Buy Low: Curt Schilling (UPDATED)

I realize it's still very early in the season, but Curt Schilling had a seemingly terrible outing today (4 IP, 8 Hs, 5 ERs). If the Schilling owner in your league panics, make sure to jump on it. Schilling had a 5/2 K/BB and 5 Ks in 4 IP. He allowed 4 GBs compared to 5 FBs. This doesn't add up to 5 ERs. Schilling should bounce back. Take advantage of this if possible. Another similar outing would make him an even better buy low candidate.

UPDATE 4/3: I read this morning that Schilling will 'pitch to contact' for the first time in his career in 2007. This does not sound like good for his fantasy value. He is more of a flyball pitcher to begin with, so a dip in Ks and a spike in HRs doesn't sound very enticing. I'll be watching his next few outings closely to see how best to proceed with Schilling. Even if his K/9 does decrease to 7 or so, he should still be able to keep his BB/9 low and his K/BB around 3.

Projected Batting Averages and On-Base Percentages

UPDATE: Since we have changed our formulas for predicting Batting Average and On-Base Percentage, we've taken off these rankings.

Would Anyone Be Interested in Sabermetric Fantasy Football Rankings?

I have a question for you readers, and I would appreciate if everyone who reads my blog answers one way or another. If I were to spend the summer developing an in-depth system for Fantasy Football that uses Sabermetric principles, would you be interested?

Of course Football and Baseball are very different, but if I found meaningful stats that could tell who is valuable and who is overrated in the NFL, how many of you would want to see the rankings that a system like this would put out?

I would need to charge $10 or $15 for a Draft Guide, but if I had enough people who wanted one I would be able to spend the next 4 or 5 months developing this football system, continuing development of my baseball system, and writing to this blog.

So please, everyone who is reading this who likes what I have done with Baseball, please either comment or send me an email letting me know if you would, or would not, be interested in this Football Guide. Please let me know one way or another. Thanks everyone! I appreciate it!

Reds Cut Hermanson

It appears that the Reds have cut Dustin Hermanson, thought to be the favorite for the closer job just a few days ago. If any of you have him, dropping him seems to be a good move. See if David Weathers is still available and grab him if you were relying on Hermanson to pick up some saves early on.

New Site: Fantasy Arbiter

I just came across I new site I thought I should let you know about. It's called the Fantasy Arbiter. Have you ever had a dispute in your league over which trades should be passed and which should be nullified? Without going into detail, my own opinion is that all trades should be allowed. The problem is not everyone feels the same way, and your league's commissioner is usually the only person whose opinion matters anyway. Send in your league and trade details to the Fantasy Arbiter and he will give an outsider's, objective opinion on the trade. This should be in interesting site to watch for.

Mailbag: Pick Up Hermanson?

Here's another Mailbag question from someone who wishes to remain anonymous. Make your opinion on this known by commenting!

This person writes:
"Derek,

I just discovered your site; really impressive work. If this year's f-ball blogs were second basemen, yours would be Chase Utley.

First a tip -- Dustin Hermanson has been quietly added to the Yahoo! player list and I believe is clearing waivers in most leagues tonight.

Now my question. Who will most likely close in Cincy this year?

In a deep 14-team mixed 5x5 keeper, my droppable pitchers are Dave Weathers, John Maine, and Josh Johnson. My hope with Johnson was that the Marlins would place him on the DL sooner so that I could stash him, but they are taking their time about it. Should I drop one of these guys to put a waiver move on Hermanson?"

I responded:
"James,

Great to hear you enjoy my blog. This is a good question. Bill Bray will be on the DL, so he is completely out of the running for now. This leaves Todd Coffey, Mike Stanton, David Weathers, and Dustin Hermanson as the options. Coffey I sincerely doubt will close, even though he is just as capable as the other guys. Early on the talk was that Stanton and Weathers would share the duty. Then Weathers became more of the frontrunner to take the brunt of the work. Then Hermanson was signed, and there were whispered that if he impressed in Spring Training he could quickly slide into the closer role. Since then there have been more whispers that he will soon be named the closer. There has not been an official announcement yet, but if the season opened today I would think Hermanson is the most likely to close. Whoever gets the job in Cincy will be on a very short leash, but in a 14-team league these guys are still worth roster spots.

That being said, you seem to have a slight dilemma. Dave Weathers seems the most obvious guy to drop, but he could just as easily be closing on Sunday, so it could backfire on you. Let's take a look at Maine and Johnson. Health issues aside, I think Johnson is the slightly better pitcher in that he has more room to improve. Both have K rates a little over 7 and BB rates in the mid-to-high 3s. Johnson though has the higher GB Rate, 45% to 37%. Assuming Johnson and Maine won't be your keepers, I think this leaves either Weathers or Johnson to be dropped. While Johnson is slightly better, he will provide much less value than Maine because he will not pitch as many innings as Maine will, provided Maine stays healthy.

So, Weathers or Johnson? Or neither? This depends a little on how many guys like Akinori Otsuka or Mike Gonzalez or Joel Zumaya are on waivers. In a 14-team league, chances are these guys are gone. If they are, then I think you need to get Hermanson. If a lot of these types of guys (guys who have a shaky closer ahead of them) are available, I don't see it necessary to rush to get Hermanson as there will be better, safer options popping up throughout the year.

It also depends on your Starting Pitching. Can you afford to lose Johnson and not get him back? How good is the rest of your staff? If a guy like Jamie Shields or Philip Hughes or Oliver Perez is still on waivers, I think you can afford to lose Johnson. But then we think about the debate over SPs vs. RPs. It is much worse to lose a decent SP than it is to miss out on a so-so RP. Will Johnson be picked up right away if dropped? Would you be able to get him back again to stash on the DL once Yahoo! makes him DL eligible?

This is a very tough decision, but I would probably lean towards dropping Weathers and grabbing Hermanson, then cross your fingers for him to close. He is a better option than Weathers; let’s just hope the Reds realize this. This is the safest move to make; you won't lose your SPs and you will have the closer most likely to get save opps early on in Hermanson. If Weathers is named the closer, you may even be able to scoop him back up on Sunday.

I hope this advice helps, and I hope I am steering you in the right direction, but the Reds have been so hush-hush on this it's difficult to tell."

Run Formula Update and Asking for Some Help

I believe I have the run formula near completion. I have it working now at around 95% for players who are not really fast. But the problem comes for players who are. The problem is that I am actually overestimating Runs for fast players, not underestimating them as I had originally thought I would. I think the problem may be with Steals because right now all steals are counted as Second Base Steals.

If anyone has come across a site that provides how many attempts and successes a player has stealing second as well as third, individually, please let me know so I can finish this formula up. I will be looking on my own, but I thought letting all of you know was a good idea as well.

Thanks for your help!

Gagne to Begin Year on DL

It was only a matter of time. Eric Gagne will begin the season on the Disabled List. The Rangers insist that he is not injured and that they just want him to pitch more innings to get ready. This is a great news for the opportunists out there. Snag Akinori Otsuka off your waiver wire if you are someone like me who didn't overspend on closers in your draft.

Otsuka will serve as the Rangers closer for at least two weeks, possibly longer. In this time he could get you an extremely cheap 8-10 saves paired with a low ERA and WHIP and a handful of Ks. You can't say this about some of the closers that were picked in the teens in your draft. Of course after two weeks Gagne will be back and Ostuka will return to his setup role, but in that time you will have picked up a bunch of cheap saves. Otsuka has a Fantasy Score of 9.87, good for a rank of 15 between Octavio Dotel and Huston Street.

If you monitor situations like these and are able to juggle your closers, you will be able to compete for top points in the Saves category for very little cost.

One More Post About Personal Team Advising

I've already posted about this twice, but with Opening Day on Sunday I thought I'd mention this one more time. If you would like me to serve as your Personal Fantasy Baseball Team Advisor throughout the season, giving detailed, specific advice about your league and your team, please contact me ASAP.

With enough interest this would become my summer job and I would have a nearly unlimited amount of time to spend with each and every one of you on helping you win your leagues. This would probably cost $15-$20, but you would be getting personalized attention like you couldn't get anywhere else.

You see the types of responses the Mailbag questions get; this is the type of service you would receive, except you would get it for every player on your roster and every potential trade or waiver wire pickup you could make. I will also propose trades and pickups that I think you should make.

I need to know very soon to see if this is a possibility. If I don't get enough interest I wouldn't be able to do this as I wouldn't be able to devote the amount of time I would like to you. So if you're interested, please contact me ASAP.
Email me at:
saberoticians [at] blogspot . com

Mailbag: Multi-Player Trade

Back with another edition of the Saberoticians Fantasy Baseball Mailbag. After this I'm getting back to work on the formulas and rankings. After reading feel free to comment on what you would do in this situation.

Luke Gloeckner wrote:
" Hey. First off: your blog is a lifesaver. There's some great knowledge on there. I just recently stumbled upon and have read through a great majority of it already. Awesome, awesome stuff!

Anyway, forgive me for doing so, but I wanted to talk through a situation with you. I'm in a keeper league that heavily favors pitching (notably, quality starts are worth more than any other stat). I'm one of those fools who ended up with Chris Young virtue of a pick in this year's draft. After drafting him, I was sifting through some stats and stumbled upon the BABIP leaders for last year and was floored by how he dwarfed the competition here. Then I found your article where you labeled him as over-hyped. So, I immediately put him on the trading block in my league (the rest of the league loved the pick when I got him) to see what value I could get for him (he is my fourth starter behind Santana, Lackey and Verlander).

The offer I was able to work out with someone is Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman and Rocco Baldelli for Garrett Atkins, Kelvim Escobar and Mike Pelfrey. Keep in mind, this is a keeper league (we keep four or five players each year). The offer's sitting on the table as of right now and I was just wondering what your thoughts on the deal were, as I've found your advice and research very valuable.

Once again, I apologize for trying to make use of you as a sounding board for trade advice but I just wanted a non-partisan opinion and through your writing, I can see yours is respectable. Write back with your thoughts, if you get the chance.

Thanks!"

My response:
"As I said on the blog, I am not a fan of Chris Young this year. He is alright, but is highly overrated. That being said, I think you've found yourself a very favorable deal. I believe I've mentioned Atkins before on the blog; he is fantastic. He should be a first round pick next year once people realize that he is for real. While Zimmerman is alright, he is no Atkins. I have Zimmerman down for a .287 BA and Atkins for .330-ish (I'm not at my normal computer right now to get the exact figure). While Zimmerman hit 50 2Bs and 3Bs and could take a leap in HRs, Atkins is already at a high power level and has an equally good chance to continue to hit more. Atkins also has the luxury of a superior lineup.

I have Escobar ranked around #20 and Young at #33, so I obviously see that as an upgrade. I like Pelfrey a lot too, if you read my Mets Preview of the Starting Rotation. It's difficult to tell how his numbers will translate to the majors, but he certainly has a ton of potential and is definitely a good guy to have in a keeper league (Philip Hughes is another guy I love in keeper leagues).

Baldelli is so-so, not a ton of power and not a fantastic contact hitter. He's expendable for sure.

Definately do this trade.

Looking at the rest of your rotation, my advice would be to make a few more trades. I'm not big on Verlander unless he can eventually get his K/9 up to the 8.00 - 9.00 level, which seems somewhat unlikely. There are much better pitchers out there. Same goes for Lackey, who is certainly a decent pitcher but not someone you should be relying on as a #2 (after this trade Escobar will actually be your second best pitcher). Take a look at my Starting Pitcher Rankings; I think you'll find some guys who could provide better value than Lackey or Verlander. Felix, Hamels, Kazmir, and Myers are all great young guys who are better than these two. Verlander and Lackey are both highly rated for now, so I would definitely recommend trading them both (Verlander even more so) if at all possible.

Santana is obviously a great pitcher, but I don't have him on any of my teams. His value is so high right now I actually would look into a possible trade. You could get two great players for him. I don't know how your offense is, but if it's good I would try to grab two pitchers. Felix Hernandez would be awesome, especially in a keeper league. If you could get Felix and a Hamels/Kazmir/Myers type you would be in great shape. If you could get two of these for Verlander and Lackey you probably wouldn't even need to trade Santana, unless you wanted to get an elite hitter and another good pitcher for him.

A rotation of:
Santana, Felix, Myers, Escobar is very good, but

A rotation of:
Peavy, Felix, Myers, Escobar is also very good and could net you another top hitter for your offense.

Anyway, I think I've given you a little bit to think about.

Essentially, I would advise you to make this trade and look into a few more. I hope this advice helps! Let me know how everything turns out for you!"



Please let your thoughts on this matter be heard! Comment away!