There's a lot surrounding Jason Giambi right now, which makes it a good time to buy low on him. To start, he's only batting .268 after hitting .253 last year. He hasn't hit over .300 since his first year with the Yankees in 2002. In addition, he has only hit 5 HRs through nearly two months of the season.
Next, he's having trouble with a bone spur in his left heel. This is the problem I am most concerned with. This problem has kept him out of Yankee Interleague games being played in NL parks so far. Not healthy enough to play first base, Giambi has been relegated to sitting on the bench.
To top it all off, Giambi all but admitted on Friday to using steroids. His comments have allowed speculation to run rampant among reporters and speculators. Some have said that Giambi could be suspended. As far as I know, however, players can only be suspended if they have used steroids since 2005. Others have said that the Yankees might try and terminate Giambi's large contract. Again, this seems doubtful at best. George Steinbrenner cares about one thing: winning. He doesn't care how much money it costs or how ethically he does it (i.e. he doesn't care if Giambi used steroids a couple years ago); he just wants to win. Giambi can help him do that. Giambi is one of the best players in baseball, and to think Steinbrenner will give him up so he can save a few bucks just doesn't seem to be a likely scenario.
So where does all this leave Giambi's fantasy value? In the gutter. Honestly, it's already probably slipped through the gutter cracks and is being swept away down a sewage pipeline of grime. That makes this the best time to take advantage.
Preseason, I expected Giambi to hit around 45 HRs judging by his HitTracker numbers. While his power hasn't been very impressive so far, and he has yet to hit a ball with a True Distance over 400 feet, I have to think that the power is still in there and will come out soon. His 78% Contact rate is the best it's been since it was 80% in his 2002 season (the last season he hit over .300). His BB rate is down from its gargantuan 20% in 2005 and 2006, but 14% still ranks among the best in baseball. His career BB rate is 16.2%, so an increase is likely. His LD Percentage is a respectable 18.8%. All in all, I think his selectivity will allow him to hit .280. Plus, he hits for the Yankees, so a lot of RBIs and Runs should be a given.
My biggest concern with Giambi is his foot. I wish I knew a little more about how certain injuries affect players, but if you can get Giambi for cheap I think this is a risk that is well worth taking. If you get Giambi, just make sure you have a capable backup in case he can't play in the next Yankee NL Interleague series. A guy like Dan Johnson would be more than adequate. Conor Jackson would work too.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Sunday, May 20, 2007
A Look at Tim Lincecum
Alright, so Tim Lincecum has pitched in 3 games so far, and today the Giants confirmed that he will remain in the starting rotation once Russ Ortiz returns from the DL. Ortiz will move to the bullpen and should become obsolete for Fantasy Baseball purposes. So what should we expect from Lincecum for the rest of the year?
His season line looks like this, through 3 starts:
10.31 K/9
3.44 BB/9
45.7% GB rate
Here is the breakdown of his three starts:
4.1 IP 5 K 5 BB 33% GB
7.0 IP 6 K 1 BB 57% GB
7.0 IP 10 K 1 BB 38% GB
His K/BB has improved every start, and he seems to have shown that he can wrack up the strikeouts even at this level. His GB has fluctuated, but I think it could settle in at around 48%. That, combined with his high Ks alone makes him an above average pitcher. The main concern with Lincecum coming up was his control. If he came up and started walking a lot of batters, he wouldn't be worth a roster spot in a lot of leagues. However, he has walked just two batters in his last 14 IPs, so this may not be an issue.
We are looking at a small sample size here, but for now I think Lincecum looks like a keeper. If he can keep his BB rate steady, he could end up being a Top 12-15 Starting Pitcher. In the leagues I own him, I'm hanging tight.
His season line looks like this, through 3 starts:
10.31 K/9
3.44 BB/9
45.7% GB rate
Here is the breakdown of his three starts:
4.1 IP 5 K 5 BB 33% GB
7.0 IP 6 K 1 BB 57% GB
7.0 IP 10 K 1 BB 38% GB
His K/BB has improved every start, and he seems to have shown that he can wrack up the strikeouts even at this level. His GB has fluctuated, but I think it could settle in at around 48%. That, combined with his high Ks alone makes him an above average pitcher. The main concern with Lincecum coming up was his control. If he came up and started walking a lot of batters, he wouldn't be worth a roster spot in a lot of leagues. However, he has walked just two batters in his last 14 IPs, so this may not be an issue.
We are looking at a small sample size here, but for now I think Lincecum looks like a keeper. If he can keep his BB rate steady, he could end up being a Top 12-15 Starting Pitcher. In the leagues I own him, I'm hanging tight.
Waiver Wire - National League
OK. Here's the National League Waiver Wire for this week.
National League
Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.
Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.
Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn't been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.
Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven't been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg's numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I've had a few questions on him this week, so I'll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.
Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn't have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he's had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves's go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I'll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.
Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn't a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it's tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.
Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He's got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren't very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He's in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.
National League
Ryan Doumit | PIT | C/1B/OF - Might not be in the bigs for a whole lot longer, but while he is he has value. He has pretty good power, and could hit about 8 with 200 ABs. He has a pretty good 82% Contact rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 20.3% LD rate, so a .280 average seems likely. He should grab a good amount of RBIs hitting 5th and grab a few Runs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12 and 14-team leagues while he is starting. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues while he is starting.
Endy Chavez | NYM | OF - With Alou on the DL, Chavez will get some regular playing time. Carlos Gomez will start some games, but Chavez has a great Contact Rate and good BB and LD rates. Plus, he has good speed, so he could grab a few SBs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues until Alou gets back. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues until Alou gets back.
Kevin Gregg | FLA | RP - Tankersley hasn't been pitching very well, and Kevin Gregg seems to be the favorite for saves until Owens gets back, which could be in a few days. I like Gregg a lot preseason, and had drafted him late in a couple of leagues with early drafts. Should be a good closer for the next few days.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues until Henry Owens returns.
Henry Owens | FLA | RP - Could be back on the 24th, and while his peripherals in the majors haven't been very good, he will have a job closing, at least for a while, and is worth owning. I like Kevin Gregg's numbers better, and if Owens falters Gregg would make a better closer this year.
Recommendation: Should owned in all leagues.
Jeremy Hermida | FLA | OF - Still owned in just 2.5% of ESPN leagues, and I've had a few questions on him this week, so I'll put him here again. Should have hit a few more HRs last year and could hit 15 with 400 ABs. Good patience and LD rate, but his 78% Contact Rate will need to improve for Hermida to hit more than .280-.285. Marlins lineup should help with RBIs and Runs, and Hermida can grab a handful of steals.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.
Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Didn't have overly impressive minor league numbers in 2006, but this year he's had LD rates around 21% at both levels, in addition to 80% Contact Rates. He had an 11% BB rate in the minors and has a 7.9% BB rate in the majors. Has a little bit of power and can steal some bases. Might have some use in deeper leagues while Dave Roberts is out. Has been hitting at the top of the lineup quite often.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP - With Mike Gonzalez hurt, Soriano becomes the Braves's go-to-guy before the 9th inning, and it wouldn't surprise me if Wickman is out of a job before the year is over. Soriano would probably step in if that happened, with Gonzalez picking up a few saves here or there. Should be owned in leagues where relievers have value.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - I'll talk about him more in depth later today, but he still is only owned in about 2/3 of ESPN leagues
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now.
Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo is getting tough to ignore for the Brewers with a 12.46 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in AAA. There isn't a pressing need for a SP in Milwaukee, but it's tough to keep a guy like Gallardo down there. Could see a callup soon after June 1st.
Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and stashed in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be stashed in all NL-only leagues.
Sergio Mitre | FLA | SP - Only a 5.45 K/9, but a 2.18 BB/9 and 57.4% GB rate are very good. BABIP and HR/9 look good, and Mitre should be a pretty solid pitcher as long as he can keep the walks down, which he hasn't been able to do in the past. Lack of Ks hurt his value in shallower leagues.
Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned 14-team leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.
Chris Young | ARZ | OF - Similarly valued to Hermida. Could hit 20 HRs and get 20 SBs. He's got a good (86%) Contact rate, but his 4.7% BB rate and 14.8% LD rate aren't very good. If it stays like that a .270 BA is pretty likely. He's in a good lineup though, and if he can stay at the top of it he should get a bunch of Runs. Should also get a decent amount of RBIs, maybe 65-70.
Recommendation: Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Waiver Wire - American League
Today we'll go over the American League Waiver Wire, and tomorrow we'll do the National League.
American League
Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland 'pen. The A's say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he's available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven't affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you've forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We're going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I'm still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion's void in one league, and I'll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He's got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don't get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won't be as valuable, but there's a good chance that won't happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.
Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He's a tough one to predict, but he'll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It'll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.
Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS's Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I'm not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it's at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won't hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn't have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.
Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he'll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he's a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.
American League
Justin Duchscherer | OAK | RP - Hurting a little himself, but with Huston Street on the DL, Duke becomes the go-to-guy in the Oakland 'pen. The A's say he should be ready to pitch today. His BB/9 is up this season, but I expect it to come down shortly. Solid K rate, good GB rate. If you need saves this is the probably the best guy to pick up this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Octavio Dotel | KC | RP - Could be back on Tuesday, so if he's available in your league, pick him up. Has pretty good peripherals, assuming his injuries haven't affected him much. A closer with skills needs to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B - Maybe you've forgotten about this guy, but he had dynamite numbers to start the year. We're going based on a small sample size, but he could be the answer to 3B woes for a lot of teams. I'm still struggling to fill Edwin Encarnacion's void in one league, and I'll probably be picking up Iwamura soon. He's got 20/20 potential, seems to have good discipline, and makes good contact. On Wednesday, Joe Maddon said Iwamura was 2-3 weeks from returning. Might be too soon to pick him up, but make sure you don't get beat.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team leagues until he proves otherwise. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues until he proves otherwise.
Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Still owned in just 46% of ESPN leagues, Blanton should probably be owned in all of them, at least for now. Solid K/9, great BB/9, and good GB%. If his BB rate regresses he won't be as valuable, but there's a good chance that won't happen.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Andrew Miller | DET | SP - Talked about him a couple of days ago. Was less than dominant at Single A.
Recommendation: Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in only the deepest AL-only leagues.
Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Interesting guy. He's a tough one to predict, but he'll be getting the Twins start today and could stick in the rotation for a little while. Last year he had a 6.70 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 in 83.1 IP. This year in AAA, he had an 8.65 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 42.2 IP. These numbers indicate he has good control and can strike out a decent amount of Major League batters. He will need to do both to compensate for his terrible 34% FB rate. Baker will give up some HRs, but in deeper leagues he might be worth using for a little while.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.
Devern Hansack | BOS | SP - Has shown decent numbers in the minors this year and last with K rates above 8.00 and BB rates below 2.5. GB rate sits around a decent 42%. Tough to tell how this will translate to the majors. Might be worth a use in some AL-only leagues. It'll be easier to make a judgement if he can get a few starts. Will probably be sent back down when Beckett gets back.
Recommendation: Too risky to be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in very deep AL-only leagues for a couple of starts.
Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 1B/3B/OF - Not sure why, but Youkilis is only owned in 66% of ESPN leagues and comes in at #17 on CBS's Most Added Players list. Youkilis should be owned in all leagues. His Contact rate is much better than last year, and while it might regress he has good selectivity/patience and is a good LD hitter. He could also be good for 20 HRs. Plus, he hits for the Red Sox.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Reggie Willits | ANA | OF - I meant to write about him last week; I'm not sure why I skipped over him. He is a LD machine, both in the majors and minors. He nearly had a 90% Contact rate in the minors last year, and it's at 85% in the majors this year. He takes a ton of walks and has good speed. Won't hit .371 forever, but a BA well above .300 is very likely. He has 9 SBs so far. He doesn't have much power, but this is a guy who can help a lot in 3 categories while he has a starting spot. It would be smart for the Angels to keep him starting, but it may not happen once Garrett Anderson returns.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues until he loses his starting spot.
Jesse Litsch | TOR | SP - Has shown good control and an amazing ability to induce GBs in the minors, but his first Major League start was less than impressive. His K/9 might not get above 5.00, and he'll have to keep the walks down to be effective. Like Hansack, he's a risky pickup, but the GBs make him a little bit safer if his other numbers blow up in his face. Might not get many more starts, but the possibility is there.
Recommendation: Should be watched in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues, at least for now.
Garrett Atkins Analysis
Sorry it took so long to write this up, but here it is. Garrett Atkins is one of my favorite 3B trade targets right now. First let's go over the power. In the preseason it would have been easy to predict a small power increase from Atkins, and 35 HRs were a distinct possibility. So far, he has only hit 2 HRs. They have had True Distances of 389 and 396, according to HitTracker. Not great, but decent. While it is possible he won't hit a lot of HRs, I think it is likely that he will bust out sometime soon and become the player I thought he would be. His Flyball Percentage is up to 48% (from 41% in 2006), which adds a little further support to the prediction that he will soon begin to be a serious power threat.
So what about the .240 Batting Average? I see this increasing as well. His Contact Rate is at 83.5%, which is down from his 87.3% of last year, but still respectable. I think it is fairly likely once Atkins shakes this funk his Contact Rate will improve a bit. His BB rate is only down a little from last year, and 11% is still quite good. With selectivity like that you'd expect Atkins to be converting his balls in play into hits at a better rate than his .275 BABIP indicates. His BABIP last year was .340 with a 11.6% BB rate. LD Percentage also has an effect on this, and his LD rate is also only down a little from 2006. It is at 20.8% now, down from 22% in 2006.
Overall, it seems like Atkins's contact hitting numbers are down across the board, but only by a little bit. Even if they remain as they are, they are still better than a .240 BA. I expect them to improve a little though, and his BA should rise significantly. Preseason I though a BA above .300 was very likely, and I still feel Atkins can achieve this mark.
The Colorado lineup is decent, so Atkins should be able to score a good number of RBIs and Runs. Tulowitski's BA should improve and he walks a lot. Taveras is a good contact hitter and he is surprisingly walking a lot too. Holliday has established himself as a good hitter. Helton's days as a serious power threat are gone, but he is a fantastic contact hitter who walks a ton. Plenty of RBI opportunities for Atkins once he shapes up.
If he could squeeze himself into the 3rd or 4th spot he'd be in a perfect spot for a lot of RBIs and Runs with Tulowitski and Taveras ahead and Holliday and Helton behind. If he stays batting 5th, the guys behind him are only OK, but his high BB rate should still be able to keep his Run total up.
So there you have an analysis of Garrett Atkins. Overall, I'd say if you can get him cheap, definitely do it. I still think he will be considered one of the Top 3 or 4 Fantasy Baseball 3B by year's end. He has all the tools to do it, now he just has to.
So what about the .240 Batting Average? I see this increasing as well. His Contact Rate is at 83.5%, which is down from his 87.3% of last year, but still respectable. I think it is fairly likely once Atkins shakes this funk his Contact Rate will improve a bit. His BB rate is only down a little from last year, and 11% is still quite good. With selectivity like that you'd expect Atkins to be converting his balls in play into hits at a better rate than his .275 BABIP indicates. His BABIP last year was .340 with a 11.6% BB rate. LD Percentage also has an effect on this, and his LD rate is also only down a little from 2006. It is at 20.8% now, down from 22% in 2006.
Overall, it seems like Atkins's contact hitting numbers are down across the board, but only by a little bit. Even if they remain as they are, they are still better than a .240 BA. I expect them to improve a little though, and his BA should rise significantly. Preseason I though a BA above .300 was very likely, and I still feel Atkins can achieve this mark.
The Colorado lineup is decent, so Atkins should be able to score a good number of RBIs and Runs. Tulowitski's BA should improve and he walks a lot. Taveras is a good contact hitter and he is surprisingly walking a lot too. Holliday has established himself as a good hitter. Helton's days as a serious power threat are gone, but he is a fantastic contact hitter who walks a ton. Plenty of RBI opportunities for Atkins once he shapes up.
If he could squeeze himself into the 3rd or 4th spot he'd be in a perfect spot for a lot of RBIs and Runs with Tulowitski and Taveras ahead and Holliday and Helton behind. If he stays batting 5th, the guys behind him are only OK, but his high BB rate should still be able to keep his Run total up.
So there you have an analysis of Garrett Atkins. Overall, I'd say if you can get him cheap, definitely do it. I still think he will be considered one of the Top 3 or 4 Fantasy Baseball 3B by year's end. He has all the tools to do it, now he just has to.
Friday, May 18, 2007
Buying and Selling
Another Buy Low / Sell High day. This will usually come on Wednesday's, but I didn't get a chance to write it up this Wednesday.
Buy Low
Garrett Atkins - I'll run a full post on Atkins later today, but he is probably my favorite Buy Low 3B target right now.
Kenny Lofton - Fantastic Contact rate, good Walk rate, and a lot of speed. His LD rate is at 11%, which is a little worrisome, but I see Lofton as a cheaper Juan Pierre. He should hit .300 if the LD rate picks up, will steal a lot of bases (35 is a definite possibility... maybe more), won't hit many HRs (less than 5), will score a lot of Runs atop the Rangers lineup, and get a modest number of RBIs. If you need SBs or a quality CF in somewhat deep leagues, Lofton makes a good target.
Ian Kinsler - If his owner is panicking with the slow May, jump on Kinsler. Will be a starting quality 2B the rest of the way. 85% Contact and 10% BB rates are good, and his 16% LD rate should increase. A .194 BABIP will surely increase, and a BA around .290 seems likely. He's got a little bit of speed, and while it looks like he hit more than his share of HRs in April, he still has some power. He could hit another 15-20 the rest of the way.
Frank Thomas - Power last year looked legit using Hit Tracker's ND/PL/JE system, and he has been crushing balls this year. Hasn't hit any Just Enoughs yet, so expect his power to really pick up soon. Owners might be getting impatient, and his .236 BA doesn't help things. His BB rate is still fantastic and his Contact rate - like last year - is above 80%. LD percentage is down a little, but I'd still bank on Thomas putting it back together. Hits in a good lineup. Now with him sitting during Interleague Play might be the best time to pounce on angry owners.
Jeremy Bonderman - 5.71 K/BB rate is fantastic and his 43% GB rate is pretty good. Much better than his 4.20 ERA indicates. His recent injury might be just the push his owner needs to trade him. While I am no medical expert, a cut on his pitching hand doesn't sound like it will have any long-term effects.
Dave Bush - Mentioned before on here, but his ERA is still over 5.00. A K rate just under 7.00 and a K/BB of 4.75 deserves some credit. Buy on Bush before he starts putting up the surface numbers. He should be a Top 25 SP in 2007.
Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - I feel obligated to continue putting Zambrano on here. His BB/9 is still 4.47 and this just won't do. Keep away.
Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train won't improve too much with a K/BB under two. His K rate has always been mediocre, and his BB rate is at the worst point of his career. It's likely it'll improve a little, but Dontrelle isn't the pitcher a lot of people think he is.
Chien-Ming Wang - I mentioned him in this spot when he came off the DL, and I'll put him here again. Strikes out too few players to be a very good pitcher, and the lack of Ks will kill you in most Fantasy Baseball formats. BB rate has improved, and his K/BB is over 2.00, but the 3.48 K/9 is just too much to overcome
Josh Barfield - The 7th 2B taken, on average, in preseason expert drafts, Barfield has seriously underproduced these expectations. He didn't hit a single No Doubt HR last year, according to Hit Tracker, so his lack of power so far is no surprise. His BA might increase a little, but all of his vitals are down from last year. Contact rate is at 75%, BB rate is at 3.7%, and his LD rate is at 14.3%. These should improve a little, but don't expect a repeat of 2006... at least not in 2007.
Sell High
Matt Cain - Surface numbers are starting to catch up to his peripherals, but his 0.35 HR/9 and .233 BABIP are both much lower than they should be. Sell while you can.
Tim Hudson - Hey, Tim Hudson is back to his old A's self! You might here this from one of your leaguemates, but you won't from me. His 1.77 BB/9 is the lowest of his career, and it is unlikely to last. He's never had a great K rate, and once the walks increase he should fall back into mediocrity. His 0.27 HR/9 and .243 are too low as well and will surely increase. Get rid of Hudson.
Brad Penny - The 57% GB rate is much higher than his career average and will probably drop a good amount. His K/BB is just 1.83, and while this may increase I don't see it getting to a level that can sustain his peripherals. He hasn't allowed a HR yet (partly as a result of the high GB rate). Not a good bet to keep up these kinds of numbers.
B.J. Upton - While I like the BB rate, his Contact Rate is so low it makes it nearly impossible to keep a BA above .260-ish. Power should slow down a little bit too, but he could hit 20-25 HRs. Pretty good lineup will allow him to get some RBIs and Runs, but his value right now exceeds his skill level. Sell on him.
Don't Sell High
Ian Snell - Has a chance to regress, but it is equally as likely Snell is the real deal. His 2.89 BB/9 rate is lower than previous years, but third year starting pitchers are known for improved stats. He has a solid K rate (7.30) and if he can keep his BB rate up he should be a useful pitcher. His 45% GB rate is good, although he hasn't allowed as many HRs as he should. Might be overacheiving a bit, but Snell is a keeper unless you can rip someone off.
Dan Haren - He's getting lucky, but he is still a very good pitcher. I had him ranked Top 15 in the preseason and I stand by this assessment. A 3.43 K/BB is very good, and his 41% GB rate should even see an increase. Like with Snell, keep Haren unless you can rip someone off.
Torii Hunter - Power seems legitimate, even if his BA is not. 25-30 HRs is a good possibility. Matains a Contact rate above 80%, but his BB rate is down to 3%. That should increase, though, back to his usual 7-8%. LD rate is in line with his career average, which is below average. SBs could have been predicted preseason if you knew that he got over a leg injury that had plagued him for a couple of years late last season and stole 6 bases in September (or at least that's what my friend who's a Twins fan told me). I expect him to keep stealing bases.
Orlando Hudson - He has a good Contact rate, a good Walk rate, and a little bit of speed. Should keep up his BA. He's hitting in the middle of a great lineup, and has a little bit of power (though he is overachieving in that department so far in 2007). Should be good for maybe another 8 HRs from here on out. Will get his fair share of RBIs and Runs if he can keep his lineup spot.
Prince Fielder - This man has some serious power. Don't expect him to slow down much in that area. His Contact Percentage isn't great and his LD percentage isn't either, but his BB rate is pretty good and he could wind up posting a pretty solid average (which will be based a decent amount on his HRs).
Buy Low
Garrett Atkins - I'll run a full post on Atkins later today, but he is probably my favorite Buy Low 3B target right now.
Kenny Lofton - Fantastic Contact rate, good Walk rate, and a lot of speed. His LD rate is at 11%, which is a little worrisome, but I see Lofton as a cheaper Juan Pierre. He should hit .300 if the LD rate picks up, will steal a lot of bases (35 is a definite possibility... maybe more), won't hit many HRs (less than 5), will score a lot of Runs atop the Rangers lineup, and get a modest number of RBIs. If you need SBs or a quality CF in somewhat deep leagues, Lofton makes a good target.
Ian Kinsler - If his owner is panicking with the slow May, jump on Kinsler. Will be a starting quality 2B the rest of the way. 85% Contact and 10% BB rates are good, and his 16% LD rate should increase. A .194 BABIP will surely increase, and a BA around .290 seems likely. He's got a little bit of speed, and while it looks like he hit more than his share of HRs in April, he still has some power. He could hit another 15-20 the rest of the way.
Frank Thomas - Power last year looked legit using Hit Tracker's ND/PL/JE system, and he has been crushing balls this year. Hasn't hit any Just Enoughs yet, so expect his power to really pick up soon. Owners might be getting impatient, and his .236 BA doesn't help things. His BB rate is still fantastic and his Contact rate - like last year - is above 80%. LD percentage is down a little, but I'd still bank on Thomas putting it back together. Hits in a good lineup. Now with him sitting during Interleague Play might be the best time to pounce on angry owners.
Jeremy Bonderman - 5.71 K/BB rate is fantastic and his 43% GB rate is pretty good. Much better than his 4.20 ERA indicates. His recent injury might be just the push his owner needs to trade him. While I am no medical expert, a cut on his pitching hand doesn't sound like it will have any long-term effects.
Dave Bush - Mentioned before on here, but his ERA is still over 5.00. A K rate just under 7.00 and a K/BB of 4.75 deserves some credit. Buy on Bush before he starts putting up the surface numbers. He should be a Top 25 SP in 2007.
Don't Buy Low
Carlos Zambrano - I feel obligated to continue putting Zambrano on here. His BB/9 is still 4.47 and this just won't do. Keep away.
Dontrelle Willis - The D-Train won't improve too much with a K/BB under two. His K rate has always been mediocre, and his BB rate is at the worst point of his career. It's likely it'll improve a little, but Dontrelle isn't the pitcher a lot of people think he is.
Chien-Ming Wang - I mentioned him in this spot when he came off the DL, and I'll put him here again. Strikes out too few players to be a very good pitcher, and the lack of Ks will kill you in most Fantasy Baseball formats. BB rate has improved, and his K/BB is over 2.00, but the 3.48 K/9 is just too much to overcome
Josh Barfield - The 7th 2B taken, on average, in preseason expert drafts, Barfield has seriously underproduced these expectations. He didn't hit a single No Doubt HR last year, according to Hit Tracker, so his lack of power so far is no surprise. His BA might increase a little, but all of his vitals are down from last year. Contact rate is at 75%, BB rate is at 3.7%, and his LD rate is at 14.3%. These should improve a little, but don't expect a repeat of 2006... at least not in 2007.
Sell High
Matt Cain - Surface numbers are starting to catch up to his peripherals, but his 0.35 HR/9 and .233 BABIP are both much lower than they should be. Sell while you can.
Tim Hudson - Hey, Tim Hudson is back to his old A's self! You might here this from one of your leaguemates, but you won't from me. His 1.77 BB/9 is the lowest of his career, and it is unlikely to last. He's never had a great K rate, and once the walks increase he should fall back into mediocrity. His 0.27 HR/9 and .243 are too low as well and will surely increase. Get rid of Hudson.
Brad Penny - The 57% GB rate is much higher than his career average and will probably drop a good amount. His K/BB is just 1.83, and while this may increase I don't see it getting to a level that can sustain his peripherals. He hasn't allowed a HR yet (partly as a result of the high GB rate). Not a good bet to keep up these kinds of numbers.
B.J. Upton - While I like the BB rate, his Contact Rate is so low it makes it nearly impossible to keep a BA above .260-ish. Power should slow down a little bit too, but he could hit 20-25 HRs. Pretty good lineup will allow him to get some RBIs and Runs, but his value right now exceeds his skill level. Sell on him.
Don't Sell High
Ian Snell - Has a chance to regress, but it is equally as likely Snell is the real deal. His 2.89 BB/9 rate is lower than previous years, but third year starting pitchers are known for improved stats. He has a solid K rate (7.30) and if he can keep his BB rate up he should be a useful pitcher. His 45% GB rate is good, although he hasn't allowed as many HRs as he should. Might be overacheiving a bit, but Snell is a keeper unless you can rip someone off.
Dan Haren - He's getting lucky, but he is still a very good pitcher. I had him ranked Top 15 in the preseason and I stand by this assessment. A 3.43 K/BB is very good, and his 41% GB rate should even see an increase. Like with Snell, keep Haren unless you can rip someone off.
Torii Hunter - Power seems legitimate, even if his BA is not. 25-30 HRs is a good possibility. Matains a Contact rate above 80%, but his BB rate is down to 3%. That should increase, though, back to his usual 7-8%. LD rate is in line with his career average, which is below average. SBs could have been predicted preseason if you knew that he got over a leg injury that had plagued him for a couple of years late last season and stole 6 bases in September (or at least that's what my friend who's a Twins fan told me). I expect him to keep stealing bases.
Orlando Hudson - He has a good Contact rate, a good Walk rate, and a little bit of speed. Should keep up his BA. He's hitting in the middle of a great lineup, and has a little bit of power (though he is overachieving in that department so far in 2007). Should be good for maybe another 8 HRs from here on out. Will get his fair share of RBIs and Runs if he can keep his lineup spot.
Prince Fielder - This man has some serious power. Don't expect him to slow down much in that area. His Contact Percentage isn't great and his LD percentage isn't either, but his BB rate is pretty good and he could wind up posting a pretty solid average (which will be based a decent amount on his HRs).
More on Pitchers and BABIP
Alright. We seemed to have a good response to the post on pitchers, hitability, and BABIP when I posted it two days ago. I'll now go over some of these comments and some mistaken assumptions that I made.
The first of these assumptions was that league average BABIP is .290. I'm not sure why I was under this impression (I must have read it incorrectly somewhere), but it seems that league average BABIP is generally closer to .300. This changes a lot of what I said and a lot of the assumptions that I had made about BABIP.
After reading up on BABIP this morning at the Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and the Diamond Mine, it seems that pitchers can have an affect on how many hits they give up, but that this effect is quite small and much of this effect can be explained by their DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics - K/9, BB/9, and GB rate).
Pitchers can, in fact, affect their hits per ball in play a little bit, but at this time there is no statistic that can truly capture this skill. For now, DIPS is the best means we have of predicting future performance. Future performance can also be roughly predicted by looking at BABIPs that stray significantly from league average (such as Jason Marquis's .206 BABIP) and realizing that at some point it will regress to a point much closer to the league average.
Now we'll take a look at some of the comments people had about the previous post on this subject. One reader mentioned the exclusion of HRs and how this can skew BABIP because a lot of HRs are balls that are hit so well that they would be considered hits if left in the field of play. I can come up with a couple of reasons why I'm not overly concerned about their exclusion.
as they are more a result of a pitcher's tendency to give up The first is that HRs have a very strong correlation with Groundball rate. The more GBs a player induces, the less HRs that player should give up. (This is a subject I'll talk a little more about in the not so distant future, but this is the primary reason why I talk a lot about GB rate when analyzing pitchers.) Because this is the case, I don't really have a problem excluding HRs. I see a high HR rate as more a result of a pitcher giving up a lot of flyballs than it is of his ability to limit hits.
Roughly 90% of HRs are flyballs. If - hypothetically - the field of play were extended another couple hundred feet (and outfielders were fast enough to cover this entire area at the same efficiency they cover current outfields) these flyballs would still be caught at the same 78% that normal, non-HR flyballs are caught at now. Of course that notion is absurd, but I think it shows that HRs are mostly just farther traveling flyballs, which we've already established has a direct connection with Flyball Percentage (or Groundball Percentage, by default).
That's why we can look at BABIP and GB% separately. GB% represents how many HRs a pitcher should give up, and BABIP represents the number of non-HR hits that a pitcher has given up. Of course GB% is more stable than BABIP, and that is why HRs are easier to predict than hits and should be treated differently.
A couple of readers asked to see another list of pitchers and their career BABIPs, except this time using average and poor pitchers. It is tough to get a list of poor pitchers who have pitched for as many seasons as the guys on the previous list because if a pitcher is that bad there is little chance he will survive in the big leagues that long. Therefore, I'll give a list of some average pitchers that were able to last for a while.
Woody Williams - .285
Pat Hentgen - .288
Andy Benes - .292
Kevin Appier - .292
Hideo Nomo - .293
Denny Neagle - .295
Andy Ashby - .296
Darren Dreifort - .307
If I had swapped the names on this list with the previous one I doubt anyone would be able to tell. I think this further proves that while a pitcher may have some control over the hits he gives up, there is a lot of luck involved and DIPS is a much more effective way to analyze a pitcher's merits.
Alright, I think that's enough about that for now. Comment away on any of this stuff, and if you ever see an article that has a contradictory viewpoint feel free to bring it to my attention. The quest for knowledge is never-ending, and DIPS Theory is far from perfect, though the closest thing we have at the present time.
The first of these assumptions was that league average BABIP is .290. I'm not sure why I was under this impression (I must have read it incorrectly somewhere), but it seems that league average BABIP is generally closer to .300. This changes a lot of what I said and a lot of the assumptions that I had made about BABIP.
After reading up on BABIP this morning at the Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and the Diamond Mine, it seems that pitchers can have an affect on how many hits they give up, but that this effect is quite small and much of this effect can be explained by their DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics - K/9, BB/9, and GB rate).
Pitchers can, in fact, affect their hits per ball in play a little bit, but at this time there is no statistic that can truly capture this skill. For now, DIPS is the best means we have of predicting future performance. Future performance can also be roughly predicted by looking at BABIPs that stray significantly from league average (such as Jason Marquis's .206 BABIP) and realizing that at some point it will regress to a point much closer to the league average.
Now we'll take a look at some of the comments people had about the previous post on this subject. One reader mentioned the exclusion of HRs and how this can skew BABIP because a lot of HRs are balls that are hit so well that they would be considered hits if left in the field of play. I can come up with a couple of reasons why I'm not overly concerned about their exclusion.
as they are more a result of a pitcher's tendency to give up The first is that HRs have a very strong correlation with Groundball rate. The more GBs a player induces, the less HRs that player should give up. (This is a subject I'll talk a little more about in the not so distant future, but this is the primary reason why I talk a lot about GB rate when analyzing pitchers.) Because this is the case, I don't really have a problem excluding HRs. I see a high HR rate as more a result of a pitcher giving up a lot of flyballs than it is of his ability to limit hits.
Roughly 90% of HRs are flyballs. If - hypothetically - the field of play were extended another couple hundred feet (and outfielders were fast enough to cover this entire area at the same efficiency they cover current outfields) these flyballs would still be caught at the same 78% that normal, non-HR flyballs are caught at now. Of course that notion is absurd, but I think it shows that HRs are mostly just farther traveling flyballs, which we've already established has a direct connection with Flyball Percentage (or Groundball Percentage, by default).
That's why we can look at BABIP and GB% separately. GB% represents how many HRs a pitcher should give up, and BABIP represents the number of non-HR hits that a pitcher has given up. Of course GB% is more stable than BABIP, and that is why HRs are easier to predict than hits and should be treated differently.
A couple of readers asked to see another list of pitchers and their career BABIPs, except this time using average and poor pitchers. It is tough to get a list of poor pitchers who have pitched for as many seasons as the guys on the previous list because if a pitcher is that bad there is little chance he will survive in the big leagues that long. Therefore, I'll give a list of some average pitchers that were able to last for a while.
Woody Williams - .285
Pat Hentgen - .288
Andy Benes - .292
Kevin Appier - .292
Hideo Nomo - .293
Denny Neagle - .295
Andy Ashby - .296
Darren Dreifort - .307
If I had swapped the names on this list with the previous one I doubt anyone would be able to tell. I think this further proves that while a pitcher may have some control over the hits he gives up, there is a lot of luck involved and DIPS is a much more effective way to analyze a pitcher's merits.
Alright, I think that's enough about that for now. Comment away on any of this stuff, and if you ever see an article that has a contradictory viewpoint feel free to bring it to my attention. The quest for knowledge is never-ending, and DIPS Theory is far from perfect, though the closest thing we have at the present time.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Research Day
Hey guys. Sorry for the lack of posts today. I dedicated today to some research about hitter selectivity and related things. Made some good progress that should go towards make the 2008 projections fantastic. It could help with this season as well, but a lot of what I used was from Retrosheet. Retrosheet doesn't put out data for a particular season until a couple months after it is completed, so I'm not sure how this stuff will work for the current season. As I get near the completion of what I'm doing I'll be sure to let you all know though.
On days like this I'll try to give you guys a heads up earlier in the day.
On days like this I'll try to give you guys a heads up earlier in the day.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Andrew Miller Called Up... But Don't Rush to Your Waiver Wire
Andrew Miller has been announced by the Detroit Tigers as their starter for Friday's game after Jeremy Bonderman has been sent to the DL. Possible buy low situation with Bonderman, but I'll talk more about that later.
Miller put up an amazing 63.5% GB rate at Single A Lakeland this year, but only managed 6.52 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9 in 38.7 IP. While Miller might be good one day, I would stay away from him in redraft leagues this year. His numbers just don't look like those of a guy who is ready for the big time. Also, notice that those numbers came at Single A. Don't pick up Miller unless you are in a keeper league (in which case he might already be owned) or an extremely, extremely deep league.
Manager Jim Leyland also said Miller will be sent back down once Bonderman is ready to return.
Miller put up an amazing 63.5% GB rate at Single A Lakeland this year, but only managed 6.52 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9 in 38.7 IP. While Miller might be good one day, I would stay away from him in redraft leagues this year. His numbers just don't look like those of a guy who is ready for the big time. Also, notice that those numbers came at Single A. Don't pick up Miller unless you are in a keeper league (in which case he might already be owned) or an extremely, extremely deep league.
Manager Jim Leyland also said Miller will be sent back down once Bonderman is ready to return.
Pitchers and 'Hitability'
Today, my friend and I had a conversation that I thought might interest you guys. We were talking about pitchers and their 'hitability'. Surely you've heard someone, possibly a broadcaster, talk about how a certain pitcher is very hittable, or how another pitcher is able to prevent hits. This person, unfortunately, is misinformed.
Anyway, my friend and I were talking about whether or not pitchers can do anything to prevent hits. We know that once a ball is put into play it is out of the pitcher's control, but can a pitcher throw the ball a certain way so that when it is put into play, it is hit worse than when another pitcher allows a ball to be put into play?
My friend said that good pitchers are able to limit their hits. I said that they can't. They can help determine the type of hit it is (groundball, airball, or pop-up), but cannot determine how hard it is hit or whether it is more or less likely to become a hit. To attempt - albeit crudely - to prove my point, I looked up the career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) for some of the greatest pitchers of our generation. HRs can be prevented by pitchers (by giving up more groundballs than flyballs), but hits in the field of play - I said - cannot be prevented. Here is a list of the pitchers I looked up. Keep in mind that league average BABIP is .290, so in order for my theory to be correct each pitcher should have a BABIP close to this (it can vary slightly due to luck and a tendency to give up either more groundballs or airballs, which fall for hits at slightly different rates).
Tom Glavine - .285
Johan Santana - .287
Pedro Martinez - .287
Greg Maddux - .288
Jamie Moyer - .289
John Smoltz - .290
Al Leiter - .291
Roger Clemens - .294
Mike Mussina - .295
David Wells - .300
Randy Johnson - .301
I chose these players because they are all considered good pitchers and all pitched for a good number of years. My viewpoint states that given enough time, all pitchers will put up the league average BABIP (or the variation for a pitcher with each specific GB and FB rates). Since league average is .290, it doesn't appear that any of these guys deviate too far from it. If anything, it looks like the deviation occurs in the opposite direction expected. Randy Johnson has given up more hits on balls in play than the average pitcher.
I think that this - while crude and dealing with a very small sample size - is a pretty good indicator that pitcher's can't control how many hits he gives up. It also gives further credibility to the statistics that I stress for pitchers. Since a pitcher cannot control hits or runs, we should focus only on what he can control - Strikeouts, Walks, and Batted Ball Types. The best of these Batted Ball types is the pop-up, but because this percentage is small for all pitchers I place more emphasis on talking about Groundball Percentage. Groundballs can't be hit out of the park and can be turned more easily into double plays than flyballs despite a slightly smaller Out Percentage.
I think there is a good chance that somebody out there has already proven this point - and most likely in a more scientific way - but I found the numbers above quite interesting and wanted to share them with you. Hope you enjoyed it!
Anyway, my friend and I were talking about whether or not pitchers can do anything to prevent hits. We know that once a ball is put into play it is out of the pitcher's control, but can a pitcher throw the ball a certain way so that when it is put into play, it is hit worse than when another pitcher allows a ball to be put into play?
My friend said that good pitchers are able to limit their hits. I said that they can't. They can help determine the type of hit it is (groundball, airball, or pop-up), but cannot determine how hard it is hit or whether it is more or less likely to become a hit. To attempt - albeit crudely - to prove my point, I looked up the career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) for some of the greatest pitchers of our generation. HRs can be prevented by pitchers (by giving up more groundballs than flyballs), but hits in the field of play - I said - cannot be prevented. Here is a list of the pitchers I looked up. Keep in mind that league average BABIP is .290, so in order for my theory to be correct each pitcher should have a BABIP close to this (it can vary slightly due to luck and a tendency to give up either more groundballs or airballs, which fall for hits at slightly different rates).
Tom Glavine - .285
Johan Santana - .287
Pedro Martinez - .287
Greg Maddux - .288
Jamie Moyer - .289
John Smoltz - .290
Al Leiter - .291
Roger Clemens - .294
Mike Mussina - .295
David Wells - .300
Randy Johnson - .301
I chose these players because they are all considered good pitchers and all pitched for a good number of years. My viewpoint states that given enough time, all pitchers will put up the league average BABIP (or the variation for a pitcher with each specific GB and FB rates). Since league average is .290, it doesn't appear that any of these guys deviate too far from it. If anything, it looks like the deviation occurs in the opposite direction expected. Randy Johnson has given up more hits on balls in play than the average pitcher.
I think that this - while crude and dealing with a very small sample size - is a pretty good indicator that pitcher's can't control how many hits he gives up. It also gives further credibility to the statistics that I stress for pitchers. Since a pitcher cannot control hits or runs, we should focus only on what he can control - Strikeouts, Walks, and Batted Ball Types. The best of these Batted Ball types is the pop-up, but because this percentage is small for all pitchers I place more emphasis on talking about Groundball Percentage. Groundballs can't be hit out of the park and can be turned more easily into double plays than flyballs despite a slightly smaller Out Percentage.
I think there is a good chance that somebody out there has already proven this point - and most likely in a more scientific way - but I found the numbers above quite interesting and wanted to share them with you. Hope you enjoyed it!
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