzalez some games and are giving Nick Hopper and Juan Castro far too many ABs.
Mark Reynolds - Hasn't been in the majors long, but has made a major splash in the time he has been. So far, he has a 81.1% Contact rate, a 7.5% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate in 37 ABs. He's hit 3 HRs so far, and they've gone True Distances of 371, 405, and a whopping 459 feet.
Here are his Minor League numbers across several levels:
2005 | Low-A | 431 ABs | 77.4% Contact | 7.4% BB | 13.7% LD | 19 HR
2006 | High-A | 273 ABs | 77.6% Contact | 12.7% BB | 17.2% LD | 23 HR
2006 | Double A | 114 ABs | 71.9% Contact | 8.7% BB | 14.5% LD | 8 HR
2007 | Triple A | 134 ABs | 76.1% Contact | 12.9% BB | 20.6% LD | 6 HR
We see that his Major League numbers this year don't seem to be entirely sustainable. His Contact rate should fall to perhaps 75%, but his BB rate might stay level and his LD% might only drop a percentage point. His power is legit, and if he were to be a starter for the rest of the season he could get up to 25 HRs. His .519 BABIP will drop, as will his .459 BA, and it should settle somewhere near .260-.265. The Dan Uggla comparisons people draw seem to be pretty accurate.
The D'Backs lineup is very good, so he will get plenty of RBIs and Runs, especially if he keeps batting 4th and 5th. That they are comfortable hitting him there indicates they would like find him ABs even after Chad Tracy gets back. That may prove, though, with all of the quality hitters in their lineup. He might end up as a 3-4 game per week guy if they keep him in the majors.
Ryan Braun - Braun isn't a guy I was able to buy into the hype of until this year (to a certain extent). A highly touted prospect of the Brewers, Braun's call up was announced on Thursday. Let's first look at his minor league numbers.
2005 | Low-A | 152 ABs | 79.3% Contact | 5.5% BB | 25.6% LD | 8 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | High-A | 226 ABs | 79% Contact | 8.9% BB | 11.6% LD | 7 HRs | 14 SBs
2006 | Double A | 231 ABs | 78% Contact | 82.% BB | 12.3% LD | 15 HRs | 12 SBs
2007 | Triple A | 109 ABs | 90.8% Contact | 10.7% BB | 22.2% LD | 9 HRs | 4 SBs
We see that up until 2007, Braun's numbers were very mediocre. Where did this spike come from in 2007? Did he change something? Did he just get lucky? And most importantly, how will these numbers translate to the majors? Honestly, it's a tough call. His Contact rate could be anywhere from 75% to 90%. His BB rate could be anywhere from 5% to 8%. His LD rate (yikes) could be anywhere from 12% to 23%. Let's say that he settles at around this level: 80% Contact, 7% BB, and 18% LD. That would mean a BA around .270-.275. He might be able to hit dozen HRs the rest of the way, but he also has a little bit of speed. He could end up with 12-15 SBs, which is where a lot of his value comes from. Not many third baggers can steal 15 bases.
The Brewers lineup is good. Braun batted second last night, a spot that would provide a good numbers of runs and a fair number of RBIs.
Andy LaRoche - The Dodgers' top 3B prospect was called up on May 6 and has been a flop thus far. He's hitting with a 89.2% Contact rate, a 29.2% BB rate, and a 19.4% LD rate. Despite these good numbers, he has just a .233 BABIP and a .206 BA. He has yet to hit a HR. These numbers will certainly improve.
Here are his minor league numbers:
2005 | High-A | 249 ABs | 84.7% Contact | 7.1% BB | 21 HRs | 6 SBs
2005 | Double A | 227 ABs | 76.2% Contact | 12.4% BB | 9 HRs | 2 SBs
2006 | Double A | 230 ABs | 86.1% Contact | 15.1% BB | 9 HRs | 6 SBs
2006 | Triple A | 202 ABs | 84.2% Contact | 11.0% BB | 10 HRs | 3 SBs
In 2007, he had a 85.7% Contact rate, a 10.1% BB rate, and a 12.9% LD rate. He also hit 3 HRs in 98 ABs. I expect LaRoche to definitely pick up the pace shortly. His Contact rate might drop to 84%, and his BB rate will certainly drop, possibly to 9-10%. We don't have much to base his LD rate on (not available for 2005 and 2006 on MinorLeagueSplits.com), but 19% is modest enough where it could remain stable. Those numbers could give LaRoche a .275-.280 BA. He also might be good for 12 HRs and 5 SBs. He's been hitting between 6th and 9th in the Dodgers lineup, so RBIs and Runs won't be as plentiful if he continues to hit towards the back. The Dodgers lineup is deep though, and even batting 7th or 8th should give LaRoche a decent number of RBIs.
And that's it. We'll rank these guys a little bit later based on, as one reader requested, short-term and long-term potential.
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Waiver Wire - National League
Alright, National League Waiver Wire day. Let's get right to it.
National League
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - I've talked about him already, but chances are he was dropped in your league. Pick him up and hope he gets either gets called back up or traded (the more likely scenario) soon. If he doesn't within a couple of weeks, you can drop him and pick him up again in July as the trade deadline approaches.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Claudio Vargas | MIL | SP - 34% GB rate isn't very good, but his combination of 9.79 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9 is. He has never had a K/9 higher than 6.77 in his career, but if it keeps up he'll be useful in most leagues. Play him until you see him stop K-ing guys.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he shows otherwise. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he shows otherwise.
Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - Generally considered one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, LaRoche seems to have control of the Dodger 3B job for now. He had an 84% Contact Rate in AAA last year, and had an 86% rate before his call-up this year. He had 19 HRs between AA and AAA in 2006. He has an 87% Contact Rate so far with the Dodgers and an insane 34.8% BB rate. He had an 11% BB rate in AAA last year, so his patience/selectivity is quite good. Not sure how the power will translate, but he should help you with Batting Average and he's hitting in a good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Mark Hendrickson | LAD | SP - .197 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Hendrickson, although his peripheral are better than I expected. His line: 7.24 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 53.8% GB. Definitely worthy of a roster spot, just not his 1.95 ERA. His K and GB rates are unlike his career numbers, so a decline is definitely possible. Use him until this happens.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.
Jason Marquis | LAD | SP - .202 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Marquis as well, but he doesn't have the peripherals to be worth a roster spot except in the deepest leagues. His line: 4.53 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 47.6% GB. Very similar to his career numbers, so expect a steep decline for Marquis.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest NL-only leagues.
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Had me worried after his first start, but his start against the Rockies at Coors has settled me down a bit. His BB rate wasn't great in the minors, and we knew he'd need to work on his control to be successful in the majors this year. His BB/9 stands at 4.76, but he only walked one batter in 7 IP against the Rockies. His 8.74 K/9 is quite good and should hold up this year. Only had a 33% GB rate in his first game, but it has now jumped to 48.5%. Worth a spot in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 8 team and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Some thought he might be starting to today, but that is not the case. His 4.13 BB/9 this year is terrible, and his K/9 has dropped to 5.79. Don't bother stashing Bailey as I doubt he will have much value this year unless he can somehow find some control, which he hasn't shown an abundance of in the minors yet.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be stashed in deep NL-only leagues.
Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - You wouldn't expect his K/BB to increase so much after being moved out of the bullpen, but for now Belisle is worth using. Like the other guys, his peripherals could worsen at any time, but until then he can be used.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Randy Wolf | LAD | SP - Ridiculous 10.31 K/9 will have to drop, but his 2.44 BB/9 seems to be for real. Once his K/9 drops back to around 6 his low GB rate will only allow him to be an above average pitcher. Until then, ride him. .343 BABIP is keeping him under the radar for now.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP - Much improved numbers from last year, it's difficult to tell if it will last. There seems to be a lot of guys like this so far. Like all of them, play Wandy until he proves otherwise. His 46% GB rate makes him a better bet than a few of the others once their K rates decline.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Kyle Lohse | CIN | SP - Take Lohse's best K/9 of his career before 2007 and his best BB/9 of his career before 2007 and you have his 2007 line. Seems pretty legit, although he has little room for error. His terrible 32.5% GB is the lowest of his career, and there's a good chance it'll improve. Probably the best bet among these, normally considered below average-to-average, SPs to continue putting up his peripherals. Worth a roster spot.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Shawn Hill | WAS | SP - 5.94 K/9 is much better than expected, and his amazing 58.5% GB rate is exactly what I expected. He's keeping his BB/9 low, and if he can keep his K rate up he only becomes more valuable. Will struggle to pick up wins with the Nationals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
UPDATE: Hill will likely be placed on the DL, so you will probably want to wait if you were planning on picking him up.
Anthony Reyes | STL | SP - Shows a stable K rate, but has improved his control to drop his BB/9 below 3. Also improved his GB rate, which might not last. Until then, Reyes has some value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Jeff Suppan | MIL | SP - K/9 below 5 prevents him from having value in a lot of leagues, and his BB/9 is sure to increase to career levels shortly. GB rate will improve as well, but don't change your preseason projections of Suppan.
Recommendation: Should be owned in only deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter, although his BB rate has inexplicably dropped this year. I expect it to improve with time. Not much power, but hitting in the heart of a decent lineup should provide some RBIs and Runs. Should be owned on more than the 11.4% of ESPN teams he has a spot on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Talked about a little bit a few days ago. Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed. Good lineup, but is hitting towards the bottom of it.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Coming off the DL by Wednesday and will start immediately. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Alex Gonzalez | CIN | SS - Hit Tracker shows that Gonzalez's 2007 power seems legit. In 2006 he probably should have hit at least 12 HRs in his 388 ABs, and with 500 this year 15-20 is a possibility. Has had a Contact Rate in the low 80s the past three years, and his LD rate is good. 6.1% BB rate could be better, but a decent BA is also likely out of Gonzalez. Poor Reds management has Gonzalez hitting around in the 5th and 6th spots, which helps his value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.
Juan Encarnacion | STL | OF - Coming off the DL soon, Encarnacion could be valuable as a reserve OF. 5.1% BB rate wasn't very good last year, but his 2004 and 2005 level of 7% wasn't bad. Shows a decent Contact Rate in the low 80s and a LD rate above 20%, so he shouldn't have a problem putting up a decent BA. He should have hit more HRs last year, possibly as many as 25. That rate could be expected this year. Will enter a good Cards lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
National League
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - I've talked about him already, but chances are he was dropped in your league. Pick him up and hope he gets either gets called back up or traded (the more likely scenario) soon. If he doesn't within a couple of weeks, you can drop him and pick him up again in July as the trade deadline approaches.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Claudio Vargas | MIL | SP - 34% GB rate isn't very good, but his combination of 9.79 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9 is. He has never had a K/9 higher than 6.77 in his career, but if it keeps up he'll be useful in most leagues. Play him until you see him stop K-ing guys.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he shows otherwise. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he shows otherwise.
Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - Generally considered one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, LaRoche seems to have control of the Dodger 3B job for now. He had an 84% Contact Rate in AAA last year, and had an 86% rate before his call-up this year. He had 19 HRs between AA and AAA in 2006. He has an 87% Contact Rate so far with the Dodgers and an insane 34.8% BB rate. He had an 11% BB rate in AAA last year, so his patience/selectivity is quite good. Not sure how the power will translate, but he should help you with Batting Average and he's hitting in a good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Mark Hendrickson | LAD | SP - .197 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Hendrickson, although his peripheral are better than I expected. His line: 7.24 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 53.8% GB. Definitely worthy of a roster spot, just not his 1.95 ERA. His K and GB rates are unlike his career numbers, so a decline is definitely possible. Use him until this happens.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.
Jason Marquis | LAD | SP - .202 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Marquis as well, but he doesn't have the peripherals to be worth a roster spot except in the deepest leagues. His line: 4.53 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 47.6% GB. Very similar to his career numbers, so expect a steep decline for Marquis.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest NL-only leagues.
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Had me worried after his first start, but his start against the Rockies at Coors has settled me down a bit. His BB rate wasn't great in the minors, and we knew he'd need to work on his control to be successful in the majors this year. His BB/9 stands at 4.76, but he only walked one batter in 7 IP against the Rockies. His 8.74 K/9 is quite good and should hold up this year. Only had a 33% GB rate in his first game, but it has now jumped to 48.5%. Worth a spot in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 8 team and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Some thought he might be starting to today, but that is not the case. His 4.13 BB/9 this year is terrible, and his K/9 has dropped to 5.79. Don't bother stashing Bailey as I doubt he will have much value this year unless he can somehow find some control, which he hasn't shown an abundance of in the minors yet.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be stashed in deep NL-only leagues.
Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - You wouldn't expect his K/BB to increase so much after being moved out of the bullpen, but for now Belisle is worth using. Like the other guys, his peripherals could worsen at any time, but until then he can be used.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Randy Wolf | LAD | SP - Ridiculous 10.31 K/9 will have to drop, but his 2.44 BB/9 seems to be for real. Once his K/9 drops back to around 6 his low GB rate will only allow him to be an above average pitcher. Until then, ride him. .343 BABIP is keeping him under the radar for now.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP - Much improved numbers from last year, it's difficult to tell if it will last. There seems to be a lot of guys like this so far. Like all of them, play Wandy until he proves otherwise. His 46% GB rate makes him a better bet than a few of the others once their K rates decline.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Kyle Lohse | CIN | SP - Take Lohse's best K/9 of his career before 2007 and his best BB/9 of his career before 2007 and you have his 2007 line. Seems pretty legit, although he has little room for error. His terrible 32.5% GB is the lowest of his career, and there's a good chance it'll improve. Probably the best bet among these, normally considered below average-to-average, SPs to continue putting up his peripherals. Worth a roster spot.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
Shawn Hill | WAS | SP - 5.94 K/9 is much better than expected, and his amazing 58.5% GB rate is exactly what I expected. He's keeping his BB/9 low, and if he can keep his K rate up he only becomes more valuable. Will struggle to pick up wins with the Nationals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
UPDATE: Hill will likely be placed on the DL, so you will probably want to wait if you were planning on picking him up.
Anthony Reyes | STL | SP - Shows a stable K rate, but has improved his control to drop his BB/9 below 3. Also improved his GB rate, which might not last. Until then, Reyes has some value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Jeff Suppan | MIL | SP - K/9 below 5 prevents him from having value in a lot of leagues, and his BB/9 is sure to increase to career levels shortly. GB rate will improve as well, but don't change your preseason projections of Suppan.
Recommendation: Should be owned in only deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter, although his BB rate has inexplicably dropped this year. I expect it to improve with time. Not much power, but hitting in the heart of a decent lineup should provide some RBIs and Runs. Should be owned on more than the 11.4% of ESPN teams he has a spot on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Talked about a little bit a few days ago. Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed. Good lineup, but is hitting towards the bottom of it.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Coming off the DL by Wednesday and will start immediately. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Alex Gonzalez | CIN | SS - Hit Tracker shows that Gonzalez's 2007 power seems legit. In 2006 he probably should have hit at least 12 HRs in his 388 ABs, and with 500 this year 15-20 is a possibility. Has had a Contact Rate in the low 80s the past three years, and his LD rate is good. 6.1% BB rate could be better, but a decent BA is also likely out of Gonzalez. Poor Reds management has Gonzalez hitting around in the 5th and 6th spots, which helps his value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.
Juan Encarnacion | STL | OF - Coming off the DL soon, Encarnacion could be valuable as a reserve OF. 5.1% BB rate wasn't very good last year, but his 2004 and 2005 level of 7% wasn't bad. Shows a decent Contact Rate in the low 80s and a LD rate above 20%, so he shouldn't have a problem putting up a decent BA. He should have hit more HRs last year, possibly as many as 25. That rate could be expected this year. Will enter a good Cards lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
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