Jeremy Accardo has officially been given the Blue Jays closing job, so make sure he is owned in every league.
Jorge Julio was traded by the Marlins today. That leaves Taylor Tankersley as the most likely candidate to get saves in Marlins bullpen... at least until Henry Owens gets back. Neither have great peripherals, but someone has to close and the Marlins closer - whoever it is at any particular time - should probably be owned in all leagues.
Showing posts with label Jorge Julio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jorge Julio. Show all posts
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Friday, May 11, 2007
Henry Owens to the DL
Henry Owens, Florida Marlins closer, has been sent to the Disabled List. So who will take his place as closer? The Marlins would eventually like to get Jorge Julio back into this role. His first outing the other day was very good, but I think it's too soon for the Marlins to trust Julio with the role. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said, "He's the guy we want. The guy's got experience to do it but we've got to build confidence in him." The player who would be the best bet to get the most saves right now is Taylor Tankersley, although his numbers haven't been very inspiring thus far (5.40 K/9 | 3.60 BB/9 | 34.5% GB).
However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.
However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Waiver Wire - National League
Here is the National League edition of Waiver Wire for this week. Again, most weeks this will be out on Saturday or Sunday. Enjoy.
National League
Henry Owens | FLA | CL - The Jasor Frasor of the National League. He hasn't pitched exceptionally well - peripheral wise - so far this year, but if his dominance in AA last year was any indication, that could change very quickly. Should be good for some saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - A highly overlooked player on draft day, I own Edwin in a couple of leagues. If his owner in your league decides to drop him, pounce on him and wait for the rebound. His Contact Rate is down from last year, but his LD Percentage and BB rates are up. His .241 BABIP won't stick. Got unlucky with HRs last year, so expect a good BA in addition to 20-25 HRs and 10 or so SBs in 2007. He hits in a good lineup, so he should get his fair share of RBIs and Runs too.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Perhaps my favorite rookie this year. Quentin had an 86% Contact Rate and 19% Line Drive rate in the minors last year, in addition to 9 HRs and 33 2Bs and 3Bs in 318 ABs. His 11.4% BB rate is also very good. He is hitting 5th tonight ahead of Byrnes, Hudson, and Tracy and behind Conor Jackson and Chris Young. If he ends up batting further down his value may diminish, but Quentin is a good player and there are a lot of players currently on rosters in my leagues that I'd take him over. Even more valuable in keeper leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Expected to bat leadoff, the Diamondbacks now have him batting at the bottom of the order. If he can pick up his game he may get the job, but Young still is valuable as a bench player as is. An 82% LD Rate and 15% LD Rate in the minors last year are nothing to drool over, but an 11.2% BB rate is. This could help him reach 20 SBs. He also has some power, hitting 21 HRs and 36 2Bs and 3Bs last year.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.
Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Johnson is getting unlucky, so if his owner drops him, or if he has been on your waiver wire from the start, consider picking him up. We don't have a ton of information to go by, but he has a 90% Contact and 19% Walk rate so far. His 11% LD Rate is something to worry about, but hes got some pop in his bat and could net some cheap HRs. 15-20 SBs is also a possibility. Hitting atop the Braves lineup should net him a ton of Runs, especially if he can keep a good BB rate.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.
Mike Pelfrey | NYM | SP - Pelfrey is a guy with great numbers last year in the minors. He has the benefit of playing with a good offense and bullpen, so if his numbers translate well to the major he could end up being a huge bargain.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Brad Penny | LAD | SP - Won't keep up this pace, but always seems to have a K/BB over 2. He is struggling mightily with that this year, and he'd need to K more guys to be productive. His GB Percentage is always good (although highly inflated so far this year), and Penny could be good back end guy for a lot of fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Could be valuable in deep leagues, especially if he gets his GB Percentage back up to its 2005 and 2006 level. He won't get a ton of Ks, but he seems to have good control and a good offense to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP - The favorite for saves at the beginning of the calendar year, Tankersley is just off the DL. Owens is the closer for now, but Tankersley has the stuff to take over if he falters.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Jorge Julio | FLA | RP - Owens hasn't posted great peripherals yet this year and has yet to strikeout a batter. It is still possible that Julio closes some games this year if he can get back on track.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Brad Lidge | HOU | RP - Similar situation to Julio. I don't expect Wheeler to falter, but if Lidge regains his dominance, which he certainly could (his peripherals aren't bad), he may take the job back by default.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings didn't have great numbers in the minors last year and doesn't have great ones in the majors either. Expect his Ks to go down and his ERA to go up.
Recommendation: Avoid in all leagues.
Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Without a starting gig, Hamilton is not worth even a bench spot in mixed leagues. If Freel or Griffey or someone gets hurt, he might be worth something. For now avoid him unless you're in a deep AL-only league.
Recommendation: Avoid in mixed leagues. Should be watched in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.
James Loney | LAD | 1B - One of my favorite minor leaguers. Will have some value if promoted and given ABs.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.
UPDATE:
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum has now been made a starting pitcher. Dominant in 2 minor league starts thus far, could be up with the big club some time this year. If his numbers translate fairly well, Lincecum could be good pitcher for fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.
National League
Henry Owens | FLA | CL - The Jasor Frasor of the National League. He hasn't pitched exceptionally well - peripheral wise - so far this year, but if his dominance in AA last year was any indication, that could change very quickly. Should be good for some saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - A highly overlooked player on draft day, I own Edwin in a couple of leagues. If his owner in your league decides to drop him, pounce on him and wait for the rebound. His Contact Rate is down from last year, but his LD Percentage and BB rates are up. His .241 BABIP won't stick. Got unlucky with HRs last year, so expect a good BA in addition to 20-25 HRs and 10 or so SBs in 2007. He hits in a good lineup, so he should get his fair share of RBIs and Runs too.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Perhaps my favorite rookie this year. Quentin had an 86% Contact Rate and 19% Line Drive rate in the minors last year, in addition to 9 HRs and 33 2Bs and 3Bs in 318 ABs. His 11.4% BB rate is also very good. He is hitting 5th tonight ahead of Byrnes, Hudson, and Tracy and behind Conor Jackson and Chris Young. If he ends up batting further down his value may diminish, but Quentin is a good player and there are a lot of players currently on rosters in my leagues that I'd take him over. Even more valuable in keeper leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Expected to bat leadoff, the Diamondbacks now have him batting at the bottom of the order. If he can pick up his game he may get the job, but Young still is valuable as a bench player as is. An 82% LD Rate and 15% LD Rate in the minors last year are nothing to drool over, but an 11.2% BB rate is. This could help him reach 20 SBs. He also has some power, hitting 21 HRs and 36 2Bs and 3Bs last year.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.
Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Johnson is getting unlucky, so if his owner drops him, or if he has been on your waiver wire from the start, consider picking him up. We don't have a ton of information to go by, but he has a 90% Contact and 19% Walk rate so far. His 11% LD Rate is something to worry about, but hes got some pop in his bat and could net some cheap HRs. 15-20 SBs is also a possibility. Hitting atop the Braves lineup should net him a ton of Runs, especially if he can keep a good BB rate.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.
Mike Pelfrey | NYM | SP - Pelfrey is a guy with great numbers last year in the minors. He has the benefit of playing with a good offense and bullpen, so if his numbers translate well to the major he could end up being a huge bargain.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Brad Penny | LAD | SP - Won't keep up this pace, but always seems to have a K/BB over 2. He is struggling mightily with that this year, and he'd need to K more guys to be productive. His GB Percentage is always good (although highly inflated so far this year), and Penny could be good back end guy for a lot of fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Could be valuable in deep leagues, especially if he gets his GB Percentage back up to its 2005 and 2006 level. He won't get a ton of Ks, but he seems to have good control and a good offense to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP - The favorite for saves at the beginning of the calendar year, Tankersley is just off the DL. Owens is the closer for now, but Tankersley has the stuff to take over if he falters.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Jorge Julio | FLA | RP - Owens hasn't posted great peripherals yet this year and has yet to strikeout a batter. It is still possible that Julio closes some games this year if he can get back on track.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Brad Lidge | HOU | RP - Similar situation to Julio. I don't expect Wheeler to falter, but if Lidge regains his dominance, which he certainly could (his peripherals aren't bad), he may take the job back by default.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings didn't have great numbers in the minors last year and doesn't have great ones in the majors either. Expect his Ks to go down and his ERA to go up.
Recommendation: Avoid in all leagues.
Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Without a starting gig, Hamilton is not worth even a bench spot in mixed leagues. If Freel or Griffey or someone gets hurt, he might be worth something. For now avoid him unless you're in a deep AL-only league.
Recommendation: Avoid in mixed leagues. Should be watched in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.
James Loney | LAD | 1B - One of my favorite minor leaguers. Will have some value if promoted and given ABs.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.
UPDATE:
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum has now been made a starting pitcher. Dominant in 2 minor league starts thus far, could be up with the big club some time this year. If his numbers translate fairly well, Lincecum could be good pitcher for fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Julio Out As Marlins Closer... And Some Closer Ramblings
I mentioned it a few days ago a little early, but it is now official. Jorge Julio is no longer the closer for the Florida Marlins. A replacement has not been announced, but one would think Henry Owens will be the one to get the call. He earned the save earlier in the week when Julio had pitched two consecutive nights and couldn't go a third. Taylor Tankerlsey is coming back from the DL and could take the job later on; I don't expect him to get it immediately. Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, and Lee Gardner are also in the mix. I have picked Owens up in the league I've mentioned on here before. I dropped Akinori Otsuka with Eric Gagne coming back tomorrow and set to take the closer's role immediately.
I'm very disappointed with Otsuka, who earned me (and anyone else who picked him up) just one save over the past two weeks. This wasn't his fault, obviously, but I was hoping for more. I'm hoping now that the team of Henry Owens and Salomon Torres (in addition to Octavio Dotel when he returns) can increase my standing in the Saves category... at least until another good reliever takes over a closer job.
That's the beauty of my strategy. Even though Otsuka didn't work out, he was a low risk player who cost me nothing. Owens and Torres are exactly the same. Eventually things will even out and I will be able to get 6 or 7 points for Saves (in my 10-team league), as opposed to the 2 I have now. I don't expect to finish the year with Owens or Torres on my team, but I'll take what I can get from them now and then take what I can get from other guys later. Add it all up and I - and hopefully you - will have amassed a good number of saves come September.
I'm very disappointed with Otsuka, who earned me (and anyone else who picked him up) just one save over the past two weeks. This wasn't his fault, obviously, but I was hoping for more. I'm hoping now that the team of Henry Owens and Salomon Torres (in addition to Octavio Dotel when he returns) can increase my standing in the Saves category... at least until another good reliever takes over a closer job.
That's the beauty of my strategy. Even though Otsuka didn't work out, he was a low risk player who cost me nothing. Owens and Torres are exactly the same. Eventually things will even out and I will be able to get 6 or 7 points for Saves (in my 10-team league), as opposed to the 2 I have now. I don't expect to finish the year with Owens or Torres on my team, but I'll take what I can get from them now and then take what I can get from other guys later. Add it all up and I - and hopefully you - will have amassed a good number of saves come September.
Monday, April 9, 2007
False Alert: Henry Owens
False Alert. Owens is not the closer. Julio just got the night off. Sorry about that. If Julio continues to struggle though expect Owens to take over.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Jorge Julio to Marlins
The Marlins acquired Jorge Julio for SP Yusmeiro Petit, whom them acquired last off-season from the Mets in the Carlos Delgado deal. It is assumed that Julio will close for the Marlins, who hadn't yet named a closer.
I don't see this as a necessary move as Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens could have been a serviceable closer for the Fish. With the move though, Julio puts himself into a very good fantasy spot. He has now been added to the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings. He has a Fantasy Score of 8.71 and is ranked #20. We expect a K/9 around 9.00, a BB/9 around 4.3, and a GB Percentage around 40%.
If you are in need of a closer and Julio is still on your waiver wire when you read this, I suggest you grab him. With a pretty good offense and decent pitching, Julio should pick up a good number of saves. He's also got some talent, contrary to the beliefs of many casual observers. Let's just hope that new Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't one of these people.
If Julio does lose his job, Taylor Tankersley, Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens would most likely take over and be just as valuable - if not more so - than Julio.
I don't see this as a necessary move as Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens could have been a serviceable closer for the Fish. With the move though, Julio puts himself into a very good fantasy spot. He has now been added to the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings. He has a Fantasy Score of 8.71 and is ranked #20. We expect a K/9 around 9.00, a BB/9 around 4.3, and a GB Percentage around 40%.
If you are in need of a closer and Julio is still on your waiver wire when you read this, I suggest you grab him. With a pretty good offense and decent pitching, Julio should pick up a good number of saves. He's also got some talent, contrary to the beliefs of many casual observers. Let's just hope that new Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't one of these people.
If Julio does lose his job, Taylor Tankersley, Gregg, Lindstrom, or Owens would most likely take over and be just as valuable - if not more so - than Julio.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Papelbon to Close
ESPN is reporting that Jonathan Papelbon will return to his role as the Boston Red Sox closer. This makes the closer pool a little deeper, as Papelbon is a quality option. I still wouldn't recommend drafting him simply because closers aren't worth early picks, as I've mentioned numerous times before.
Papelbon is good though, posting a 9.88 K/9 and a 1.71 BB/9 in 2006. His walks will probably increase, but his Ks will probably hover between 9 and 10. His GB Percentage is not good (37%), but his great command and strikeout numbers make up for it. He's already on my Closer Rankings; I'll just remove the rest of the Red Sox.
This takes a small chip out of the stock of a guy like Jorge Julio who was a potential trade target of the Red Sox. There are still teams interested in trading for a closer, but the Red Sox are one team you can remove from this list.
Papelbon is good though, posting a 9.88 K/9 and a 1.71 BB/9 in 2006. His walks will probably increase, but his Ks will probably hover between 9 and 10. His GB Percentage is not good (37%), but his great command and strikeout numbers make up for it. He's already on my Closer Rankings; I'll just remove the rest of the Red Sox.
This takes a small chip out of the stock of a guy like Jorge Julio who was a potential trade target of the Red Sox. There are still teams interested in trading for a closer, but the Red Sox are one team you can remove from this list.
Friday, March 16, 2007
Closer Updates
Julian Tavarez is apparently the frontrunner now for the Red Sox closer job. I have added him to my closer rankings, but he doesn't seem to be much better than any of the other Red Sox options. I still expect a trade if Papelbon isn't healthy enough to do the job. Armando Benitez may be an option, but no deal has been discussed yet.
J.J. Putz had an MRI this morning. The Mariners will regret trading Rafael Soriano if Putz goes down for a while. Chris Reitsma seems to be the most likely to fill the role, but he is only an average fantasy option. Arthur Rhodes is also a possibility and a slightly better fantasy option. They have both been added to the Closer Rankings. The Mariners won't pursue Armando Benitez. The news about Putz is just another reason why I dislike taking closers early.
Jorge Julio is being discussed as a trade target by the Marlins. I don't believe they need Julio, but if they get him he would most likely step right into the closer's role. His Fantasy Score is 8.71, which would put him between Kevin Gregg (the current Marlins front runner) and Jason Isringhausen. He would make a pretty good fantasy option if he landed a closer job somewhere. The Giants have also talked about Julio in case they trade Armando Benitez.
Brian Stokes is now a closer option for the Devil Rays after being converted from a starter. He has poor control and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He is decent at inducing groundballs, but I don't think he's much of an improvement over Seth McClung.
J.J. Putz had an MRI this morning. The Mariners will regret trading Rafael Soriano if Putz goes down for a while. Chris Reitsma seems to be the most likely to fill the role, but he is only an average fantasy option. Arthur Rhodes is also a possibility and a slightly better fantasy option. They have both been added to the Closer Rankings. The Mariners won't pursue Armando Benitez. The news about Putz is just another reason why I dislike taking closers early.
Jorge Julio is being discussed as a trade target by the Marlins. I don't believe they need Julio, but if they get him he would most likely step right into the closer's role. His Fantasy Score is 8.71, which would put him between Kevin Gregg (the current Marlins front runner) and Jason Isringhausen. He would make a pretty good fantasy option if he landed a closer job somewhere. The Giants have also talked about Julio in case they trade Armando Benitez.
Brian Stokes is now a closer option for the Devil Rays after being converted from a starter. He has poor control and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. He is decent at inducing groundballs, but I don't think he's much of an improvement over Seth McClung.
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