Waiver Wire - National League

Here is the National League edition of Waiver Wire for this week. Again, most weeks this will be out on Saturday or Sunday. Enjoy.

National League

Henry Owens | FLA | CL - The Jasor Frasor of the National League. He hasn't pitched exceptionally well - peripheral wise - so far this year, but if his dominance in AA last year was any indication, that could change very quickly. Should be good for some saves.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - A highly overlooked player on draft day, I own Edwin in a couple of leagues. If his owner in your league decides to drop him, pounce on him and wait for the rebound. His Contact Rate is down from last year, but his LD Percentage and BB rates are up. His .241 BABIP won't stick. Got unlucky with HRs last year, so expect a good BA in addition to 20-25 HRs and 10 or so SBs in 2007. He hits in a good lineup, so he should get his fair share of RBIs and Runs too.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Perhaps my favorite rookie this year. Quentin had an 86% Contact Rate and 19% Line Drive rate in the minors last year, in addition to 9 HRs and 33 2Bs and 3Bs in 318 ABs. His 11.4% BB rate is also very good. He is hitting 5th tonight ahead of Byrnes, Hudson, and Tracy and behind Conor Jackson and Chris Young. If he ends up batting further down his value may diminish, but Quentin is a good player and there are a lot of players currently on rosters in my leagues that I'd take him over. Even more valuable in keeper leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Expected to bat leadoff, the Diamondbacks now have him batting at the bottom of the order. If he can pick up his game he may get the job, but Young still is valuable as a bench player as is. An 82% LD Rate and 15% LD Rate in the minors last year are nothing to drool over, but an 11.2% BB rate is. This could help him reach 20 SBs. He also has some power, hitting 21 HRs and 36 2Bs and 3Bs last year.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Kelly Johnson | ATL | 2B - Johnson is getting unlucky, so if his owner drops him, or if he has been on your waiver wire from the start, consider picking him up. We don't have a ton of information to go by, but he has a 90% Contact and 19% Walk rate so far. His 11% LD Rate is something to worry about, but hes got some pop in his bat and could net some cheap HRs. 15-20 SBs is also a possibility. Hitting atop the Braves lineup should net him a ton of Runs, especially if he can keep a good BB rate.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest 8-team NL-only leagues.

Mike Pelfrey | NYM | SP - Pelfrey is a guy with great numbers last year in the minors. He has the benefit of playing with a good offense and bullpen, so if his numbers translate well to the major he could end up being a huge bargain.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Penny | LAD | SP - Won't keep up this pace, but always seems to have a K/BB over 2. He is struggling mightily with that this year, and he'd need to K more guys to be productive. His GB Percentage is always good (although highly inflated so far this year), and Penny could be good back end guy for a lot of fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Could be valuable in deep leagues, especially if he gets his GB Percentage back up to its 2005 and 2006 level. He won't get a ton of Ks, but he seems to have good control and a good offense to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Taylor Tankersley | FLA | RP - The favorite for saves at the beginning of the calendar year, Tankersley is just off the DL. Owens is the closer for now, but Tankersley has the stuff to take over if he falters.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Jorge Julio | FLA | RP - Owens hasn't posted great peripherals yet this year and has yet to strikeout a batter. It is still possible that Julio closes some games this year if he can get back on track.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and considered in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brad Lidge | HOU | RP - Similar situation to Julio. I don't expect Wheeler to falter, but if Lidge regains his dominance, which he certainly could (his peripherals aren't bad), he may take the job back by default.
Recommendation: Should be watched in 8, 10, and 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings didn't have great numbers in the minors last year and doesn't have great ones in the majors either. Expect his Ks to go down and his ERA to go up.
Recommendation: Avoid in all leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Without a starting gig, Hamilton is not worth even a bench spot in mixed leagues. If Freel or Griffey or someone gets hurt, he might be worth something. For now avoid him unless you're in a deep AL-only league.
Recommendation: Avoid in mixed leagues. Should be watched in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

James Loney | LAD | 1B - One of my favorite minor leaguers. Will have some value if promoted and given ABs.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

UPDATE:
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Drafted 10th overall in 2006, Lincecum has now been made a starting pitcher. Dominant in 2 minor league starts thus far, could be up with the big club some time this year. If his numbers translate fairly well, Lincecum could be good pitcher for fantasy teams.
Recommendation: Watch in all leagues.

Astros Promote Dan Wheeler to Closer

Get to your waiver wire quickly folks. Dan Wheeler has just surpassed Brad Lidge as Astros closer. He may already be gone, but Wheeler is a great pitcher who should rack up some saves for Houston. His fantasy score is 9.22. Lidge is still a pretty good pitcher and could resume the role later in the year, but you should feel confident riding Wheeler for now.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Closers

These rankings are more for informational purposes than anything else, as we don't advocate taking closers early. For more Closer information, read these two articles we've recently written on the subject. In short, wait until the late rounds of the draft to take closers.

Draft Day Strategy - Closers
Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

Like our Starting Pitcher Rankings, these don't take injury risk into account. While Gagne is #1, I wouldn't recommend drafting him - even if I recommended drafting top closers in general - because he is a huge risk and has Akinori Otsuka (a great option if Gagne does go down) breathing down his neck. Our Closer Rankings include player's involved in Closer Battles, not just the front runners.

Lastly, these Closer Rankings only represent the player's skill, not his likely hood to receive save opportunities. As this is a delicate thing to predict, we aren't even going to attempt it. We don't have a scientific way of doing it at the moment, but it is something we will be looking into for 2008. This is explained more in our Draft Day Strategy article on Closers.

Without further ado, our Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings.

Rank	Pitcher	Score
1	Eric Gagne	13.59
2	Joe Nathan	12.86
3	Brad Lidge	12.86
4	Francisco Rodriguez	12.36
5	Billy Wagner	12.32
6	B.J. Ryan	12.22
7	J.J. Putz	11.10
8	Jonathan Papelbon	10.78
9	Jose Valverde	10.68
10	Bobby Jenks	10.65
11	Tom Gordon	10.36
12	Mariano Rivera	10.26
13	Takashi Saito	9.91
14	Octavio Dotel	9.90
15	Huston Street	9.76
16	Francisco Cordero	9.63
17	Trevor Hoffman	9.34
18	Brian Fuentes	9.34
19	Chad Cordero	8.91
20	Jorge Julio	8.71
21	Jason Isringhausen	8.66
22	Danny Miceli	8.45
23	Bob Wickman	8.39
24	Chris Ray	8.28
25	Ryan Dempster	8.12
26	Armando Benitez	8.07
27	Arthur Rhodes	7.87
28	Salomon Torres	7.80
29	Chris Reitsma	7.79
30	Dustin Hermanson	7.70
31	Bill Bray	7.49
32	Joe Borowski	7.34
33	Mike Stanton	7.18
34	David Weathers	7.13
35	Todd Coffey	7.10
36	Todd Jones	7.05
37	Seth McClung	5.26

Teams that have closer jobs up for grabs include:

Reds

Red Sox

Devil Rays

Marlins (Tankersley's DLed to start the year and Owens and Lindstrom aren't included, but Owens is a good sleeper if he gets the job)

Teams whose closer has an above average chance of getting injured or losing his job by year's end:

Tigers

Rangers

Braves

Cubs

Pirates

Cards

Giants

Phillies

Indians

The two lists above illustrate one of my biggest arguments for waiting on closers. Guys will be available on the waiver wire, and this year, lots of great options will be.

UPDATE 3/9: Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Craig Hansen, and Jonathan Papelbon added with the news of Mike Timlin's injury (Thanks to Jason McAdams of My Baseball Bias for the tip). I wouldn't touch any of these guys until something is resolved. Unless Papelbon takes the job, which doctors continue to say he shouldn't do for health reasons, I don't see the Red Sox trusting any of these guys in their run for the playoffs. I see a mid-season trade as the most likely scenario.

UPDATE: 3/16: Julian Tavarez, Chris Reitsma, and Arthur Rhodes added.

UPDATE: 3/26: All Red Sox (except Jonathan Papelbon) removed with news that Papelbon will close. Dustin Hermanson added.

UPDATE: 3/26: Jorge Julio added with the news that he has been traded to the Marlins.