The first couple of weeks of the season are very similar to the last couple of weeks leading up to the season. Most fantasy baseball players have their teams set and are unwilling to trade players until they've seen something out of them. Two weeks of play will only sway the judgements of the most amateur of players. But since there's little else to talk about, at least for another week or two, we'll go over some players who may be good candidates to Sell High on or Buy Low on.
If you can stick to this principle - Buy Low and Sell High - and never do the opposite unless it is absolutely necessary, you should be in good shape througout the year. Even if I love a player, if he is getting lucky I will have no objections to trading him for a better player who is getting unlucky. Don't be afraid to make these kinds of trades. Let's take a look at a few pitchers who fit one of these bills.
Buy Low
Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb - Three of the top pitchers in the game ran into some rocks coming out of the gates. Don't fear; these guys will bounce back. If for whatever reason their owners are panicking, take advantage of it. Check my Starting Pitcher Rankings; player projections rarely change over the first couple of weeks.
Ben Sheets - Great first start, ugly second start. As long as he stays healthy Sheets should be one of the best in the game.
Scott Kazmir - Struck out 5 in 5 IP, but also walked 4. This explains his 9.00 ERA, but expect his BBs to go down as the year progresses.
Felix Hernandez - Why is a guy with 12 Ks and a 0.00 ERA in 8 IP listed under buy low? Because as I've said numerous times over the past few months, Felix is a serious threat to Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young. If you can still get him for his draft day value, do it now.
Mike Mussina - Good pitcher, bad first start. He's getting older, but he still should be a Top 15 pitcher this year. Too many walks his first time out, but that should improve. If it doesn't, hope he gets lucky and look to sell.
Sell High
Justin Verlander - Will take a big step back from last year. A 0.00 ERA in his first start may lead some to believe he will improve. Don't fall for it. Trade him if he's on your team.
John Lackey - Not as bad as Verlander, but not worth his draft day value. Also got a 0.00 ERA so far in addition to a Win, trade Lackey for a real Top 10 Starting Pitcher before you lose the opportunity to.
Dontrelle Willis - Cool nickname, overrated player because of it. He may be exciting to watch, but he's not as good as the hype suggests. With a Win and a 1.50 ERA so far, capitalize on his perceived value.
Jason Schmidt - Another guy whose hype doesn't match his performance. Even his surface numbers didn't look great the past couple of years. Dump him.
Tom Glavine - As a Mets fan I love Glavine, but he's not a good Fantasy pitcher. Sell him while you can.
Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - I went over him yesterday. He had a rough first outing. 5 BBs in 5 IP is not a good sign for a guy who needs improved command to succeed this year. It's still early though. I just wouldn't touch this guy. If you own him, wait until he has a couple of solid outings and trade him. You may not even need to wait if your league owners realize that one bad start is nothing to worry about (unless you're savvy and realize that Carlos Zambrano isn't that great to begin with).
Chris Young -Another guy I've expressed my disdain for. Perhaps a 4.76 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP isn't super terrible, but Young is a guy you should definately stay away from unless he's your 4th or 5th SP in a deep league.
Don't Sell High
Jake Peavy - Another guy I've touted as a fantastic fantasy pitcher. He pitched well in his first start. Don't expect this change as long as he's healthy.
Felix Hernandez - I realize he was also listed under Buy Low, but King Felix is for real. Make sure he is on all of your teams if at all possible.
Cole Hamels - Another young guy who shouldn't be underestimated. While his ERA will not remain at 0.00 the entire season, expect Hamels to be a Top 12 pitcher.
Showing posts with label Felix Hernandez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Felix Hernandez. Show all posts
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Friday, April 6, 2007
Overrated Player Alert: Carlos Zambrano
In the latest addition of the Mailbag I advised our anonymous reader to reject his proposed to trade of Carlos Zambrano/Johnny Damon for Brandon Webb/Delmon Young. I then advised him to seek out another trade to rid himself of Carlos Zambrano while his value is high. Reader Keith asked me to explain my distrust of Zambrano. I believe I've briefly mentioned why I dislike Zambrano before, but I'll explain it again now.
Carlos Zambrano has a good K/9 (mid-to-high 8s). That's always a great start for a pitcher, especially for fantasy purposes. But then we look at Zambrano's BB/9. It was 4.84 in 2006. That is incredibly high and makes the type of success many fantasy leaguers expect of Zambrano extremely difficult to come by. Of course that was his highest mark since 2002, but even in 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 3.48 and 3.47, respectively. Zambrano does get a lot of groundballs, which is also a good thing. His career GB Percentage is 51.2%, exceptional for a power pitcher.
A player's K rate and GB rate are difficult to drastically improve, but a player's BB rate is not as difficult. Zambrano has the two easiest going in his favor, and an BB rate under 3 would make Zambrano the pitcher most people think he is. But he is not there. If he is going to make this leap, it is most likely to be in the next 3 years (his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons). 27 is usually the magic number, but it can vary.
Now that I've explained his makeup, I'll explain my dislike for him - this year anyway - as a fantasy pitcher. The crop of pitchers this year is incredible, and I was able to pinpoint some great values. With this being the case, using a 4th or 5th round pick on Zambrano seems foolish, especially when there are pitchers that already have the peripherals I think Zambrano is capable of attaining. Why hope for something to happen when there are players who are already doing it?
While he has a lower GB rate, Jake Peavy has a higher K rate and much lower BB rate. Felix Hernandez has a similar K rate, better GB rate, and a better BB rate. Felix is still just 20 and is entering his third season (another magic number for pitchers). Brett Myers has a similar K rate, better BB rate, and only a slightly worse GB Percentage.
I think you see my point. Why would you want to bank on a possibility when the reality is already there... and at a discounted price!
I strongly suggest anyone who owns Carlos Zambrano to trade him. He certainly could improve his BB rate this year and join the ranks of the elite pitchers, but the player's he'd be joining are already there. Trade him for one of these guys and get a little extra out of it.
Carlos Zambrano has a good K/9 (mid-to-high 8s). That's always a great start for a pitcher, especially for fantasy purposes. But then we look at Zambrano's BB/9. It was 4.84 in 2006. That is incredibly high and makes the type of success many fantasy leaguers expect of Zambrano extremely difficult to come by. Of course that was his highest mark since 2002, but even in 2004 and 2005 his BB/9 was 3.48 and 3.47, respectively. Zambrano does get a lot of groundballs, which is also a good thing. His career GB Percentage is 51.2%, exceptional for a power pitcher.
A player's K rate and GB rate are difficult to drastically improve, but a player's BB rate is not as difficult. Zambrano has the two easiest going in his favor, and an BB rate under 3 would make Zambrano the pitcher most people think he is. But he is not there. If he is going to make this leap, it is most likely to be in the next 3 years (his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons). 27 is usually the magic number, but it can vary.
Now that I've explained his makeup, I'll explain my dislike for him - this year anyway - as a fantasy pitcher. The crop of pitchers this year is incredible, and I was able to pinpoint some great values. With this being the case, using a 4th or 5th round pick on Zambrano seems foolish, especially when there are pitchers that already have the peripherals I think Zambrano is capable of attaining. Why hope for something to happen when there are players who are already doing it?
While he has a lower GB rate, Jake Peavy has a higher K rate and much lower BB rate. Felix Hernandez has a similar K rate, better GB rate, and a better BB rate. Felix is still just 20 and is entering his third season (another magic number for pitchers). Brett Myers has a similar K rate, better BB rate, and only a slightly worse GB Percentage.
I think you see my point. Why would you want to bank on a possibility when the reality is already there... and at a discounted price!
I strongly suggest anyone who owns Carlos Zambrano to trade him. He certainly could improve his BB rate this year and join the ranks of the elite pitchers, but the player's he'd be joining are already there. Trade him for one of these guys and get a little extra out of it.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Mailbag: Multi-Player Trade
Back with another edition of the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Mailbag. After this I'm getting back to work on the formulas and rankings. After reading feel free to comment on what you would do in this situation.
Luke Gloeckner wrote:
" Hey. First off: your blog is a lifesaver. There's some great knowledge on there. I just recently stumbled upon and have read through a great majority of it already. Awesome, awesome stuff!
Anyway, forgive me for doing so, but I wanted to talk through a situation with you. I'm in a keeper league that heavily favors pitching (notably, quality starts are worth more than any other stat). I'm one of those fools who ended up with Chris Young virtue of a pick in this year's draft. After drafting him, I was sifting through some stats and stumbled upon the BABIP leaders for last year and was floored by how he dwarfed the competition here. Then I found your article where you labeled him as over-hyped. So, I immediately put him on the trading block in my league (the rest of the league loved the pick when I got him) to see what value I could get for him (he is my fourth starter behind Santana, Lackey and Verlander).
The offer I was able to work out with someone is Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman and Rocco Baldelli for Garrett Atkins, Kelvim Escobar and Mike Pelfrey. Keep in mind, this is a keeper league (we keep four or five players each year). The offer's sitting on the table as of right now and I was just wondering what your thoughts on the deal were, as I've found your advice and research very valuable.
Once again, I apologize for trying to make use of you as a sounding board for trade advice but I just wanted a non-partisan opinion and through your writing, I can see yours is respectable. Write back with your thoughts, if you get the chance.
Thanks!"
My response:
"As I said on the blog, I am not a fan of Chris Young this year. He is alright, but is highly overrated. That being said, I think you've found yourself a very favorable deal. I believe I've mentioned Atkins before on the blog; he is fantastic. He should be a first round pick next year once people realize that he is for real. While Zimmerman is alright, he is no Atkins. I have Zimmerman down for a .287 BA and Atkins for .330-ish (I'm not at my normal computer right now to get the exact figure). While Zimmerman hit 50 2Bs and 3Bs and could take a leap in HRs, Atkins is already at a high power level and has an equally good chance to continue to hit more. Atkins also has the luxury of a superior lineup.
I have Escobar ranked around #20 and Young at #33, so I obviously see that as an upgrade. I like Pelfrey a lot too, if you read my Mets Preview of the Starting Rotation. It's difficult to tell how his numbers will translate to the majors, but he certainly has a ton of potential and is definitely a good guy to have in a keeper league (Philip Hughes is another guy I love in keeper leagues).
Baldelli is so-so, not a ton of power and not a fantastic contact hitter. He's expendable for sure.
Definately do this trade.
Looking at the rest of your rotation, my advice would be to make a few more trades. I'm not big on Verlander unless he can eventually get his K/9 up to the 8.00 - 9.00 level, which seems somewhat unlikely. There are much better pitchers out there. Same goes for Lackey, who is certainly a decent pitcher but not someone you should be relying on as a #2 (after this trade Escobar will actually be your second best pitcher). Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings; I think you'll find some guys who could provide better value than Lackey or Verlander. Felix, Hamels, Kazmir, and Myers are all great young guys who are better than these two. Verlander and Lackey are both highly rated for now, so I would definitely recommend trading them both (Verlander even more so) if at all possible.
Santana is obviously a great pitcher, but I don't have him on any of my teams. His value is so high right now I actually would look into a possible trade. You could get two great players for him. I don't know how your offense is, but if it's good I would try to grab two pitchers. Felix Hernandez would be awesome, especially in a keeper league. If you could get Felix and a Hamels/Kazmir/Myers type you would be in great shape. If you could get two of these for Verlander and Lackey you probably wouldn't even need to trade Santana, unless you wanted to get an elite hitter and another good pitcher for him.
A rotation of:
Santana, Felix, Myers, Escobar is very good, but
A rotation of:
Peavy, Felix, Myers, Escobar is also very good and could net you another top hitter for your offense.
Anyway, I think I've given you a little bit to think about.
Essentially, I would advise you to make this trade and look into a few more. I hope this advice helps! Let me know how everything turns out for you!"
Please let your thoughts on this matter be heard! Comment away!
Luke Gloeckner wrote:
" Hey. First off: your blog is a lifesaver. There's some great knowledge on there. I just recently stumbled upon and have read through a great majority of it already. Awesome, awesome stuff!
Anyway, forgive me for doing so, but I wanted to talk through a situation with you. I'm in a keeper league that heavily favors pitching (notably, quality starts are worth more than any other stat). I'm one of those fools who ended up with Chris Young virtue of a pick in this year's draft. After drafting him, I was sifting through some stats and stumbled upon the BABIP leaders for last year and was floored by how he dwarfed the competition here. Then I found your article where you labeled him as over-hyped. So, I immediately put him on the trading block in my league (the rest of the league loved the pick when I got him) to see what value I could get for him (he is my fourth starter behind Santana, Lackey and Verlander).
The offer I was able to work out with someone is Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman and Rocco Baldelli for Garrett Atkins, Kelvim Escobar and Mike Pelfrey. Keep in mind, this is a keeper league (we keep four or five players each year). The offer's sitting on the table as of right now and I was just wondering what your thoughts on the deal were, as I've found your advice and research very valuable.
Once again, I apologize for trying to make use of you as a sounding board for trade advice but I just wanted a non-partisan opinion and through your writing, I can see yours is respectable. Write back with your thoughts, if you get the chance.
Thanks!"
My response:
"As I said on the blog, I am not a fan of Chris Young this year. He is alright, but is highly overrated. That being said, I think you've found yourself a very favorable deal. I believe I've mentioned Atkins before on the blog; he is fantastic. He should be a first round pick next year once people realize that he is for real. While Zimmerman is alright, he is no Atkins. I have Zimmerman down for a .287 BA and Atkins for .330-ish (I'm not at my normal computer right now to get the exact figure). While Zimmerman hit 50 2Bs and 3Bs and could take a leap in HRs, Atkins is already at a high power level and has an equally good chance to continue to hit more. Atkins also has the luxury of a superior lineup.
I have Escobar ranked around #20 and Young at #33, so I obviously see that as an upgrade. I like Pelfrey a lot too, if you read my Mets Preview of the Starting Rotation. It's difficult to tell how his numbers will translate to the majors, but he certainly has a ton of potential and is definitely a good guy to have in a keeper league (Philip Hughes is another guy I love in keeper leagues).
Baldelli is so-so, not a ton of power and not a fantastic contact hitter. He's expendable for sure.
Definately do this trade.
Looking at the rest of your rotation, my advice would be to make a few more trades. I'm not big on Verlander unless he can eventually get his K/9 up to the 8.00 - 9.00 level, which seems somewhat unlikely. There are much better pitchers out there. Same goes for Lackey, who is certainly a decent pitcher but not someone you should be relying on as a #2 (after this trade Escobar will actually be your second best pitcher). Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings; I think you'll find some guys who could provide better value than Lackey or Verlander. Felix, Hamels, Kazmir, and Myers are all great young guys who are better than these two. Verlander and Lackey are both highly rated for now, so I would definitely recommend trading them both (Verlander even more so) if at all possible.
Santana is obviously a great pitcher, but I don't have him on any of my teams. His value is so high right now I actually would look into a possible trade. You could get two great players for him. I don't know how your offense is, but if it's good I would try to grab two pitchers. Felix Hernandez would be awesome, especially in a keeper league. If you could get Felix and a Hamels/Kazmir/Myers type you would be in great shape. If you could get two of these for Verlander and Lackey you probably wouldn't even need to trade Santana, unless you wanted to get an elite hitter and another good pitcher for him.
A rotation of:
Santana, Felix, Myers, Escobar is very good, but
A rotation of:
Peavy, Felix, Myers, Escobar is also very good and could net you another top hitter for your offense.
Anyway, I think I've given you a little bit to think about.
Essentially, I would advise you to make this trade and look into a few more. I hope this advice helps! Let me know how everything turns out for you!"
Please let your thoughts on this matter be heard! Comment away!
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Rate My Team
Hey guys. I figured I'd give you something to look at having not posted much in the last 36 hours. This is one of my teams this year. This league is a 5x5, Roto Style, 10-team league.
C - Mike Piazza
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Ray Durham
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
SS - Bill Hall
CI - Jason Giambi
MI - Ryan Freel
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Kenny Lofton
RF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Barry Bonds
OF - Adam Dunn
UT - Frank Thomas
BN - Adam LaRoche
BN - Pat Burrell
BN - Chris Duncan
SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Felix Hernandez
RP - Octavio Dotel
RP - Akinori Otsuka
P - Curt Schilling
P - Brett Myers
P - Javier Vazquez
BN - Scott Olsen
BN - Mike Pelfrey
Alright, let me know what you think of my team. I am currently trying to get a base stealer after missing out on Carlos Beltran early. A Juan Pierre type I think would fit nicely with this team, especially considering Kenny Lofton is my current CF. Anyway, my draft was conducted before my I finished my hitter rankings (which I believe I made some great strides on today), so my offense may or may not fit with my rankings exactly. All of these guys I believe are good baseball players. Let's hope that my rankings find they are good fantasy players too!
C - Mike Piazza
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Ray Durham
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
SS - Bill Hall
CI - Jason Giambi
MI - Ryan Freel
LF - Manny Ramirez
CF - Kenny Lofton
RF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Barry Bonds
OF - Adam Dunn
UT - Frank Thomas
BN - Adam LaRoche
BN - Pat Burrell
BN - Chris Duncan
SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Felix Hernandez
RP - Octavio Dotel
RP - Akinori Otsuka
P - Curt Schilling
P - Brett Myers
P - Javier Vazquez
BN - Scott Olsen
BN - Mike Pelfrey
Alright, let me know what you think of my team. I am currently trying to get a base stealer after missing out on Carlos Beltran early. A Juan Pierre type I think would fit nicely with this team, especially considering Kenny Lofton is my current CF. Anyway, my draft was conducted before my I finished my hitter rankings (which I believe I made some great strides on today), so my offense may or may not fit with my rankings exactly. All of these guys I believe are good baseball players. Let's hope that my rankings find they are good fantasy players too!
Monday, March 19, 2007
Mailbag: Felix for Aramis?
A reader who asked to be left anonymous wrote:
"Hi Derek,
I love your blog. I've been a huge fantasy baseball fan for about 10 years now, but ever since my first year I haven't been able to do better than 4th place. I wonder if you might give me some advice on a possible trade.
I'm in an 8-team league. I think my team is pretty strong except that I'm weak at 3rd base. Right now my I have Freddy Sanchez at that position. Ideally, I'd like to use him as a rover between 2B, SS, and 3B. I'm wondering if I should make a trade to get a better 3B. One of the other teams in my league offered me Aramis Ramirez for Felix Hernandez. I like Felix but his numbers weren't great last year. My other SP are Smoltz, Harden, Myers, Cain, and Jered Weaver. We only have 4 SP positions and so now I have two on the bench. Would you make the trade?"
I responded:
"Hi Derek,
I love your blog. I've been a huge fantasy baseball fan for about 10 years now, but ever since my first year I haven't been able to do better than 4th place. I wonder if you might give me some advice on a possible trade.
I'm in an 8-team league. I think my team is pretty strong except that I'm weak at 3rd base. Right now my I have Freddy Sanchez at that position. Ideally, I'd like to use him as a rover between 2B, SS, and 3B. I'm wondering if I should make a trade to get a better 3B. One of the other teams in my league offered me Aramis Ramirez for Felix Hernandez. I like Felix but his numbers weren't great last year. My other SP are Smoltz, Harden, Myers, Cain, and Jered Weaver. We only have 4 SP positions and so now I have two on the bench. Would you make the trade?"
I responded:
"Happy to hear you like my blog. First, you should know that my hitter rankings aren't completed yet as my RBI and Run formulas are still being created/finished. That being said, Aramis Ramirez is a very good 3B. Great Contact and Line Drive Rates with lots of power. He is also fairly good at drawing a walk.
He has good hitters ahead of him in Soriano and Lee, and Murton could be pretty decent as well. Over 100 RBIs should be expected, but I don't have an exact figure yet. His Runs should be decent. Jones has some power and Barrett is one of the most underrated catchers in baseball. DeRosa is a decent hitter but doesn't have a ton of power (Barrett doesn't really either). His Runs should be pretty good because he gets on base and has decent players behind him, but again I don't have an exact figure.
I love Felix Hernandez. I have him ranked as my #4 SP, and I think trading him for Ramirez would be a mistake. While his surface numbers last year weren't great, his peripherals were and I expect him to contend with Johan Santana for the Cy Young this year.
Smoltz and Myers are also great pitchers. Harden is very good as well (Top 15). Let's just hope he can stay healthy. I'm not super big on Cain or Weaver. I would probably counteroffer with both of those two for Ramirez (and someone else if you can swing it).
Another option would be to seek another 3B. My favorite choice this year is Garrett Atkins. I'd offer those two for Atkins first, and if it is denied try for Ramirez. If you can't find a deal that works for either of those two, my next target would be Chipper Jones. He would be much cheaper than Atkins or Aramis. You might be able to get him for just one of Cain or Weaver. Aramis and Chipper might be a little injury prone, but you have Sanchez who could step in if they get hurt. Edwin Encarnacion would also be a great backup for either of those two if he is on your waiver wire.
That would still leave you with:
Felix
Smoltz
Myers
Harden
with possibly Cain/Weaver on the Bench.
I don't know what your maximum total innings limit is, but if it is low you could afford to lose both Cain and Weaver with this rotation. Just make sure to pick up Philip Hughes in June and Roger Clemens in April or June if he is available. Pedro Martinez the last couple weeks of the year could also help out. Check my site throughout the season for my top Waiver Wire Pickups.
If you are able to keep one of Cain or Weaver I would recommend trading him for Schilling, Mussina, Burnett, Vazquez, or Kelvim Escobar, in that order. Oh, and if Dave Bush is on your waiver wire (he might be in an 8 team league) pick him up.
One last option: If you could turn Cain or Weaver into Curt Schilling you could probably afford to trade Smoltz and the other one (Cain/Weaver) for Atkins or possibly Aramis."
I wrote more about Felix Hernandez here, which may have gotten overlooked by many of you as it was my first post about a player.
If you have a agree or have a different opinion than me please feel free to post away!
One last option: If you could turn Cain or Weaver into Curt Schilling you could probably afford to trade Smoltz and the other one (Cain/Weaver) for Atkins or possibly Aramis."
I wrote more about Felix Hernandez here, which may have gotten overlooked by many of you as it was my first post about a player.
If you have a agree or have a different opinion than me please feel free to post away!
Friday, March 16, 2007
My Team's Pitching Staff
I've been posting rankings and advice and reasons behind them, but I've never actually mentioned any of my own teams. Today I'll go over my pitching staff in my favorite league. I play in it with a bunch of my friends, and I find this to be the most fun league I play in. Here's my pitching staff in addition to the round I took him in.
This is a Yahoo! league with the following roster spots:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, UT
SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P
5 Bench Spots
It is a 10-team league and our draft lasted 25 rounds. I had the 10th pick. Two rounds are given as I had back-to-back picks and it didn't matter which of the two rounds I technically took him in.
3/4. Jake Peavy - perhaps a round early, but I wanted him badly.
5/6. Felix Hernandez - Yahoo! has him ranked very highly and he was the second pitcher left on Yahoo!s board when I took him; I couldn't risk not getting him in the next round as I'd planned.
9/10. Curt Schilling - I love Schilling, and I think he is a steal here.
9/10. Brett Myers - Myers had normally been going in Round 8 in 10 team leagues, and I thought he was a good value here. I also knew that my friend was targeting Burnett, Bush, Escobar, and Vazquez late, so taking Myers here insured I wouldn't end up with too few quality pitchers. I hadn't intended on taking Myers, but with Chipper Jones gone and my next few targets a reach here, Myers seemed like the right pick.
17/18. Javier Vazquez - As I suspected, A.J. Burnett was taken the pick before by my friend and I had to settle for Vazquez. Kelvim Escobar was taken by the same friend with the second pick of Round 18. Surprisingly, another friend liked Bush more than I do and took him in Round 16. Looks like Myers was a good pick.
19/20. Octavio Dotel - Valverde went in Round 16, earlier than I would have liked, and my friend who took Burnett and Escobar took Saito right before I could here. I settled for my third choice, Dotel. Not a huge problem, as I will surely find some good bargains on the waiver wire throughout the year.
21/22. Scott Olsen - I'd rather have Escobar, Vazquez, or Bush as my #5 SP, but I could do worse than Olsen.
23/24. Derek Lowe - Not who I wanted to get, but he will provide a good ERA. Considering the K-machine I'd built throughout the draft, I could afford an average amount of Ks from Lowe. His WHIP will be decent, not great. Could have done worse. Philip Hughes or possibly Mike Pelfrey will most likely take his spot on my roster later in the year. Roger Clemens could as well if the guy who drafted him gets sick of waiting and drops him.
25 - Akinori Otsuka - Last pick of the draft, no closers left who are guaranteed a job... Otsuka seemed like a decent pick. I don't intend for him to be on my roster on April 1st, but seeing as how my draft was held in Mid-February I thought I'd see how Eric Gagne held up through Spring Training. I will probably drop him within the next couple weeks and pick up Kevin Gregg if Gagne doesn't get hurt and the Marlins give Gregg the job to start the season. My league - correctly - doesn't value Middle Relievers very highly, and Otsuka should still be there should Gagne go down later in the year.
The staff I hoped to get:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Valverde
RP Saito
P Schilling
P Burnett
P Vazquez
BN Escobar
BN Bush/Olsen/Dotel
The staff I ended up with:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Dotel
RP Otsuka (Gregg)
P Schilling
P Myers
P Vazquez
BN Olsen
BN Lowe
Overall I think I did pretty well. I missed my closers, but I should be able to get some quality guys throughout the year, as I've been preaching for a while now.
If you have any questions or comments about my team's pitching, feel free to let me know!
Now, back to some more March Madness action! I might post a little during the break from 5 to 7. I'll also be working on the Run and RBI formulas.
This is a Yahoo! league with the following roster spots:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, UT
SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P
5 Bench Spots
It is a 10-team league and our draft lasted 25 rounds. I had the 10th pick. Two rounds are given as I had back-to-back picks and it didn't matter which of the two rounds I technically took him in.
3/4. Jake Peavy - perhaps a round early, but I wanted him badly.
5/6. Felix Hernandez - Yahoo! has him ranked very highly and he was the second pitcher left on Yahoo!s board when I took him; I couldn't risk not getting him in the next round as I'd planned.
9/10. Curt Schilling - I love Schilling, and I think he is a steal here.
9/10. Brett Myers - Myers had normally been going in Round 8 in 10 team leagues, and I thought he was a good value here. I also knew that my friend was targeting Burnett, Bush, Escobar, and Vazquez late, so taking Myers here insured I wouldn't end up with too few quality pitchers. I hadn't intended on taking Myers, but with Chipper Jones gone and my next few targets a reach here, Myers seemed like the right pick.
17/18. Javier Vazquez - As I suspected, A.J. Burnett was taken the pick before by my friend and I had to settle for Vazquez. Kelvim Escobar was taken by the same friend with the second pick of Round 18. Surprisingly, another friend liked Bush more than I do and took him in Round 16. Looks like Myers was a good pick.
19/20. Octavio Dotel - Valverde went in Round 16, earlier than I would have liked, and my friend who took Burnett and Escobar took Saito right before I could here. I settled for my third choice, Dotel. Not a huge problem, as I will surely find some good bargains on the waiver wire throughout the year.
21/22. Scott Olsen - I'd rather have Escobar, Vazquez, or Bush as my #5 SP, but I could do worse than Olsen.
23/24. Derek Lowe - Not who I wanted to get, but he will provide a good ERA. Considering the K-machine I'd built throughout the draft, I could afford an average amount of Ks from Lowe. His WHIP will be decent, not great. Could have done worse. Philip Hughes or possibly Mike Pelfrey will most likely take his spot on my roster later in the year. Roger Clemens could as well if the guy who drafted him gets sick of waiting and drops him.
25 - Akinori Otsuka - Last pick of the draft, no closers left who are guaranteed a job... Otsuka seemed like a decent pick. I don't intend for him to be on my roster on April 1st, but seeing as how my draft was held in Mid-February I thought I'd see how Eric Gagne held up through Spring Training. I will probably drop him within the next couple weeks and pick up Kevin Gregg if Gagne doesn't get hurt and the Marlins give Gregg the job to start the season. My league - correctly - doesn't value Middle Relievers very highly, and Otsuka should still be there should Gagne go down later in the year.
The staff I hoped to get:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Valverde
RP Saito
P Schilling
P Burnett
P Vazquez
BN Escobar
BN Bush/Olsen/Dotel
The staff I ended up with:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Dotel
RP Otsuka (Gregg)
P Schilling
P Myers
P Vazquez
BN Olsen
BN Lowe
Overall I think I did pretty well. I missed my closers, but I should be able to get some quality guys throughout the year, as I've been preaching for a while now.
If you have any questions or comments about my team's pitching, feel free to let me know!
Now, back to some more March Madness action! I might post a little during the break from 5 to 7. I'll also be working on the Run and RBI formulas.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Draft Day Strategy - Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are an interesting breed, and there are always different ideas on where they should be drafted. Some say pitching stats are volatile, and the downside for any pitcher, even a top pitcher like Johan Santana, is much greater than it is for a hitter. These people say you should wait on pitchers and grab bargains later in the draft, where you're not investing too much. Others will tell you that there are only a few elite starting pitchers, and that it's necessary to grab at least one or two early.
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Note: My strategy is designed for a twelve-team league with 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 BN spots. (typical Yahoo! setup). For 8 or 10 team leagues, target these same guys, just wait an extra round or two on them - adjust accordingly.
I advocate a strategy of moderation, somewhere between these two strategies. Find the best values, and take advantage of them. I agree that you need one stable Ace in the first three or four rounds. This year, my pick is Jake Peavy, our #3 SP. The seventh pitcher taken overall, with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of Round 5.04, Peavy is a good value in the fourth round of a twelve team draft.
Round 1-3 and 5-6 should be used on hitters.
Round 7 should be used on your next value pitchers. My favorite pick here is Felix Hernandez. The first player profiled on the Saberoticians back in February, Hernandez is our #4 SP. In the 7th round, normally going off as the 14th SP in expert drafts, Hernandez is a great value. If he is gone, hope Ben Sheets falls to you. Sheets is our #2 SP, but always seems to be injured. I prefer Felix, but Sheets is good too. If both are gone, John Smoltz works too, but be a little upset you didn't get either of your top 2 choices.
Round 10 comes our next spot for SP value.
Curt Schilling, our #5 Starting Pitcher, is a fantastic pick this late in the draft. 'Experts' find him to be 27th best SP. Help me prove them wrong. At this point, you now have 3 of the best 5 Starting Pitchers on your team and only had to use 1 of your first 5 picks.
Here's where you can deviate a little if you choose. If you feel good about your offense and you think you can spare another pick in the early teens on a SP, Mike Mussina would be a great choice. A.J. Burnett is also a good guy to target here, or Rich Harden if he falls (although he is risky due to injury concerns).
Next comes a wave when you need to pick at least two, quite possibly all three of these guys. Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, and Dave Bush are all going off the board in the 17th Round on average, but if you didn't take Mussina or Burnett you may need to start in the 15th and go 1,2,3 in Rounds 15,16,17. If you miss out on one, Scott Olsen could be picked in his stead.
Wait until one of the last rounds to grab Jamie Shields, a guy we are fairly high on but isn't getting drafted.
If things worked out for you, you should be looking at a rotation of:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Mike Mussina
5. Javier Vazquez
BN Kelvim Escobar
BN Jamie Shields
This rotation will be the best staff in your league, without compromising your offense. You'll still have Rounds 1-3, 5-6, 8-9, 11-12, 14-16, 18-25 for offense. That's plenty, considering all the great value guys we have found for offense. It may be a little overkill, so also consider going with:
1. Jake Peavy
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Curt Schiling
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Kelvim Escobar
BN Derek Lowe
BN Jamie Shields
Don't freak out if you miss out on somebody though. If you're lucky, Roger Clemens may fall into your lap in the late rounds. He isn't worth taking early because he will only pitch a few months, but he's a top 10 SP when he does throw. Also, Philip Hughes will be on the way towards the middle of the year, so be ready to pick him up off the Waiver Wire.
Sources:
ADP information came from Fantasy Gameday
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Undervalued Player Alert: Felix Hernandez - #4 SP
While almost everyone in the baseball community feels as though Felix Hernandex will one day become one of the premier pitchers in the game, we here at The Saberoticians feel as though he will be that pitcher in 2007. Despite an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 8.69 in 12-team expert leagues (researched by Fantasy Gameday), King Felix checks in at #4 on our Starting Pitcher Rankings.
The most obvious stat we are attracted to is his 8.29 K/9. Anybody who can strikeout nearly a batter per inning has a head start on becoming an excellent pitcher. When 1/3 of your outs come without the batter putting the ball in play, it leaves much less opportunity for you to get unlucky. His 2.83 BB/9 is also quite appealing. The less runners you freely put on base, the less of them can score. While his 2.93 K/BB is not premium, it is still very good. We expect it to climb above 3 this year.
And the best part is that Felix Hernandez is still just 21 years old. While strikeout and walk rates tend to be consistent from year to year, they are much more likely to improve among younger players. An added bonus is that Felix is entering his third season in the majors, a prime breakout year for pitchers. We expect a K/9 rating somewhere between 8.5 and 9.0 and a BB/9 rating in the mid 2s.
While his Ks and BBs are appealing, they are not the primary reason we think Felix Hernandez will become the best pitcher (behind Francisco Liriano, who we will analyze not too far in the future) in the American League by 2009. His groundball percentage is incredible! Without going too deep into it, the basic idea is that the more balls you force the batters to hit on the ground, the less will go over the fence for home runs. Groundballs are fielded for outs 72% of the time, as shown by the research of The Hardball Times. They also have the added bonus of turning into double plays.
Felix Hernandez had groundball percentage of 57.7% (also displayed by the The Hardball Times) in 2006. In contrast, Johan Santana had a 40.6% groundball rating. By keeping the ball on the ground as often as he does, Felix should keep the ball in the park more often than any other pitcher with his K/9.
And therein lies the reason we are so high on Felix Hernandez. The combination of a high K/9, low BB/9, and high Groundball percentage makes Felix one of the most lethal pitchers in baseball and should provide you with one of the top fantasy seasons among starting pitchers.
The most obvious stat we are attracted to is his 8.29 K/9. Anybody who can strikeout nearly a batter per inning has a head start on becoming an excellent pitcher. When 1/3 of your outs come without the batter putting the ball in play, it leaves much less opportunity for you to get unlucky. His 2.83 BB/9 is also quite appealing. The less runners you freely put on base, the less of them can score. While his 2.93 K/BB is not premium, it is still very good. We expect it to climb above 3 this year.
And the best part is that Felix Hernandez is still just 21 years old. While strikeout and walk rates tend to be consistent from year to year, they are much more likely to improve among younger players. An added bonus is that Felix is entering his third season in the majors, a prime breakout year for pitchers. We expect a K/9 rating somewhere between 8.5 and 9.0 and a BB/9 rating in the mid 2s.
While his Ks and BBs are appealing, they are not the primary reason we think Felix Hernandez will become the best pitcher (behind Francisco Liriano, who we will analyze not too far in the future) in the American League by 2009. His groundball percentage is incredible! Without going too deep into it, the basic idea is that the more balls you force the batters to hit on the ground, the less will go over the fence for home runs. Groundballs are fielded for outs 72% of the time, as shown by the research of The Hardball Times. They also have the added bonus of turning into double plays.
Felix Hernandez had groundball percentage of 57.7% (also displayed by the The Hardball Times) in 2006. In contrast, Johan Santana had a 40.6% groundball rating. By keeping the ball on the ground as often as he does, Felix should keep the ball in the park more often than any other pitcher with his K/9.
And therein lies the reason we are so high on Felix Hernandez. The combination of a high K/9, low BB/9, and high Groundball percentage makes Felix one of the most lethal pitchers in baseball and should provide you with one of the top fantasy seasons among starting pitchers.
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