Julio Out As Marlins Closer... And Some Closer Ramblings

I mentioned it a few days ago a little early, but it is now official. Jorge Julio is no longer the closer for the Florida Marlins. A replacement has not been announced, but one would think Henry Owens will be the one to get the call. He earned the save earlier in the week when Julio had pitched two consecutive nights and couldn't go a third. Taylor Tankerlsey is coming back from the DL and could take the job later on; I don't expect him to get it immediately. Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, and Lee Gardner are also in the mix. I have picked Owens up in the league I've mentioned on here before. I dropped Akinori Otsuka with Eric Gagne coming back tomorrow and set to take the closer's role immediately.

I'm very disappointed with Otsuka, who earned me (and anyone else who picked him up) just one save over the past two weeks. This wasn't his fault, obviously, but I was hoping for more. I'm hoping now that the team of Henry Owens and Salomon Torres (in addition to Octavio Dotel when he returns) can increase my standing in the Saves category... at least until another good reliever takes over a closer job.

That's the beauty of my strategy. Even though Otsuka didn't work out, he was a low risk player who cost me nothing. Owens and Torres are exactly the same. Eventually things will even out and I will be able to get 6 or 7 points for Saves (in my 10-team league), as opposed to the 2 I have now. I don't expect to finish the year with Owens or Torres on my team, but I'll take what I can get from them now and then take what I can get from other guys later. Add it all up and I - and hopefully you - will have amassed a good number of saves come September.

Gagne to Begin Year on DL

It was only a matter of time. Eric Gagne will begin the season on the Disabled List. The Rangers insist that he is not injured and that they just want him to pitch more innings to get ready. This is a great news for the opportunists out there. Snag Akinori Otsuka off your waiver wire if you are someone like me who didn't overspend on closers in your draft.

Otsuka will serve as the Rangers closer for at least two weeks, possibly longer. In this time he could get you an extremely cheap 8-10 saves paired with a low ERA and WHIP and a handful of Ks. You can't say this about some of the closers that were picked in the teens in your draft. Of course after two weeks Gagne will be back and Ostuka will return to his setup role, but in that time you will have picked up a bunch of cheap saves. Otsuka has a Fantasy Score of 9.87, good for a rank of 15 between Octavio Dotel and Huston Street.

If you monitor situations like these and are able to juggle your closers, you will be able to compete for top points in the Saves category for very little cost.

Sleeper Alert: Akinori Otsuka

Today the Star Ledger mentioned that Akinori Otsuka could end up closing games for the Boston Red Sox, the Florida Marlins, or the Cleveland Indians if Eric Gagne proves he is healthy.

I took Otsuka in my own league because of this possible scenario. Best case is he gets traded to a team like one of these three with good offenses and pretty good pitching. He should get a lot of save opportunities there, and he is a great pitcher to boot.

If he doesn't get traded because Gagne can't prove he's healthy, Otsuka will be closing for the Rangers. Not as good as the Sox, but not bad either. He'd still get a bunch of save opportunities.

Otsuka's current Fantasy Score is 9.87, which would put him between Octavio Dotel and Huston Street. His K/9 has been dropping since his rookie year (7.09 in 2006) but he made up for it with a stellar BB/9 in 2006 (1.66). His K/9 could pop back up over 8, and his BB/9 could rise to around 3, but as long as he can keep his K/BB around 3 with no trips south of 2, he should be a great option that you can get for cheap. His career 49.6% Groundball Percentage also helps him out a great deal. If his K/9 were to get back around 9 and his BB/9 stayed around its 2006 level (a somewhat unlikely scenario), Otsuka would probably be one of the Top 5-7 closing options out there.

Take a flier on Akinori Otsuka in deeper leagues after the closers with job security are gone. There's a decent chance he'll wrack up the saves somewhere in 2007.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Closers

These rankings are more for informational purposes than anything else, as we don't advocate taking closers early. For more Closer information, read these two articles we've recently written on the subject. In short, wait until the late rounds of the draft to take closers.

Draft Day Strategy - Closers
Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

Like our Starting Pitcher Rankings, these don't take injury risk into account. While Gagne is #1, I wouldn't recommend drafting him - even if I recommended drafting top closers in general - because he is a huge risk and has Akinori Otsuka (a great option if Gagne does go down) breathing down his neck. Our Closer Rankings include player's involved in Closer Battles, not just the front runners.

Lastly, these Closer Rankings only represent the player's skill, not his likely hood to receive save opportunities. As this is a delicate thing to predict, we aren't even going to attempt it. We don't have a scientific way of doing it at the moment, but it is something we will be looking into for 2008. This is explained more in our Draft Day Strategy article on Closers.

Without further ado, our Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings.

Rank	Pitcher	Score
1	Eric Gagne	13.59
2	Joe Nathan	12.86
3	Brad Lidge	12.86
4	Francisco Rodriguez	12.36
5	Billy Wagner	12.32
6	B.J. Ryan	12.22
7	J.J. Putz	11.10
8	Jonathan Papelbon	10.78
9	Jose Valverde	10.68
10	Bobby Jenks	10.65
11	Tom Gordon	10.36
12	Mariano Rivera	10.26
13	Takashi Saito	9.91
14	Octavio Dotel	9.90
15	Huston Street	9.76
16	Francisco Cordero	9.63
17	Trevor Hoffman	9.34
18	Brian Fuentes	9.34
19	Chad Cordero	8.91
20	Jorge Julio	8.71
21	Jason Isringhausen	8.66
22	Danny Miceli	8.45
23	Bob Wickman	8.39
24	Chris Ray	8.28
25	Ryan Dempster	8.12
26	Armando Benitez	8.07
27	Arthur Rhodes	7.87
28	Salomon Torres	7.80
29	Chris Reitsma	7.79
30	Dustin Hermanson	7.70
31	Bill Bray	7.49
32	Joe Borowski	7.34
33	Mike Stanton	7.18
34	David Weathers	7.13
35	Todd Coffey	7.10
36	Todd Jones	7.05
37	Seth McClung	5.26

Teams that have closer jobs up for grabs include:

Reds

Red Sox

Devil Rays

Marlins (Tankersley's DLed to start the year and Owens and Lindstrom aren't included, but Owens is a good sleeper if he gets the job)

Teams whose closer has an above average chance of getting injured or losing his job by year's end:

Tigers

Rangers

Braves

Cubs

Pirates

Cards

Giants

Phillies

Indians

The two lists above illustrate one of my biggest arguments for waiting on closers. Guys will be available on the waiver wire, and this year, lots of great options will be.

UPDATE 3/9: Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Craig Hansen, and Jonathan Papelbon added with the news of Mike Timlin's injury (Thanks to Jason McAdams of My Baseball Bias for the tip). I wouldn't touch any of these guys until something is resolved. Unless Papelbon takes the job, which doctors continue to say he shouldn't do for health reasons, I don't see the Red Sox trusting any of these guys in their run for the playoffs. I see a mid-season trade as the most likely scenario.

UPDATE: 3/16: Julian Tavarez, Chris Reitsma, and Arthur Rhodes added.

UPDATE: 3/26: All Red Sox (except Jonathan Papelbon) removed with news that Papelbon will close. Dustin Hermanson added.

UPDATE: 3/26: Jorge Julio added with the news that he has been traded to the Marlins.