Today, my friend and I had a conversation that I thought might interest you guys. We were talking about pitchers and their 'hitability'. Surely you've heard someone, possibly a broadcaster, talk about how a certain pitcher is very hittable, or how another pitcher is able to prevent hits. This person, unfortunately, is misinformed.
Anyway, my friend and I were talking about whether or not pitchers can do anything to prevent hits. We know that once a ball is put into play it is out of the pitcher's control, but can a pitcher throw the ball a certain way so that when it is put into play, it is hit worse than when another pitcher allows a ball to be put into play?
My friend said that good pitchers are able to limit their hits. I said that they can't. They can help determine the type of hit it is (groundball, airball, or pop-up), but cannot determine how hard it is hit or whether it is more or less likely to become a hit. To attempt - albeit crudely - to prove my point, I looked up the career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) for some of the greatest pitchers of our generation. HRs can be prevented by pitchers (by giving up more groundballs than flyballs), but hits in the field of play - I said - cannot be prevented. Here is a list of the pitchers I looked up. Keep in mind that league average BABIP is .290, so in order for my theory to be correct each pitcher should have a BABIP close to this (it can vary slightly due to luck and a tendency to give up either more groundballs or airballs, which fall for hits at slightly different rates).
Tom Glavine - .285
Johan Santana - .287
Pedro Martinez - .287
Greg Maddux - .288
Jamie Moyer - .289
John Smoltz - .290
Al Leiter - .291
Roger Clemens - .294
Mike Mussina - .295
David Wells - .300
Randy Johnson - .301
I chose these players because they are all considered good pitchers and all pitched for a good number of years. My viewpoint states that given enough time, all pitchers will put up the league average BABIP (or the variation for a pitcher with each specific GB and FB rates). Since league average is .290, it doesn't appear that any of these guys deviate too far from it. If anything, it looks like the deviation occurs in the opposite direction expected. Randy Johnson has given up more hits on balls in play than the average pitcher.
I think that this - while crude and dealing with a very small sample size - is a pretty good indicator that pitcher's can't control how many hits he gives up. It also gives further credibility to the statistics that I stress for pitchers. Since a pitcher cannot control hits or runs, we should focus only on what he can control - Strikeouts, Walks, and Batted Ball Types. The best of these Batted Ball types is the pop-up, but because this percentage is small for all pitchers I place more emphasis on talking about Groundball Percentage. Groundballs can't be hit out of the park and can be turned more easily into double plays than flyballs despite a slightly smaller Out Percentage.
I think there is a good chance that somebody out there has already proven this point - and most likely in a more scientific way - but I found the numbers above quite interesting and wanted to share them with you. Hope you enjoyed it!
Showing posts with label Roger Clemens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roger Clemens. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
I know this has been missing the past couple of weeks; I apologize. It shouldn't happen again now that I've got more free time on my hands. I'm thinking Saturday's will be American League day and Sunday's will be for the National League from now on, and maybe Wednesday will be reserved for Buy Low/Sell High day.
American League
Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.
American League
Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Clemens to Pitch For Yankees
Roger Clemens announced today that he will pitch for the Yankees, beginning at the end of the month. If you have room on your bench until then, need pitching, and Clemens is available on your Waiver Wire (in deeper leagues he's probably already gone) pick him up. He should be a Top 5 pitcher while he's playing. If you can trade for him cheap, it might not be a bad idea.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Draft Day Strategy - Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are an interesting breed, and there are always different ideas on where they should be drafted. Some say pitching stats are volatile, and the downside for any pitcher, even a top pitcher like Johan Santana, is much greater than it is for a hitter. These people say you should wait on pitchers and grab bargains later in the draft, where you're not investing too much. Others will tell you that there are only a few elite starting pitchers, and that it's necessary to grab at least one or two early.
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
