I had a reader email today about a recent event that I'm sure has stimulated the minds of many baseball fans and Fantasy Baseball owners. J.P. Riccardi admitted a couple of days ago to lying about an injury to B.J. Ryan. During Spring Training he said that it was Ryan's back that was bothering him, while it reality is was actually a shoulder injury that he has since had to get Tommy John surgery on. The reader's email regarding this situation is below:
"Derek, I had a silly thought over the weekend, but figured I would bounce it off of you.
J.P. Riccardi, the Toronto G.M. admitted to lying about B.J Ryan's health this summer - who is now out for the year.
Today, Fantasy Baseball is a multi-million dollar industry (if not more). Being that B.J. Ryan was a top tier closer last year, many people who invested a lot of money into their leagues picked him, believing him to be healthy, only yo find out a month into the season that the GM lied - and now they are left to pick up the pieces of their teams closer situation.
What do you think of the idea of some type of lawsuit against Riccardi? Even if its not for a ton of money, but a statement type of lawsuit - that you cant go around lying about these things - b/c people lose money over it?
What do you think?"
I won't give my opinion yet, because I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. If you have an opinion on this matter or any insight to provide, please post it in the comments section. Thanks!
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
I know this has been missing the past couple of weeks; I apologize. It shouldn't happen again now that I've got more free time on my hands. I'm thinking Saturday's will be American League day and Sunday's will be for the National League from now on, and maybe Wednesday will be reserved for Buy Low/Sell High day.
American League
Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.
American League
Roger Clemens | NYY | SP - Should be owned in all leagues already, but if he's sitting out there still he should be a Top 5-7 SP once he starts throwing.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Accardo | TOR | RP - While Frasor looked like a good option when he got the Toronto closer's role, his BB rate skyrocketed and seems to have lost the trust of the team. They haven't provided a save opportunity in quite some time, but there is a good chance that it will go to Accardo the next time they do. No official announcement has been made.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Casey Janssen | TOR | RP - Janssen is another guy in the Toronto pen who could pick up some saves and could possibly take the job full-time. Only time will tell on this issue.
Recommendation: Should be watched in all leagues, and owned in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Was mentioned here a few weeks ago, and would have been the past two weeks if I had time to write it. If he is not owned yet, he probably should be. His vision seems to be corrected now, and he has pretty good contact skills. His LD rate isn't premium, but he's got a good Contact Rate and great selectivity. Could push .300. Has maybe 25 HR power potential. Batting 5th in a pretty good lineup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 35% of ESPN leagues, Blanton is showing what A's thought he was capable of when they drafted him. His K/9 is near 7 and his BB/9 is under 2, and a GB Percentage over 43% won't hurt him. Time to start owning Blanton.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
Boof Bonser | MIN | SP - A guy I liked preseason, his BB rate is higher than it was last year. His K rate is also higher though, over 9 K/9, and his GB Percentage sits around 43%. He is usable right now, and if his BB rate drops below 4 he'd be a steal off the Waiver Wire.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.
John Danks | CHW | SP - Could be useful if he can keep his K and BB rates the same. Had decent ones in the minors last year. His GB rate isn't good, so if either his Ks or his BBs slip his overall numbers will.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa | KC | SP - While his BB rate is good, his K rate is too low to be of much use in most leagues. His GB percentage isn't high enough to make up for his low K rate.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.
Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP - Not sure where this 50+% GB Rate is coming from, but couple with 7.40 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9, Gaudin should be ridden until he falters - if he does.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista | SEA | SP - Still not putting up surface numbers, but a 1.49 HR/9 and a .318 BABIP should decrease. His GB Percentage is lower than most years and his K rate is below average, but his K/BB is over 2, making him usable in certain leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 8 and 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Jarrod Washburn | SEA | SP - Has very little room for error. If his K rate drops or his BB rate increases even a little bit his K/BB will slip under 2. His GB rate has never been this high, and when it returns back under 40% Washburn will lose his value.
Recommendation: For now, should be considered in 14-team leagues. For now should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Fausto Carmona | CLE | SP - Low Ks keeps his value low in all 5x5 leagues, but his 61.3% GB rate helps him out a lot. Has a lot more value in 4x4 leagues (although his WHIP won't help you), but the recommendation below is based on 5x5 leagues.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Cliff Lee | CLE | SP - All of hype before last season was completely unfounded. Lee just doesn't have what it takes to be an good pitcher, much less an elite one. For this year, stay away from the low K and GB rates unless you're in a very deep league.
Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Milton Bradley | OAK | OF - Only owned in 0.8% of ESPN leagues, Bradley has a decent (though fluctuating) Contact Rate and great selectivity/BB rate. Has 10-15 HR power over a full season, and while on the A's stole 10 bases last year. Might get to that level again. Pretty good lineup. Worth owning in some leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
UPDATE:
Jack Cust | OAK | OF - Not a guy I would have plugged preseason, but the 3 HRs that Hit Tracker has tracked so far all had True Distances over 415 feet. He has hit two since then, so we'll see if they were legitimate or not. He's definitely got some serious power in that bat though and is hitting in the middle of the lineup. Don't expect much in the way of BA as his 36% K rate so far is absolutely horrendous, but his 17.4% BB rate is very good. The balls he does put in play should be pretty good ones.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.
Friday, May 11, 2007
Henry Owens to the DL
Henry Owens, Florida Marlins closer, has been sent to the Disabled List. So who will take his place as closer? The Marlins would eventually like to get Jorge Julio back into this role. His first outing the other day was very good, but I think it's too soon for the Marlins to trust Julio with the role. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said, "He's the guy we want. The guy's got experience to do it but we've got to build confidence in him." The player who would be the best bet to get the most saves right now is Taylor Tankersley, although his numbers haven't been very inspiring thus far (5.40 K/9 | 3.60 BB/9 | 34.5% GB).
However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.
However, Gonzalez also said that his team will stick mostly to a closer-by-committee approach. When this is the case, guys who will be in the mix should only probably be owned in deeper leagues. Taylor Tankersley, Matt Lindstrom, and Lee Gardner - as well as possibly Kevin Gregg - should see some time in the 9th inning until either Owens comes back or the job is handed back to Julio.
Risk and Pitchers
I've talked about Risk as a something to be exploited in Fantasy Baseball over the past couple of days, but I never talked about how it relates to pitching. This is something I will go over now.
The strategy with hitters is to take one who is an injury risk and play him whenever he is healthy. You also take a supplemental player who will play whenever the primary player gets hurt or doesn't play.
I don't think this strategy can be applied to pitchers, and here is why. When you take a position player who is an injury risk and he ends up getting hurt, you play the supplemental player every day the primary player is not in the lineup. Normally, this supplemental player is not worthy of starting every day for your team, but is useful - as his name suggests - as a supplemental player who is used occasionally. Doing this properly maximizes the value of both of the players.
With pitchers, there is a very small amount of pitchers that should only be used sometimes. Normally, a pitcher should be used either every single game or not at all. As a result, supplemental pitchers shouldn't really exist. If a pitcher is good enough to be on your roster, he should be good enough to use. Otherwise, you're really just wasting a roster spot and you will have a hard time getting to your league's maximum innings pitched mark.
That's why on a lot of my teams I took a couple of underrated aces (Peavy, Felix, Schilling, Kazmir, Hamels, Myers etc.) and loaded up the back end of my rotation with more underrated guys like A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Dave Bush, Kelvim Escobar, Scott Olsen, Jamie Shields, and Oliver Perez. Olsen has turned out to be a bust, and I subsequently dropped him in the leagues I owned him. I had no idea his K rate would drop, his BB rate would rise, and his GB rate would drop. I didn't see any signs of this coming, and I doubt anyone else did either. As long as you can get most of your picks right, you can afford to miss out on a couple. Especially when you can pick up guys like Philip Hughes and Tim Lincecum off the Waiver Wire.
The point with Olsen is that if a pitcher is not worth using, he is wasting a valuable roster spot and isn't worth owning. As such, you can't really have a supplemental pitcher. The best strategy, I think, with pitchers is to grab one or two aces and load up on good values for the rest of the draft. All of these pitchers should be used every single game (with a few rare circumstances), and if one gets hurt you can either go without them, make a trade, or very carefully scan the Waiver Wire for a guy who might deserve a roster spot. But to hang onto one of these guys as a reserve in case one of your good pitchers gets hurt isn't a smart idea. It's a waste of resources.
The strategy with hitters is to take one who is an injury risk and play him whenever he is healthy. You also take a supplemental player who will play whenever the primary player gets hurt or doesn't play.
I don't think this strategy can be applied to pitchers, and here is why. When you take a position player who is an injury risk and he ends up getting hurt, you play the supplemental player every day the primary player is not in the lineup. Normally, this supplemental player is not worthy of starting every day for your team, but is useful - as his name suggests - as a supplemental player who is used occasionally. Doing this properly maximizes the value of both of the players.
With pitchers, there is a very small amount of pitchers that should only be used sometimes. Normally, a pitcher should be used either every single game or not at all. As a result, supplemental pitchers shouldn't really exist. If a pitcher is good enough to be on your roster, he should be good enough to use. Otherwise, you're really just wasting a roster spot and you will have a hard time getting to your league's maximum innings pitched mark.
That's why on a lot of my teams I took a couple of underrated aces (Peavy, Felix, Schilling, Kazmir, Hamels, Myers etc.) and loaded up the back end of my rotation with more underrated guys like A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Dave Bush, Kelvim Escobar, Scott Olsen, Jamie Shields, and Oliver Perez. Olsen has turned out to be a bust, and I subsequently dropped him in the leagues I owned him. I had no idea his K rate would drop, his BB rate would rise, and his GB rate would drop. I didn't see any signs of this coming, and I doubt anyone else did either. As long as you can get most of your picks right, you can afford to miss out on a couple. Especially when you can pick up guys like Philip Hughes and Tim Lincecum off the Waiver Wire.
The point with Olsen is that if a pitcher is not worth using, he is wasting a valuable roster spot and isn't worth owning. As such, you can't really have a supplemental pitcher. The best strategy, I think, with pitchers is to grab one or two aces and load up on good values for the rest of the draft. All of these pitchers should be used every single game (with a few rare circumstances), and if one gets hurt you can either go without them, make a trade, or very carefully scan the Waiver Wire for a guy who might deserve a roster spot. But to hang onto one of these guys as a reserve in case one of your good pitchers gets hurt isn't a smart idea. It's a waste of resources.
Checking In On Curt Schilling
Preseason, I ranked Curt Schilling as the #5 Starting Pitcher in Fantasy Baseball. Before his first start of the regular season, Schilling announced that he would be "pitching to contact." Not what Fantasy Owners, or the Red Sox for the matter, wanted to hear. Pitching to contact means that a pitcher won't try as hard to miss bats. Instead, he will try to throw strikes and let the batter put the ball in play. Since we know that pitchers have no control over what happens to a ball once it is put into, this is not the type of strategy we'd like to see our #5 SP employing. By pitching to contact, we would expect the number of swinging strikes a pitcher gets to decrease as well as that pitcher's K/9. So how is Schilling doing so far?
From 2004 to 2006, Schilling's K/9 sat in the low 8s. So far in 2007, it is sitting at 7.14. If this is the extent of his new approach, it's not something to be overly concerned with. He won't be the #5 SP in Fantasy Baseball, but 7 K/9 is certainly respectable. Coupled with his still-amazing BB rate (1.74 BB/9 so far in 2007), and Schilling looks to be in good shape so far.
If we look at his individual starts, he has had quite a few where he is striking out a lot of batters. His 4/14 start he had 4 Ks in 8 IP and his 4/25 start he had 3 Ks in 7 IP, but his last two starts he has had 7 Ks in 6.1 and 7 IP.
The verdict? Don't worry about Schilling. Not yet anyway. If he can maintain his current K rate and BB rate, which it seems he will be able to do, he will be just fine. He won't be a Top 5 pitcher, but Top 10 or 15 should be easy for him.
From 2004 to 2006, Schilling's K/9 sat in the low 8s. So far in 2007, it is sitting at 7.14. If this is the extent of his new approach, it's not something to be overly concerned with. He won't be the #5 SP in Fantasy Baseball, but 7 K/9 is certainly respectable. Coupled with his still-amazing BB rate (1.74 BB/9 so far in 2007), and Schilling looks to be in good shape so far.
If we look at his individual starts, he has had quite a few where he is striking out a lot of batters. His 4/14 start he had 4 Ks in 8 IP and his 4/25 start he had 3 Ks in 7 IP, but his last two starts he has had 7 Ks in 6.1 and 7 IP.
The verdict? Don't worry about Schilling. Not yet anyway. If he can maintain his current K rate and BB rate, which it seems he will be able to do, he will be just fine. He won't be a Top 5 pitcher, but Top 10 or 15 should be easy for him.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Long Posts
I just realized that I have been writing some pretty long posts over the past few days. I'll try and be more brief in the future. Sorry guys. I hope you enjoy the content though.
More On Risk
Yesterday I talked about exploiting Risk for the betterment of your Fantasy Baseball Team. Today I'll go over some guys who might make good targets to acquire cheaply and apply this strategy with.
One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.
Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.
Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.
Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.
Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.
Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.
Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.
I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.
One thing I forgot to mention yesterday, but was built into my example, is that when choosing the primary player's backup/platoon, it might be a good idea to choose someone whose skill set complements the primary player's nicely.
Yesterday I paired Troy Glaus with Ryan Theriot. Glaus is a power hitter with a poor Batting Average and little in the way of Stolen Bases. Theriot is a guy with little power but who can make some serious contact and has wheels. In pairing these two, their combined Batting Average went up 10 points and roughly 10 steals were added. Getting this out of the SS position, which if manned by Glaus for the whole year wouldn't get near .260 or see more than a couple of steals, is a nice way to supplement the power tendencies of Glaus. In doing this you can help keep your team well-balanced.
Now, let's move onto some good targets. I won't mention a guy like Glaus because he has been putting up monster numbers since his return from the DL. The ship has sailed on a guy like Barry Bonds as well. As such, I won't mention anyone who would be overly difficult to acquire due to good play so far. The point to emphasize about risk is to acquire it as cheaply as possible; otherwise, there's no point of taking it on. You could simply pay for a similar player who doesn't have the risk factor.
Keep in mind that guys mentioned as platoon-partners are only suggestions. There are many other players who would make fine platoon-mates, and these are just a few who might not be too difficult to get. I tried to stick to guys who are also struggling a little.
Gary Sheffield | DET | 1B/OF - Sheffield is a guy who is old and has never played a full 162-game season. In addition, his numbers this year look pretty poor. He has a good BB and Contact Rate and still has got some power left in his bat though. Add in a decent lineup and Sheffield is a potential guy to buy low on. Make sure to emphasize the risk involved to his owner.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - His contact isn't as bad as it appeared last year or so far this year. HRs were a little inflated last year, but he's still got some good power. Hits in an excellent Mets lineup. No prospects to be pushing him out of a job, so the only risk with Delgado is his health and his age. Play on these with his owner, but don't be worried about them yourself.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Jermaine Dye | CHW | OF - Injury stigma attached to this guy, plus last year was considered a fluke by a lot of people. Low BA this year doesn't help. As long as his K rate drops to 20 he should be a decent contact hitter with a lot of power in a pretty good lineup. If he can play in 140+ games as he did the past two years you're golden. If not, you still will have some decent options to fall back on.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Brian Giles | SD | OF - Great contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. Not much power.
Andre Ethier | LAD | OF - Pretty good contact, decent patience, not much power, a little speed.
Craig Monroe | DET | OF - Not very good contact, good power, pretty good lineup.
Carlos Quentin | ARZ | OF - Pretty good contact, very good patience, great minor league numbers, great lineup.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - So-so contact, good minor league numbers, great lineup. Power/speed threat.
Nomar Garciaparra | LAD | 1B - Only being eligible at 1B hurts his value, and it might only be worth taking him on in deeper leagues, but Garciaparra is a very good contact hitter in a pretty good lineup. He shouldn't have hit as many HRs last year, and 10-15 HRs out of a 1B doesn't cut it in most leagues. But if you can afford it, Nomar has decent patience and could be a good guy to buy low. He needs to watch out James Loney though.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got pretty good contact, good power and patience, and a good lineup. Come to think of it, Jacobs might actually be better than Garciappara.
Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - Talked about in last week's Waiver Wire
Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Will be talked about in this week's Waiver Wire
Marcus Giles | SD | 2B - More for deeper leagues, Giles has good contact, good patience, and underrated base stealing ability. He probably won't hit more than 10-12 HRs (that figure might be a tad generous), but he's hitting at the top of a decent lineup. Seen as an injury risk, and playing on his move to Petco might be a decent idea. He's hitting .302, so I'm not sure if his price tag might be too high.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Ryan Theriot | CHC | 1B - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him as well, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Wow, didn't have to change that at all from Mr. Theriot.
Freddy Sanchez | PIT | 2B/3B/SS - Good contact hitter, pretty good speed, no power. Not a great lineup.
Felipe Lopez | WAS | 2B/SS - Terrible lineup, but a is a decent contact hitter with OK power for his position and a good deal of speed.
Morgan Ensberg | HOU | 3B - Ensberg has underrated contact and fantastic patience. He also posses some good power. His biggest problem over the years has been lack of confidence from his managers. If he can keep regular playing time and stay healthy, Ensberg should bounce back to have a nice 2007 campaign.
Potential Platoon-mates:
Edwin Encarnacion | CIN | 3B - Talked about him later today. Would only work well as a platoon if he finds regular playing time somewhere.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Hopefully you haven't forgotten about him. He could come off the DL within a couple of weeks, so this might be the last chance to buy low on him.
Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - Might be too late for him, but he's got great contact, good patience, and great speed, plus a good lineup. Speed could compliment Ensberg nicely. Could also fill in at other positions.
Well, there you have a few guys who you could buy low on based on presumptions of risk. I tried to find some Middle Infielders to write about, but I couldn't find many that fit my criteria. Ryan Freel's a guy that would work as a primary player in most leagues, but I think the time to buy low on him has passed. If you still can though, do it.
I'll talk more about how this concept should be applied to pitchers tomorrow.
B.J. Ryan Done for the Year
B.J. Ryan had Tommy John surgery today, officially ending his season. Jason Frasor has not been as effective as the Jays had hoped or I had expected. He currently has 8.10 K/9, but the 6.08 BB/9 are discouraging. The 42.1% GB percentage, while not terrible, is the lowest of his career. If he can find his control he would be a good bet to keep the role, but as long as he is walking that many batters there's a chance he will implode and lose the job.
If he does lose the job at some point it seems Jeremy Accardo would be next in line, so in deeper leagues stashing him might be a decent move.
Accardo's line: 7.98 K/9 | 3.07 BB/9 | 51.4% GB
That would make him a serviceable closer, although he has never had a GB rating that high before, so we could see it drop in the near future. His BB/9 rating is also worse than it was last year, so there is room for improvement there.
I wouldn't drop Frasor yet, as he could definitely improve, but if he doesn't and starts blowing saves the Jays might be forced to remove him from the role.
If he does lose the job at some point it seems Jeremy Accardo would be next in line, so in deeper leagues stashing him might be a decent move.
Accardo's line: 7.98 K/9 | 3.07 BB/9 | 51.4% GB
That would make him a serviceable closer, although he has never had a GB rating that high before, so we could see it drop in the near future. His BB/9 rating is also worse than it was last year, so there is room for improvement there.
I wouldn't drop Frasor yet, as he could definitely improve, but if he doesn't and starts blowing saves the Jays might be forced to remove him from the role.
Edwin Encarnacion to AAA
Again, I find myself dumbfounded at the ignorance of a move made by a Major League Baseball club. Edwin Encarnacion was demoted to Triple A this morning. Edwin is a guy I have been hyping as a Buy Low candidate, and there is no better time than now to get him. It seems somewhat likely the Reds will trade Edwin to a team that realizes how good he is. And considering what they took for Austin Kearns last year after he was demoted, I doubt they'll be hard pressed to find a suitable trading partner. Edwin is much better than Kearns, but the Reds are treating him terribly.
Edwin's K rate is actually down from last year, and his Contact Rate is at around 81%. His BB rate is down too, but 8.2% isn't bad. A 20.7% LD Percentage is pretty good too. I still believe the power is there, as I actually expected 25-30 out of him in the preseason. The one he has hit this year went a long way, so I still expect him to put up good power numbers once he gets back on his feet. If his owner drops him, it might be a good idea to stash him away.
Now that I think about it, this may actually be a blessing in disguise for mine and several other peoples' fantasy teams. Ryan Freel, who I own in a couple leagues, hasn't been getting regular playing time with Josh Hamilton around. With Edwin gone, he now will. Then if Edwin lands on an appreciative team who can wait out a run of bad luck, I'll have the two everyday players I thought I'd drafted at the beginning of the year.
Edwin's K rate is actually down from last year, and his Contact Rate is at around 81%. His BB rate is down too, but 8.2% isn't bad. A 20.7% LD Percentage is pretty good too. I still believe the power is there, as I actually expected 25-30 out of him in the preseason. The one he has hit this year went a long way, so I still expect him to put up good power numbers once he gets back on his feet. If his owner drops him, it might be a good idea to stash him away.
Now that I think about it, this may actually be a blessing in disguise for mine and several other peoples' fantasy teams. Ryan Freel, who I own in a couple leagues, hasn't been getting regular playing time with Josh Hamilton around. With Edwin gone, he now will. Then if Edwin lands on an appreciative team who can wait out a run of bad luck, I'll have the two everyday players I thought I'd drafted at the beginning of the year.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Capitalizing on 'Risky' Players
A few days ago I pointed you to an article over at the Hardball Times that dealt with risk as a market inefficiency. The article mostly dealt with this concept for Major League Baseball, but the principle is very relevant to Fantasy Baseball as well.
A player who is considered an 'injury risk' is naturally less valuable than a player who might put up the same numbers but with more consistent playing time. Suppose two players hit .300 with 10 ABs per HR. One is an iron man who plays 162 games per year and the other is lucky to play in 100. Obviously the 162-game guy is going to be more valuable in trades and will be taken earlier on draft day. However, it might actually be a better move to draft the 100 game guy several rounds later.
For example, Barry Bonds is a fantastic player, but for a plethora of reasons could have been had in Round 15 in many 12-team expert league drafts. He is considered a risky player. He is 42 years old. He hasn't played more than 130 games in three years. He has had some trouble with injuries. He doesn't play in day games after night games. He has been the center of this whole steroid scandal. Instinctively, most people didn't want to draft Bonds too early. Good news for us opportunists. You easily could have drafted Barry Bonds in Round 14 and Moises Alou in Round 23 and now have your LF spot filled with a fantastic player and will get near 162 games out of the position. Play Bonds whenever he is in the Giants lineup and play Alou on the day games after night games and if Bonds is to get hurt this year.
By targeting good players who are undervalued due to injury concerns (or certain other reasons) and targeting a player in a later round as insurance/as a platoon-mate who is also undervalued, you can find yourself a very capable full-time player for a much lower price.
Another good example of this concept is Troy Glaus, especially in leagues where he is SS eligible. Glaus could have been had in Round 8 in many expert leagues. Ryan Theriot went undrafted in most leagues. While Glaus hasn't had a major injury in two years, there is still a stigma attached to him. For practical purposes, lets say that we only expect 130 games out of him this year. Lets say the remaining 32 will be filled by Theriot when Glaus is on the DL. Below is a rough estimate of their stat lines.
Now let's look at a possible stat line for Miguel Tejada, who was drafted in Round 3 in a lot of expert drafts.
The only category Tejada is significantly better in is Batting Average. Of course these are rough numbers and this exact scenario might not have worked because Theriot wasn't expected to play full-time during the preseason, but I think you understand that this concept has its place in Fantasy Baseball Strategy.
A reader mentioned the other day that this theory has its limitations, which it absolutely does. That reader said that it is not always necessary to take on risk. In less competitive leagues, risk might not be needed in order to win. But in competitive leagues, taking on a risk like Troy Glaus or Barry Bonds might be a sound strategy.
There are also some risky players that should not be taken. An example of the type of player that wouldn't work well with this platoon approach is Ryan Freel. Freel is a player that I like a lot and drafted for several of my teams because I expected him to start every day. That thought went out the window with the emergence of Josh Hamilton.
Here is why it might be difficult to begin to use the approach mentioned above with Freel. His days off seem to come at random intervals. Unless you are willing to check the lineup cards as they become available, minutes before games are set to begin - which you definitely could do if you are dedicated to winning your league - it would be difficult to decide which games to bench Freel and which to play his platoon-mate. This actually becomes impossible if the player in question is on a West coast team whose games don't start until after his platoon-mate's games have ended.
Anyway, I think I've talked enough about this for now. Tomorrow I'll talk a little more and go over a few guys who might be good targets for the remainder of the year to employ this strategy with.
A player who is considered an 'injury risk' is naturally less valuable than a player who might put up the same numbers but with more consistent playing time. Suppose two players hit .300 with 10 ABs per HR. One is an iron man who plays 162 games per year and the other is lucky to play in 100. Obviously the 162-game guy is going to be more valuable in trades and will be taken earlier on draft day. However, it might actually be a better move to draft the 100 game guy several rounds later.
For example, Barry Bonds is a fantastic player, but for a plethora of reasons could have been had in Round 15 in many 12-team expert league drafts. He is considered a risky player. He is 42 years old. He hasn't played more than 130 games in three years. He has had some trouble with injuries. He doesn't play in day games after night games. He has been the center of this whole steroid scandal. Instinctively, most people didn't want to draft Bonds too early. Good news for us opportunists. You easily could have drafted Barry Bonds in Round 14 and Moises Alou in Round 23 and now have your LF spot filled with a fantastic player and will get near 162 games out of the position. Play Bonds whenever he is in the Giants lineup and play Alou on the day games after night games and if Bonds is to get hurt this year.
By targeting good players who are undervalued due to injury concerns (or certain other reasons) and targeting a player in a later round as insurance/as a platoon-mate who is also undervalued, you can find yourself a very capable full-time player for a much lower price.
Another good example of this concept is Troy Glaus, especially in leagues where he is SS eligible. Glaus could have been had in Round 8 in many expert leagues. Ryan Theriot went undrafted in most leagues. While Glaus hasn't had a major injury in two years, there is still a stigma attached to him. For practical purposes, lets say that we only expect 130 games out of him this year. Lets say the remaining 32 will be filled by Theriot when Glaus is on the DL. Below is a rough estimate of their stat lines.
| G | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | AVG | |
| Glaus | 130 | 450 | 113 | 30 | 87 | 85 | 1 | 0.251 |
| Theriot | 32 | 110 | 33 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 9 | 0.300 |
| Combined | 162 | 560 | 146 | 32 | 99 | 110 | 10 | 0.261 |
Now let's look at a possible stat line for Miguel Tejada, who was drafted in Round 3 in a lot of expert drafts.
| G | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | AVG | |
| Tejada | 162 | 650 | 200 | 26 | 100 | 100 | 5 | 0.308 |
The only category Tejada is significantly better in is Batting Average. Of course these are rough numbers and this exact scenario might not have worked because Theriot wasn't expected to play full-time during the preseason, but I think you understand that this concept has its place in Fantasy Baseball Strategy.
A reader mentioned the other day that this theory has its limitations, which it absolutely does. That reader said that it is not always necessary to take on risk. In less competitive leagues, risk might not be needed in order to win. But in competitive leagues, taking on a risk like Troy Glaus or Barry Bonds might be a sound strategy.
There are also some risky players that should not be taken. An example of the type of player that wouldn't work well with this platoon approach is Ryan Freel. Freel is a player that I like a lot and drafted for several of my teams because I expected him to start every day. That thought went out the window with the emergence of Josh Hamilton.
Here is why it might be difficult to begin to use the approach mentioned above with Freel. His days off seem to come at random intervals. Unless you are willing to check the lineup cards as they become available, minutes before games are set to begin - which you definitely could do if you are dedicated to winning your league - it would be difficult to decide which games to bench Freel and which to play his platoon-mate. This actually becomes impossible if the player in question is on a West coast team whose games don't start until after his platoon-mate's games have ended.
Anyway, I think I've talked enough about this for now. Tomorrow I'll talk a little more and go over a few guys who might be good targets for the remainder of the year to employ this strategy with.
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