Waiver Wire - National League

Alright, National League Waiver Wire day. Let's get right to it.

National League

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - I've talked about him already, but chances are he was dropped in your league. Pick him up and hope he gets either gets called back up or traded (the more likely scenario) soon. If he doesn't within a couple of weeks, you can drop him and pick him up again in July as the trade deadline approaches.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Claudio Vargas | MIL | SP - 34% GB rate isn't very good, but his combination of 9.79 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9 is. He has never had a K/9 higher than 6.77 in his career, but if it keeps up he'll be useful in most leagues. Play him until you see him stop K-ing guys.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues until he shows otherwise. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he shows otherwise.

Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - Generally considered one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, LaRoche seems to have control of the Dodger 3B job for now. He had an 84% Contact Rate in AAA last year, and had an 86% rate before his call-up this year. He had 19 HRs between AA and AAA in 2006. He has an 87% Contact Rate so far with the Dodgers and an insane 34.8% BB rate. He had an 11% BB rate in AAA last year, so his patience/selectivity is quite good. Not sure how the power will translate, but he should help you with Batting Average and he's hitting in a good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Mark Hendrickson | LAD | SP - .197 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Hendrickson, although his peripheral are better than I expected. His line: 7.24 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 53.8% GB. Definitely worthy of a roster spot, just not his 1.95 ERA. His K and GB rates are unlike his career numbers, so a decline is definitely possible. Use him until this happens.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.

Jason Marquis | LAD | SP - .202 BABIP indicates a great deal of luck is at work for Marquis as well, but he doesn't have the peripherals to be worth a roster spot except in the deepest leagues. His line: 4.53 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 47.6% GB. Very similar to his career numbers, so expect a steep decline for Marquis.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Had me worried after his first start, but his start against the Rockies at Coors has settled me down a bit. His BB rate wasn't great in the minors, and we knew he'd need to work on his control to be successful in the majors this year. His BB/9 stands at 4.76, but he only walked one batter in 7 IP against the Rockies. His 8.74 K/9 is quite good and should hold up this year. Only had a 33% GB rate in his first game, but it has now jumped to 48.5%. Worth a spot in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 8 team and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Some thought he might be starting to today, but that is not the case. His 4.13 BB/9 this year is terrible, and his K/9 has dropped to 5.79. Don't bother stashing Bailey as I doubt he will have much value this year unless he can somehow find some control, which he hasn't shown an abundance of in the minors yet.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be stashed in deep NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - You wouldn't expect his K/BB to increase so much after being moved out of the bullpen, but for now Belisle is worth using. Like the other guys, his peripherals could worsen at any time, but until then he can be used.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Randy Wolf | LAD | SP - Ridiculous 10.31 K/9 will have to drop, but his 2.44 BB/9 seems to be for real. Once his K/9 drops back to around 6 his low GB rate will only allow him to be an above average pitcher. Until then, ride him. .343 BABIP is keeping him under the radar for now.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP - Much improved numbers from last year, it's difficult to tell if it will last. There seems to be a lot of guys like this so far. Like all of them, play Wandy until he proves otherwise. His 46% GB rate makes him a better bet than a few of the others once their K rates decline.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Kyle Lohse | CIN | SP - Take Lohse's best K/9 of his career before 2007 and his best BB/9 of his career before 2007 and you have his 2007 line. Seems pretty legit, although he has little room for error. His terrible 32.5% GB is the lowest of his career, and there's a good chance it'll improve. Probably the best bet among these, normally considered below average-to-average, SPs to continue putting up his peripherals. Worth a roster spot.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Shawn Hill | WAS | SP - 5.94 K/9 is much better than expected, and his amazing 58.5% GB rate is exactly what I expected. He's keeping his BB/9 low, and if he can keep his K rate up he only becomes more valuable. Will struggle to pick up wins with the Nationals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.
UPDATE: Hill will likely be placed on the DL, so you will probably want to wait if you were planning on picking him up.

Anthony Reyes | STL | SP - Shows a stable K rate, but has improved his control to drop his BB/9 below 3. Also improved his GB rate, which might not last. Until then, Reyes has some value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jeff Suppan | MIL | SP - K/9 below 5 prevents him from having value in a lot of leagues, and his BB/9 is sure to increase to career levels shortly. GB rate will improve as well, but don't change your preseason projections of Suppan.
Recommendation: Should be owned in only deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter, although his BB rate has inexplicably dropped this year. I expect it to improve with time. Not much power, but hitting in the heart of a decent lineup should provide some RBIs and Runs. Should be owned on more than the 11.4% of ESPN teams he has a spot on.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Talked about a little bit a few days ago. Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed. Good lineup, but is hitting towards the bottom of it.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Coming off the DL by Wednesday and will start immediately. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Alex Gonzalez | CIN | SS - Hit Tracker shows that Gonzalez's 2007 power seems legit. In 2006 he probably should have hit at least 12 HRs in his 388 ABs, and with 500 this year 15-20 is a possibility. Has had a Contact Rate in the low 80s the past three years, and his LD rate is good. 6.1% BB rate could be better, but a decent BA is also likely out of Gonzalez. Poor Reds management has Gonzalez hitting around in the 5th and 6th spots, which helps his value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Juan Encarnacion | STL | OF - Coming off the DL soon, Encarnacion could be valuable as a reserve OF. 5.1% BB rate wasn't very good last year, but his 2004 and 2005 level of 7% wasn't bad. Shows a decent Contact Rate in the low 80s and a LD rate above 20%, so he shouldn't have a problem putting up a decent BA. He should have hit more HRs last year, possibly as many as 25. That rate could be expected this year. Will enter a good Cards lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

More On Risk

Yesterday I talked about exploiting Risk for the betterment of your Fantasy Baseball Team. Today I'll go over some guys who might make good targets to acquire cheaply and apply this strategy with.

One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.

Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.

Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.

Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.

Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.


Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire


Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.


Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire


Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.


Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.

Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.

I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.