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Thursday, March 29, 2007

Mailbag: Multi-Player Trade

Back with another edition of the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Mailbag. After this I'm getting back to work on the formulas and rankings. After reading feel free to comment on what you would do in this situation.

Luke Gloeckner wrote:
" Hey. First off: your blog is a lifesaver. There's some great knowledge on there. I just recently stumbled upon and have read through a great majority of it already. Awesome, awesome stuff!

Anyway, forgive me for doing so, but I wanted to talk through a situation with you. I'm in a keeper league that heavily favors pitching (notably, quality starts are worth more than any other stat). I'm one of those fools who ended up with Chris Young virtue of a pick in this year's draft. After drafting him, I was sifting through some stats and stumbled upon the BABIP leaders for last year and was floored by how he dwarfed the competition here. Then I found your article where you labeled him as over-hyped. So, I immediately put him on the trading block in my league (the rest of the league loved the pick when I got him) to see what value I could get for him (he is my fourth starter behind Santana, Lackey and Verlander).

The offer I was able to work out with someone is Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman and Rocco Baldelli for Garrett Atkins, Kelvim Escobar and Mike Pelfrey. Keep in mind, this is a keeper league (we keep four or five players each year). The offer's sitting on the table as of right now and I was just wondering what your thoughts on the deal were, as I've found your advice and research very valuable.

Once again, I apologize for trying to make use of you as a sounding board for trade advice but I just wanted a non-partisan opinion and through your writing, I can see yours is respectable. Write back with your thoughts, if you get the chance.


My response:
"As I said on the blog, I am not a fan of Chris Young this year. He is alright, but is highly overrated. That being said, I think you've found yourself a very favorable deal. I believe I've mentioned Atkins before on the blog; he is fantastic. He should be a first round pick next year once people realize that he is for real. While Zimmerman is alright, he is no Atkins. I have Zimmerman down for a .287 BA and Atkins for .330-ish (I'm not at my normal computer right now to get the exact figure). While Zimmerman hit 50 2Bs and 3Bs and could take a leap in HRs, Atkins is already at a high power level and has an equally good chance to continue to hit more. Atkins also has the luxury of a superior lineup.

I have Escobar ranked around #20 and Young at #33, so I obviously see that as an upgrade. I like Pelfrey a lot too, if you read my Mets Preview of the Starting Rotation. It's difficult to tell how his numbers will translate to the majors, but he certainly has a ton of potential and is definitely a good guy to have in a keeper league (Philip Hughes is another guy I love in keeper leagues).

Baldelli is so-so, not a ton of power and not a fantastic contact hitter. He's expendable for sure.

Definately do this trade.

Looking at the rest of your rotation, my advice would be to make a few more trades. I'm not big on Verlander unless he can eventually get his K/9 up to the 8.00 - 9.00 level, which seems somewhat unlikely. There are much better pitchers out there. Same goes for Lackey, who is certainly a decent pitcher but not someone you should be relying on as a #2 (after this trade Escobar will actually be your second best pitcher). Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings; I think you'll find some guys who could provide better value than Lackey or Verlander. Felix, Hamels, Kazmir, and Myers are all great young guys who are better than these two. Verlander and Lackey are both highly rated for now, so I would definitely recommend trading them both (Verlander even more so) if at all possible.

Santana is obviously a great pitcher, but I don't have him on any of my teams. His value is so high right now I actually would look into a possible trade. You could get two great players for him. I don't know how your offense is, but if it's good I would try to grab two pitchers. Felix Hernandez would be awesome, especially in a keeper league. If you could get Felix and a Hamels/Kazmir/Myers type you would be in great shape. If you could get two of these for Verlander and Lackey you probably wouldn't even need to trade Santana, unless you wanted to get an elite hitter and another good pitcher for him.

A rotation of:
Santana, Felix, Myers, Escobar is very good, but

A rotation of:
Peavy, Felix, Myers, Escobar is also very good and could net you another top hitter for your offense.

Anyway, I think I've given you a little bit to think about.

Essentially, I would advise you to make this trade and look into a few more. I hope this advice helps! Let me know how everything turns out for you!"

Please let your thoughts on this matter be heard! Comment away!

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