Player Strategy Update - Takashi Saito

Version 3 of the Expert ADP Report just came out, and we have an update on Takashi Saito. He is going in Round 10, on average, in a 12-team draft. I now recommend everyone stay away from Saito as he is going much too early. If you are in a Yahoo! league, however, his Yahoo! rank puts him in Round 18. If he is still there in Round 17 or 18, pull the trigger on him.

If Saito is gone, be sure to target Jose Valverde in Round 17 or 18, as well as Octavio Dotel in the same area. If you aren't able to snag two of those guys, it might be a smart move to grab Ryan Dempster in Round 22 or 23.

Other closers of note include Jason Isringhausen in Round 17, Salomon Torres in Round 19, and Armando Benitez in Round 23. Of those choices, as long as I got Valverde, Saito, or Dotel, I would probably take Dempster in Round 22.

Don't panic if Dempster is gone or if you have another player that is too much of a value to pass up on. Even the intelligence of picking Dempster could be argued considering all of the guys who will get a chance to close this year. If you read the post before this - Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings - you'll notice that there are tons of Closer jobs that are either still being fought over or will open up due to injury or poor performance.

While Mike Timlin isn't the most talented player, the Red Sox closer is bound to get at least 35 or 40 opportunities to close games and he could be a good choice in the closing rounds of a draft, although his job security isn't very good. I doubt the Red Sox will be relying on Timlin down the stretch. Could a trade for a guy like Octavio Dotel be in the cards, maybe?

The winner of the Marlins job is also bound to get a decent amount of save opportunities with a pretty good offense and some decent starting pitchers. All of their options seem to be more talented than Timlin. Kevin Gregg is the front runner now, but Henry Owens is a great pitcher too should he win the job. Taylor Tankersley was one of my targets in drafts a few months back, so if he should recover well from his injury and take the job be sure to pick him up right away. If Gregg doesn't get drafted and ends up winning the job, makes sure to grab him. He might even be a better option than Dempster in the draft. You're just taking the risk he doesn't close games come April 1st.

Anyway, I think that should be enough Closer talk for a while. I sure seem to have talked a lot about end-game stoppers considering how overvalued I think they are.

Sources:
Fantasy Gameday for Version 3 of the Experts ADP Report.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Closers

These rankings are more for informational purposes than anything else, as we don't advocate taking closers early. For more Closer information, read these two articles we've recently written on the subject. In short, wait until the late rounds of the draft to take closers.

Draft Day Strategy - Closers
Sleeper Alert - Late Round Closers

Like our Starting Pitcher Rankings, these don't take injury risk into account. While Gagne is #1, I wouldn't recommend drafting him - even if I recommended drafting top closers in general - because he is a huge risk and has Akinori Otsuka (a great option if Gagne does go down) breathing down his neck. Our Closer Rankings include player's involved in Closer Battles, not just the front runners.

Lastly, these Closer Rankings only represent the player's skill, not his likely hood to receive save opportunities. As this is a delicate thing to predict, we aren't even going to attempt it. We don't have a scientific way of doing it at the moment, but it is something we will be looking into for 2008. This is explained more in our Draft Day Strategy article on Closers.

Without further ado, our Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings.

Rank	Pitcher	Score
1	Eric Gagne	13.59
2	Joe Nathan	12.86
3	Brad Lidge	12.86
4	Francisco Rodriguez	12.36
5	Billy Wagner	12.32
6	B.J. Ryan	12.22
7	J.J. Putz	11.10
8	Jonathan Papelbon	10.78
9	Jose Valverde	10.68
10	Bobby Jenks	10.65
11	Tom Gordon	10.36
12	Mariano Rivera	10.26
13	Takashi Saito	9.91
14	Octavio Dotel	9.90
15	Huston Street	9.76
16	Francisco Cordero	9.63
17	Trevor Hoffman	9.34
18	Brian Fuentes	9.34
19	Chad Cordero	8.91
20	Jorge Julio	8.71
21	Jason Isringhausen	8.66
22	Danny Miceli	8.45
23	Bob Wickman	8.39
24	Chris Ray	8.28
25	Ryan Dempster	8.12
26	Armando Benitez	8.07
27	Arthur Rhodes	7.87
28	Salomon Torres	7.80
29	Chris Reitsma	7.79
30	Dustin Hermanson	7.70
31	Bill Bray	7.49
32	Joe Borowski	7.34
33	Mike Stanton	7.18
34	David Weathers	7.13
35	Todd Coffey	7.10
36	Todd Jones	7.05
37	Seth McClung	5.26

Teams that have closer jobs up for grabs include:

Reds

Red Sox

Devil Rays

Marlins (Tankersley's DLed to start the year and Owens and Lindstrom aren't included, but Owens is a good sleeper if he gets the job)

Teams whose closer has an above average chance of getting injured or losing his job by year's end:

Tigers

Rangers

Braves

Cubs

Pirates

Cards

Giants

Phillies

Indians

The two lists above illustrate one of my biggest arguments for waiting on closers. Guys will be available on the waiver wire, and this year, lots of great options will be.

UPDATE 3/9: Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Craig Hansen, and Jonathan Papelbon added with the news of Mike Timlin's injury (Thanks to Jason McAdams of My Baseball Bias for the tip). I wouldn't touch any of these guys until something is resolved. Unless Papelbon takes the job, which doctors continue to say he shouldn't do for health reasons, I don't see the Red Sox trusting any of these guys in their run for the playoffs. I see a mid-season trade as the most likely scenario.

UPDATE: 3/16: Julian Tavarez, Chris Reitsma, and Arthur Rhodes added.

UPDATE: 3/26: All Red Sox (except Jonathan Papelbon) removed with news that Papelbon will close. Dustin Hermanson added.

UPDATE: 3/26: Jorge Julio added with the news that he has been traded to the Marlins.