There's a lot surrounding Jason Giambi right now, which makes it a good time to buy low on him. To start, he's only batting .268 after hitting .253 last year. He hasn't hit over .300 since his first year with the Yankees in 2002. In addition, he has only hit 5 HRs through nearly two months of the season.
Next, he's having trouble with a bone spur in his left heel. This is the problem I am most concerned with. This problem has kept him out of Yankee Interleague games being played in NL parks so far. Not healthy enough to play first base, Giambi has been relegated to sitting on the bench.
To top it all off, Giambi all but admitted on Friday to using steroids. His comments have allowed speculation to run rampant among reporters and speculators. Some have said that Giambi could be suspended. As far as I know, however, players can only be suspended if they have used steroids since 2005. Others have said that the Yankees might try and terminate Giambi's large contract. Again, this seems doubtful at best. George Steinbrenner cares about one thing: winning. He doesn't care how much money it costs or how ethically he does it (i.e. he doesn't care if Giambi used steroids a couple years ago); he just wants to win. Giambi can help him do that. Giambi is one of the best players in baseball, and to think Steinbrenner will give him up so he can save a few bucks just doesn't seem to be a likely scenario.
So where does all this leave Giambi's fantasy value? In the gutter. Honestly, it's already probably slipped through the gutter cracks and is being swept away down a sewage pipeline of grime. That makes this the best time to take advantage.
Preseason, I expected Giambi to hit around 45 HRs judging by his HitTracker numbers. While his power hasn't been very impressive so far, and he has yet to hit a ball with a True Distance over 400 feet, I have to think that the power is still in there and will come out soon. His 78% Contact rate is the best it's been since it was 80% in his 2002 season (the last season he hit over .300). His BB rate is down from its gargantuan 20% in 2005 and 2006, but 14% still ranks among the best in baseball. His career BB rate is 16.2%, so an increase is likely. His LD Percentage is a respectable 18.8%. All in all, I think his selectivity will allow him to hit .280. Plus, he hits for the Yankees, so a lot of RBIs and Runs should be a given.
My biggest concern with Giambi is his foot. I wish I knew a little more about how certain injuries affect players, but if you can get Giambi for cheap I think this is a risk that is well worth taking. If you get Giambi, just make sure you have a capable backup in case he can't play in the next Yankee NL Interleague series. A guy like Dan Johnson would be more than adequate. Conor Jackson would work too.
Showing posts with label Dan Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dan Johnson. Show all posts
Monday, May 21, 2007
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
I know this has been missing the past couple of weeks; I apologize. It shouldn't happen again now that I've got more free time on my hands. I'm thinking Saturday's will be American League day and Sunday's will be for the National League from now on, and maybe Wednesday will be reserved for Buy Low/Sell High day.
American League
Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.
American League
Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
OK. While it would be nice to think we'll never need to use the waiver wire throughout the season, that we have drafted a perfect team, that is simply not the case. Every fantasy champion uses the waiver wire at some point during the season, and the guys who win usually are successful in doing so. Each week I will give you a list of players, broken down by league, who you should either consider picking up or avoiding. This does not mean that you should pick up every player mentioned, just that if it suits the needs of your team this player may be a good choice.
You will usually see this on Saturday or Sunday, but as I was busy this weekend it is a little late.
American League
Jason Frasor | TOR | CL - If Frasor is still available in your league and you need closer help, pick him up immediately. Ryan's injury may be serious, and at the very least Frasor should pick Toronto's saves for the next two weeks. He's a good pitcher and should keep the job for the remainder of Ryan's DL stay, even if it is longer than a couple weeks.
UPDATE: Ryan is said to be out 4-6 weeks. Make Frasor your first Waiver Wire priority this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Al Reyes | TB | CL - If he's still out there, grab him. He doesn't seem to have much competition and has solid enough career numbers to avoid an implosion. 20% GB Percentage in 2007 is a bit unsettling, but it is still very early and we are looking at a small sample size.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Joakim Soria | KC | CL - If he is still available, Soria is another guy who should have a job closing for at least another couple of weeks. Won't get as many save opps as Frasor or Owens, but if you need saves Soria can get you a few on the cheap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Iwamura has played higher than most expected him to. I had no expectations going into the season as I haven't done any research on the Japanese transition to America, but Iwamura is certainly playing well. His BA will drop, but an 82% Contact Percentage is pretty good. He also has a 30% LD Percentage, which will also drop, but he could hit in the .285 range if it settles around 21%. His 24% Walk Percentage is incredible as well. His true value comes from his steals as a Third Basemen. Preseason his goal was 40, which may be a little unrealistic, but 25 SBs out of your 3B or CI is definitely a plus.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
David DeJesus | KC | OF - Always a subjective favorite of mine, his objective numbers aren't bad either. 86% Contact Rate is higher than past years, but his 21.4% LD Percentage is good. A 9.3% BB percentage also helps. He also should hit more HRs than last year; he's should be good for at least 15. He's got some speed, so 10 or 15 SBs isn't out of the question, although he's never reached either of those marks before. Royals lineup hurts his value, but he could be worthy of a bench spot depending on your team.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 10-team leagues, and should be owned in 12 and 14 team formats. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.
Mark Teahen | KC | 3B/OF - Wow, 3 Kansas City players in one week? We may not see this again. If Teahen has been dropped in your league, you may want to consider picking him up. While not as good as a similar valued, young, struggling 3B like Edwin Encarnacion, Teahen is a decent player. He has a great BB Percentage this year and it was above average last year, but a GB Percentage under 10 isn't so good. He should pick it up, but even his 15.9% of last year wasn't very good. His 60% Contact Rate is terrible, but if he gets it to his 2006 level of 78% he could be a serviceable backup. His power is due for a regression, but as a backup 3B you could do worse in deeper leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Worth a look in 10-team and should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Aaron Hill | TOR | MI - Hill is getting lucky. A .405 BABIP won't stick for anybody, much less Aaron Hill. He's sporting the lowest Contact Percentage and LD Percentage of his career, but if he can them both to career averages he could be a decent reserve MI in deep leagues the rest of the way. Avoid the temptation to take him in shallow leagues, as a .290 average and 5 HRs is what you should expect out of him
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep 12 team leagues, should probably be owned in 14 team leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | RP - Gagne hasn't been healthy in two years and could go down at any time, so stashing Otsuka away in leagues where teams hold onto middle relievers might be a good idea. If he is on your team you might as well play him as he will get you a few extra Ks and have a small impact on ERA and WHIP. Won't help a lot, but won't hurt to play him while you wait out Gagne.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Another subjective favorite of mine, Dan Johnson had very good objective numbers in 2005, and is expected back from the DL early next month. Hopefully his vision correction surgery will help him revert to 2005 form. If he does he could be a steal off the Waiver Wire for many teams.
Recommendation: Monitor in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues. Monitor in all AL-only leagues.
Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Still in the minors, Miller is a guy to watch. He had fantastic numbers in the minors last year with high Ks, low BBs, and amazing GB numbers. If he gets the call anytime soon be sure to snatch him.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Another guy still in the minors, Hughes boasts similar minor league numbers to Miller. He probably won't be called up right now, even with Mussina, Pavano, and Wang on the DL, but if the Yankees pull a fast one on us jump on him. He - like Miller - should be up later in the year, so continually monitor the Yanks rotation.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
You will usually see this on Saturday or Sunday, but as I was busy this weekend it is a little late.
American League
Jason Frasor | TOR | CL - If Frasor is still available in your league and you need closer help, pick him up immediately. Ryan's injury may be serious, and at the very least Frasor should pick Toronto's saves for the next two weeks. He's a good pitcher and should keep the job for the remainder of Ryan's DL stay, even if it is longer than a couple weeks.
UPDATE: Ryan is said to be out 4-6 weeks. Make Frasor your first Waiver Wire priority this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Al Reyes | TB | CL - If he's still out there, grab him. He doesn't seem to have much competition and has solid enough career numbers to avoid an implosion. 20% GB Percentage in 2007 is a bit unsettling, but it is still very early and we are looking at a small sample size.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Joakim Soria | KC | CL - If he is still available, Soria is another guy who should have a job closing for at least another couple of weeks. Won't get as many save opps as Frasor or Owens, but if you need saves Soria can get you a few on the cheap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Iwamura has played higher than most expected him to. I had no expectations going into the season as I haven't done any research on the Japanese transition to America, but Iwamura is certainly playing well. His BA will drop, but an 82% Contact Percentage is pretty good. He also has a 30% LD Percentage, which will also drop, but he could hit in the .285 range if it settles around 21%. His 24% Walk Percentage is incredible as well. His true value comes from his steals as a Third Basemen. Preseason his goal was 40, which may be a little unrealistic, but 25 SBs out of your 3B or CI is definitely a plus.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
David DeJesus | KC | OF - Always a subjective favorite of mine, his objective numbers aren't bad either. 86% Contact Rate is higher than past years, but his 21.4% LD Percentage is good. A 9.3% BB percentage also helps. He also should hit more HRs than last year; he's should be good for at least 15. He's got some speed, so 10 or 15 SBs isn't out of the question, although he's never reached either of those marks before. Royals lineup hurts his value, but he could be worthy of a bench spot depending on your team.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 10-team leagues, and should be owned in 12 and 14 team formats. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues.
Mark Teahen | KC | 3B/OF - Wow, 3 Kansas City players in one week? We may not see this again. If Teahen has been dropped in your league, you may want to consider picking him up. While not as good as a similar valued, young, struggling 3B like Edwin Encarnacion, Teahen is a decent player. He has a great BB Percentage this year and it was above average last year, but a GB Percentage under 10 isn't so good. He should pick it up, but even his 15.9% of last year wasn't very good. His 60% Contact Rate is terrible, but if he gets it to his 2006 level of 78% he could be a serviceable backup. His power is due for a regression, but as a backup 3B you could do worse in deeper leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Worth a look in 10-team and should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Aaron Hill | TOR | MI - Hill is getting lucky. A .405 BABIP won't stick for anybody, much less Aaron Hill. He's sporting the lowest Contact Percentage and LD Percentage of his career, but if he can them both to career averages he could be a decent reserve MI in deep leagues the rest of the way. Avoid the temptation to take him in shallow leagues, as a .290 average and 5 HRs is what you should expect out of him
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep 12 team leagues, should probably be owned in 14 team leagues. Should be owned in deep 10-team, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Akinori Otsuka | TEX | RP - Gagne hasn't been healthy in two years and could go down at any time, so stashing Otsuka away in leagues where teams hold onto middle relievers might be a good idea. If he is on your team you might as well play him as he will get you a few extra Ks and have a small impact on ERA and WHIP. Won't help a lot, but won't hurt to play him while you wait out Gagne.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12-team and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Another subjective favorite of mine, Dan Johnson had very good objective numbers in 2005, and is expected back from the DL early next month. Hopefully his vision correction surgery will help him revert to 2005 form. If he does he could be a steal off the Waiver Wire for many teams.
Recommendation: Monitor in 10, 12, and 14 team leagues. Monitor in all AL-only leagues.
Adam Miller | CLE | SP - Still in the minors, Miller is a guy to watch. He had fantastic numbers in the minors last year with high Ks, low BBs, and amazing GB numbers. If he gets the call anytime soon be sure to snatch him.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - Another guy still in the minors, Hughes boasts similar minor league numbers to Miller. He probably won't be called up right now, even with Mussina, Pavano, and Wang on the DL, but if the Yankees pull a fast one on us jump on him. He - like Miller - should be up later in the year, so continually monitor the Yanks rotation.
Recommendation: Monitor in all leagues.
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