Waiver Wire - American League

Today we'll go over the American League Waiver Wire, and tomorrow we'll do the National League.

American League

Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland 'pen. The A's say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he's available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven't affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you've forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We're going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I'm still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion's void in one league, and I'll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He's got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don't get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won't be as valuable, but there's a good chance that won't happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.

Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He's a tough one to predict, but he'll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It'll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.

Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS's Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I'm not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it's at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won't hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn't have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.

Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he'll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he's a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.

Joakim Soria to Close for Royals

Joakim Soria is expected to take the place of David Riske as Kansas City's temporary closer. Octavio Dotel should be back within a few weeks, but until then Soria could provide some value in most leagues. If you're in need of a closer, try Soria. I like Owens better, but Soria is well worth a roster spot for those of you desperate for some cheap saves.

My Team's Pitching Staff

I've been posting rankings and advice and reasons behind them, but I've never actually mentioned any of my own teams. Today I'll go over my pitching staff in my favorite league. I play in it with a bunch of my friends, and I find this to be the most fun league I play in. Here's my pitching staff in addition to the round I took him in.

This is a Yahoo! league with the following roster spots:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, LF, CF, RF, OF, OF, UT
SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P
5 Bench Spots

It is a 10-team league and our draft lasted 25 rounds. I had the 10th pick. Two rounds are given as I had back-to-back picks and it didn't matter which of the two rounds I technically took him in.

3/4. Jake Peavy - perhaps a round early, but I wanted him badly.
5/6. Felix Hernandez - Yahoo! has him ranked very highly and he was the second pitcher left on Yahoo!s board when I took him; I couldn't risk not getting him in the next round as I'd planned.
9/10. Curt Schilling - I love Schilling, and I think he is a steal here.
9/10. Brett Myers - Myers had normally been going in Round 8 in 10 team leagues, and I thought he was a good value here. I also knew that my friend was targeting Burnett, Bush, Escobar, and Vazquez late, so taking Myers here insured I wouldn't end up with too few quality pitchers. I hadn't intended on taking Myers, but with Chipper Jones gone and my next few targets a reach here, Myers seemed like the right pick.
17/18. Javier Vazquez - As I suspected, A.J. Burnett was taken the pick before by my friend and I had to settle for Vazquez. Kelvim Escobar was taken by the same friend with the second pick of Round 18. Surprisingly, another friend liked Bush more than I do and took him in Round 16. Looks like Myers was a good pick.
19/20. Octavio Dotel - Valverde went in Round 16, earlier than I would have liked, and my friend who took Burnett and Escobar took Saito right before I could here. I settled for my third choice, Dotel. Not a huge problem, as I will surely find some good bargains on the waiver wire throughout the year.
21/22. Scott Olsen - I'd rather have Escobar, Vazquez, or Bush as my #5 SP, but I could do worse than Olsen.
23/24. Derek Lowe - Not who I wanted to get, but he will provide a good ERA. Considering the K-machine I'd built throughout the draft, I could afford an average amount of Ks from Lowe. His WHIP will be decent, not great. Could have done worse. Philip Hughes or possibly Mike Pelfrey will most likely take his spot on my roster later in the year. Roger Clemens could as well if the guy who drafted him gets sick of waiting and drops him.
25 - Akinori Otsuka - Last pick of the draft, no closers left who are guaranteed a job... Otsuka seemed like a decent pick. I don't intend for him to be on my roster on April 1st, but seeing as how my draft was held in Mid-February I thought I'd see how Eric Gagne held up through Spring Training. I will probably drop him within the next couple weeks and pick up Kevin Gregg if Gagne doesn't get hurt and the Marlins give Gregg the job to start the season. My league - correctly - doesn't value Middle Relievers very highly, and Otsuka should still be there should Gagne go down later in the year.

The staff I hoped to get:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Valverde
RP Saito
P Schilling
P Burnett
P Vazquez
BN Escobar
BN Bush/Olsen/Dotel

The staff I ended up with:
SP Peavy
SP Felix
RP Dotel
RP Otsuka (Gregg)
P Schilling
P Myers
P Vazquez
BN Olsen
BN Lowe

Overall I think I did pretty well. I missed my closers, but I should be able to get some quality guys throughout the year, as I've been preaching for a while now.

If you have any questions or comments about my team's pitching, feel free to let me know!

Now, back to some more March Madness action! I might post a little during the break from 5 to 7. I'll also be working on the Run and RBI formulas.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Closers

These rankings are more for informational purposes than anything else, as we don't advocate taking closers early. For more Closer information, read these two articles we've recently written on the subject. In short, wait until the late rounds of the draft to take closers.

Draft Day Strategy - Closers
Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

Like our Starting Pitcher Rankings, these don't take injury risk into account. While Gagne is #1, I wouldn't recommend drafting him - even if I recommended drafting top closers in general - because he is a huge risk and has Akinori Otsuka (a great option if Gagne does go down) breathing down his neck. Our Closer Rankings include player's involved in Closer Battles, not just the front runners.

Lastly, these Closer Rankings only represent the player's skill, not his likely hood to receive save opportunities. As this is a delicate thing to predict, we aren't even going to attempt it. We don't have a scientific way of doing it at the moment, but it is something we will be looking into for 2008. This is explained more in our Draft Day Strategy article on Closers.

Without further ado, our Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings.

Rank	Pitcher	Score
1	Eric Gagne	13.59
2	Joe Nathan	12.86
3	Brad Lidge	12.86
4	Francisco Rodriguez	12.36
5	Billy Wagner	12.32
6	B.J. Ryan	12.22
7	J.J. Putz	11.10
8	Jonathan Papelbon	10.78
9	Jose Valverde	10.68
10	Bobby Jenks	10.65
11	Tom Gordon	10.36
12	Mariano Rivera	10.26
13	Takashi Saito	9.91
14	Octavio Dotel	9.90
15	Huston Street	9.76
16	Francisco Cordero	9.63
17	Trevor Hoffman	9.34
18	Brian Fuentes	9.34
19	Chad Cordero	8.91
20	Jorge Julio	8.71
21	Jason Isringhausen	8.66
22	Danny Miceli	8.45
23	Bob Wickman	8.39
24	Chris Ray	8.28
25	Ryan Dempster	8.12
26	Armando Benitez	8.07
27	Arthur Rhodes	7.87
28	Salomon Torres	7.80
29	Chris Reitsma	7.79
30	Dustin Hermanson	7.70
31	Bill Bray	7.49
32	Joe Borowski	7.34
33	Mike Stanton	7.18
34	David Weathers	7.13
35	Todd Coffey	7.10
36	Todd Jones	7.05
37	Seth McClung	5.26

Teams that have closer jobs up for grabs include:

Reds

Red Sox

Devil Rays

Marlins (Tankersley's DLed to start the year and Owens and Lindstrom aren't included, but Owens is a good sleeper if he gets the job)

Teams whose closer has an above average chance of getting injured or losing his job by year's end:

Tigers

Rangers

Braves

Cubs

Pirates

Cards

Giants

Phillies

Indians

The two lists above illustrate one of my biggest arguments for waiting on closers. Guys will be available on the waiver wire, and this year, lots of great options will be.

UPDATE 3/9: Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Craig Hansen, and Jonathan Papelbon added with the news of Mike Timlin's injury (Thanks to Jason McAdams of My Baseball Bias for the tip). I wouldn't touch any of these guys until something is resolved. Unless Papelbon takes the job, which doctors continue to say he shouldn't do for health reasons, I don't see the Red Sox trusting any of these guys in their run for the playoffs. I see a mid-season trade as the most likely scenario.

UPDATE: 3/16: Julian Tavarez, Chris Reitsma, and Arthur Rhodes added.

UPDATE: 3/26: All Red Sox (except Jonathan Papelbon) removed with news that Papelbon will close. Dustin Hermanson added.

UPDATE: 3/26: Jorge Julio added with the news that he has been traded to the Marlins.

Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

A followup to our Draft Strategy article on closers posted early today, we'll now examine the 3 closers I mentioned as good targets for the later rounds of your draft.

Takashi Saito
I have no idea why people are so down on Saito. Even his luck-influenced numbers that most people focus on were amazing last year - 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. He didn't get a ton of Saves (24), but again, this can fluctuate from year to year. His peripheral numbers are very good.

He had a 12.29 K/9 and a 2.64 BB/9, making for an incredible 4.65 K/BB. His K/9 may drop to 8 or 9 this year, but that is still very good. His 35.5% GB Percentage isn't very good, his his great strikeout rate and command more than make up for it. He will give up more HRs this year, but in the late rounds he is a great pick.

The only reason that I can think of for people not like Saito is that they may be afraid he is the next Shingo Takatsu... but he's not. Takatsu only K'ed 7 per 9 innings and his K/BB was 2.38 in his first season. Saito's K/9 and BB/9 were both better than Takatsu's in his first season. While Saito may regress a little in each, he still deserves a spot on your team.

Jose Valverde
Valverde has never had a K/BB below 2.24, and it hasn't gone below 3 in two years. He K's massive amounts of batters, between 10 and 13 K/9 each year. His GB Percentage is fairly low, 35%, so he will give up a few HRs. But he is an excellent late round target for some cheap saves. The only thing to worry about with Valverde is if he can keep his job. He never seems to be able to, but one of these years his great peripherals will translate to great success.

Octavio Dotel
Dotel has pitched just 25 innings the past two years combined, but he has a ton of talent. Another guy with a K/9 consistently over 10, he also has good control for a guy who Ks as many batters as he does. Count on a K/BB over 3. His GB Percentage is extremely poor, 30%, so again, HRs are to be expected, but his good power and command make him worth it for his low price tag. He may not see a ton of Save Opportunities because he's a Royal, but that's alright. He'll get just as many as a lot of the guys taken 5 or 10 rounds earlier.

These guys all have great K/9 and great K/BB. The drawback is that they have low GB Percentages, and therefore are more prone to the longball. Don't be discouraged if they give up a few though. As I said in my previous article, the ERA of these guys isn't very important. They will blow a few saves in games where they only have 1 run leads, but not enough that they aren't still great values towards the end of the draft.

Bottom line: Avoid closers early, load up on your more important players, and grab these guys late.