Waiver Wire - National League

OK. Here's the National League Waiver Wire for this week.

National League

Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.

Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.

Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn't been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.

Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven't been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg's numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I've had a few questions on him this week, so I'll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn't have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he's had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves's go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I'll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.

Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn't a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it's tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He's got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren't very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He's in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Rookie Pitchers to Look Out For

With the arrival of Philip Hughes, I thought it fitting to go over a few other minor league pitchers who figured to be called up sometime within the next month or two. I've talked a little about each player and given his 2006 and 2007 minor league numbers. I haven't included every possible player because MinorLeagueSplits.com doesn't provide a comprehensive list of players, just individual pages. If there's someone else you'd like to know about just let me know. We'll keep tabs on these guys throughout the year.

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Seemingly had a sub par outing against the Blue Jays in his first start on Thursday, but Hughes put up terrific peripheral numbers. 10.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, and a 46.7% Groundball rate does not equate to 4 runs. Hughes certainly could have pitched worse, and if he stays in the majors past his start against the Rangers on Tuesday figures to be a good play in most leagues. His minor league numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Trenton - 116 IP | 10.71 K/9 | 2.48 BB/9 | 52.4% GB
2006 A+ Tampa - 30.3 IP | 8.90 K/9 | 0.59 BB/9 | 51.4% GB

Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Doesn't get nearly as much hype as Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Tim Lincecum, or Yovani Gallardo, but Adam Miller is just as good as any of them, and is significantly better than Bailey. But up fantastic numbers in AA last year, just a touch worse than Philip Hughes. There's no guarantee he will be called up this year, but the Indians brought up Jeremy Sowers after 97 IP at AAA Buffalo last year, and Adam Miller is much better than Jeremy Sowers. Would become the Cleveland's 2nd best fantasy pitcher after C.C. Sabathia if he is called up. His minor leagues numbers from 2006 are below:
2006 AA Akron - 154 IP | 9.18 K/9 | 2.51 BB/9 | 55% GB
2007 AAA Buffalo - 24.3 IP | 8.51 K/9 | 2.96 BB/9 | 54.7% GB

Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - While he is not as heralded as Hughes or Bailey, Gallardo is generally considered the third best pitching prospect in baseball. While I don't quite agree with this consensus, Gallardo is certainly a good one. His GB Percentage is what will determine where he falls. It is down for this year, but if he can get it back above 50% he should be just a tick worse than Hughes and about even with Miller. Milwaukee's rotation seems set for now, but if Vargas starts to struggle or one of the starters get injured Gallardo could get his shot. Gallardo would become Milwaukee's third best fantasy starter behind Sheets and Bush. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Brevard County - 78 IP | 11.88 K/9 | 2.65 BB/9 | 57.3% GB
2006 AA Huntsville - 77.3 IP | 9.89 K/9 | 3.26 BB/9 | 42% GB
2007 AAA Nashville - 22.3 IP | 13.3 K/9 | 2.82 BB/9 | 39.6% GB

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted in June of last year, Lincecum didn't get much work in. The work he did get in though was fantastic, and his numbers this year are also great. The Giants rotation seems pretty set at the moment, although Russ Ortiz or Noah Lowry could find himself out of a starting gig if the Giants decide Lincecum is ready. When he is called up, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend him over every other Giants pitcher. He will need to cut down on his walks though. If he can do that he would shoot to the top of this list. His brief minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ San Jose - 27.7 IP | 15.61 K/9 | 3.90 BB/9 | 52.1% GB
2007 AAA Fresno - 24 IP | 12.00 K/9 | 4.13 BB/9 | 56% GB

Homer Bailey | CIN | SP - Bailey is a guy who I feel is overrated. He is considered by some a better prospect than Philip Hughes, but his numbers just don't support this theory. He walked more batters at AA than any of our other pitchers did, and his GB rate isn't stellar. He is still a decent pitcher, but he will need to improve his control in order to be successful in the Bigs this year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 A+ Sarasota - 70.7 IP | 10.06 K/9 | 2.80 BB/9 | 44.2% GB
2006 AA Chattanooga - 67.7 IP | 10.24 K/9 | 3.72 BB/9 | 49.7% GB
2007 AAA Louisville - 21.3 IP | 5.48 K/9 | 3.80 BB/9 | 39.1% GB

Jason Windsor | OAK | SP - Perhaps you've never heard of Windsor, but he is a fine young pitcher. He's the only player on this list to pitch in AAA last year and put up numbers comparable to all of their AA numbers. His GB Percentage is not premium and is what keeps him closer to Bailey than Hughes. Has not pitched well this year, but if that changes you might see him up with the big club by the end of the year. His minor league numbers are below:
2006 AA Midland - 33.3 IP | 9.45 K/9 | 2.70 BB/9 | 48.2% GB
2006 AAA Sacramento - 118 IP | 9.38 K/9 | 2.44 BB/9 | 46.1% GB
2007 AAA Sacramento - 26.7 IP | 5.74 K/9 | 4.05 BB/9 | 37.8% GB