There's a lot surrounding Jason Giambi right now, which makes it a good time to buy low on him. To start, he's only batting .268 after hitting .253 last year. He hasn't hit over .300 since his first year with the Yankees in 2002. In addition, he has only hit 5 HRs through nearly two months of the season.
Next, he's having trouble with a bone spur in his left heel. This is the problem I am most concerned with. This problem has kept him out of Yankee Interleague games being played in NL parks so far. Not healthy enough to play first base, Giambi has been relegated to sitting on the bench.
To top it all off, Giambi all but admitted on Friday to using steroids. His comments have allowed speculation to run rampant among reporters and speculators. Some have said that Giambi could be suspended. As far as I know, however, players can only be suspended if they have used steroids since 2005. Others have said that the Yankees might try and terminate Giambi's large contract. Again, this seems doubtful at best. George Steinbrenner cares about one thing: winning. He doesn't care how much money it costs or how ethically he does it (i.e. he doesn't care if Giambi used steroids a couple years ago); he just wants to win. Giambi can help him do that. Giambi is one of the best players in baseball, and to think Steinbrenner will give him up so he can save a few bucks just doesn't seem to be a likely scenario.
So where does all this leave Giambi's fantasy value? In the gutter. Honestly, it's already probably slipped through the gutter cracks and is being swept away down a sewage pipeline of grime. That makes this the best time to take advantage.
Preseason, I expected Giambi to hit around 45 HRs judging by his HitTracker numbers. While his power hasn't been very impressive so far, and he has yet to hit a ball with a True Distance over 400 feet, I have to think that the power is still in there and will come out soon. His 78% Contact rate is the best it's been since it was 80% in his 2002 season (the last season he hit over .300). His BB rate is down from its gargantuan 20% in 2005 and 2006, but 14% still ranks among the best in baseball. His career BB rate is 16.2%, so an increase is likely. His LD Percentage is a respectable 18.8%. All in all, I think his selectivity will allow him to hit .280. Plus, he hits for the Yankees, so a lot of RBIs and Runs should be a given.
My biggest concern with Giambi is his foot. I wish I knew a little more about how certain injuries affect players, but if you can get Giambi for cheap I think this is a risk that is well worth taking. If you get Giambi, just make sure you have a capable backup in case he can't play in the next Yankee NL Interleague series. A guy like Dan Johnson would be more than adequate. Conor Jackson would work too.
Showing posts with label Conor Jackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conor Jackson. Show all posts
Monday, May 21, 2007
Thursday, May 10, 2007
More On Risk
Yesterday I talked about exploiting Risk for the betterment of your Fantasy Baseball Team. Today I'll go over some guys who might make good targets to acquire cheaply and apply this strategy with.
One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.
Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.
Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.
Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.
Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.
Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.
Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.
I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.
One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.
Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.
Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.
Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.
Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.
Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.
Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.
I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Buying and Selling
Starting this week we'll be having a post on which players you should and shouldn't buy low and sell high on. If a player that you are curious about isn't mentioned, email us and we'll let you know how to best proceed. I'll try to mention players who are owned in most leagues (or who should be owned in most leagues), so those in deeper leagues with specific questions please don't hesitate to ask me. Here we go!
Buy Low
Garrett Atkins - One of my favorite preseason sleepers is struggling a little. If his owner thinks maybe Atkins isn't the player he thought he was on draft day grab him. I still think Atkins will be a first round pick next year. .330/35/110/100 is still quite possible.
Conor Jackson - Getting absolutely, incredibly, ridiculously unlucky, Jackson is a guy who could be a Top 10 1B by the end of the year. Great Contact Rate, Line Drive Percentage, and BB rate. Is a pretty good bet to reach 30 HRs. Very good lineup should keep his RBI and Run totals up.
Manny Ramirez & Lance Berkman - My #10 and #11 picks in the league with my friends are both struggling. Both are good players though and should be picked up on the cheap if at all possible. Both will put up monster numbers in 4 of 5 categories.
Brett Myers - Myers won't stay in middle relief for too long. He'll either become one of the game's best closers or Starting Pitchers (again). If he becomes the SP you're set, and if he becomes the closer just turn and trade him for another top shelf SP. Great peripherals since moving to the bullpen, which is when he changed his arm slot to correct his early season troubles.
Dave Bush - .383 BABIP means Bush is getting extremely unlucky. His control is amazing, his K rate is over 7, and his GB rate is above average. Sooner or later his run of bad luck will stop. Get him now while you can.
Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - Mentioned a lot already, so I won't spend a lot of time going over him. He needs to improve his control to become an elite pitcher, and he hasn't done it so far this year. There's no indication that he will, so stay away from Zambrano.
Ervin Santana - Mentioned as a bust candidate for this year, Santana is fulfilling my expectations. In case you're tempted to trade for him... don't. Even worse peripherals than last year. 1.33 K/BB and 30% GB rate is not a formula for success.
Chien-Ming Wang - Simply does not strike out enough players to have fantasy value. A 3 category starter is very rarely worth owning. His BB/9 is too high to even think he'll have very good ERA and WHIP.
Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman is another guy who has been overhyped. He is due for a power regression (12 HRs perhaps) and he is only an above average contact hitter. Add in his terrible lineup (although it will improve when Nick Johnson returns) and you have a poor fantasy player. His draft day value was much too high, so don't think you're getting a bargain with him.
Chuck James - Braves pitchers tend to get more hype than deserved, and James is one of them. He has a decent K/BB, but it won't get much better. Not a great K/9 and a downright bad GB Percentage. BABIP is a little high, but essentially what you see is what you get with Chuck James right now.
Sell High
Matt Cain - Cain's a young guy with a lot of hype, but his K/9 this year is at just 5.91 and his BB/9 is all the way up at 4.37. That equates to a lot of hits and a lot of walks. Add in his low GB Percentage, which is always low, and you'll get a lot of HRs too. Of course his K/9 should increase and his GB% will increase maybe 5-7%, but there is nothing to suggest his BB/9 will decrease. A .117 BABIP and 0.51 HR/9 won't hold up. I have a very strong feeling Cain owners will be very displeased in the coming months.
John Maine - Maine is getting very lucky via .200 BABIP and 0.54 HR/9. BABIP should be around .290 and HR/9 should be over 1 with his low GB Percentage. His K/9 is surprisingly good, but it may not last. His BB/9 is pretty high and his GB% is low.
Henry Owens - Seemingly pitching well, but a .233 BABIP is just luck. Low K/9, high BB/9 and only a decent GB Percentage means Owens is in for a fall. Let someone else catch him.
Rich Hill - Already being mentioned as a serious NL Cy Young candidate, this won't be the case at the end of the season. .192 BABIP and 0.76 HR/9 are quite lucky and his K/9 is down from last year. His GB Percentage is up, but it is still poor. Hill will end up as a decent pitcher, but he won't be an elite pitcher as he is being treated now. Trade him for one.
Justin Verlander - Another preseason bust I talked about, Verlander is getting lucky... again. You can't bank on luck, only on skill. 6.52 K/9 and 4.34 BB/9 paired with an average 43% GB rate is not how you achieve a 2.79 ERA. Verlander is in for a drop in production.
Don't Sell High
Jake Peavy - One of my favorite players preseason, Peavy is outperforming even my expectations. K/9 over 10.5 and BB/9 under 3 equals sheer dominance. Trade him only for Johan Santana.
Josh Beckett - My #19 SP preseason, Beckett should continue to produce as long as he is healthy. May need to K more guys if his amazing BB rate increases, and his GB rate may be a bit inflated, but Beckett should continue to produce quality fantasy numbers.
Chris Duncan - Don't know if I've mentioned him, but Duncan was a preseason sleeper for me. His HRs last year were legit, and he has hit a few so far this year. Decent Contact Rate, good LD rate, and decent BB rate means he should be a fairly productive contact hitter. Good lineup means RBIs and Runs. Only trade him if you can get good value for him.
Alex Rodriguez - Was due to hit more HRs this year. This pace won't keep up, but A-Rod should hit 50-55 HRs and 60 is a possibility. Most of his HRs this year have gone very far. He is simply destroying the ball. Not a great contact hitter, but a .280-.285 average is likely. A lot of RBIs and Runs are in store hitting in the middle of the Yankee lineup, and A-Rod is normally good for a few steals. Don't trade him for anyone not named Albert Pujols.
Buy Low
Garrett Atkins - One of my favorite preseason sleepers is struggling a little. If his owner thinks maybe Atkins isn't the player he thought he was on draft day grab him. I still think Atkins will be a first round pick next year. .330/35/110/100 is still quite possible.
Conor Jackson - Getting absolutely, incredibly, ridiculously unlucky, Jackson is a guy who could be a Top 10 1B by the end of the year. Great Contact Rate, Line Drive Percentage, and BB rate. Is a pretty good bet to reach 30 HRs. Very good lineup should keep his RBI and Run totals up.
Manny Ramirez & Lance Berkman - My #10 and #11 picks in the league with my friends are both struggling. Both are good players though and should be picked up on the cheap if at all possible. Both will put up monster numbers in 4 of 5 categories.
Brett Myers - Myers won't stay in middle relief for too long. He'll either become one of the game's best closers or Starting Pitchers (again). If he becomes the SP you're set, and if he becomes the closer just turn and trade him for another top shelf SP. Great peripherals since moving to the bullpen, which is when he changed his arm slot to correct his early season troubles.
Dave Bush - .383 BABIP means Bush is getting extremely unlucky. His control is amazing, his K rate is over 7, and his GB rate is above average. Sooner or later his run of bad luck will stop. Get him now while you can.
Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - Mentioned a lot already, so I won't spend a lot of time going over him. He needs to improve his control to become an elite pitcher, and he hasn't done it so far this year. There's no indication that he will, so stay away from Zambrano.
Ervin Santana - Mentioned as a bust candidate for this year, Santana is fulfilling my expectations. In case you're tempted to trade for him... don't. Even worse peripherals than last year. 1.33 K/BB and 30% GB rate is not a formula for success.
Chien-Ming Wang - Simply does not strike out enough players to have fantasy value. A 3 category starter is very rarely worth owning. His BB/9 is too high to even think he'll have very good ERA and WHIP.
Ryan Zimmerman - Zimmerman is another guy who has been overhyped. He is due for a power regression (12 HRs perhaps) and he is only an above average contact hitter. Add in his terrible lineup (although it will improve when Nick Johnson returns) and you have a poor fantasy player. His draft day value was much too high, so don't think you're getting a bargain with him.
Chuck James - Braves pitchers tend to get more hype than deserved, and James is one of them. He has a decent K/BB, but it won't get much better. Not a great K/9 and a downright bad GB Percentage. BABIP is a little high, but essentially what you see is what you get with Chuck James right now.
Sell High
Matt Cain - Cain's a young guy with a lot of hype, but his K/9 this year is at just 5.91 and his BB/9 is all the way up at 4.37. That equates to a lot of hits and a lot of walks. Add in his low GB Percentage, which is always low, and you'll get a lot of HRs too. Of course his K/9 should increase and his GB% will increase maybe 5-7%, but there is nothing to suggest his BB/9 will decrease. A .117 BABIP and 0.51 HR/9 won't hold up. I have a very strong feeling Cain owners will be very displeased in the coming months.
John Maine - Maine is getting very lucky via .200 BABIP and 0.54 HR/9. BABIP should be around .290 and HR/9 should be over 1 with his low GB Percentage. His K/9 is surprisingly good, but it may not last. His BB/9 is pretty high and his GB% is low.
Henry Owens - Seemingly pitching well, but a .233 BABIP is just luck. Low K/9, high BB/9 and only a decent GB Percentage means Owens is in for a fall. Let someone else catch him.
Rich Hill - Already being mentioned as a serious NL Cy Young candidate, this won't be the case at the end of the season. .192 BABIP and 0.76 HR/9 are quite lucky and his K/9 is down from last year. His GB Percentage is up, but it is still poor. Hill will end up as a decent pitcher, but he won't be an elite pitcher as he is being treated now. Trade him for one.
Justin Verlander - Another preseason bust I talked about, Verlander is getting lucky... again. You can't bank on luck, only on skill. 6.52 K/9 and 4.34 BB/9 paired with an average 43% GB rate is not how you achieve a 2.79 ERA. Verlander is in for a drop in production.
Don't Sell High
Jake Peavy - One of my favorite players preseason, Peavy is outperforming even my expectations. K/9 over 10.5 and BB/9 under 3 equals sheer dominance. Trade him only for Johan Santana.
Josh Beckett - My #19 SP preseason, Beckett should continue to produce as long as he is healthy. May need to K more guys if his amazing BB rate increases, and his GB rate may be a bit inflated, but Beckett should continue to produce quality fantasy numbers.
Chris Duncan - Don't know if I've mentioned him, but Duncan was a preseason sleeper for me. His HRs last year were legit, and he has hit a few so far this year. Decent Contact Rate, good LD rate, and decent BB rate means he should be a fairly productive contact hitter. Good lineup means RBIs and Runs. Only trade him if you can get good value for him.
Alex Rodriguez - Was due to hit more HRs this year. This pace won't keep up, but A-Rod should hit 50-55 HRs and 60 is a possibility. Most of his HRs this year have gone very far. He is simply destroying the ball. Not a great contact hitter, but a .280-.285 average is likely. A lot of RBIs and Runs are in store hitting in the middle of the Yankee lineup, and A-Rod is normally good for a few steals. Don't trade him for anyone not named Albert Pujols.
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