Player Strategy Update - Takashi Saito

Version 3 of the Expert ADP Report just came out, and we have an update on Takashi Saito. He is going in Round 10, on average, in a 12-team draft. I now recommend everyone stay away from Saito as he is going much too early. If you are in a Yahoo! league, however, his Yahoo! rank puts him in Round 18. If he is still there in Round 17 or 18, pull the trigger on him.

If Saito is gone, be sure to target Jose Valverde in Round 17 or 18, as well as Octavio Dotel in the same area. If you aren't able to snag two of those guys, it might be a smart move to grab Ryan Dempster in Round 22 or 23.

Other closers of note include Jason Isringhausen in Round 17, Salomon Torres in Round 19, and Armando Benitez in Round 23. Of those choices, as long as I got Valverde, Saito, or Dotel, I would probably take Dempster in Round 22.

Don't panic if Dempster is gone or if you have another player that is too much of a value to pass up on. Even the intelligence of picking Dempster could be argued considering all of the guys who will get a chance to close this year. If you read the post before this - Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings - you'll notice that there are tons of Closer jobs that are either still being fought over or will open up due to injury or poor performance.

While Mike Timlin isn't the most talented player, the Red Sox closer is bound to get at least 35 or 40 opportunities to close games and he could be a good choice in the closing rounds of a draft, although his job security isn't very good. I doubt the Red Sox will be relying on Timlin down the stretch. Could a trade for a guy like Octavio Dotel be in the cards, maybe?

The winner of the Marlins job is also bound to get a decent amount of save opportunities with a pretty good offense and some decent starting pitchers. All of their options seem to be more talented than Timlin. Kevin Gregg is the front runner now, but Henry Owens is a great pitcher too should he win the job. Taylor Tankersley was one of my targets in drafts a few months back, so if he should recover well from his injury and take the job be sure to pick him up right away. If Gregg doesn't get drafted and ends up winning the job, makes sure to grab him. He might even be a better option than Dempster in the draft. You're just taking the risk he doesn't close games come April 1st.

Anyway, I think that should be enough Closer talk for a while. I sure seem to have talked a lot about end-game stoppers considering how overvalued I think they are.

Sources:
Fantasy Gameday for Version 3 of the Experts ADP Report.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Closers

These rankings are more for informational purposes than anything else, as we don't advocate taking closers early. For more Closer information, read these two articles we've recently written on the subject. In short, wait until the late rounds of the draft to take closers.

Draft Day Strategy - Closers
Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

Like our Starting Pitcher Rankings, these don't take injury risk into account. While Gagne is #1, I wouldn't recommend drafting him - even if I recommended drafting top closers in general - because he is a huge risk and has Akinori Otsuka (a great option if Gagne does go down) breathing down his neck. Our Closer Rankings include player's involved in Closer Battles, not just the front runners.

Lastly, these Closer Rankings only represent the player's skill, not his likely hood to receive save opportunities. As this is a delicate thing to predict, we aren't even going to attempt it. We don't have a scientific way of doing it at the moment, but it is something we will be looking into for 2008. This is explained more in our Draft Day Strategy article on Closers.

Without further ado, our Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings.

Rank	Pitcher	Score
1	Eric Gagne	13.59
2	Joe Nathan	12.86
3	Brad Lidge	12.86
4	Francisco Rodriguez	12.36
5	Billy Wagner	12.32
6	B.J. Ryan	12.22
7	J.J. Putz	11.10
8	Jonathan Papelbon	10.78
9	Jose Valverde	10.68
10	Bobby Jenks	10.65
11	Tom Gordon	10.36
12	Mariano Rivera	10.26
13	Takashi Saito	9.91
14	Octavio Dotel	9.90
15	Huston Street	9.76
16	Francisco Cordero	9.63
17	Trevor Hoffman	9.34
18	Brian Fuentes	9.34
19	Chad Cordero	8.91
20	Jorge Julio	8.71
21	Jason Isringhausen	8.66
22	Danny Miceli	8.45
23	Bob Wickman	8.39
24	Chris Ray	8.28
25	Ryan Dempster	8.12
26	Armando Benitez	8.07
27	Arthur Rhodes	7.87
28	Salomon Torres	7.80
29	Chris Reitsma	7.79
30	Dustin Hermanson	7.70
31	Bill Bray	7.49
32	Joe Borowski	7.34
33	Mike Stanton	7.18
34	David Weathers	7.13
35	Todd Coffey	7.10
36	Todd Jones	7.05
37	Seth McClung	5.26

Teams that have closer jobs up for grabs include:

Reds

Red Sox

Devil Rays

Marlins (Tankersley's DLed to start the year and Owens and Lindstrom aren't included, but Owens is a good sleeper if he gets the job)

Teams whose closer has an above average chance of getting injured or losing his job by year's end:

Tigers

Rangers

Braves

Cubs

Pirates

Cards

Giants

Phillies

Indians

The two lists above illustrate one of my biggest arguments for waiting on closers. Guys will be available on the waiver wire, and this year, lots of great options will be.

UPDATE 3/9: Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Craig Hansen, and Jonathan Papelbon added with the news of Mike Timlin's injury (Thanks to Jason McAdams of My Baseball Bias for the tip). I wouldn't touch any of these guys until something is resolved. Unless Papelbon takes the job, which doctors continue to say he shouldn't do for health reasons, I don't see the Red Sox trusting any of these guys in their run for the playoffs. I see a mid-season trade as the most likely scenario.

UPDATE: 3/16: Julian Tavarez, Chris Reitsma, and Arthur Rhodes added.

UPDATE: 3/26: All Red Sox (except Jonathan Papelbon) removed with news that Papelbon will close. Dustin Hermanson added.

UPDATE: 3/26: Jorge Julio added with the news that he has been traded to the Marlins.

Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

A followup to our Draft Strategy article on closers posted early today, we'll now examine the 3 closers I mentioned as good targets for the later rounds of your draft.

Takashi Saito
I have no idea why people are so down on Saito. Even his luck-influenced numbers that most people focus on were amazing last year - 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. He didn't get a ton of Saves (24), but again, this can fluctuate from year to year. His peripheral numbers are very good.

He had a 12.29 K/9 and a 2.64 BB/9, making for an incredible 4.65 K/BB. His K/9 may drop to 8 or 9 this year, but that is still very good. His 35.5% GB Percentage isn't very good, his his great strikeout rate and command more than make up for it. He will give up more HRs this year, but in the late rounds he is a great pick.

The only reason that I can think of for people not like Saito is that they may be afraid he is the next Shingo Takatsu... but he's not. Takatsu only K'ed 7 per 9 innings and his K/BB was 2.38 in his first season. Saito's K/9 and BB/9 were both better than Takatsu's in his first season. While Saito may regress a little in each, he still deserves a spot on your team.

Jose Valverde
Valverde has never had a K/BB below 2.24, and it hasn't gone below 3 in two years. He K's massive amounts of batters, between 10 and 13 K/9 each year. His GB Percentage is fairly low, 35%, so he will give up a few HRs. But he is an excellent late round target for some cheap saves. The only thing to worry about with Valverde is if he can keep his job. He never seems to be able to, but one of these years his great peripherals will translate to great success.

Octavio Dotel
Dotel has pitched just 25 innings the past two years combined, but he has a ton of talent. Another guy with a K/9 consistently over 10, he also has good control for a guy who Ks as many batters as he does. Count on a K/BB over 3. His GB Percentage is extremely poor, 30%, so again, HRs are to be expected, but his good power and command make him worth it for his low price tag. He may not see a ton of Save Opportunities because he's a Royal, but that's alright. He'll get just as many as a lot of the guys taken 5 or 10 rounds earlier.

These guys all have great K/9 and great K/BB. The drawback is that they have low GB Percentages, and therefore are more prone to the longball. Don't be discouraged if they give up a few though. As I said in my previous article, the ERA of these guys isn't very important. They will blow a few saves in games where they only have 1 run leads, but not enough that they aren't still great values towards the end of the draft.

Bottom line: Avoid closers early, load up on your more important players, and grab these guys late.