Today the Star Ledger mentioned that Akinori Otsuka could end up closing games for the Boston Red Sox, the Florida Marlins, or the Cleveland Indians if Eric Gagne proves he is healthy.
I took Otsuka in my own league because of this possible scenario. Best case is he gets traded to a team like one of these three with good offenses and pretty good pitching. He should get a lot of save opportunities there, and he is a great pitcher to boot.
If he doesn't get traded because Gagne can't prove he's healthy, Otsuka will be closing for the Rangers. Not as good as the Sox, but not bad either. He'd still get a bunch of save opportunities.
Otsuka's current Fantasy Score is 9.87, which would put him between Octavio Dotel and Huston Street. His K/9 has been dropping since his rookie year (7.09 in 2006) but he made up for it with a stellar BB/9 in 2006 (1.66). His K/9 could pop back up over 8, and his BB/9 could rise to around 3, but as long as he can keep his K/BB around 3 with no trips south of 2, he should be a great option that you can get for cheap. His career 49.6% Groundball Percentage also helps him out a great deal. If his K/9 were to get back around 9 and his BB/9 stayed around its 2006 level (a somewhat unlikely scenario), Otsuka would probably be one of the Top 5-7 closing options out there.
Take a flier on Akinori Otsuka in deeper leagues after the closers with job security are gone. There's a decent chance he'll wrack up the saves somewhere in 2007.
Showing posts with label sleepers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sleepers. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Sleeper Alert - Moises Alou
Moises Alou is 40 years old. Moises Alou is moving to a pitcher's park. Moises Alou only played in 98 games last year. Moises Alou only had 345 At-Bats last year. Moises Alou has an injury background. Moises Alou will hit over .300 next year.
Which of these statements doesn't belong? Well, the last statement is the only positive one about Alou, so perhaps that's the right answer. Or, it's a trick question, and all of these statements are true. Yeah, that's it.
Alou is an amazing contact hitter. 89% Contact and a nearly 20% Line Drive Percentage. He's also got a 10% BB/TPA. His BB/TPA dropped to 8% last year as his P/PA dropped to 3.28, but if that bounces back a little bit Alou could contend for the batting title.
He also has some good power for a guy his age. He hit 18 True HRs last year, and since I expect him to play in more than 98 games, that number should be around 20-25 in 2007. Throw in the great lineup he is playing in for the Mets and Alou should have plenty of RBI and Run opportunities.
The only drawback to Alou is that he won't play everyday. So what kind of strategy should you employ with him? Pair him and a guy like Barry Bonds, who also won't play everyday. Those two combined will provide you with a ton of production at a fraction of the price.
Which of these statements doesn't belong? Well, the last statement is the only positive one about Alou, so perhaps that's the right answer. Or, it's a trick question, and all of these statements are true. Yeah, that's it.
Alou is an amazing contact hitter. 89% Contact and a nearly 20% Line Drive Percentage. He's also got a 10% BB/TPA. His BB/TPA dropped to 8% last year as his P/PA dropped to 3.28, but if that bounces back a little bit Alou could contend for the batting title.
He also has some good power for a guy his age. He hit 18 True HRs last year, and since I expect him to play in more than 98 games, that number should be around 20-25 in 2007. Throw in the great lineup he is playing in for the Mets and Alou should have plenty of RBI and Run opportunities.
The only drawback to Alou is that he won't play everyday. So what kind of strategy should you employ with him? Pair him and a guy like Barry Bonds, who also won't play everyday. Those two combined will provide you with a ton of production at a fraction of the price.
Friday, March 9, 2007
Sleeper Alert - Nick Johnson
Nick Johnson is known throughout the league as an injury risk, and he will begin 2007 on the DL. I've heard from various sources that he should be out through most of June. And because Johnson is a slow healer, he may not be at full strength until July.
Despite these obvious drawbacks, I recommend draft Nick Johnson in one of the last few rounds of your draft and stashing him in one of your DL spots (assuming your leagues gives you at least one or two).
An 80% Contact and 21% Line Drive Percentage make Johnson a good bet for a high average to begin with, but throw in his tendency to draw more walks than almost any other player in the game and Johnson is a great bet for a .285 to .290 average. His good, developing power helps as well. He hit 23 Home Runs and 21 True Home Runs last year, in addition to 46 2Bs and 3Bs. He Ks a decent amount, about 20%, but if his power continues to improve this shouldn't be a problem. He still has some decent players in the lineup, and his great walking ability will help him score a good amount of runs. His injury to his leg may hinder some of his opportunities, but hopefully not too many.
His injury and the loss of Alfonso Soriano will keep some people away from him; don't be one of these people. Nick Johnson is the real deal and if he were playing a full season this year would be a lock for a second or third round pick come 2008 in a good lineup.
Make sure to draft one of of our top 1B (like Jason Giambi), and if your league uses a CI spot a second good 1B (like Adam LaRoche or Nomar Garciaparra) because Johnson could miss half the season. But by the time he has proven he is healthy, the stock of Giambi or LaRoche or Garciaparra should be up enough to warrant a trade for a position of need. Then slot Johnson in that guy's spot and you should be good to go.
Sources:
As always, Batted Ball Data comes from The Hardball Times
Despite these obvious drawbacks, I recommend draft Nick Johnson in one of the last few rounds of your draft and stashing him in one of your DL spots (assuming your leagues gives you at least one or two).
An 80% Contact and 21% Line Drive Percentage make Johnson a good bet for a high average to begin with, but throw in his tendency to draw more walks than almost any other player in the game and Johnson is a great bet for a .285 to .290 average. His good, developing power helps as well. He hit 23 Home Runs and 21 True Home Runs last year, in addition to 46 2Bs and 3Bs. He Ks a decent amount, about 20%, but if his power continues to improve this shouldn't be a problem. He still has some decent players in the lineup, and his great walking ability will help him score a good amount of runs. His injury to his leg may hinder some of his opportunities, but hopefully not too many.
His injury and the loss of Alfonso Soriano will keep some people away from him; don't be one of these people. Nick Johnson is the real deal and if he were playing a full season this year would be a lock for a second or third round pick come 2008 in a good lineup.
Make sure to draft one of of our top 1B (like Jason Giambi), and if your league uses a CI spot a second good 1B (like Adam LaRoche or Nomar Garciaparra) because Johnson could miss half the season. But by the time he has proven he is healthy, the stock of Giambi or LaRoche or Garciaparra should be up enough to warrant a trade for a position of need. Then slot Johnson in that guy's spot and you should be good to go.
Sources:
As always, Batted Ball Data comes from The Hardball Times
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers
A followup to our Draft Strategy article on closers posted early today, we'll now examine the 3 closers I mentioned as good targets for the later rounds of your draft.
Takashi Saito
I have no idea why people are so down on Saito. Even his luck-influenced numbers that most people focus on were amazing last year - 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. He didn't get a ton of Saves (24), but again, this can fluctuate from year to year. His peripheral numbers are very good.
He had a 12.29 K/9 and a 2.64 BB/9, making for an incredible 4.65 K/BB. His K/9 may drop to 8 or 9 this year, but that is still very good. His 35.5% GB Percentage isn't very good, his his great strikeout rate and command more than make up for it. He will give up more HRs this year, but in the late rounds he is a great pick.
The only reason that I can think of for people not like Saito is that they may be afraid he is the next Shingo Takatsu... but he's not. Takatsu only K'ed 7 per 9 innings and his K/BB was 2.38 in his first season. Saito's K/9 and BB/9 were both better than Takatsu's in his first season. While Saito may regress a little in each, he still deserves a spot on your team.
Jose Valverde
Valverde has never had a K/BB below 2.24, and it hasn't gone below 3 in two years. He K's massive amounts of batters, between 10 and 13 K/9 each year. His GB Percentage is fairly low, 35%, so he will give up a few HRs. But he is an excellent late round target for some cheap saves. The only thing to worry about with Valverde is if he can keep his job. He never seems to be able to, but one of these years his great peripherals will translate to great success.
Octavio Dotel
Dotel has pitched just 25 innings the past two years combined, but he has a ton of talent. Another guy with a K/9 consistently over 10, he also has good control for a guy who Ks as many batters as he does. Count on a K/BB over 3. His GB Percentage is extremely poor, 30%, so again, HRs are to be expected, but his good power and command make him worth it for his low price tag. He may not see a ton of Save Opportunities because he's a Royal, but that's alright. He'll get just as many as a lot of the guys taken 5 or 10 rounds earlier.
These guys all have great K/9 and great K/BB. The drawback is that they have low GB Percentages, and therefore are more prone to the longball. Don't be discouraged if they give up a few though. As I said in my previous article, the ERA of these guys isn't very important. They will blow a few saves in games where they only have 1 run leads, but not enough that they aren't still great values towards the end of the draft.
Bottom line: Avoid closers early, load up on your more important players, and grab these guys late.
Takashi Saito
I have no idea why people are so down on Saito. Even his luck-influenced numbers that most people focus on were amazing last year - 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. He didn't get a ton of Saves (24), but again, this can fluctuate from year to year. His peripheral numbers are very good.
He had a 12.29 K/9 and a 2.64 BB/9, making for an incredible 4.65 K/BB. His K/9 may drop to 8 or 9 this year, but that is still very good. His 35.5% GB Percentage isn't very good, his his great strikeout rate and command more than make up for it. He will give up more HRs this year, but in the late rounds he is a great pick.
The only reason that I can think of for people not like Saito is that they may be afraid he is the next Shingo Takatsu... but he's not. Takatsu only K'ed 7 per 9 innings and his K/BB was 2.38 in his first season. Saito's K/9 and BB/9 were both better than Takatsu's in his first season. While Saito may regress a little in each, he still deserves a spot on your team.
Jose Valverde
Valverde has never had a K/BB below 2.24, and it hasn't gone below 3 in two years. He K's massive amounts of batters, between 10 and 13 K/9 each year. His GB Percentage is fairly low, 35%, so he will give up a few HRs. But he is an excellent late round target for some cheap saves. The only thing to worry about with Valverde is if he can keep his job. He never seems to be able to, but one of these years his great peripherals will translate to great success.
Octavio Dotel
Dotel has pitched just 25 innings the past two years combined, but he has a ton of talent. Another guy with a K/9 consistently over 10, he also has good control for a guy who Ks as many batters as he does. Count on a K/BB over 3. His GB Percentage is extremely poor, 30%, so again, HRs are to be expected, but his good power and command make him worth it for his low price tag. He may not see a ton of Save Opportunities because he's a Royal, but that's alright. He'll get just as many as a lot of the guys taken 5 or 10 rounds earlier.
These guys all have great K/9 and great K/BB. The drawback is that they have low GB Percentages, and therefore are more prone to the longball. Don't be discouraged if they give up a few though. As I said in my previous article, the ERA of these guys isn't very important. They will blow a few saves in games where they only have 1 run leads, but not enough that they aren't still great values towards the end of the draft.
Bottom line: Avoid closers early, load up on your more important players, and grab these guys late.
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