Waiver Wire - National League

OK. Here's the National League Waiver Wire for this week.

National League

Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.

Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.

Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn't been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.

Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven't been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg's numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues.

Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I've had a few questions on him this week, so I'll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn't have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he's had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves's go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I'll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.

Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn't a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it's tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.

Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He's got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren't very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He's in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Henry Owens to the DL

Henry Owens, Florida Marlins closer, has been sent to the Disabled List. So who will take his place as closer? The Marlins would eventually like to get Jorge Julio back into this role. His first outing the other day was very good, but I think it's too soon for the Marlins to trust Julio with the role. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said, "He's the guy we want. The guy's got experience to do it but we've got to build confidence in him." The player who would be the best bet to get the most saves right now is Taylor Tankersley, although his numbers haven't been very inspiring thus far (5.40 K/9 | 3.60 BB/9 | 34.5% GB).

However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.

Julio Out As Marlins Closer... And Some Closer Ramblings

I mentioned it a few days ago a little early, but it is now official. Jorge Julio is no longer the closer for the Florida Marlins. A replacement has not been announced, but one would think Henry Owens will be the one to get the call. He earned the save earlier in the week when Julio had pitched two consecutive nights and couldn't go a third. Taylor Tankerlsey is coming back from the DL and could take the job later on; I don't expect him to get it immediately. Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, and Lee Gardner are also in the mix. I have picked Owens up in the league I've mentioned on here before. I dropped Akinori Otsuka with Eric Gagne coming back tomorrow and set to take the closer's role immediately.

I'm very disappointed with Otsuka, who earned me (and anyone else who picked him up) just one save over the past two weeks. This wasn't his fault, obviously, but I was hoping for more. I'm hoping now that the team of Henry Owens and Salomon Torres (in addition to Octavio Dotel when he returns) can increase my standing in the Saves category... at least until another good reliever takes over a closer job.

That's the beauty of my strategy. Even though Otsuka didn't work out, he was a low risk player who cost me nothing. Owens and Torres are exactly the same. Eventually things will even out and I will be able to get 6 or 7 points for Saves (in my 10-team league), as opposed to the 2 I have now. I don't expect to finish the year with Owens or Torres on my team, but I'll take what I can get from them now and then take what I can get from other guys later. Add it all up and I - and hopefully you - will have amassed a good number of saves come September.

Henry Owens Picks Up the Save Tonight

Missed out on Wheeler? Here's another chance at a decent closer. Henry Owens picked up the save in a close game tonight for the Marlins. He was filthy in the minors last year, and could be great this year. He hasn't struck a batter out yet this year, but he struck out a ton last year. Pick him up and see how he does over the next week or so. Taylor Tankersley will be coming back, so he could take the job at some point. Matt Lindstrom and Kevin Gregg are also in the mix, as is Jorge Julio.

Jorge Julio to Marlins

The Marlins acquired Jorge Julio for SP Yusmeiro Petit, whom them acquired last off-season from the Mets in the Carlos Delgado deal. It is assumed that Julio will close for the Marlins, who hadn't yet named a closer.

I don't see this as a necessary move as Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens could have been a serviceable closer for the Fish. With the move though, Julio puts himself into a very good fantasy spot. He has now been added to the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings. He has a Fantasy Score of 8.71 and is ranked #20. We expect a K/9 around 9.00, a BB/9 around 4.3, and a GB Percentage around 40%.

If you are in need of a closer and Julio is still on your waiver wire when you read this, I suggest you grab him. With a pretty good offense and decent pitching, Julio should pick up a good number of saves. He's also got some talent, contrary to the beliefs of many casual observers. Let's just hope that new Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't one of these people.

If Julio does lose his job, Taylor Tankersley, Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens would most likely take over and be just as valuable - if not more so - than Julio.

Closer Updates

Julian Tavarez is apparently the frontrunner now for the Red Sox closer job. I have added him to my closer rankings, but he doesn't seem to be much better than any of the other Red Sox options. I still expect a trade if Papelbon isn't healthy enough to do the job. Armando Benitez may be an option, but no deal has been discussed yet.

J.J. Putz had an MRI this morning. The Mariners will regret trading Rafael Soriano if Putz goes down for a while. Chris Reitsma seems to be the most likely to fill the role, but he is only an average fantasy option. Arthur Rhodes is also a possibility and a slightly better fantasy option. They have both been added to the Closer Rankings. The Mariners won't pursue Armando Benitez. The news about Putz is just another reason why I dislike taking closers early.

Jorge Julio is being discussed as a trade target by the Marlins. I don't believe they need Julio, but if they get him he would most likely step right into the closer's role. His Fantasy Score is 8.71, which would put him between Kevin Gregg (the current Marlins front runner) and Jason Isringhausen. He would make a pretty good fantasy option if he landed a closer job somewhere. The Giants have also talked about Julio in case they trade Armando Benitez.

Brian Stokes is now a closer option for the Devil Rays after being converted from a starter. He has poor control and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He is decent at inducing groundballs, but I don't think he's much of an improvement over Seth McClung.

Player Strategy Update - Takashi Saito

Version 3 of the Expert ADP Report just came out, and we have an update on Takashi Saito. He is going in Round 10, on average, in a 12-team draft. I now recommend everyone stay away from Saito as he is going much too early. If you are in a Yahoo! league, however, his Yahoo! rank puts him in Round 18. If he is still there in Round 17 or 18, pull the trigger on him.

If Saito is gone, be sure to target Jose Valverde in Round 17 or 18, as well as Octavio Dotel in the same area. If you aren't able to snag two of those guys, it might be a smart move to grab Ryan Dempster in Round 22 or 23.

Other closers of note include Jason Isringhausen in Round 17, Salomon Torres in Round 19, and Armando Benitez in Round 23. Of those choices, as long as I got Valverde, Saito, or Dotel, I would probably take Dempster in Round 22.

Don't panic if Dempster is gone or if you have another player that is too much of a value to pass up on. Even the intelligence of picking Dempster could be argued considering all of the guys who will get a chance to close this year. If you read the post before this - Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings - you'll notice that there are tons of Closer jobs that are either still being fought over or will open up due to injury or poor performance.

While Mike Timlin isn't the most talented player, the Red Sox closer is bound to get at least 35 or 40 opportunities to close games and he could be a good choice in the closing rounds of a draft, although his job security isn't very good. I doubt the Red Sox will be relying on Timlin down the stretch. Could a trade for a guy like Octavio Dotel be in the cards, maybe?

The winner of the Marlins job is also bound to get a decent amount of save opportunities with a pretty good offense and some decent starting pitchers. All of their options seem to be more talented than Timlin. Kevin Gregg is the front runner now, but Henry Owens is a great pitcher too should he win the job. Taylor Tankersley was one of my targets in drafts a few months back, so if he should recover well from his injury and take the job be sure to pick him up right away. If Gregg doesn't get drafted and ends up winning the job, makes sure to grab him. He might even be a better option than Dempster in the draft. You're just taking the risk he doesn't close games come April 1st.

Anyway, I think that should be enough Closer talk for a while. I sure seem to have talked a lot about end-game stoppers considering how overvalued I think they are.

Sources:
Fantasy Gameday for Version 3 of the Experts ADP Report.